[Megathread] Nintendo Switch

[johnhoftb]

[Tech614]

They sold nearly 3m in less than 1 month. Surely they can sell at 33% that pace and hit nearly 6m? Splatoon 2 and Mario kart will do well, plus E3 hype might drive some late sales. We will see, but I wouldnt be surprised to see the Switch at nearly 4m now.

Not even the most successful console is going to maintain 33% of it's launch month pace through the spring. Not sure what you're smoking. The PS4 was selling at a record setting pace and it wasn't even breaking 150k a month in spring NPDs during year 1. 10% pace is the more accurate estimate.

The next time you will see the Switch doing anything close to over 1 mil a month will be during Dec/Nov when it should sell 2m+ WW in both months(assuming it still has hype going for it which it should).

[draykorinee]

I look at Arms and think what a shitty game from a personal POV, I'm not saying its not going to sell well or whatever but I think it looks like a pile of wank.

[johnhoftb]

Argh. Thought I had my Switch wired up to my internet on the docked, but it looks like I'm having issues.

[Tech614]

I look at Arms and think what a shitty game from a personal POV, I'm not saying its not going to sell well or whatever but I think it looks like a pile of wank.

As a fighting game player it looks okay and seems to have the basic fundamentals of fighting games with some depth.

Can't get past the aesthetic of the game though which is a major turn off compared to Injustice, Marvel, SF, Tekken and Smash. The colors look washed out, and the characters look like a bad Nick Jr show.

[Chickat]

Not even the most successful console is going to maintain 33% of it's launch month pace through the spring. Not sure what you're smoking. The PS4 was selling at a record setting pace and it wasn't even breaking 150k a month in spring NPDs during year 1. 10% pace is the more accurate estimate.

The next time you will see the Switch doing anything close to over 1 mil a month will be during Dec/Nov when it should sell 2m+ WW in both months(assuming it still has hype going for it which it should).

So you think even 4m is pretty impossible for sales ending Q1?

[Tech614]

So you think even 4m is pretty impossible for sales ending Q1?

If you're asking me if the Switch is going to sell 3.3 million units in April, May and June to reach 6 mil by June 31st like what I said probably isn't happening, then no it's probably not happening.

I just highly fucking doubt the Switch surpasses 6 mil before Splatoon 2 hype in Japan consumes that country.

Again Nintendo predicts 10 mil for the entire FY and you're putting it way above that pace. It could very well be above pace, but it's not likely to be 5+mil above pace, Nintendo won't even ship enough units to meet demand if it's possible.

[Chickat]

If you're asking me if the Switch is going to sell 3.3 million units in April, May and June to reach 6 mil by June 31st like what I said probably isn't happening, then no it's probably not happening.

I just highly fucking doubt the Switch surpasses 6 mil before Splatoon 2 hype in Japan consumes that country.

Again Nintendo predicts 10 mil for the entire FY and you're putting it way above that pace. It could very well be above pace, but it's not likely to be 5+mil above pace, Nintendo won't even ship enough units to meet demand if it's possible.

Some analysts now predicting 15m. I just see a string of high profile games coming out nearly every month so thought it would do well. I do think they could surpass 6m if they shipped enough consoles. You can think im wrong. Weirder things have happened in the world.

[Tech614]

Some analysts now predicting 15m. I just see a string of high profile games coming out nearly every month so thought it would do well. I do think they could surpass 6m if they shipped enough consoles. You can think im wrong. Weirder things have happened in the world.

Nintendo predicted 2 mil shipments in March, demand higher then expected we got 2.74 mil. 37% increase.

Lets say Nintendo can meet a 37% increase on their 10 mil number(which is optimistic as hell BTW) that's still only just over 13.7 mil sold and not 15 mil.

Expecting a 50% increase on a companies estimate is crazy talk. Nintendo won't even produce that many, even if they could sell them all because they're conservative as fuck to begin with.

[Chickat]

Nintendo predicted 2 mil shipments in March, demand higher then expected we got 2.74 mil. 37% increase.

Lets say Nintendo can meet a 37% increase on their 10 mil number(which is optimistic as hell BTW) that's still only just over 13.7 mil sold and not 15 mil.

Expecting a 50% increase on a companies estimate is crazy talk. Nintendo won't even produce that many, even if they could sell them all because they're conservative as fuck to begin with.

Didnt they just say they were going to ship to stores 16m a month or so back for 2017? I swear that was a thing going around.

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Nintendo predicted 2 mil shipments in March, demand higher then expected we got 2.74 mil. 37% increase.

Lets say Nintendo can meet a 37% increase on their 10 mil number(which is optimistic as hell BTW) that's still only just over 13.7 mil sold and not 15 mil.

Expecting a 50% increase on a companies estimate is crazy talk. Nintendo won't even produce that many, even if they could sell them all because they're conservative as fuck to begin with.

So you are saying we should expect to see around 3-3.5m with the latter being extremely good? That seems so pitiful to me. I just cant see how they will only sell 400-800k more in 3 months time with Arms and Mario Kart. Those are big games. I'd argue Mario kart might be a bigger system seller than Zelda, and Arms might have legs. I love puns.

[dope_danny]

Its been interesting to see the usage stats on the Switch. 90% male to 10% female user numbers in particular when its been "the zelda box" for its launch window when zelda has always been the most gender equal fanbase for nintendo other than pokemon. A lot of articles theorise its the lack of streaming/social media integration but that seems to be relying on the "im such a nerd xD" 'gurl gamer' streamer steriotype that doesnt really apply to all the girls i knew growing up that were as crazy about link as guys were about lara croft or jill valentine and have always been nuts for zelda games.
Or maybe they just make up the 10% and theres not enough otherwise to garner female gamer interests yet? still the less surprising was the "of the 90% male userbase it is largely the 20-40 age bracket" which i think really just shows what you get when you dont release a console at christmas time.

Or maybe kids just arent willing to que and fight scalpers at midnight nowadays

[Lahis]

We will see, but I wouldnt be surprised to see the Switch at nearly 4m now.

It would be easier to gain sales if there was a supply to sell.

Switch has been sold out in all major retailers/cities for the whole of April.

[dope_danny]

It would be easier to gain sales if there was a supply to sell.

Switch has been sold out in all major retailers/cities for the whole of April.

I've had my collectors edition Zelda since launch and STILL have not been able to find a switch locally.

[Tech614]

So you are saying we should expect to see around 3-3.5m with the latter being extremely good? That seems so pitiful to me. I just cant see how they will only sell 400-800k more in 3 months time with Arms and Mario Kart. Those are big games. I'd argue Mario kart might be a bigger system seller than Zelda, and Arms might have legs. I love puns.

Not sure if this is a serious strawman attempt or if you have no clue what I said.

No where did I say Nintendo would only reach 3-.3.5 mil at the end of their Q1, I said they wouldn't reach 6 mil. You asked if they would reach 4 mil sold in Q1(which doesn't count march sales as their Q1 started on April 1st) and they certainly are not selling 4 million units in april-june.

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It would be easier to gain sales if there was a supply to sell.

Switch has been sold out in all major retailers/cities for the whole of April.

This seems to be what he's not understanding. Even if Nintendo can hypothetically sell X amount of units they are likely to stay below that number because they will continue to ship below demand. Nintendo is conservative as hell. Nintendo could have sold over 30 million Wiis in year 1 if they shipped enough... but they didn't. They prefer these situations over the 3DS/Wii U ones where retailers had too many after launch and stopped buying them.

[Jtbrig7390]

If they expect people to pay for the online come Fall it needs to be vastly improved.

Watching a streamer play MK8D now and its a pain in the ass to invite friends. He has them added but MK8D doesn't see it.

[fangless]

Well, Amazon apparently didn't get enough copies of MK8D meaning mine wouldn't show up until Wednesday. Decided to cancel the physical copy and get it digitally instead. It loads faster off the internal memory anyway.

I placed my order back on March 13th, it's with usps now. Surprised they actually had too many orders, that's never happened to me, especially with normal editions of a game-- and I order a lot of games off Amazon.

[Jtbrig7390]

I was just in my local Best Buy (Bought MK8D) and they had 15 systems on a table right as you walk in.

So I do recommend checking your local Best Buy or Toys R Us.

[Eleccybubb]

Managed to refund mine since I bought it from a local family style store and the owner is always cool with me. Well when I say refund what I meant was that he let me trade it in for a bunch of Retro games.

It's not a bad console it's just I had one game for it and that's Zelda. Seems a bit silly to own a console even as a collector for one entire game imo.

[everydaygamer]

Managed to refund mine since I bought it from a local family style store and the owner is always cool with me. Well when I say refund what I meant was that he let me trade it in for a bunch of Retro games.

It's not a bad console it's just I had one game for it and that's Zelda. Seems a bit silly to own a console even as a collector for one entire game imo.

Good point maybe if they continued to release more games over time it might be worth it but we all know that will never happen.

[Chickat]

Not sure if this is a serious strawman attempt or if you have no clue what I said.

No where did I say Nintendo would only reach 3-.3.5 mil at the end of their Q1, I said they wouldn't reach 6 mil. You asked if they would reach 4 mil sold in Q1(which doesn't count march sales as their Q1 started on April 1st) and they certainly are not selling 4 million units in april-june.

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This seems to be what he's not understanding. Even if Nintendo can hypothetically sell X amount of units they are likely to stay below that number because they will continue to ship below demand. Nintendo is conservative as hell. Nintendo could have sold over 30 million Wiis in year 1 if they shipped enough... but they didn't. They prefer these situations over the 3DS/Wii U ones where retailers had too many after launch and stopped buying them.

I dont think you understand what im saying. Im talking lifetime sales. You said to expect 150-200k.