Originally Posted by
Skroe
Okay so to explain this I'm going to reach back and apply something that General David Petraeus said about the Iraqi Insurgency before the surge: that "we" need to sort the opposition (in this case the conservatives/Republicans, in that case the Iraqi insurgency) into 3 camps:
(1) The eager and willing die hard zealots who will oppose us no matter what. There is no rationalizing with these people.
(2) The the reluctant, who are waiting for a better offer and constitute the bulk of the opposition.
(3) The desperate, who are going along in order to survive and are acting as such because they feel they have no choice.
The success of the surge in Iraq was in part based around dividing and conquering (so to speak) 2 and 3 through various means, and turning them against 1. 3 is easy to recruit. 2 requires a good plan and a lot of resources. And all of it is to stop 1 dead in their tracks. That's essentially what the "Sunni Awakening" boiled down too.
The modern Republican Party and Conservative movement (and they are different) is not so different.
There are many people, particularly among the young or the educated in both factions, who are of (3) because they simply do not know what else to do in the Trump era, and are trying to weather the storm.
The vast majority of Republican voters are of the second type. The voted Trump because he had an (R) next to his name and they thought he was closer to their worldview than Democrats. These are not bad, hateful people. Sure, they may where a MAGA hat or say something silly about "crooked hillary" from time to time, but most are just trying to make their way in the world and put food on the table.
The reason so many people in (2) voted for Trump despite the elite of the Party nearly universally turning away from Trump has everything to do with the "all politics is local" axiom. Because it's generally true... what your State and Local government does has a far greater effect on your life day to day than the Federal Government. And with previous elections not having produced "change", they felt safe and far away enough from this "abstraction" we were dealing with about who would be the next President in this distant Washington government that doesn't really effect our lives, that they had far less of a problem throwing the Trump Grenade than we expected.
A key part to getting them to abandon Trump is to make what goes on in Washington matter to them so as to not be destructive with their votes. I think that is already happening to a degree.
Or let me put it like this: how many Trump voters would be okay with Donald Trump being their mayor or their governor? Probably a lot less than those okay with him being their President surprisingly enough.
The future Republican party will be ran by the people who are neither 1-2 or 3 like me, and populated by 2s and 3s, while the 1s go back to the lunatic fringe where they belong. The 2s will not vanish, but with a better deal, they will do what people in crowds often do, which is change their tone and minds to adhere. That is, after all, how many of them got INTO Trump in the first place.
And it must be said that the future Republican Party is going to likely incorporate a lot of centrists and conservative Democrats out there if they truly (and foolishly) decide to walk down the progressive wing. I mean this is kind of a hard question for the Democrats too, because they have a golden opportunity to grab a huge number of the center-right and the educated on the right.
I think one of the most astute analysis of the Trump phenomenon is that it was a reaction against America in the age of Obama becoming ever more a meritocracy that locked low-educated, low-skill Americans out of a avenues of advancement of various types. While obviously that problem must be seriously addressed (people to desperate things when deprived of dignity, such as the dignity from having a good job), I see American meritocracy as something to be encouraged and embraced, not feared.
if Democrats embrace the idea of , in part, being the party of the educated, the party of merit-based-achievement, and the party of of empowerment-through-work, then they'll find a lot of converts. If they go the full Bernie Sanders / Jeremy Corbyn though, they'll find a rejuvenated Republican Party around 2030 and squandered a once-in-a-century opportunity.