The UK could be a “serious competitor” to Switzerland as a low-tax business location in a post-Brexit world, the Swiss finance minister has said.
The UK could “develop very positively” outside the EU, Ueli Maurer told the Financial Times in an interview. Switzerland would also benefit from Brexit by gaining an ally outside the EU but might find the UK challenging its attractive corporate tax regime, he said.
Mr Maurer also predicted the EU would have to bow to voter concerns in many countries and allow
more curbs on free movement of people. While not an EU member, Switzerland abides by bloc rules that enshrine free movement.
“The free movement of people is an issue that the EU has to solve. They have to give countries more freedom, I believe, otherwise it could break up over this [issue] . . . The pressure is growing and so the EU will have to make certain concessions in favour of the member states,” he said.
Mr Maurer’s upbeat comments on Brexit contrasted with warnings by other European leaders about its potential costs and could provide comfort for Brexit supporters who regard Switzerland as a possible model for the UK outside the EU. Britain is set formally to trigger its two-year EU exit negotiations on Wednesday.
“The UK has lots of advantages and if they are used cleverly to decouple from the EU, as well as the new freedom in a good bilateral relationship, then the
UK could develop very positively — I’m convinced of that,” Mr Maurer said.
Like the UK, Switzerland is strong in financial services and higher education, noted Mr Maurer, a prominent politician with the ultra-conservative Swiss People’s party (SVP). “That is perhaps the chance — that we have a partner in the same position, which on important issues is close to us.”
Since the second world war, Switzerland has attracted international businesses with special tax perks. Under pressure from other countries to end unfair practices, it agreed to move to a system under which all companies paid the same tax rates. But Swiss voters rejected the necessary legislation last month in a referendum.
Mr Maurer said Bern would rejig the tax proposals to prevent “blacklisting” by other countries. “We have to be a favourable tax location — otherwise we will be too expensive,” he said. But the Swiss finance minister noted the UK had cut corporation tax. “That worries us a little,” Mr Maurer said. “The UK could suddenly become a serious competitor.”
The UK’s main 20 per cent corporate rate compares with an average of just under 18 per cent across the 26 Swiss cantons. Philip Hammond, UK finance minister, has suggested that the country could move further towards a low-tax economic model if it did not win a favourable EU exit deal.
Mr Maurer said the UK’s room for manoeuvre would be reduced because its public debt levels were much higher than Switzerland’s.
“Perhaps you [the British] cannot copy us completely but the conditions for keeping jobs in the UK and strengthening the financial centre are good — and tax is an important instrument.”
Switzerland has a web of bilateral deals governing its relations with the EU, including allowing the free movement of people. But maintaining the ties has been more difficult since 2014, when the Swiss voted for restrictions on immigration from neighbouring EU countries.
Mr Maurer said he believed Brexit would lead Brussels to become more flexible on many of its rules. “The EU cannot lose further countries, otherwise it would no longer be stable. To avoid that, there will have to be some relaxation and, mid- to long-term, Switzerland will benefit from that.”
Switzerland was only marginally affected by Europe’s migration crisis, which saw millions of people fleeing wars in places such as Syria to start new lives in Germany and other countries. But foreigners account for a quarter of Switzerland’s 8.2m population, and 300,000 commute daily across the borders with France, Germany, Italy and Austria.
Mr Maurer suggested the EU had to acknowledge concerns in member states that are stoking the rise of populist politicians such as Marine Le Pen, a leading candidate for the French presidency, or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
“They don’t have unlimited room for manoeuvre — that’s clear. But when they don’t do anything, then perhaps Le Pen wins in two years, or four years. The AfD [in Germany] will be stronger, Wilders in the Netherlands, Beppe Grillo in Italy . . . The opposition will simply be greater,” he said.
Worries about European political instability, exacerbated by France’s presidential election campaign, have pushed the already-strong Swiss franc even higher. In turn, that is hitting Swiss exporters. “The more instability in Europe, the stronger the franc — because the franc is a haven currency,” Mr Maurer said.
With the Swiss central bank intervening heavily in foreign exchange markets to weaken the franc, the US has put the country on its “watch list” of possible currency manipulators. Mr Maurer hopes to convince the US otherwise. “When I understand it correctly, the US feels that some countries create unfair advantages over the US. Switzerland is not doing that,” he said.