Unfortunately, the bolded part is not correct. It does not average out during a single fight. That's why you have that stupidly large spread for Outlaw in sims. And ultimately, that's the root of the issue we're having now. Blizzard reacted to "what could be possible" with Outlaw at the top end (i.e. one or two sixers in a fight or constantly three) and nerfed correspondingly. They didn't take into account the impact on the average, though, and therefore you're just not competitive at the moment with average luck in rolling.