Mafia #82 - Everybody's got a secret

[Danner]

Also something that needs to be addressed I think. Assume we lynch the poisoner tonight, the poison target is still likely to die (considering only 2 people have died to poison on N3 and N6) If we do that we go into night with 5 and worst case scenario is mafia kills the non-poison target making it a 2v1 and they have the +1 on someone (I'm assuming that role is mafia). They would literally only have to vote to win in a worst case. So we pretty have have to decide which risk is worth more, risking another poison target or that mafia role. (if lynch mafia: Go to night with 5 day starts at possible 4 with someone else poisoned and it should be possible at that point to guarantee the poisoner.) In my mind anyways.

The +1 vote is mafia for sure. That gameday-ending yesterday was due to the +1 vote, sealing any chance I had of discussing with Marack. I had a pretty good lineup of arguments as to why he was scum as well, with a logical alternative that could prove me town. *sigh*

See an earlier post on this page for the rest of that chain.

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Lynching the poisoner is a loss condition. It must be avoided. I assume the poisoner hit tumppu or virothe, because why would the poisoner be useful now after poisoning marack?

I assume we have 2 mafia + 1 poisoner vs 3 town right now. Since Virothe and Tumppu ain't it, that leaves the three of you. And I just offered a proof where I must have been the target of both NKs on N1.

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And if that is the setup, I think you are either the poisoner successfully poisoning tumppu, or the stabber failing to kill tumppu last night. We will know at night which it is. But I don't think we can wait that long.

If you did poison tumppu, we must lynch mafia today. That leaves 1 mafia vs 1 poisoner vs 1 town in the morning (because the mafia surely wouldn't want to kill you - that leaves open the option of a town win). We can make a 3 way standoff if you manage to poison the mafioso. the townie alive (likely me) will be lynched, and the two of you kill each other. Everyone loses. Game over.

If we lynch you (and you are the poisoner) today, that means tomorrow is 2 mafioso vs 1 town. Instant loss.

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Alternative #1: The setup is 1 poisoner + 1 mafia alive. Then there is room for you to be town. But that makes me wonder the game balance.

Alternative #2: Virothe is some sort of godlike mafia player who faked his role and sold out his own GF to gain town cred. In that case, let him win. He deserve it so hard. I'm not even gonna bother with this option.

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But yeah in short either Graeham or Danner are mafia and I'm not sure which since I don't think either has claimed.

I have claimed Bulletproof.
I was immune to nightkills on N1.
That should include the poison by my understanding, but I was certifiably still poisoned.
Either Catta cured me on N3 before I died, or not. Either way I'm alive.

See also post #516 for who can be the poisoner, and #512 for why I cannot be mafia. The latter is weak I know. But if you want to argue I am mafia, you need to explain it in light of that defence.

[listo95]

That was your full claim? o.O

Also Danner the you or Graeham being mafia is based on me knowing it isn't me, I doubt its Virothe and tumppu (seriously if it is Virothe he deserves the win, but like you I refuse to believe that), it is possible it could be Celtic but I just don't get that feel from him this game. So that leaves just you and Graeham in my eyes as the possible mafia. If it is 2 mafia then I think Graeham is more dangerous just due to Celtic being semi-MIA.

[Danner]

@Listo: I see why you are at that position. But as it happens, there are TWO nightkills missing on N1. The stab and the poison. The poison hit me, obviously, as reported by two independent townies. The stab hit nobody. I assume the stab is the mafia kill. But I do not believe the mafia just skipped out on using it.

The only person it could possibly have hit is myself or marack on N1.
And Marack was watched on n1, proving nobody visited him.

So who did that N1 stab hit?

The options are, as far as I can tell:
- The stabber hit me, failing due to my N1 NK immunity
- The stabber had a ninja ability and hit Marack, thus avoiding detection by Crackleslap
- The stabber hit Marack, but Crackleslap was blocked that night preventing detection. It's possible?
- Some sort of bussing happened on Crackleslap, and the stabber hit Marack through redirection shenanigans.
- The mafia didn't use their kill for whatever reason.

I can buy the first three. Which do you think it is?

[listo95]

I'd have 1 and 3 as most likely. But one of those clears you, the other doesn't. I'd need to see Graeham's claim to get a better idea on which of you I believe to be more likely mafia.

[Danner]

I agree we need claims from the others. Lets see where that goes.

[Graeham]

@Listo: Not sure I buy that. Because it implies a 4 man scum team up against a doc, a cop, a watcher and a tracker. That's pretty unbalanced.
@Graeham / @celtic : We need claims from you too.

Alright, given how high the stakes are as of this point I agree that it's now wise to throw my claim out there. I'm a Fisherman and I have the opportunity to pick an item from a list that will grant me one time uses of certain power roles. I can only acquire each item once and the chance of success of obtaining them varies based on the specific item and none are any higher than 25%.

That is why I have only been moving about on certain nights and the description of one of the potential items I could acquire - an antidote - is why I knew of the likelihood of a delayed kill in advance.

[listo95]

Alright, given how high the stakes are as of this point I agree that it's now wise to throw my claim out there. I'm a Fisherman and I have the opportunity to pick an item from a list that will grant me one time uses of certain power roles. I can only acquire each item once and the chance of success of obtaining them varies based on the specific item and none are any higher than 25%.

That is why I have only been moving about on certain nights and the description of one of the potential items I could acquire - an antidote - is why I knew of the likelihood of a delayed kill in advance.

So... how does you being a Fisherman mean you were at dupti's house? That seems a bit odd to me. But it would make sense in a way I guess.

[Graeham]

So... how does you being a Fisherman mean you were at dupti's house? That seems a bit odd to me. But it would make sense in a way I guess.

The night before he died I acquired an investigation item and used it on him the following night. Unfortunately he ended up dying on that same night, which led to it being wasted. In hindsight he likely wasn't the best target for me to pick but I tend to fall into the trap of trusting him too easily and with two players implying that they had the exact same role I was more than a little skeptical.

[listo95]

So all claims as of now

Celtic: N/A
Danner: Bulletproof N1
Graeham: Fisherman (chance to get items for roles)
Listo: Bodyguard
Tumppu: Tracker
Virothe: Question asker

Before I forget @Virothe were you able to ask a question last night and what was the answer?

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Also shit I just realized we have had evidence of the vote adder since D2...

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That gives me a tiny amount of scumminess from Danner tbh. Started a vote on Large that quickly escalated in about 11 hours. Again assuming that vote adding is mafia they knew he only needed 7 votes to be lynched at that day. Only known mafia on the train was Palawin and that was near the end, Kleos put a vote on near the end though but was not counted on it.

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Also like Crackle mentioned. What kind of drawback could a role that is only immune to NKs on N1 have? Danner is seeming more like mafia the more I look back now...

[Virothe]

Before I forget @Virothe were you able to ask a question last night and what was the answer?

Asked a question, working on my bullshit to get it answered (I need to get to 100 posts) sooo it's gonna be awhile.

[listo95]

Asked a question, working on my bullshit to get it answered (I need to get to 100 posts) sooo it's gonna be awhile.

100 total or 100 from asked?

[Virothe]

100 total or 100 from asked?

100 total and I'm at like 57-58 now I think so like another 40 odd posts pretty doable if I keep posting at the rate I am

[listo95]

100 total and I'm at like 57-58 now I think so like another 40 odd posts pretty doable if I keep posting at the rate I am

Faster then!

[Virothe]

Faster then!

I'm going as fast as I can!

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Oh ya, Just to mention me and Zeri are going to Chicago for comic-con and to meet up with people next week so if the games still ongoing then expect a bit of a dip in activity from me.

With how fast the day/night phase is I don't see it being an issue, but figured I would mention it.

[listo95]

I'm going as fast as I can!

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Oh ya, Just to mention me and Zeri are going to Chicago for comic-con and to meet up with people next week so if the games still ongoing then expect a bit of a dip in activity from me.

With how fast the day/night phase is I don't see it being an issue, but figured I would mention it.

It isn't fast enough!

[Virothe]

It isn't fast enough!

Ah, I got bored so I slowed it down.

[listo95]

Ah, I got bored so I slowed it down.

Well burn away that boredom!

[Graeham]

Since we're waiting for Celtic to show up and claim I'll be taking another look through the thread to see if there's anything I may have missed. I should be able to help Virothe get his post count up, too.

[listo95]

Since we're waiting for Celtic to show up and claim I'll be taking another look through the thread to see if there's anything I may have missed. I should be able to help Virothe get his post count up, too.

Well he appears to be offline now so that might not help much.

[Virothe]

Well he appears to be offline now so that might not help much.

I'm just playing overwatch, I post between matches and junk