[BM] Hit and Exp: why you don't have to cap them

[Shootz]

The reason I say dodge is unreliable is because you can't count on it. Sure it might be very unlikely that you're going to take two hits in a row but your guild doesn't care how unlikely your death was when you're all corpse running back to the instance. You're 100% right that you'd have to change your play style in order to avoid sticky situations without hit + exp but it's a play style with less room for error and you're not gaining much (if anything). Better to have that extra room for error I would think.

[Inuyaki]

Base avoidance of 20%. Shuffle for 20%. Elusive Brew for 30%(35% with 2-set).

you remember you have 9% less against bosses?

[The Madgod]

Unless you can prove it changed, it should only be 2.4%, considering the old CTC cap.

[Chuupag]

you remember you have 9% less against bosses?

Are we really going to get into paper doll arguments now? Yes I'm aware...but it doesn't help to confuse people more by making that distinction in a theorycrafting discussion.

---------- Post added 2012-11-17 at 02:06 PM ----------

Unless you can prove it changed, it should only be 2.4%, considering the old CTC cap.

I'm pretty sure they did change it to 1.5% per level difference per miss, dodge, and parry, but the miss just makes it so they can never miss you.

[The Madgod]

I'm pretty sure they did change it to 1.5% per level difference per miss, dodge, and parry, but the miss just makes it so they can never miss you.

Fair enough. Either way, it doesn't really change much, does it? That 9% will be taken out regardless of your "spreadsheet avoidance", as you can call it, so the benefit of getting more EB stacks is just as powerful.

[Chuupag]

A 3 in 20 chance is a 1 in 6.66 chance. I know putting it in terms like 3 in 20 makes it seem less likely but the number is still 1 in 6.66, very close to 1 in 5.

The situation I'm describing happens often enough that it would be a problem without hit/exp. (I accept all of your points except for number 5, it's not about dying in 3 seconds it's about taking unpredictable damage that catches the rest of your raid team unaware and is a direct cause of your death or potentially someone else's death as suddenly all healers scramble to heal you)

So going back to the 4 conditions that have to be met...I'd like to put some numbers on them. Looking at world of logs for some average uptimes of shuffle and EB on Heroic Tay'ak, I'm seeing 80% is a good average for shuffle and 30% for EB, this is people with the hardcaps. As has already been said you would have slightly better uptime for both of those without the hard caps over the total course of the fight, I don't think that point is part of the discussion now. What we are trying to simulate now is the short term window you put forth on the Unseen Strike -> Overwhelming Assault -> Melee Swing. You said this would kill you without shuffle. The four points you agreed with were 1) don't have any chi, 2) do not have shuffle up, or shuffle less than 2 seconds left, 3) Keg Smash is off cooldown, 4) Power Strikes is on cooldown.

I can't really calculate the chance of you not having chi prior to that sequence happening, but I can say that you can easily make sure you have at least 1 chi prior to that happening by watching your boss timer of choice. We'll ballpark that at 20% likelihood.

Since we have the average shuffle uptime for that boss, the second point is easily calculated, and is roughly 20% likelihood of not having it at all, but since the point stipulates less than 2 seconds we'll bump that up to 30%.

Keg Smash is going to be almost always on cooldown unless you delay it to line up with this event or you get lucky. But since the event occurs once a minute, and you have 7.5 chances for it to line up, we'll throw a 20% ballpark on this too.

Power strikes is in a similar spot, but you can't even really delay this one that well without capping your energy. But since it is required to be on cooldown we will throw a 80% chance on this one.

So the chance of all 4 of these things happening is actually incredibly small, less than 1% chance using these rough estimates, and even less if you play it smartly, such as banking chi or saving elusive brew.

[Deleted]

And yes by not capping that stream will be slightly less consistent...but in the end it will be more. It's not that difficult to 'pay attention' to a missed KS, turn up your volume...it makes a different sound.

Progression tanking is all about consistency tho. That's the exact reason why top tanks always choose the consistent path, even tho the other one may be better. Take DKs for example. Mastery and avoidance are equal in terms of mitigation, but avoidance also lowers mana cost. Yet every top DK chooses mastery, because avoidance is RNG.

And why is RNG bad? Imagine you are below 30% health. Imagine you are raiding heroic mode progression and the boss can and will kill you in two swings. Imagine you miss 3 times a row just then with a skill that could save your life. You just wiped the raid, pretty much. And if you are below 10% health, even a single miss can do it for you. And if you are seriously raiding heroic progresion, you will be in that situation very often.


As a tank consistency is always better than the overall performance, at least in progression where this stuff actually matters.

[Chuupag]

Progression tanking is all about consistency tho. That's the exact reason why top tanks always choose the consistent path, even tho the other one may be better. Take DKs for example. Mastery and avoidance are equal in terms of mitigation, but avoidance also lowers mana cost. Yet every top DK chooses mastery, because avoidance is RNG.

And why is RNG bad? Imagine you are below 30% health. Imagine you are raiding heroic mode progression and the boss can and will kill you in two swings. Imagine you miss 3 times a row just then with a skill that could save your life. You just wiped the raid, pretty much. And if you are below 10% health, even a single miss can do it for you. And if you are seriously raiding heroic progresion, you will be in that situation very often.


As a tank consistency is always better than the overall performance, at least in progression where this stuff actually matters.

Quoting post #13...epic.

[The Madgod]

Progression tanking is all about consistency tho. That's the exact reason why top tanks always choose the consistent path, even tho the other one may be better. Take DKs for example. Mastery and avoidance are equal in terms of mitigation, but avoidance also lowers mana cost. Yet every top DK chooses mastery, because avoidance is RNG.

And why is RNG bad? Imagine you are below 30% health. Imagine you are raiding heroic mode progression and the boss can and will kill you in two swings. Imagine you miss 3 times a row just then with a skill that could save your life. You just wiped the raid, pretty much. And if you are below 10% health, even a single miss can do it for you. And if you are seriously raiding heroic progresion, you will be in that situation very often.


As a tank consistency is always better than the overall performance, at least in progression where this stuff actually matters.

Almost ironically, I remember a discussion a while back which stated that tanks in progression, especially the bleeding edge progression, know that due to their gear choices, there will be wipes where they WILL die. It's not as if going one way solves ALL your problems. It doesn't say how much better it is. It's just better for certain aspects.

As well, the resource generation RNG is far less likely to kill you as damage taken RNG is. Resource generation is a very variable thing. Both haste and hit/expertise benefit it, so what you lack in consistency you make up for in base resource generation. As Chuupag has roughly mathed out, the likelyhood that a clutch situation will screw you over big time is very small.

Quoting post #13...epic.

Play nice, sir!

[Chuupag]

Play nice, sir!

Just getting a bit tired of the Johnny come latelys who read the first page, then try to start up stuff that was already talked about. You would think that seeing 10 pages on something might make people pause before posting. If you aren't going to spend the time to read the whole discussion don't post IMO.

[Inuyaki]

[QUOTE=Chuupag;19135135]Are we really going to get into paper doll arguments now? Yes I'm aware...but it doesn't help to confuse people more by making that distinction in a theorycrafting discussion.[COLOR="red"]
Thats a big difference...
With 70% avoidance there is a 9% chance that a boss hits you twice in a row, with 60% its 16%, which makes a huge significance!
You were the one that tried to tell us, avoidance is pretty reliable with over 70%.

[ro9ue]

somewhat unrelated but i have no idea why hit and expertise are even still in that game

[Chuupag]

Thats a big difference...
With 70% avoidance there is a 9% chance that a boss hits you twice in a row, with 60% its 16%, which makes a huge significance!
You were the one that tried to tell us, avoidance is pretty reliable with over 70%.

I think you just made my point though. Losing 10% avoidance you only increase your chance of consecutive hits by 7%.

And this is besides the point that these are not new from the raw numbers perspective. You have always had depression, so it can be taken as a given and completely factored out. You just have 9% less "real" avoidance than your paper doll says.

[Shootz]

You can't say that 80% shuffle uptime means you have an 80% chance that it is up at any given time in the fight. This is the entire reason your argument falls short. The reason shuffle has 80% instead of 100% for that fight is because it falls off at that point of the fight but not the rest. (Except phase 2) You look at overall numbers and try to apply them situationally, that's why your reasoning doesn't translate to the game.

[Chuupag]

You can't say that 80% shuffle uptime means you have an 80% chance that it is up at any given time in the fight. This is the entire reason your argument falls short. The reason shuffle has 80% instead of 100% for that fight is because it falls off at that point of the fight but not the rest. (Except phase 2) You look at overall numbers and try to apply them situationally, that's why your reasoning doesn't translate to the game.

Irrelevant. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you would never have shuffle up prior to that occurrence. The chance the the other 3 things happening at that same point is still less than 5% of the time regardless of your hit/exp. And even after that you would still need to lose to the 3 in 20 RNG.

[Shootz]

Also, keg smash is almost always off cool down since a tempest storm or an unseen strike will give you around 8 seconds of not being able to attack anyway.

[Chuupag]

Also, keg smash is almost always off cool down since a tempest storm or an unseen strike will give you around 8 seconds of not being able to attack anyway.

I think you can do the math yourself...it's not that hard, but if you want KS as well it changes it to a 24% chance that you would have to lose the 3 in 20, or 3.6% of the time.

[Shootz]

All that needs to happen in these situations for you to be screwed is a) you have less than 2 chi and b) your first global misses. You can't consistently remove a) without playing 100% perfectly so just remove b) and your guild has no reason to swap you for a tank with more armor and stam than you.

[Chuupag]

All that needs to happen in these situations for you to be screwed is a) you have less than 2 chi and b) your first global misses. You can't consistently remove a) without playing 100% perfectly so just remove b) and your guild has no reason to swap you for a tank with more armor and stam than you.

So you no longer agree with points 1 through 4 because the math isn't agreeing with you?

[Shootz]

Reread your points again, the only one I haven't covered is power strikes because its cool down is irrelevant if you miss. It's a slightly better situation if its off cool down but it's still an extra global at the very least. It's not the worst situation but its definitely a bad one.