Is the Collapse of the U.S. Now Inevitable?

[Independent voter]

So we make a hell of a lot more money than we did 10 years ago. This graph shows the national debt as a percent of GDP. It was highest during WWII which makes sense.

[Deleted]

It would be a great day for the EU on the Internet. Until they realized now all the nations they raped for 300 years are now fully mordern, angry, and don't have to worry about the US stopping them from returning the favor.

But dont worry. We all know everyone has a white sheet ready to run up the flag pole.

What the fuck are you on about? Clearly the EU would not be happy if America collapsed. Just beacuse many European dislikes your current president means fuck all in the grand scheme of things. The US is Europes closest ally outside our continent and in exchange for the defense they offer us we allow American to place countless soldiers and bases in our territory partial allowing the American the supreme power they have global. It's not a total one way relationship. Also Europe isn't defenceless with out the US. Admittly in comparison to the US europe armed forces are small but in comparison to everyone else UK, France and German have decently strong militaries. We Also have nukes. Also modern wars aren't declared over century old blood feuds? many of those countries we did historical enslave and exploit now have political ties to us. Commonwealth states aren't going to attack Britain the day after the US falls. The most Europe has to fear is Russia. Whose expansionism so far has only extended to regions they consider Russian so spoilers that's not western Europe. Europe would decline in power without a doubt without the US but western European nations are still among the most powerful, just not US or BRIC levels. We're certainly not unaware of our position ethier. So no Europeans wouldn't be 'happy' but we would surive. Likely having to switch to a pro Russian foreign policy, which would simply mean a change in leadership. which democracies are very quick to allow.

[Theodarzna]

What kind of time frame are you talking about? In reality, your comparison should be more like a man walks up and says, "I'm going to certainly live for the next 5-10 years!"

The US will be around for decades to come guaranteed, more than likely centuries even. (aside from some crazy natural disaster possibly). Obviously though if we're talking about THOUSANDS of years then probably not. But that's a bit dumb to talk about. Just like it's dumb for a 20 year old to talk about not living until he's 120.

Centuries? That seems optimistic.

[bowchikabow]

by collapse, do you mean states going as independent nations or a civil insurrection against oligarchy?


fascinating enough, if california decide to be independant, it would be the 8th economy of the world, get into G8 (which i guess would be renamed G9) and could really thrive without having to shoulder the failling economy of more rural states of the US.

California, it's hollywood, it's silicon valley, it's a massive economy.

This is a joke right? Do you what would happen if California seceded and didn't have Uncle Sam bailing it out constantly? It was disappear. Not to mention, the country would NEVER let that happen. Democrats would lose their shit if their guaranteed 55 electoral votes up and vanished.

[Ave07]

Not within our lifetime.

[Garnier Fructis]

I don't need to. There aren't only two choices of "imminent doom" and forever "forever".

This is exactly the statement that I made which lead to the 'downer' comment in the first place. Here's hoping we don't go in a circle again.

[Whitedragon]

by collapse, do you mean states going as independent nations or a civil insurrection against oligarchy?


fascinating enough, if california decide to be independant, it would be the 8th economy of the world, get into G8 (which i guess would be renamed G9) and could really thrive without having to shoulder the failling economy of more rural states of the US.

California, it's hollywood, it's silicon valley, it's a massive economy.

Trouble with that line of thought is that Cally owes some of its success to the US body. Upon leaving the US it loses all the benefits of being part of the "Whole" gave it, and unlike say Grate Britten who had a self sufficient economy before Brexit which they could fall back on, Cally has never been built around being able to self sustain.

I mean with that basic of a statement you could say if 2 or 3 of the biggest city's in Cally formed their own joint country they would still have one of the largest economies in the world.... For all of 5 days until all of their Rural resources ran out, then the market would crash.....

[Mormolyce]

Depends what you mean by collapse I suppose?

Will it cease to be a superpower in the conventional sense? Hard to say.

Will it collapse economically? Probably not in the near term.

Will it be defeated militarily by a foreign power? Very unlikely.

Will it tear itself apart with an internecine civil war? Mmmm, while this is probably the most likely of these I don't think it'll cross the threshold just based on this current conflict.

nope, the US is better then most of the world.

I mean, if you compare it to third world shitholes it comes out looking pretty good.

Against its peers, not so much.

[Doctor Funkenstein]

but yeah, the supreme court has ruled that secession from the union being unconstitutional, so the US would be within its right to send the army to quell the rebellion. California has no army to speak of. Beside, i'm pretty sure californian resident sees themselves as americans.

No. A state simply can't declare that it's secesseding and then expect that to be respected by the United Stations. That's what was ruled unconstitutional. Secession through an outright rebellion or, preferably, diplomacy with the federal government is perfectly acceptable and the Supreme Court stated as much when making that decision.

Or in other words, they could fight or they could bargain, but they can't just declare.

[Ripster42]

It's more likely that the US would balkanize long before 'becoming a third world nation'; you'd have the developed successor states in the Northeast and West Coast with the South and Midwest turning into banana republics.

I don't see that happening. The midwest still has pretty liberal population centers in kansas city, minneapolis, st louis, qc, and chicago. Balkanization of the US would likely lead to a lot more of the young people in the midwest to return home as well. It's weird that some people think the midwest is the bible belt. It's not.

[INVASMANIXOXOXO]

I don't see that happening. The midwest still has pretty liberal population centers in kansas city, minneapolis, st louis, qc, and chicago. Balkanization of the US would likely lead to a lot more of the young people in the midwest to return home as well. It's weird that some people think the midwest is the bible belt. It's not.

It seems to kind of be a mix, some of the states in the south seem pretty economically sound/robust (NC GA), where some are bad like Mississippi Arkansas Missouri. The same thing applies to the midwest Wisconsin/Ohio/Minnesota and Indiana sort of are decent but Michigan/Illinois/Kansas/Wvirginia and a couple others aren't great. And although 1 city isn't enough to prop up a state from being an economic hinterland (Chicago), some of these states have cities are are very economically robust such as charlotte/minneapolis/atlanta/KC(even though its still a shithole)

[Collegeguy]

A civil war de facto means a collapse...

?

A civil war did happen. It was far from a collapse.

[Tijuana]

• 20 trillion in debt translates to over 100k debt for every single person in the work force 155 - 160 million people.
• College debt is already skyrocketing and the price of college is still going up.
• Worker pay has stagnated over the last 20 year.
• Income inequality higher than when we separated from England.
• Job outsourcing and AI taking over is putting people out of work all over at a time when a college degree is essential for a basic job.
• Rent costs are insane and increasing.
• Climate change.
• One single accident can bankrupt a person with healthcare costs.
• Completely corrupt political sphere.
• High imprisonment rates.
• The failing economy is dividing people creating even more polarized politics and hinting at civil war.

I am not nation bashing, I am just seeing the reality of the big picture. There is no fix for the U.S. Its citizens are going to be hurting for a very long time.

1. It's a lot of money and it needs to stop, yes. However the payments are all being made, and those payments don't actually add up to that much of our total budget. Mathematically speaking, future Social Security promises are far more of a problem. However, the problem with systemic deficit spending, is that at some point in the future, rates will gain more and more distance from zero, making future treasury notes sold much more costly to the government to repay.

2. Too many people go to college already. I know that isn't popular to say, but it's patently obvious, given the antics of current students. Clearly many of them are there to do anything but learn things.
We need to address the source of the increases:
a. Blank check government programs changed to set figure grants and loans, that force market competition rather than persistent tuition increases.
b. Tuition laws that force universities to drastically raise in state tuition, to keep within the allowable ratio with out of state tuition. They want to charge foreign students an arm and a leg. They are held back by these laws, so they raise the cost for everyone.

3. Worker pay stagnation is largely due to excessive illegal immigration, and will presumably correct somewhat as it goes down. However, the figures you likely have seen, that are based on household rather than per capita figures, show the problem to be greater than it actually is.

4. Income inequality is just a talking point. A few really rich guys have stockpiled a lot of wealth, but they are mostly all old. When they die, the money will run off to charity or to children, get dispersed, and so on. It's not an actual real concern. Wealth is not a finite thing. One person having some, doesn't keep someone else from having some too.

5. At some point we will need to extend our high school learning up through college, or perhaps maybe we could just actually teach the same thing we used to teach in school, instead of culturally appropriated bathroom diversity training.

6. Rent is up because the economy is up. This is normal and an non-problem. If it's really bad where you live, I suggest moving somewhere without rent control making the problem worse. Alternatively, earn more money. As you get older, you will make more, I assure you. Being young and poor is less of a problem than being old and poor.

7. The climate never stops changing. Making it warmer will be bad for some areas, and good for others. Such is the existence of man on this planet. /shrug

8. Bankruptcy isn't that big of a deal. You get a higher credit card rate for a few years. Big deal. Everyone still gets care.

9. There have been some outrageous instances of police getting off. But given they all work at different departments, it's just a smear to assume the same result as the few unfair instances. Meanwhile there are hundreds and thousands of other instances, where justice was properly served. Assuming the outliers are the norm, is intellectually dishonest, and that is why BLM has accomplished nothing.

10. I would argue for higher imprisonment rates, but dramatically lower sentences. We don't need to turn every two bit offender in to a gang banging Al Capone.

11. The economy is NOT failing. What on earth are you on about? Is this thread a necro???

[Ripster42]

It seems to kind of be a mix, some of the states in the south seem pretty economically sound/robust (NC GA), where some are bad like Mississippi Arkansas Missouri. The same thing applies to the midwest Wisconsin/Ohio/Minnesota and Indiana sort of are decent but Michigan/Illinois/Kansas/Wvirginia and a couple others aren't great. And although 1 city isn't enough to prop up a state from being an economic hinterland (Chicago), some of these states have cities are are very economically robust such as charlotte/minneapolis/atlanta/KC(even though its still a shithole)

I'm specifically speaking to the midwest. The south would end up a shit hole (I'm excluding texas here, because they'd be their own state). This is assuming balkanization happens, which I don't think will in my lifetime nor the next generation's.

Also, west virginia isn't the midwest AFAIK. Basically starts at ohio and stretches through nebraska and kansas. Norther border to the southern borders of missouri/illinois/indiana/ohio. That's the area I've always considered the midwest. The only shit hole states in that area are kansas and the lower peninsula of michigan.

A lot of the northern midwest had a disproportionate amount immigration from germany and the nordic countries (compared to the rest of the country, but especially the south) which led to a different type of christianity being practiced there (think things like lutheran) than in much of the south, focused more on good works rather than the fire and brimstone/sin/redemption approach the baptists/pentecostals were more famous for. It's had a marked effect on voting pattern differences even though both the south and much of the midwest are both fairly rural.

[Cynical Person]

• 20 trillion in debt translates to over 100k debt for every single person in the work force 155 - 160 million people.
• College debt is already skyrocketing and the price of college is still going up.
• Worker pay has stagnated over the last 20 year.
• Income inequality higher than when we separated from England.
• Job outsourcing and AI taking over is putting people out of work all over at a time when a college degree is essential for a basic job.
• Rent costs are insane and increasing.
• Climate change.
• One single accident can bankrupt a person with healthcare costs.
• Completely corrupt political sphere.
• High imprisonment rates.
• The failing economy is dividing people creating even more polarized politics and hinting at civil war.

I am not nation bashing, I am just seeing the reality of the big picture. There is no fix for the U.S. Its citizens are going to be hurting for a very long time.

Hm. None of that concerns me because I'm too busy working. Get a job hippie.

[Alvito]

I do enjoy climate change making the list of why the country will fall apart. Somehow the US will be the one and only nation to buckle under the weather changes.

[endersblade]

Between pay that isn't keeping up with the times, rent prices skyrocketing everywhere, and it costing you bankruptcy in some situations just to keep breathing, I think SOMETHING is going to happen. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later.

[Fencers]

Probably not. Culture is simply changing in an era of unprecedented documentation.

[Tijuana]

I'm confused where you think this is taught. Also, what do you mean extend our high school learning up through college?

Well, we have a giant infrastructure that currently exists to teach kids what they need to know. We have watered that down with a lot of nonsense, and we have watered up the grading. The result is a high school diploma that isn't really worth anything. We need to restore traditional curriculum, traditional grading standards, and possibly expand it up a couple more years, effectively giving everyone an associates degree, or perhaps a trade skill certificate. But the cost per student variance, between a current day high school senior, and a current day college freshman, is insanity. Just my two cents, anyway.

[NicoWolf]

1. It's a lot of money and it needs to stop, yes. However the payments are all being made, and those payments don't actually add up to that much of our total budget. Mathematically speaking, future Social Security promises are far more of a problem. However, the problem with systemic deficit spending, is that at some point in the future, rates will gain more and more distance from zero, making future treasury notes sold much more costly to the government to repay.

2. Too many people go to college already. I know that isn't popular to say, but it's patently obvious, given the antics of current students. Clearly many of them are there to do anything but learn things.
We need to address the source of the increases:
a. Blank check government programs changed to set figure grants and loans, that force market competition rather than persistent tuition increases.
b. Tuition laws that force universities to drastically raise in state tuition, to keep within the allowable ratio with out of state tuition. They want to charge foreign students an arm and a leg. They are held back by these laws, so they raise the cost for everyone.

3. Worker pay stagnation is largely due to excessive illegal immigration, and will presumably correct somewhat as it goes down. However, the figures you likely have seen, that are based on household rather than per capita figures, show the problem to be greater than it actually is.

4. Income inequality is just a talking point. A few really rich guys have stockpiled a lot of wealth, but they are mostly all old. When they die, the money will run off to charity or to children, get dispersed, and so on. It's not an actual real concern. Wealth is not a finite thing. One person having some, doesn't keep someone else from having some too.

5. At some point we will need to extend our high school learning up through college, or perhaps maybe we could just actually teach the same thing we used to teach in school, instead of culturally appropriated bathroom diversity training.

6. Rent is up because the economy is up. This is normal and an non-problem. If it's really bad where you live, I suggest moving somewhere without rent control making the problem worse. Alternatively, earn more money. As you get older, you will make more, I assure you. Being young and poor is less of a problem than being old and poor.

7. The climate never stops changing. Making it warmer will be bad for some areas, and good for others. Such is the existence of man on this planet. /shrug

8. Bankruptcy isn't that big of a deal. You get a higher credit card rate for a few years. Big deal. Everyone still gets care.

9. There have been some outrageous instances of police getting off. But given they all work at different departments, it's just a smear to assume the same result as the few unfair instances. Meanwhile there are hundreds and thousands of other instances, where justice was properly served. Assuming the outliers are the norm, is intellectually dishonest, and that is why BLM has accomplished nothing.

10. I would argue for higher imprisonment rates, but dramatically lower sentences. We don't need to turn every two bit offender in to a gang banging Al Capone.

11. The economy is NOT failing. What on earth are you on about? Is this thread a necro???

Anyone who claims the economy is failing and the sky is falling is simply wanting the handouts they think socialism and communism will give them because that works every single time its ever been used.