Could physical media actually die out?

[Deleted]

Services like iCloud, and cloud computing in general are on the rise. The new MacBook Pro is rumoured to be shipping without an optical drive, just a flash drive. The amount of data you can store online is increasing, and the prices for storage space are going down significantly, if not totally free. Internet speeds are also increasing. People prefer MP3s over physical CD's. You can easily sync and stream data from one device, such as your computer, to your television.

And as each day goes by, all of this is becoming easier, cheaper, and more reliable. Lastly, digital distribution is on the rise, negating the need to obtain physical copies of books, movies, CDs etc. Receiving content at the click of a mouse, is more convenient and time saving than going all the way to the store, especially in an age where everyone is always busy.

During our lifetimes, many formats have come and gone. From the casette, to the VHS, to the CD, even physical copies of magazines & books (Wikipedia etc). And now it seems that all forms of physical media will soon be phased out.

-What are your thoughts on the likelihood of physical media dying out?
-And what is your personal opinion of this trend?

[Bathory]

I think it very well could. I think the option will always be there, but I think the large majority is shifting and making it's way there.

I don't think it's a bad thing. I think this is leaning closer toward us leaving absolutely no trace if something catastrophic happens. I always wondered, sci fi wise, how an advanced civilization could leave nothing behind. I suppose this is how.

Of course we're not there yet, but how fascinating it is to be alive right now.

[solari]

seems like all you do is seat in front of the same computer, in the same room, in the same place all the time. a lot of professionals travel and need information right away and fast, so physical media is still an excellent form of data transportation. same thing for when you have no internet access and are miles away from a wifi. oh and where do you think all that icloud data is stored? we could reduce the sizes of servers significantly by using ssd's but that's about it, we still need reliable physical media to store our crap. yes, most of our information roughly 99% of the shit in the internet is crap.

[Makaio]

I'll bite on one small piece of this idea, books.

Examples of literature date back to the early bronze age. This means we have nearly 5,000 year old books.

How long do you think the Facebook servers are going to remain operational? How many technology shifts will occur during the next 5,000 years, and how much data will shift each time? I think most of the data that is currently being stored has very little long term value. Some of the data we're storing, though, has great long-term value. Scientific journals, for instance, and publishing experimental data and the conclusions being drawn from that data. This would be of great value to future civilizations, so they can understand our times a little better.

My overall thought is that virtual and physical media will coexist. There is no great reason for only one to survive. We can find fantastic uses for both.

[Djinni]

As great as Wikipedia is, it still isn't recognised as a suitable reference medium for any academic studies, Journals, Magazines, Books and Newspapers etc.. while they might shift their medium to being online will always have their place.

My thoughts...
For as long as there are data and speed caps set by ISP's and we are reliant on a single cable medium to deliver the internet to our homes we will need some physical medium to store and backup data on.

As much as I am for moving everything into the decentralised realm of the internet... I can't help but think what might be left in 1000 years or so to record our presence once all the books etc... have been replaced by their digital counterparts.

[2Loud]

I think it very well could. I think the option will always be there, but I think the large majority is shifting and making it's way there.

I don't think it's a bad thing. I think this is leaning closer toward us leaving absolutely no trace if something catastrophic happens. I always wondered, sci fi wise, how an advanced civilization could leave nothing behind. I suppose this is how.

Of course we're not there yet, but how fascinating it is to be alive right now.

For those that don't know "Cloud" is a representation of the internet. When people refer to cloud computing or storage, all it means is that the data is stored somewhere inside the internet. You might think of the internet of 1 big network but in reality it's hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of networks all connected together. So if I get Apple to go store all my data on their "iCloud," it really just sits on a File Server in some server farm. Data ALWAYS requires a physical medium.

[Deleted]

seems like all you do is seat in front of the same computer, in the same room, in the same place all the time. a lot of professionals travel and need information right away and fast, so physical media is still an excellent form of data transportation. same thing for when you have no internet access and are miles away from a wifi. oh and where do you think all that icloud data is stored? we could reduce the sizes of servers significantly by using ssd's but that's about it, we still need reliable physical media to store our crap. yes, most of our information roughly 99% of the shit in the internet is crap.

A lot of professionals run around with 500$+ smartphones with 3G/4G. Wifi? Who needs Wifi in 2012 where everyting can be done through mobile internet?

Sure, if you live in a desert with no coverage, a newspaper wouldn't hurt, but in all other cases, it is not needed.

I can turn your arguement right back at you. Yeah, servers take up a lot of space, and they use a lot of harddrives and components. Just how many ink and paper do you think is wasted by making newspapers and the likes? Yeah it can be recycled, but it isn't always done that way, much less for CD/DVD.

[Sorrior]

I hope not. I mean if say the internet goes out or servers are closed some games won't even run anymore. What about losing access to your data. In short while it could i sure hope not.

[Djinni]

A lot of professionals run around with 500$+ smartphones with 3G/4G. Wifi? Who needs Wifi in 2012 where everyting can be done through mobile internet?

Sure, if you live in a desert with no coverage, a newspaper wouldn't hurt, but in all other cases, it is not needed.

I can turn your arguement right back at you. Yeah, servers take up a lot of space, and they use a lot of harddrives and components. Just how many ink and paper do you think is wasted by making newspapers and the likes? Yeah it can be recycled, but it isn't always done that way, much less for CD/DVD.

Just a small counter to this argument... but there are still plenty of places in developed countries (USA, UK, heck lots of Europe) where there is no cell coverage and very limited cable connections.

[Deleted]

Just a small counter to this argument... but there are still plenty of places in developed countries (USA, UK, heck lots of Europe) where there is no cell coverage and very limited cable connections.

Yeah but that's today. And it is totally true by todays standards, which is why both still exist.

But I think in the future (and by that I do not mean in 10 years, more like 50) there should be cell coverage everywhere. Heck even in underdeveloped countries (Or whatever to call them in English) they have phones. I've been to Africa last month, these people had virtually nothing but nearly everyone had a phone. Ok, they were like Nokia 3310's and stuff, but in 50 years they should be having smartphones when we have the next generation.

[Brewski]

Services like iCloud, and cloud computing in general are on the rise. The new MacBook Pro is rumoured to be shipping without an optical drive, just a flash drive. The amount of data you can store online is increasing, and the prices for storage space are going down significantly, if not totally free. Internet speeds are also increasing. People prefer MP3s over physical CD's. You can easily sync and stream data from one device, such as your computer, to your television.

And as each day goes by, all of this is becoming easier, cheaper, and more reliable. Lastly, digital distribution is on the rise, negating the need to obtain physical copies of books, movies, CDs etc. Receiving content at the click of a mouse, is more convenient and time saving than going all the way to the store, especially in an age where everyone is always busy.

During our lifetimes, many formats have come and gone. From the casette, to the VHS, to the CD, even physical copies of magazines & books (Wikipedia etc). And now it seems that all forms of physical media will soon be phased out.

-What are your thoughts on the likelihood of physical media dying out?
-And what is your personal opinion of this trend?

I'd actually argue against the book point. I agree with everything else, but there will always be books. If I had to choose between reading a physical book and an online e-book (which actually hurts my eyes), I'll go with a good ol' book.

[Deleted]

a lot of professionals travel and need information right away and fast

As a musician i rarely use physical media such as cds anymore. Everything is either usb stick or soundcloud if i need someone to get my material asap. And if i recieve anything? Exactly the same. Books will no doubt always be around in some form. But DVDs, BluRay, Cds? They'll soon be gone.

I guess you could call a USB drive physical media in some respects, but it's not really the conventional form. I fully expect USB flash drives to turn into credit card sized hard drives which strore several TB of information within 20-30 years. If you buy a film from a store it gets transferred to your card etc.

That's the way modern tech seems to be pushing at least.

[Sy]

this is not an "if" question, but a "when". except for a few examples, physical media WILL die out. i've even read that many of the popular magazines and newspapers expect that there won't be a profit to make on the physical market for pretty much any of them in like 10 years or so anymore (can't remember the actual time).

[Vetis]

at the moment its a terrible thing, trying to push no media.

Internet down = no games/work/entertainment for you+control over everything you own to a company even more than now sounds like a bad deal. No more grabbing a game on the way home from work, putting it in and playing. now you get to leave something downloading for hours on end.

The companies love it because they control it then, no cheap second hand games anymore and you'll find its the "industry" pushing this more than consumers. You think DRM is bad? wait until every game on every platform needs you to be logged in to play and its easy to see its heading this way.

The africans having mobile phones is a practical thing, the phones are basic but they use them for mobile banking, sending money to eachother, when services like that arent available. This means a big market and a reason for the companies to build towers. In the UK for example relatively little is now not covered that I doubt they see a worthwhile profit expanding against the cost of that expansion to cover the remaining pieces.

[Djinni]

Yeah but that's today. And it is totally true by todays standards, which is why both still exist.

But I think in the future (and by that I do not mean in 10 years, more like 50) there should be cell coverage everywhere. Heck even in underdeveloped countries (Or whatever to call them in English) they have phones. I've been to Africa last month, these people had virtually nothing but nearly everyone had a phone. Ok, they were like Nokia 3310's and stuff, but in 50 years they should be having smartphones when we have the next generation.

Total country cell coverage should have been achieved several years ago, all it would take is for Cell Phone companies to co-operate more with each other as opposed to competing.
Having the entire country (talking about UK here) have minimum 2mb broadband should have been achieved more than 10 years ago.

As for Africa yeah.... I found it funny when the local collection/ charities started collecting mobile phones when they would reject all other electronic equipment.

this is not an "if" question, but a "when". except for a few examples, physical media WILL die out. i've even read that many of the popular magazines and newspapers expect that there won't be a profit to make on the physical market for pretty much any of them in like 10 years or so anymore (can't remember the actual time).

Lots of newspapers have been predicting that for over a decade now... Surprise... most of them are still running.

[starlord]

i doubt it will completely. it doesnt sit well with me to have to depend on things like the internet and battery life/power forthings like books. my grandma still has books from the 40's. a kindle will probably go on the fritz in a few years.

[Deleted]

I'd actually argue against the book point. I agree with everything else, but there will always be books. If I had to choose between reading a physical book and an online e-book (which actually hurts my eyes), I'll go with a good ol' book.

Have you not tried the new Kindle? I've converted my library. Some 200 books takes up a lot of room.

Edit: I do have some books I keep for sentimental value. But my planned library is going to consist of sentimental books and e-reader docking stations. So anyone who comes into the library can pick one up off the stand and choose anything from the library.

---------- Post added 2012-03-31 at 11:56 PM ----------

i doubt it will completely. it doesnt sit well with me to have to depend on things like the internet and battery life/power forthings like books. my grandma still has books from the 40's. a kindle will probably go on the fritz in a few years.

Yeah but your kindle breaks, you get a new one and download your books from their servers. Their server crashed and they restore from their multiple fail safes.

I've a book from the mid 18th century, if I leave an ssd for 300 years and a book for 300 years, which do you think would be better preserved?:P

[Deleted]

Have you not tried the new Kindle? I've converted my library. Some 200 books takes up a lot of room.

Edit: I do have some books I keep for sentimental value. But my planned library is going to consist of sentimental books and e-reader docking stations. So anyone who comes into the library can pick one up off the stand and choose anything from the library.

---------- Post added 2012-03-31 at 11:56 PM ----------



Yeah but your kindle breaks, you get a new one and download your books from their servers. Their server crashed and they restore from their multiple fail safes.

I've a book from the mid 18th century, if I leave an ssd for 300 years and a book for 300 years, which do you think would be better preserved?:P

The book.

Within 300 years there'll be no way to hook up your SSD to any computer of that time, let alone have support for our current filesystem.

[Rennadrel]

Give it 10 years and digital media will dominate physical media. I think only vinyl records will still exist as a physical media.

[Cyanotical]

I'll bite on one small piece of this idea, books.

Examples of literature date back to the early bronze age. This means we have nearly 5,000 year old books.

How long do you think the Facebook servers are going to remain operational? How many technology shifts will occur during the next 5,000 years, and how much data will shift each time? I think most of the data that is currently being stored has very little long term value. Some of the data we're storing, though, has great long-term value. Scientific journals, for instance, and publishing experimental data and the conclusions being drawn from that data. This would be of great value to future civilizations, so they can understand our times a little better.

My overall thought is that virtual and physical media will coexist. There is no great reason for only one to survive. We can find fantastic uses for both.

there have been books for so long because we only discovered the EM spectrum recently in terms of human history, personally i think a shift from physical to virtual media is needed, aside from saving the trees, it reduces cost, and lets everyone have a say in culture

if civilization ends tomorrow, and we have to start over in a cave again, everything we know about science and technology will be discovered again, but perhaps somethings like atomic and biological weaponry, people dont need a head start in

As great as Wikipedia is, it still isn't recognised as a suitable reference medium for any academic studies, Journals, Magazines, Books and Newspapers etc.. while they might shift their medium to being online will always have their place.

My thoughts...
For as long as there are data and speed caps set by ISP's and we are reliant on a single cable medium to deliver the internet to our homes we will need some physical medium to store and backup data on.

As much as I am for moving everything into the decentralised realm of the internet... I can't help but think what might be left in 1000 years or so to record our presence once all the books etc... have been replaced by their digital counterparts.

Wikipedia is as much a valid source as any encyclopedia, perhaps more so due the the faster and heavier oversite, that view comes from aging teachers and professes who automatically discount anything on the internet, they still view it as the geek's toy from the early 90s

i agree with your thoughts on the need to store data locally, but those caps are artificially created by a company that is trying to maximize profits, the last argument i heard for bandwidth caps was "the internet is a precious resource, if we don't limit it, we will run out" (the scary part is im not making that up)

i would say that cloud computing is fully viable when these criteria are met:
1. high speed connections available to all people
2. true net neutrality
3. viable security of personal information

we already do plenty of cloud storage, often people listen to music on youtube, pandora, and last.fm instead of downloading it, we only download it when we want to take it with us, in say an mp3 player, but imagine if that mp3 player could play directly from pandora all the time, anywhere in the world, we wouldnt need to download anything