Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Typhoria]

20% of healing on Il'gynoth
22% of healing on Nythendra
17% of healing on Xavius

Grats you got one right, it was only 4% on dragons.

If we switch to Mythic from heroic, then Dragons % gos up and Nythendra % go's down. The rest are pretty universal.

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Except no one is saying it's strong for saving healer mana. People are saying it's strong for saving you when you screw up. Much like the reasons you used to bring disc priests before this expansion even when their raw HPS was lower then other healers. Absorbs save lives and save wipes.

It's literally adding 250k effective health(or more like 425k if a tank) to you any time you don't take damage for 4 seconds, every 30 seconds. If you don't understand the value of that you probably don't raid lead or understand why you wipe 40 times on a hard boss before downing it.

You are a tank. During a tank swap, there is a good chance YOU have an absorb shield from another class or if you have Soul Barrier. Your shield will reapply more frequently than a DPS who would mainly get spot heals.

Huge difference between the neck and a Disc priest. The neck isn't reliable, the priest absorb was. For DPS the neck is complete shit. There has yet to be any incident where the shield saved me from death.

[apples]

i heard that legendary drop rate is random

that means that its impossible to tell when youre going to get one.

just like coin flips

theres literally no way to know the odds of getting heads on a coinflip

-this thread

good data though, its especially nice to know that, to the RNG crowd, the data and drop rate never mattered in the first place.

[Tech614]

You are a tank. During a tank swap, there is a good chance YOU have an absorb shield from another class or if you have Soul Barrier. Your shield will reapply more frequently than a DPS who would mainly get spot heals.

In case you don't realize, tanks take all the same raid wide damage everyone else takes. No there isn't any absorbs in the raid period(MW, HPriest, Resto Druid, Resto Sham) and no I don't talent the shit tier talent known as Soul Barier. You made 3 excuses, and you struck out son.

Huge difference between the neck and a Disc priest. The neck isn't reliable, the priest absorb was. For DPS the neck is complete shit. There has yet to be any incident where the shield saved me from death.

Yes because I'm sure you went back through all your logs where you didn't die to confirm this

[Typhoria]

In case you don't realize, tanks take all the same raid wide damage everyone else takes. No there isn't any absorbs in the raid period(MW, HPriest, Resto Druid, Resto Sham) and no I don't talent the shit tier talent known as Soul Barier. You tried to make 3 excuses, and you struck out son.

Yes because I'm sure you went back through all your logs where you didn't die to confirm this

Are you done with the passive aggression? A full shield on me as a DPS ilvl 866, is ~321k. Its not near enough to save anyone from a huge screw up. The only lethal instant damage is getting double charged by Ursoc, and the shield won't save you from that. If you still can't understand that it doesn't help a dps under non-wipe situations, that's your problem.

[Deleted]

The neck is so undervalued it's hilarious. It can prevent death several times in an encounter, it could save you 200 wipes in Mythic progress. It's a very good second Legendary for an entire raid team to use IMO.

But but my phat deepz???

[vaestmannaeyjar]

My post had nothing to do with which content is better to farm for them. it was regarding the point that "Pure" RNG in a computer system being is actually predictable with enough time and data. Even without the information in the spreadsheet it should have been plainly obvious that the harder the content the better the probability of getting a drop.

Computers nowadays are able to output enough numbers that the effect si so close to randomness it doesn't matter. The "with enough time and data" part doesn't really matter if it requires you 3 milleniums and more data than the universe can contain to predict it.

[apples]

Computers nowadays are able to output enough numbers that the effect si so close to randomness it doesn't matter. The "with enough time and data" part doesn't really matter if it requires you 3 milleniums and more data than the universe can contain to predict it.

if you flip a 2 sided coin

is the outcome random?

[isaac2314]

First, let me thank you for putting together all this data. It was probably a considerable time sink, and it would be impolite to not at least appreciate the effort.

Now, I'd venture to guess that what most people actually want to know is simple: what are the droprates for legendaries in any given activity? It doesn't even have to be a good one - as long as people don't criticize it too much and have there be much room for doubt, people can play the game in relatively better states of mind, knowing that the activity they do have a roughly measurable possibility of giving them the holy grail.
The (roughly) 2% drop rate in mythic+ is a good example, although I agree that it is probably overestimated. Therefore I'd humbly plead you, if you have the time, to make more analyses on this direction - say, for instance, the droprate per LFR/Normal/Heroic boss kill or 5H completion.

I'd suggest that you calculate the chance of a legendary drop either per normal loot drop or per boss kill. I don't really understand the activity feed, but using the loot acquisition from the feed runs into the problem that people sell or DE what they don't need, and those pieces don't show up. You can either use the event feed as it is, and call your percentage "Legendary droprate per piece of upgrade" (assuming people only keep things that are upgrades, which is sometimes false, but it's an estimate) or arbitrarily decide the ratio of upgrades to non-upgrades, and modify your legendary droprate accordingly.

Now all this is pretty much assuming the bad luck protection doesn't exist, which is fine by me - in the frame of a single week I wouldn't expect the protection to add up to anything significant. Besides, it's a pain to calculate it anyway. We don't even know if it increases by each loot drop, by each instance completion or by each daily reset.

.....But honestly, the droprates of each type of activity is probably soul-crushingly low either way. It is better to know roughly how low, but I've given up hope of getting any long ago ever since they refused to add a Blood Shard-type currency. I'd say you lot should, too.

[Tech614]

Are you done with the passive aggression? A full shield on me as a DPS ilvl 866, is ~321k. Its not near enough to save anyone from a huge screw up. The only lethal instant damage is getting double charged by Ursoc, and the shield won't save you from that. If you still can't understand that it doesn't help a dps under non-wipe situations, that's your problem.

So every time someone dies they get overkilled by over 322k or more. Cool story bro. If you honestly think a double charge is the only thing that can kill you in EN you have no idea what anything in the raid is doing and certainly haven't done mythic. Hell we had to sit an 862 dps on mythic ursoc weeks 1-2 because the charge was a 50% chance to 1 shot him. Not understanding the value of effective health and using it as an excuse to cry that you didn't get a legendary that increases your dps by some mythical number. Want some more cheese with that wine or are we done here?

[kennytheone]

So far i didn't find any legendary on my main (ilvl 858 dh alliance) then i made a dk on horde side on another server...first thing i did when i dinged 110 i went to whotered jom and got legendary ring..,question is...is this bad luck protection account wide?

[apples]

So far i didn't find any legendary on my main (ilvl 858 dh alliance) then i made a dk on horde side on another server...first thing i did when i dinged 110 i went to whotered jom and got legendary ring..,question is...is this bad luck protection account wide?

if it was

theres no way to tell whether you got legendary because of bad luck protection or not

[DrMcNinja]

The neck is so undervalued it's hilarious. It can prevent death several times in an encounter, it could save you 200 wipes in Mythic progress. It's a very good second Legendary for an entire raid team to use IMO.

And then it sims lower than my other neck. If you can survive on your own the neck is useless.

[XDurionX]

Thanks for the effort. Hope this will end the "RNG is still broken" shit. But who am i kidding.

[Deleted]

You're wrong. With a big enough dataset you can determine drop chances in mythic, mythic+, heroics, WQ caches and other places. This may help people who are trying to farm for a legendary.

Heres the thing: with the increasing chance per activity you cant determine what activity has the highest base chance solely based on what was presented in the starting post.

[vaestmannaeyjar]

if you flip a 2 sided coin

is the outcome random?

No. It will land on the side dictated by the law of physics according to the strength it was flipped. We view it as random because we can't guess. Same for the lottery. It's not random, but there are so many parameters we can't do the needed calculations to get it right.
-Time of opening the recipients
-Velocity of the wheel
-External gravity influences
-Ball interactions with each other (ie, "bumping")

None of that is random, but we just can't calculate it.

[apples]

No. It will land on the side dictated by the law of physics according to the strength it was flipped. We view it as random because we can't guess. Same for the lottery. It's not random, but there are so many parameters we can't do the needed calculations to get it right.
-Time of opening the recipients
-Velocity of the wheel
-External gravity influences
-Ball interactions with each other (ie, "bumping")

None of that is random, but we just can't calculate it.

mm mm mmm thats some good willful ignorance

[Magemaer]

No. It will land on the side dictated by the law of physics according to the strength it was flipped. We view it as random because we can't guess. Same for the lottery. It's not random, but there are so many parameters we can't do the needed calculations to get it right.
-Time of opening the recipients
-Velocity of the wheel
-External gravity influences
-Ball interactions with each other (ie, "bumping")

None of that is random, but we just can't calculate it.

People seem to always confuse what randomness is. There no randomness in anything. No physical or mental phenomena is random. There is only randomness in our analysis trying to predict behaviors whose variables we don't completely control.

Randomness is in the reading not in the thing.

[Akka]

Each time I read a thread with statistics in it, I know I'll cringe reading tools with absolutely no clue about them making all kind of idiotic statements based on their lack of grasp.
Well, at least good job OP for actual relevant data. Now let's the cringe begins.

[Deleted]

if you flip a 2 sided coin

is the outcome random?

With a guildie we recieved 3 times the same world drop out of one huge mob during WoTLK, so WoW RNG has in some sort an abuseable RNG if you actually manage to find out the variables.
A different game I played recently before Legion uses a kill-counter on each mob per zone for guaranteed drops, eg every 1.000th kill for yield a specific drop to whomever had the killing blow.

[pucca]

since nearly all of those characters got their legendaries in raids (unless i'm misinterpreting the last part), drop chance based on raid difficulty would be interesting too.