Trump just pissed off Beijing in a major way

[Dsc]

Well when some of us come across a beehive we don't rush to stick our dick in it.

He just grabbed it by the Pussy is all. footsying around Taiwan since 1979 on Bejiings behalf is complete weakness and wrong.

Trump obviously is sending a clear message, and is upfront.

[Nadiru]

What's China going to do? Blow up its 'renegade province'? Do some naval deployments in the South Asia Sea? If the PLAN wants to start shit, well, they're really not in the position they need to be to start shit. They might be in a decade if the US really doesn't actually get its shit together and modernize, but at present they're even less ready than the post-sequester Navy is.

[Skroe]

I don't want to leave the WTO. But it should be made clear that if we don't get what we want, it's on the table.

It should never be on the table. It's a fundamentally stupid strategy. It's one of those quintisentially American feel good manuevers that makes us feel tough but is strategically moronic. The WTO will continue to exist without the US, and the US will fail to create an alternative to it, and because everybody else in the world is subject to the WTO, the US, by virtue of trading with the rest of the world, would be indirectly subject to it without a voice.

The smart strategy is to be aggressive/disruptive in the WTO. Namely, the US has a pretty solid bloc with the EU and Japan. It needs to actually use that block to push for aggressive countermeasures versus China. But again, the way you pose it is bizarre. The WTO isn't at fault in the slightest. American policy makers and elected officials are legitimately, the only people at fault. Because they have a choice whether to use the WTO mechanisms or not, and we have consistently chosen to play softball with Chin and we always create a new excuse to do so.

The problem isn't some distant "globalist" organization or China. It's American policy on how to actually use it's levers as power. Early on, I was attracted to Trump briefly (for about 3 weeks) as a candidate because what he said about how the "other side" brings out their "killers" and we bring our "idiots" is actually, absolutely accurate, and that needs to change.

America is a superpower... but institutionally an extremely reluctant one. The Clinton Administration tried to avoid triumphalism. The Bush Administration after 2004 tried to avoid upsetting anybody else over anything. The Obama Administration bought into American declinism and created new fanciful justifications for how America "can't do X anymore, alone" , mostly because he didn't give a rats ass about foreign concerns and didn't want to spend money on it. Our foreign friends here may find that surprising, but the gulf between what America COULD do an what it DOES do is immense. It's a gulf a light year wide.

The American axiom of "talk softly and carry a big stick" has been perverted to "don't talk at all, because you might offend, and don't take care of your stick, because it's pretty embarassing you have one in the first place". Jenean Kirkpatrick in the early 1990s crystalized this quite well: essentially the American political establishment has long been basically embarassed at having to have nuclear weapons, at having to create and manage the liberal democratic capitalist order, at having to have standing alliances. The norm for us, as they have long saw it, is based around global trade where America is just a "normal" country. Elements of this continue today - the US is about to drop $1 trillion on a new generation of nuclear weapons.... where is the public debate?

The point is, there is not a realm of American power that this country has either adequately maintained or adequately utilized. It's been, at best, half measures... more often quarter measures or no-measures. There is really no difference between the Obama Administration's failure to fight China properly at the WTO and the Bush Administration dividing Europe (stupidly) into "Old Europe" and "New Europe". Both reflect a profound misunderstanding about the importance of nurturing and utilizing power.

What you're essentially asking for then, which may surprise you, is for superpower America to actually act like a superpower. That's been my position for years. But real superpowers pick their battles and fight with their brains.

EDIT: A question. What, precisely, has you so utterly convinced of the unvarnished benefits of free trade? As far as I can see, it virtually guarantees that the working class of developed nations are fcked by competing with slave labor wages in other nations.

Globally, free market capitalism and the expansion of trade has raised the standard of living for more people in more places, faster, than at any other point in human history. Capitalism and Democracy are intrinsically linked (don't let Russia and China fool you... those are just slow burns). People making money will lead to a growing middle class, that will invariably want a say in how their tax dollars are being spent. That's the speed version of it. Global Trade is the glue of the international liberal order that is the legacy of winning the largest war in the history of man, and the Cold War. The end of free trade would see, as we're seeing now, Democracy in retreat and the rise of authoritarianism, as country's became more dependent on domestic solutions. THe "Democratic Peace Theory", while not a fulproof theory, is still more right than wrong, and economics plays a key role in that. Trade barriers going up will lead, directly or indirectly, to the next major war.

So at the highest level, I see it as an essential part in answering the question of "how shall man live?". If man is to live free... ALL human beings, not just Americans... then free trade is an essential component in an organized system that perpetuates that freedom.

At a finer resolution, I see no difference in protecting the historic factory job as I do protecting the traditional family farm. Both are elements of our history. Both have been gradually depreciated by new technology and new means of production. I see a blue collar lifestyle, ultimately, as something to be surpassed, not held on to. Freezing the American economy in time will doom us to decline.

Furthermore, the vast majority of employment in this country is in small businesses (95%) and in the service sector (about 80%). Low wages there have little to nothing to do with free trade, rather a low demand for specific skills in the domestic service industry. Retreating from free trade will do absolutely nothing to address low wages for this, 80% of all workers.

[Matchles]

What's China going to do? Blow up its 'renegade province'? Do some naval deployments in the South Asia Sea? If the PLAN wants to start shit, well, they're really not in the position they need to be to start shit. They might be in a decade if the US really doesn't actually get its shit together and modernize, but at present they're even less ready than the post-sequester Navy is.

Hurt us economically. Stop buying U.S. cars and Apple products, tell Boeing to take a hike and order from Airbus, close manufacturing factories that are U.S. based, stop any enforcement of U.S. intellectual property claims, etc. etc. etc. Remove half a trillion from our economy and tell me everything will be fine.

[Espe]

I voted for him, so I guess that makes me a low information idiot.

Hey, you said it. Trump did take a huge lead with uneducated voters, I believe on election night it was up to 19 points. That's quite a coalition he managed to build

[Daedius]

China will implode with violence before it will explode.

Caused by all its sexually frustrated men that can't pair up with a woman because of the big gender imbalance of its population no doubt...

[Belize]

Trump hasn't been attending them. Pence has.

There were multiple articles about this last week.

I've always said Trump wasn't actually the President, and that it was others around him doing his job.

Eh.

[Underverse]

I'm no fan of Trump, but I welcome increased ties with Taiwan. They are independent, and China needs to realize this and get over it.

[Macaquerie]

Hurt us economically. Stop buying U.S. cars and Apple products, tell Boeing to take a hike and order from Airbus, close manufacturing factories that are U.S. based, stop any enforcement of U.S. intellectual property claims, etc. etc. etc. Remove half a trillion from our economy and tell me everything will be fine.

I think we all know the end to this story. Sure, we would all be hypothetically willing to pay higher prices for American made products to bring jobs home, but how many people are actually going to stick by that claim once they actually have to back it up with action?

[Pterodactylus]

I'm no fan of Trump, but I welcome increased ties with Taiwan. They are independent, and China needs to realize this and get over it.

http://www.cfr.org/china/joint-commu...ons-1979/p8452

The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.

[Berengil]

So at the highest level, I see it as an essential part in answering the question of "how shall man live?". If man is to live free... ALL human beings, not just Americans... then free trade is an essential component in an organized system that perpetuates that freedom.

I suppose that's where you and I part company in our opinions. I do not care for using my taxes and the blood of US servicemen and women in some project to democratize the world. I am primarily concerned with ourselves. W's " The survival and success of freedom at home depends increasingly on the survival and success of freedom abroad" is crap.

I prefer " She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." --- Pres. John Quincy Adams

This is not inconsistent with how I said we should confront China. Taiwanese independence ( IMO) is of no significance to the US. But the situation is an opportunity to demonstrate that when the US does make a pronouncement on such matters, that is our final word.

Roman emperors would sell their souls to have wielded the power the US possesses. They would be utterly baffled by our unwillingness to use it to establish a reputation.

[truckboattruck]

ya well they need to be a little pissed off

[Skroe]

@Skroe: I do dearly love reading your posts when you talk about space and/or the military. But, for the love of God, can you not see that lots of the people who voted for Trump did so for the same reason I voted for Sanders? That reason being to hell with job-killing free trade with 3rd world shtholes who pay slave wages that Americans would laugh at if offered. Sanders has even said that while he will oppose Trump on issues they differ on, he will support him on jobs and trade.

Trump said at his speech at the Carrier plant that he will be using "sticks" to go along with the "carrots" like the ones he gave Carrier. I think his words were something like " There will be consequences for companies that kill jobs in the US, ship them overseas, and then try to sell those products in the US."

And on that, if he follows through, he has my absolute 100% support.

And it's a fantasy man. It's looking for others to blame. It's the classic case of looking for a simple explanation for a complex problem.

80 of US private sector employment is in the service sector. The service sector is only extremely marginally effected by free trade with other countries.

Furthermore 99.7% of firms are small businesses, employing 89% of Americans and 64% of new jobs since 1993 are small business (less than 500 people). 86% of employers have less than 20 workers. 52% of these businesses are homebase. This is how Americans put food on the table.

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/fi..._Sept_2012.pdf

The closing of factories, the end of 1000 full-time jobs in this country (out of 123 million) is tragic for the people involved, but is a rounding error in the big picture, and that does matter because policy is about big picture - most good for the most people. Some will be left behind. That is the nature of things.

Bringing factory jobs back to America is a fools errand in the end. Automation, as has been discussed before, is demolishing those jobs in Asia, and will do the same here. The service sector is far more immune to that.

I get why some Americans voted for Trump. But on the basis of the facts, that doesn't make them any more right than the people who voted for Trump because they (wrongly) consider ISIS / radical islam an existential threat to the US and want Trump to send the 4th Infantry division to crush it.

Moreover I'm deeply disturbed by the implications of an America that turns away from the meritocracy we've attempted build over the last 30 years. Nobody should want their child to work a factor just like they did. They should want them to become a software engineer and create the next killer app. Or start a new business that goes public. The America of Bernie Sanders and of the people who voted for Trump because they feel left behind is devoid of ambition and embraces mediocrity (remember Trump's "I Love the uneducated, as if that is something to be proud of"). I get the push back against "elitism", but again, the people feeling that way are dead wrong for thinking like that. What is the essence of the "land of opportunity" with our bootstraps national mythology if in the end, one does not "become" the elite themselves?

It comes down to what kind of country you want. I refuse to accept a mediocre one. One built around the average. We should do whatever it takes to ensure the mediocre, the average, have every avenue for advancement. But locking in "the way things are" and becoming so risk adverse we fear radical technological and economic change is ultimately self defeating, and we'll be alone in the world for doing it. To put it another way, right now a good chunk of the world works for Americans. If we went down the Bernie Sanders route, in a few decades time, we'll be working for them. And they will be living better than us.

[Saucexorzski]

So if this is what we are going to call a "major fuck up" for him, i cant wait to see what its like when he really does do something..you know ..bad.

[The One Percent]

Well when some of us come across a beehive we don't rush to stick our dick in it.

If talking with Taiwan is what puts the US in war with China, then it was inevitable. The US has no need to suck their dicks.

[Super Kami Dende]

Oh no, one leader spoke to another leader!

THE WORLD IS ENDING AS WE KNOW IT!!!

Wait no, seems like the Usual anti-Trump hyperbole.

[Cthulhu 2020]

(1) As I said, I underestimated the backwardness of the working class in three key states. I won't make that mistake again. Hillary Clinton still won more votes by far. But that said, that's not how we choose the President. Silly me for thinking that might translate into electoral votes.

I regret nothing.

(2) Trump... 'winning'... ehhhh it depends on your perspective. He's worth $3.7 billion. A billionaire sure, but he's been one for decades and it's barely moved. And it's been mostly in real estate and hotels. Meanwhile his contemporaries became five to twenty times richer in the three tech booms and three major financial booms that Trump has lived through since 1980. While his contemporaries create new financial instruments or invest in Uber, Microsoft and Amazon, Trump has tried rather pedestrian ways of expanding his wealth.

That is to say, Trump 'wins' at the very narrow set of things he's good at. But compared to his peers, he's been a rather unremarkable billionaire who has achieved surprisingly little by comparison despite being 'on the scene' for decades. He's great at Hotels and Real Estate for certain clientel. But at 70 years old, the question should be asked, why isn't he worth five to ten times as much?

That may seem ridiculous, but consider, Bill Gates is worth $80 billion... much of that early wealth was Microsoft stock of course, but that was decades ago. he's long since parlayed that into highly diversified holdings. Modern Bill Gates is worth $80 billion not because of Microsoft, but because of his investments. He used money to make more money.

Trump loves to spin the tale of how he's one of America's most successful businessmen. He's not. He's worth as much as Steven Spielberg. He's worth less than a guy who started a pet food company. He's a successful man, but his contemporaries simply did a lot more than he ever did, when it came to turning wealth into more wealth. While he was starting Trump ties and Trump suits, they were investing in start-ups. That tells you something about Donald Trump as a person. He's a man without a shred of imagination.

You should read a bit more into Trump's history Skroe. If it weren't for daddy Trump bailing him out several times, and banks giving him loans that he never once paid back, Trump would be a nothing right now. I'd suggest starting with a little documentary called "Trump: What's the Deal?" It was finished in 1991 in a series of documentaries about billionaires, and it was the most scathing one, pointing out how close he was to politicians, how much his bullying had failed and he had to bend over and take it in the ass, and how much of a failure of a businessman he truly is. It was never really seen because it was only released on VHS in very limited quantities. Trump threatened to sue any network that aired it, so rather than jumping into a litigious nightmare, they all just decided to say fuck it.

Also, as to your reply to me, it's always a pleasure to read the thoughts of a true conservative. Keep up the good work.

[Felya]

I prefer " She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." --- Pres. John Quincy Adams

How long did a message take to reach China now and then? By doing what you are suggesting, we are shooting our selfs in the foot.

Roman emperors would sell their souls to have wielded the power the US possesses. They would be utterly baffled by our unwillingness to use it to establish a reputation.

Uhm... the response to the Roman Empire should be, wait till you see what happens to you, because of your influence. The dollar is the default economy of the world. If Roman Empire realized that power, you'd be still wearing a toga.

[corebit]

Jimmy Carter's stupid move to break relations with Taiwan and recognize the "One-China" policy is what made China into the economic powerhouse it is today. With every succeeding president that continues to parrot this mantra, the more power they cede to China. Trump's tweet can be considered reckless, but Clinton would have simply continued Obama's incompetent policy towards China.

[minteK917]

South park has already explained this last episode, so im gona say the story is too late.