Trump threatens to cut off trade with China if it does not stop trade with NK

[Breccia]

There is also the possibility that China took NK more seriously since the last thing China wants is a refugee stream due to a war nearby.

That is not a possibility. That is a certainity. They have already doubled their borders and are throwing back NKoreans left and right.

[Tijuana]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treas...154222307.html

I support this. If China wants to play chicken, let's get it on. We would both be harmed by this, but less than we would by the destruction of the planet. But, China would be FAR worse off than the US, if trade ceased.

Why are Liberals concerned about the slow destruction of the planet, via pollution, but the instant destruction of the planet is of ZERO concern to them? Is it because they are not being honest?

[zorkuus]

I support this. If China wants to play chicken, let's get it on. We would both be harmed by this, but less than we would by the destruction of the planet. But, China would be FAR worse off than the US, if trade ceased.

Why are Liberals concerned about the slow destruction of the planet, via pollution, but the instant destruction of the planet is of ZERO concern to them? Is it because they are not being honest?

Because we're not paranoid and don't think the NK situation will escalate into WWIII.

[Deja Thoris]

Why are Liberals concerned about the slow destruction of the planet, via pollution, but the instant destruction of the planet is of ZERO concern to them? Is it because they are not being honest?

Because destruction of the planet isn't a realistic prospect from a tiny country with a nuke or 5. Maybe you're being a hysterical idiot and we're being pragmatic?

[Breccia]

North Korea Crisis: Trump Threatens to Stop U.S. Trade With China. Could He?

Bla bla bla intro...

"This gets pretty wild pretty fast," according to Taylor Griffin, a former Treasury spokesman and White House staffer under President George W. Bush. In terms of the economic impact, Griffin said that "apocalyptic is probably a good way to describe it."

North Korea may be isolated but it still trades with more than 100 nations, including Russia, India and most importantly China. Trump was suggesting that the U.S. could stop trading with all of them.

His tweet was widely regarded as a thinly veiled threat aimed at coercing China to do more to squeeze North Korea. Around 90 percent of Pyongyang's trade is with Beijing and Trump has often said the Chinese should take more steps to rein in Kim Jong Un's nuclear ambitions.

During his campaign and in office, Trump has criticized what he says are China's unfair trade practices and threatened Beijing with what analysts say would amount to nothing short of a trade war. But whereas he suggested slapping hefty tariffs before, stopping trade altogether would be a far more extreme approach.

His comments angered China, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang labeling them "unacceptable" and "unfair" on Monday.

But stopping all trade with China — not to mention other countries such as Mexico, France and Saudi Arabia, which all trade with North Korea — would not only cause pain in Beijing.

"We're talking about a global recession and devastation for the global economy," according to Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, the U.S. geoeconomics fellow at Chatham House, a think tank based in London.

"Cutting off trade with China would trigger a trade war and a protectionist spiral that would have adverse consequences for the entire world," she said. "China could also retaliate ... it's unlikely they would just sit on the sidelines."

Americans would likely feel these effects as acutely as anyone. China is America's largest trading partner and goods and services between the two nations totaled an estimated $648.2 billion last year.

According to the Department of Commerce, exports to China alone supported an estimated 911,000 U.S. jobs.

Furthermore, countless products consumed across America contain parts from China or are assembled by Chinese workers — Apple's iPhone being one of the most obvious examples.

"If bilateral trade between the U.S. and China goes away, American store shelves are empty," Griffin said. "You're not going to have anything to sell in Walmart … There'll be no iPhone 8 for you."

In theory it could be possible to move the supply chain away from mainland China and to another location such as Taiwan but that would be expensive.

The crisis might also create complex macroeconomic conditions that could see a spike in U.S. interest rates — meaning spiraling costs for loans and mortgages.

"When that happens it would suddenly become a brake on the economy," Griffin said."There would be ripple effects everywhere. People talk about a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a tornado on the other side of the world. This wouldn't be a butterfly — it would be a 747 taking off."

He added: "I think the overall thing is that the American people will get a very painful lesson in economics."

It may sound outlandish but in theory Trump has the power to do this. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 gives the president licence to impose trade restrictions in the face of an "unusual and extraordinary threat."

However, the president has a track record of failing to follow through on his bold statements — such as promising to label China a currency manipulator.

But this presents a problem in and of itself.

If other nations believe that the words of the president are hollow, then the power of those words become severely diminished.

"I don't think this threat is credible," Schneider-Petsinger at Chatham House said. "This has huge implications for the credibility of the U.S. in terms of leverage, if Trump is creating these red lines and not following through.

Bolded for emphasis.

[Macaquerie]

Seems like Trump and his supporters don't quite realize that making threats you can't back up doesn't actually work. He can spew all the "tough talk" he wants, but when he inevitably fails to follow it up with action the credibility of the administration and the country will be diminished, which will embolden North Korea and all of our other enemies including China and Russia. From Kim Jong Un's perspective, if the only American response to his tests is empty talk, why shouldn't he escalate?

[Grapemask]

My kneejerk reaction was "hey, that's not the worst idea, maybe it'll help resolve all this. It's a very strong message." Then, remembering that Trump's ideas are only "halfway not shitty" at a kneejerk level, my brain worked for all of two more seconds.

I've concluded thay maybe saying "I'm going to shoot you in the foot by firing a bullet through my chest cavity" is not the most winning argument for getting your way.

[Sky High]

while I'm not opposed to this idea beyond how utterly improbable it is of ever happening in a meaningful way, part of those countries helping NK are of curse.. his buddies in Russia. sooo it'll be interesting and hilarious to see where this goes, if anywhere,

- - - Updated - - -

Why are Liberals concerned about the slow destruction of the planet, via pollution, but the instant destruction of the planet is of ZERO concern to them? Is it because they are not being honest?

ya know, instead of posting on here beating up strawmen why not log onto some Chinese server in WoW and beat up on them there?
like this one


or this one


or these poor bastards

[ringpriest]

Is there anyone (besides his imbecilic cult members) who still thinks President Trump's mouth-noises are worth paying attention to?

The man (using the term very loosely and generously) has all the diplomatic tact, subtlety and nuance of a senile, rabid and lobotomized wolverine - this is probably his version of a clever idea (unfortunately for all his poor subjects, he's more like Baldric playing Hacker than anything else) and thus dumber than a bucket of hammers; but fortunately, it's pretty obvious at this point that while there's always the outside chance he'll lose it and actually do something really damaging (rather than just turning "his" nation's moral credibility (and morale) into well-rotted kindling) he is a powerless figurehead for a near-junta made up from a wing of the military-industrial-financial complex (whether this is a deliberate plan or simply an emergent result of American's "electing" a rotting lump of orange pudding disguising itself as a human being is ultimately irrelevant) - in short, the chances of this actually happening are those of slim, son of none.

[Breccia]

Is there anyone (besides his imbecilic cult members) who still thinks President Trump's mouth-noises are worth paying attention to?

Yes. China. And they're not happy.

Sorry, but those insane mouth-noises still speak for the country. That's why we shouldn't have elected him.

[ringpriest]

Yes. China. And they're not happy.

Sorry, but those insane mouth-noises still speak for the country. That's why we shouldn't have elected him.

The Chinese government isn't happy about a lot of things, and I expect they're still a little offended that y'all are making them deal with Trump in the first place, but as far as I can see no one really takes him that seriously now (even as a random madman with the power to start a war); they take Nikki Haley far more seriously than Trump (they don't like her (or at least what she says) much, but they appear to believe that she represent the something that passes for a legitimate US government, unlike her putative boss in his golf cart). And in general, they (and the public) appear more concerned with increased ROK-US arms deals, and the (metaphorical) unseemly noise caused by North Korea's recent test right at the start of the BRICS summit.

As far as dealing with Trump, when he comes in November they'll show him giant pictures of himself, put him onstage at some huge ceremonies, hand him something he can call a victory, and he'll go home smiling and nodding while Xi gets everything he wants.

[turboether]

Something something paper tiger.

[Tijuana]

Because destruction of the planet isn't a realistic prospect from a tiny country with a nuke or 5. Maybe you're being a hysterical idiot and we're being pragmatic?

Maybe you think if NK nukes the US, we will just say, "Oh darn."

Dude, they nuke us, we nuke them, then China nukes us, and then France nukes China. Then Russia nukes France, etc. It's called Global Thermonuclear War, and civilized societies have spend decades trying to avoid it. Yet, in your mind, all these leaders were just...what, exactly? Morons? Fools? When you think the entire leadership of the world is dumber than you, you ought to either reconsider, or run for high office.

[Deja Thoris]

Maybe you think if NK nukes the US, we will just say, "Oh darn."

Dude, they nuke us, we nuke them, then China nukes us, and then France nukes China. Then Russia nukes France, etc. It's called Global Thermonuclear War, and civilized societies have spend decades trying to avoid it. Yet, in your mind, all these leaders were just...what, exactly? Morons? Fools? When you think the entire leadership of the world is dumber than you, you ought to either reconsider, or run for high office.

Why would china nuke you for nuking NK back? I know in depth thinking isn't your strong point but please...

[Tijuana]

Why would china nuke you for nuking NK back? I know in depth thinking isn't your strong point but please...

It seems you don't realize that detonating a bomb 2,000 times stronger than those in WWII, ten feet from China, is going to be kind of a big deal to them. Why is that? Do you just not understand nuclear fallout, and how it works? Is it that you don't realize just how big of an area the the blast is or...something?

For example, if you nuke Tijuana (Mexico not the poster haters), I'm pretty sure the US will take issue with that, given it will utterly destroy San Diego. Ergo, nuking NK would likely make China pretty god damn upset. The notion that they would not consider this an act of war, is just...bizarre.

I guess if you didn't live through the cold war, they didn't teach you kids how this works. Everyone has a big nuke off and the planet dies. Nobody can "win" a nuclear war, and nobody will ignore being nuked. No sane person would ever order a nuclear strike preemptively. But the NK leader is NOT sane. This is why it's a problem.

[Deja Thoris]

It seems you don't realize that detonating a bomb 2,000 times stronger than those in WWII, ten feet from China, is going to be kind of a big deal to them. Why is that? Do you just not understand nuclear fallout, and how it works? Is it that you don't realize just how big of an area the the blast is or...something?

For example, if you nuke Tijuana (Mexico not the poster haters), I'm pretty sure the US will take issue with that, given it will utterly destroy San Diego. Ergo, nuking NK would likely make China pretty god damn upset. The notion that they would not consider this an act of war, is just...bizarre.

I guess if you didn't live through the cold war, they didn't teach you kids how this works. Everyone has a big nuke off and the planet dies. Nobody can "win" a nuclear war, and nobody will ignore being nuked. No sane person would ever order a nuclear strike preemptively. But the NK leader is NOT sane. This is why it's a problem.

Hes very sane. All his provocations are carefully calculated. Plus have you seen how far the capital is from China? Yea, you're clueless.

[Shadowferal]

Trump's just bullshitting as usual.
If trade ever got cutoff with China then we'd have a Recession pretty quickly.

[Tijuana]

Hes very sane. All his provocations are carefully calculated. Plus have you seen how far the capital is from China? Yea, you're clueless.

Dude it's a tiny country. One missile blast factually will not fit inside their borders.

[Deleted]

He still needs to call them currency manipulators; so we should probably start a list at this point on what he needs to do with China.

[Breccia]

Dude it's a tiny country. One missile blast factually will not fit inside their borders.

North Korea is roughly the size and shape of Ohio. about 200 miles across. Our 500kt Trident D5 warheads have a five-mile blast radius for radiation and third-degree burn damage. NukeMap could be wrong by an order of magnitude and still make you look like an idiot.