Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, says AI

[Independent voter]

It doesn't say that this AI predicted the Trump win, if it had I would say it was more credible. Just because something is an AI doesn't mean its better at picking winners than the average human.






http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/marin...kant-says.html

Marine Le Pen is on course to be the next president of France, according to one fund manager's big-data analysis.

Arun Kant, chief executive and chief investment officer at Singapore-based investing firm Leonie Hill Capital, told CNBC he expected the right-wing populist to prevail thanks to his firm's proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) system's analysis of troves of data.

His analysis — which he said incorporates inputs such as social and traditional media discussions, polling, economics and demographics — predicts that Le Pen will "walk over" her opponents in the first electoral test and then prove most forecasters wrong and steal the lead in the second ballot, Kant said.

The French vote is split into two phases, with the top two candidates from the April 23 round due to face each other in a second run-off on May 7. In the running alongside 48-year old Le Pen are former economy minister and independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, conservative ex-prime minister Francois Fillon and socialist Benoit Hamon.

Kant's AI program predicts that Le Pen would take 28 percent of the vote in the first round, he said, which would best 16.4 percent for Fillon, and 19 to 20 percent for Macron.

Current inputs are pointing to a Macron victory in the second round — 52.3 percent to 47.7 for Le Pen — Kant said, but he added that he expects the right-wing politician to gain considerable ground after a first round victory.

"If she wins the first round, this dynamic will change," he said, noting the similarities between the populist appeal of Le Pen and President Donald Trump.

And with this predicted momentum, Le Pen will likely win the presidency, Kant said.

An IFOP poll published on Feb. 14 placed Le Pen in the lead for the April 23 ballot, with around 25.5 percent of the vote. Most election-watchers expect, however, that Le Pen would lose the second round of voting to Macron.

In fact, Kant said his AI analysis predicted that the only way Macron could win is if some unexpected factor were to pull undecided voters in his favor.

Le Pen, a former attorney, is leader of the French National Front (FN), a right-wing political party founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. And this isn't the first time she's run for the country's top job. In the 2012 election, she won 17.9 percent of the vote in the first round, a record result for the FN, but failed to enter the second round.

Her policies mirror those of Trump's—she is a fierce critic of open borders and free trade. Like the White House chief, she also believes in nationalism and economic protectionism, having vowed to pull France out of the European Union.

Announcing her candidacy for the French presidency in a strident speech earlier this month in Lyon, Le Pen told supporters that European "borders have been erased and our countries have become station concourses."

"What is at stake in this election ... is whether France can still be a free nation," Le Pen said at that rally, according to Reuters. "The divide is not between the left and right any more but between patriots and globalists."

Kant declined to share his investing plans around his Le Pen projection, but he did explain that he expected her victory to mean the beginning of the end of the European Union. And with that, he said, currencies around the world will see massive fluctuations and "it may lead to a financial crisis much sooner than anyone thinks."

Still, Kant's prediction of a Le Pen victory is definitely not the consensus call.

As of Tuesday, betting markets implied about a 30 percent chance of Le Pen winning the presidency.

The bulk of strategists said they believe she can reach the second round, but will struggle to cross the 50 percent threshold needed to become president. Given the sheer unpredictability of recent political events like Brexitand Trump'srise to power, however, several experts told CNBC that anything was possible.

There is a chance she could win the presidency, said Simon Baptist, global chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"Le Pen has taken care to present herself as a candidate with reasonable views, which has helped her to push the National Front from the fringes to the mainstream. Recent events, such as the refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, and the rise of populist leaders elsewhere, have also played into her hands."


A poll by French newspaper Le Figaro indicated the French were more pessimistic about globalization than other countries — sentiments that may play into Le Pen's hands.

"The day before the U.S. election, pollsters gave Trump a 1.6 percent chance of victory, so while I wouldn't consider a Le Pen victory a baseline scenario, I wouldn't count her out," said Tony Nash, managing partner and chief economist of Complete Intelligence.

While Le Pen's controversial views have only appealed to a minority of voters thus far, many have warned that her popularity could swell if rival parties fall prey to more scandals. Allegations emerged last month that Fllion's wife was paid for a fake job; the 62-year old candidate has so far rejected the claims.

Markets, analysts said, are acknowledging the chances of a victory for the French right-wing.

"I think the market is telling us a clear message that investors are finally waking up to the risk of a Le Pen win," Callum Henderson, head of global markets research for the Eurasia Group, told CNBC in an email. He pointed to the the Bund-OAT spread's beginning to "widen out sharply," and France's CAC 40 index "significantly" underperforming Germany's DAX index.

And then there are others who adamantly rule out the prospect of a Le Pen presidency.

"Based on all the polls, as well as the polarization in France, she has virtually no chance," warned Cas Mudde, associate professor at the University of Georgia. "People argue she can win because they doubt the polls after Brexit and Trump. However, in both cases the margins were much smaller than between Le Pen and Macron or Fillon."

If Le Pen were to win, Henderson said, "markets would riot" because of her comments on France leaving the European Union. Still, he added, her rhetoric might not accurately reflect what would happen in the country.

"It is highly questionable whether she would be able to (initiate a French exit from the EU or the euro) if she did win because parliament would not likely pass much ideas, but the initial market reaction would be very volatile and very negative," Henderson said.

[Crispin]

Le Pen has 1 thing going for her, recent wrong polls on Brexit and Trump, she's got several things going against her, namely Brexit and Trump, I don't see the majority of the French voters buying into Brexit and Trump as something they'd like to achieve. The 25ish % she'd get in the first round, still means that more than 25% of the people who voted on the other more rational candidates, would have to choose the Daughter of the founder of FN, who called the Holocaust a mere "detail" of history, add the current situation where the EU caught Front National (among other European right wing parties) cheating with the EU fonding they can apply for, so a party that accuses the EU for stealing money from their members, is cheating to get money from them....

Anything can happen, but I don't view the French as hostile towards the EU as the UK was/is, and Marine Le Pen is not the only candidate who's having a critical view on immigration.

[Estherna]

As a French, I absolutely don't believe she will be elected as President in the next months, because of our presidential election system.

Front National appears strong in France, but it's an illusion: they are so high because their electoral basis is mobilized, much more than any other parties in our country. Indeed, she gets 25-26% of voters in the first turn, but that her maximum extend. And among those that vote for her, there is a certain part that doesn't really want her to be President but wants to give a warning to the rest of the political class.

As there is two turns, there is no chance that she can be elected on a vast demobilization of the voters. In any scenarios there, she would have to win in a duel against a more traditional party, and as of today, it's impossible.

And even if by a strange turn of events, she managed to win the election, she would have a lot of troubles to rule the country, as her party doesn't have the territorial implementation to even hope to win a majority at the National Assembly. And without that, she can't do anything (the French President don't have any rights of veto on decisions made by the Assembly. The only power he have is to dissolve it to provoke new elections. But in this situation, it would be useless). And a President without the Assembly can't do anything other than blocking the decisions and stale the country. Something that would be very impopular very quick.

So, even if as today, it's totaly impossible to predict who is going to win those elections (I put my bet on Macron thought), there is close to no chances of Marine le Pen to become President.

[Deletedaccount1]

Fillon seems like he's just going to sweep it.

[Flarelaine]

Anything can happen, but I don't view the French as hostile towards the EU as the UK was/is, and Marine Le Pen is not the only candidate who's having a critical view on immigration.

I feel much the same. The Britons were just coopted into the EU, but the French built it, arguably more than anyone.

[May90]

"Current inputs are pointing to a Macron victory in the second round — 52.3 percent to 47.7 for Le Pen — Kant said, but he added that he expects the right-wing politician to gain considerable ground after a first round victory."

So, no, the AI says that Macron will be France's next president, not Le Pen.

[Deleted]

If you see the mess in some French cities first hand you will understand why she will have a good chance to win.

And like others said, she is riding the same wave as Trump and the Brexit campaign. Europeans are tired and fed up with the current status quo and aren't afraid to vote for something outside of their usual comfort zone anymore.

[Nathreim]

I have more faith in the Monkey King's opinion.

[tankbug]

I wonder if the terrorists are smart enough to know that it's not the violence they do that really hurt the country, but the right-wing reaction from their attacks that does the real damage.

[May90]

I wonder if the terrorists are smart enough to know that it's not the violence they do that really hurt the country, but the right-wing reaction from their attacks that does the real damage.

Of course they understand that, that's what their attacks have been all about. Terrorism has been developed and perfected for thousands years, they've learned to hit the core of the society with their actions.

I don't think they can take down France though. So far their only successes have been Trump and Brexit; Brexit is something that has been brewing since long before the refugee crisis and the terrorist attacks, and it doesn't seem like Trump will remain in the White House for long.

[Erwarth]

Last time the FN went to the second round, it went like this :

[Deleted]

Le Penn will win it's so obvious.

[Crispin]

Le Penn will win it's so obvious.

Would love to see you explain why it's so obvious.

[Deleted]

For the same reasons brexit or Trump won

[Cizr]

That would be great. Next the guy in Netherlands needs to win. Too bad about Hofer in Austria tho. Maybe together they can still stop madmen in EU from destroying their countries.

[Deleted]

For the same reasons brexit or Trump won

I don't necessarily think those two things happening will also mean that Le Pen will win the French election. France is neither the UK nor the US.

Take Austria, for example, which had a presidential election back in December. The right wing candidate Hofer was considered the favourite, especially so close after Trump's victory, which was supposed to give him a boost in votes. He didn't.

[Deleted]

I wonder if the terrorists are smart enough to know that it's not the violence they do that really hurt the country, but the right-wing reaction from their attacks that does the real damage.

Of course they are, they've even openly said that their absolute best friend in the whole world is the far right that drives muslims to join them.

- - - Updated - - -

That would be great. Next the guy in Netherlands needs to win. Too bad about Hofer in Austria tho. Maybe together they can still stop madmen in EU from destroying their countries.

It fascinates me how two people can have such different views on reality. The real madmen are on the far right.

[Blobfish]

Send in the Marine (s)
ooh Ahh

[Deleted]

I don't necessarily think those two things happening will also mean that Le Pen will win the French election. France is neither the UK nor the US.

Take Austria, for example, which had a presidential election back in December. The right wing candidate Hofer was considered the favourite, especially so close after Trump's victory, which was supposed to give him a boost in votes. He didn't.

France has more immigrants and also more Muslims (4% vs 8% according to wikipedia), than means more effectiveness of Le Pen message.

[Vankrys]

Le Pen is the protest vote. It's the vote you cast (or say you intend to cast in polls) to manifest you discontent to the curent political leader and the opposition. However, no one in France believe in her domestic, foreign and economic policies. No one believe she will make a good president. She is having outrageous speech and appropriate every and any event against domestic national security to further her agenda. Her father had made many pro nazi comments in the past, and shrug the extermination camp as and i quote "a detail of history". This didn't go well with the French as you can imagine, and she had to distance herself from her father, but at the point, for the French, Le Pen is "personna non grata" at the elysée (the french white house)

The best she can achieve is going on 2nd round. At which point, the electors from both the right and the left will unify against her and for whoever candidate is facing her.

Let it be said, Le Pen and the Front National does not carry french ideal of liberté, égalité and especially not fraternité. She is an extremist, and to think she would be commander in chief of one of the most powerful army in the world, with nuclear arsenal at her fingertip, is both frightning and unthinkable.

France is a very social country, with strong belief in social protection like unenployment insurance, free education, accessible for all healthcare system . Even the governement from the right is having what would some consider leftist social policy. Not the left nor the right want to repeal the social security (obamacare times 10), free public secular education, minimum income to survive.