UK general election 2017

[Triks]

Ah, I see where you're coming from now.

But such a "tough stance" from the EU side of the negotiating table is just your opinion, one that I can sort of relate to on an emotional level. But it is not where the governments of the member states or the EU institutions are at.

What I was attempting to do was predict the results of the negotiations given where both sides were at, and neither side seems to be on for a "hard Brexit" anymore. The EU never was, the UK seemed to be, but not anymore.

Until the UK has shown otherwise, this is the position that should be maintained. Brexit is their problem, not ours.

[Zarc]

I wonder, has anyone defended the Tories teaming up with DUP in this thread?

Because it sure feels like the vast majority of Brits don't want that to happen.

As vile as the DUP are, in terms of UK-wide policy I realistically see them only having 1 demand on supporting a Conservative government (which they will always prefer given the alternative), and that is no border on Ireland. Meaning the UK will remain in the European Customs Union. So this coalition will only result in a softer Brexit than what the Conservatives were shooting for, not infringement of anyone's individual rights (that the Conservative's wouldn't have otherwise done, that is :P).

But of course I encourage people not to look at this realistically but trash the Conservatives for making a deal with the DUP and brand them a "coalition of crackpots" and what have you. :P I mean it's a win - win really (compared to an outright Conservative majority). The Brexit will be softer, the Conservatives will look bad for teaming up with DUP.

Until the UK has shown otherwise, this is the position that should be maintained. Brexit is their problem, not ours.

I'd say it's both of ours problems, but theirs more than ours. But I get your drift man. Right on.

[Deleted]

As vile as the DUP are, in terms of UK-wide policy I realistically see them only having 1 demand on supporting a Conservative government (which they will always prefer given the alternative), and that is no border on Ireland. Meaning the UK will remain in the European Customs Union. So this coalition will only result in a softer Brexit than what the Conservatives were shooting for, not infringement of anyone's individual rights (that the Conservative's wouldn't have otherwise done, that is :P).

But of course I encourage people not to look at this realistically but trash the Conservatives for making a deal with the DUP and brand them a "coalition of crackpots" and what have you. :P I mean it's a win - win really (compared to an outright Conservative majority). The Brexit will be softer, the Conservatives will look bad for teaming up with DUP.

The DUP have massive bargaining power here. They will push thier anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, creationism and climate denial platforms.
@Kalis : hahahahahahahahaha, first we get a terrorist and in Arsenal shirt stabbing people at LDN bridge and now we get Tories aligning with loyalist terrorist lovers. Brilliant.

[Triks]

As vile as the DUP are, in terms of UK-wide policy I realistically see them only having 1 demand on supporting a Conservative government (which they will always prefer given the alternative), and that is no border on Ireland. Meaning the UK will remain in the European Customs Union. So this coalition will only result in a softer Brexit than what the Conservatives were shooting for, not infringement of anyone's individual rights (that the Conservative's wouldn't have otherwise done, that is :P).

But of course I encourage people not to look at this realistically but trash the Conservatives for making a deal with the DUP and brand them a "coalition of crackpots" and what have you. :P I mean it's a win - win really (compared to an outright Conservative majority). The Brexit will be softer, the Conservatives will look bad for teaming up with DUP.



I'd say it's both of ours problems, but theirs more than ours. But I get your drift man. Right on.

Our problem so much as to guarantee our people and interests and to start reforming. What has rubbed me the wrong way from day 1 of this circus is the fact that they expect us to give them a good deal. This is preposterous. They voted for it and they activated the procedure. What happens now is entirely of their own making.

[Zarc]

The DUP have massive bargaining power here. They will push thier anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, creationism and climate denial platforms.
@Kalis : hahahahahahahahaha, first we get a terrorist and in Arsenal shirt stabbing people at LDN bridge and now we get Tories aligning with loyalist terrorist lovers. Brilliant.

That's just no realistic. Scottish Conservatives, and their gay leader (as in homosexual leader, not lame ), have more power. And they would be destroyed in Scotland if they agreed to such things, and their leader never would. In fact she has already "received insurances from Theresa May" about such issues. Also, it's not realistic to think the DUP would have any ambition to push such issues on the UK as a whole. They have those things locked down in Northern Ireland where marriage equality is not legal. It's totally bonkers to think they'd use their political capital to push for that in the entirety of the UK who they weren't elected to represent.

Don't get me wrong, I think the DUP are a disgusting lot.

[Deleted]

Don't get me wrong, I think the DUP are a disgusting lot.

I really don't think people are appreciating how disgusting. They are getting bogged down on the climate change, gay rights, god lovin', woman hating parts and ignoring Sammy Wilson and his biography :

-Samuel Wilson is a British politician from Northern Ireland who is a Democratic Unionist Party Member of Parliament for East Antrim :

In January 1994, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) released a document calling for ethnic cleansing and repartition of Ireland, with the goal of making Northern Ireland wholly Protestant.[8][9] The plan was to be implemented should the British Army withdraw from Northern Ireland. Some areas with strong Catholic/nationalist majorities near the Irish border would be handed over to the Republic of Ireland, and those Catholics left stranded in the "Protestant state" would be "expelled, nullified, or interned".[8] Controversially, Wilson called some parts of the plan a "very valuable return to reality". He added: "[it] shows that some loyalist paramilitaries are looking ahead and contemplating what needs to be done to maintain our separate Ulster identity".[8]

He considers fellow Irish vermin and wants to ethnically cleanse them.

Fuck the DUP and fuck the Tories.

[Deleted]

That's just no realistic. Scottish Conservatives, and their gay leader (as in homosexual leader, not lame ), have more power. And they would be destroyed in Scotland if they agreed to such things, and their leader never would. In fact she has already "received insurances from Theresa May" about such issues. Also, it's not realistic to think the DUP would have any ambition to push such issues on the UK as a whole. They have those things locked down in Northern Ireland where marriage equality is not legal. It's totally bonkers to think they'd use their political capital to push for that in the entirety of the UK who they weren't elected to represent.

Don't get me wrong, I think the DUP are a disgusting lot.

They are. Good on Ruth Davidson, though. She might be shaping up to be a decent enough politician. @rogueMatthias might even prove right for her becoming leader, though they'd need to reign her impulses and outbursts in. Will be good for LGBTQ issues, even, and turn the Tories more towards centre-right. I'd like that, actually.

And Kensington and Banterbury going Labour is, historically, the biggest punch in the Tories' gut of the election.

[Zarc]

Our problem so much as to guarantee our people and interests and to start reforming. What has rubbed me the wrong way from day 1 of this circus is the fact that they expect us to give them a good deal. This is preposterous. They voted for it and they activated the procedure. What happens now is entirely of their own making.

Them remaining in the European Customs Union is a pretty good deal for us to be honest.

We sell more to the UK than they sell to us (though what they sell to us is a much larger part of their economy than vice versa so they are at a disadvantage here, contrary to what the Tories would have you believe as they are not presenting the whole truth). So if we can continue to sell stuff to the UK, that's good for our economy.

The Customs Union provides free trade in goods, not services. I haven't broken down the official numbers, but it's fairly safe to assume that what we sell more to them is in goods, while they actually sell more to us in services due to the massive financial sector they have. But if they leave the Single Market they will lose free trade in services, which will hurt the service sector there, and the City will lose their passporting rights meaning that a lot of jobs in the financial sector will have to move to the EU, meaning we'll gain jobs and tax revenue. They will also end freedom of movement, which they think is a good thing and which is why they are prepared to pay this price, which is also good for us. I think we can expect a good chunk of Europeans to move back to where they came from or another EU country instead, boosting our economy.

Medium Brexit with the UK remaining in the Customs Union means the Conservatives and the DUP can get what they want, while they'll get hurt economically with minimum disruption for the EU economy and a geographic diversification for the EU's financial sector which are in line with what the EU would want from a Brexit.

[Deleted]

It's good that the advisors resigned, the tories need to get some young blood in, and start attempting to appeal to younger people. With trump, sanders and now corbyn we've all seen how effective social media is for a campaign, tories need to start using it, they can no longer rely on the newspapers.

[Triks]

Them remaining in the European Customs Union is a pretty good deal for us to be honest.

We sell more to the UK than they sell to us (though what they sell to us is a much larger part of their economy than vice versa so they are at a disadvantage here, contrary to what the Tories would have you believe as they are not presenting the whole truth). So if we can continue to sell stuff to the UK, that's good for our economy.

The Customs Union provides free trade in goods, not services. I haven't broken down the official numbers, but it's fairly safe to assume that what we sell more to them is in goods, while they actually sell more to us in services due to the massive financial sector they have. But if they leave the Single Market they will lose free trade in services, which will hurt the service sector there, and the City will lose their passporting rights meaning that a lot of jobs in the financial sector will have to move to the EU, meaning we'll gain jobs and tax revenue. They will also end freedom of movement, which they think is a good thing and which is why they are prepared to pay this price, which is also good for us. I think we can expect a good chunk of Europeans to move back to where they came from or another EU country instead, boosting our economy.

Medium Brexit with the UK remaining in the Customs Union means the Conservatives and the DUP can get what they want, while they'll get hurt economically with minimum disruption for the EU economy and a geographic diversification for the EU's financial sector which are in line with what the EU would want from a Brexit.

This is exactly what they want, though - some sort of access to the free market but without us pesky Europeans going to the UK. Junkcer has to be an even bigger drunk than I think he is in order to give 'em that.

[draykorinee]

The DUP have massive bargaining power here. They will push thier anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, creationism and climate denial platforms.
@Kalis : hahahahahahahahaha, first we get a terrorist and in Arsenal shirt stabbing people at LDN bridge and now we get Tories aligning with loyalist terrorist lovers. Brilliant.

Yeah but in the 80s Corbyn spoke to the IRA.

[Pann]

It's good that the advisors resigned, the tories need to get some young blood in, and start attempting to appeal to younger people. With trump, sanders and now corbyn we've all seen how effective social media is for a campaign, tories need to start using it, they can no longer rely on the newspapers.

Why? They are just scapegoats nothing will change.

[Zarc]

This is exactly what they want, though - some sort of access to the free market but without us pesky Europeans going to the UK. Junkcer has to be an even bigger drunk than I think he is in order to give 'em that.

No, what they want is to remain in the Single Market without us pesky Europeans going to the UK. The Single Market gives free movement of goods, services, capital and people.

Being in the European Customs Union is an entirely different thing, covering free trade and tariffs for goods only. This is what Turkey has. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not in the Single Market or in the EU. But of course the UK is a service-based economy, and we sell more German cars, French wines and Italian cheese to them than they sell Scotch whiskey to us. They however sell more financial and other services to us than we do to them, and they also have many corporations placing their headquarters in the UK to access the European market. But with freedom of movement of services and capital ending, this won't be possible anymore. Which will hurt them economically. These are the things they would like to keep without the free movement of people, but they can't and this is what Juncker, Merkel and other European heads of government have been very clear about. And it won't change. Staying in the Customs Union on the other hand, that's very possible.

So basically the UK is gonna be like Turkey, if my prediction is correct. Congrats! (Not in a Eurabian conspiracy theoriest kind of way though. Economically visa-a-vis the EU. Just to be clear to any potential crazed alt-righters reading this. :P)

[Deleted]

It's good that the advisors resigned, the tories need to get some young blood in, and start attempting to appeal to younger people. With trump, sanders and now corbyn we've all seen how effective social media is for a campaign, tories need to start using it, they can no longer rely on the newspapers.

Yeah, good on both Bernie and Corbyn on that.

Question would be how to find young people that would associate with the Tories without just being fresh faces with dodgy ideals. Young people tend to mock and hate "My dad's a lawyer!" types even more than they do with the curmudgeonish Tory population. If there's going to be young and fresh conservatives, they'd need to be reasonable and reform-driven, which wouldn't sit well with most of the shriveled old ballsacks in the party.

To summarise my thoughts: In order to appeal to the young, you'd need young individuals that are conservative, millenial-understanding, goal-driven people, who don't mind being ignored by their seniors in the party. Those people, especially ones that would be able to be understanded and heard by other young people, are rarer than Scotland's national animal.

I really don't think people are appreciating how disgusting. They are getting bogged down on the climate change, gay rights, god lovin', woman hating parts and ignoring Sammy Wilson and his biography :

-Samuel Wilson is a British politician from Northern Ireland who is a Democratic Unionist Party Member of Parliament for East Antrim :

In January 1994, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) released a document calling for ethnic cleansing and repartition of Ireland, with the goal of making Northern Ireland wholly Protestant.[8][9] The plan was to be implemented should the British Army withdraw from Northern Ireland. Some areas with strong Catholic/nationalist majorities near the Irish border would be handed over to the Republic of Ireland, and those Catholics left stranded in the "Protestant state" would be "expelled, nullified, or interned".[8] Controversially, Wilson called some parts of the plan a "very valuable return to reality". He added: "[it] shows that some loyalist paramilitaries are looking ahead and contemplating what needs to be done to maintain our separate Ulster identity".[8]

He considers fellow Irish vermin and wants to ethnically cleanse them.

Fuck the DUP and fuck the Tories.

Hooooooly shiiiiit.

[Triks]

No, what they want is to remain in the Single Market without us pesky Europeans going to the UK. The Single Market gives free movement of goods, services, capital and people.

Being in the European Customs Union is an entirely different thing, covering free trade and tariffs for goods only. This is what Turkey has. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not in the Single Market or in the EU. But of course the UK is a service-based economy, and we sell more German cars, French wines and Italian cheese to them than they sell Scotch whiskey to us. They however sell more financial and other services to us than we do to them, and they also have many corporations placing their headquarters in the UK to access the European market. But with freedom of movement of services and capital ending, this won't be possible anymore. Which will hurt them economically. These are the things they would like to keep without the free movement of people, but they can't and this is what Juncker, Merkel and other European heads of government have been very clear about. And it won't change. Staying in the Customs Union on the other hand, that's very possible.

So basically the UK is gonna be like Turkey, if my prediction is correct. Congrats! (Not in a Eurabian conspiracy theoriest kind of way though. Economically visa-a-vis the EU. Just to be clear to any potential crazed alt-righters reading this. :P)

It's still too much - out means out.

[Deleted]

Hooooooly shiiiiit.

Scratching the surface his other great hits include :

"The GAA is the sporting wing of the IRA"
"I don't care if [gays] are ratepayers. As far as I am concerned they are perverts"
"Taigs don't pay rates"
They [Sinn Féin voters in the Oldpark area of Belfast] are sub-human animals"
"myth based on dodgy science" (climate change)

[Zarc]

It's still too much - out means out.

Yeah, I get that that's your opinion. I still don't think that's what the outcome will be.

Though in reality out doesn't necessarily means out. Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all in the Single Market without being in the EU. Which is an arrangement Nigel Farage - that vile freak of nature - would call "not members in name only", which is largely true since they have to adopt pretty much all legislation aside from those relating to agriculture and fisheries without having democratic representation in the Parliament or the Council. An odd choice in my opinion, but whatever floats their boat. None of them are in the Customs Union though, but all of them are in the Schengen Area. Turkey on the other hand is in the Customs Union without being in the EU, but they are not part of the Single Market nor the Schengen Area. Many countries inside the EU are not part of the Eurozone, some are not part of the Schengen Area (like Ireland, who have the Common Travel Area with the UK). So in reality not everyone is all in. But what you cannot do is be partially in the Single Market, partially in the Customs Union, partially in the Schengen Area, partially in the Eurozone, etc. So for the Brits to think they can be in the Single Market but without freedom of movement (of people), that is just not possible.

[Triks]

Yeah, I get that that's your opinion. I still don't think that's what the outcome will be.

Though in reality out doesn't necessarily means out. Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all in the Single Market without being in the EU. Which is an arrangement Nigel Farage - that vile freak of nature - would call "not members in name only", which is largely true since they have to adopt pretty much all legislation aside from those relating to agriculture and fisheries without having democratic representation in the Parliament or the Council. An odd choice in my opinion, but whatever floats their boat. None of them are in the Customs Union though, but all of them are in the Schengen Area. Turkey on the other hand is in the Customs Union without being in the EU, but they are not part of the Single Market nor the Schengen Area. Many countries inside the EU are not part of the Eurozone, some are not part of the Schengen Area (like Ireland, who have the Common Travel Area with the UK). So in reality not everyone is all in. But what you cannot do is be partially in the Single Market, partially in the Customs Union, partially in the Schengen Area, partially in the Eurozone, etc. So for the Brits to think they can be in the Single Market but without freedom of movement (of people), that is just not possible.

The best outcome for them and us would be the Norway model but they don't want it.

[Zarc]

The best outcome for them and us would be the Norway model but they don't want it.

Yes, I agree with that. In my opinion that is the preferred outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

What I think will be the outcome, though, is the "Turkey model". Because it checks all the boxes of the Conservatives (out of the EU + end freedom of movement) and of the DUP (no Irish border), and it's acceptable to the EU (the UK will maintain some form of close relationship with us, they will pay an economic price for leaving, we can continue to sell them our German cars and French wines).

[Mayhem]

3) Retain no border on Ireland: Remain in the European Customs Union. (Meaning the UK won't be able to negotiate their own free trade agreements, which is why this will be a concession to the DUP on part of the Conservatives). And of course don't touch the Common Travel Area. (Which is a bilateral agreement between Ireland and the UK, neither whom are part of the EU's Schengen Area). Check.

Why would remaining in the european customs union mean retain no border on ireland?

- - - Updated - - -

I wonder, has anyone defended the Tories teaming up with DUP in this thread?

Kalis did, of course.