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  1. #1
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    [BM] Hit and Exp: why you don't have to cap them

    So there seems to be alot of confusion, misinformation, and just honest misunderstanding going on about hit and exp as a Brewmaster. A long long time ago, on the beta, hit and exp were absolutely necessary. Several builds later once it went live it was found out that the math behind the call for hard caps was bad, and that hit and exp weren't really needed nearly as much as people now thought. And it seems like one of those notions that once in the consciousness of the masses...is very difficult to get out. So here is the arguments and the math.

    The general arguments for the caps are that a missed Keg Smash = death, and that hit and exp give better mitigation uptime. Both of these are false, and they sorta get explained hand in hand.

    First let's get some numbers in here. 1% hit and 1% exp are both 340 points. 1% haste is 425. 1% crit is 600. 1% mastery is 1200. Dodge and Parry have diminishing returns...so their numbers will vary person to person...but we don't stack them anyways so it doesn't matter. To get to the hit and exp hard caps require 7650 points, or going 7.5/7.5 takes 5100 points.

    Having the hard caps means you will never be miss/parry/dodge by a lvl 93 raid boss for your yellow attacks(and white if you use a 2hander). But is that really all that important? Proponents of the caps say yes because a missed Keg Smash = death. I disagree. A missed Keg Smash is simply a loss of 1 chi, 8 energy, and a gcd. Now that may seem like a lot at first glance, but it does not mean instant death.

    Lets say you went in completely hit and exp naked, which is doubtful because it occurs naturally on our gear, but for the sake of this demonstration we are going in 0 hit and 0 exp using a 2hander. Our yellow, chi producing, attacks have a 22.5% chance to miss/dodge/parry in this circumstance. Missed jabs and expel harms are just a 8 energy and 1 gcd loss because we immediately hit them again, so no biggie, but let's look at Keg Smash. In a 6 min fight, we will miss 10 Keg Smashes, so that is 10 chi, 80 energy, and 10 gcds lost. But let's say since we didn't need that 7650 points in hit/exp we threw them all into haste, that would give us a whooping 18% haste, which is just under 2 energy/sec. Over those 360 seconds that is 720 energy, which is an extra 18 jabs, which in fairness we will prob miss 4 of them, reducing us 8 energy each, so we end up with roughly 17 extra chi in 6 minutes. Going from hard caps to 7650 extra haste you actually gain 7 chi in 6 minutes, or just over 1 chi/min.

    Hit and exp also have no affect on Elusive Brew because white attacks are on a single roll system, meaning you don't have to hit...then it's determined if the hit was actually a crit. If you have 25% crit and 0 hit/exp you will still have roughly 25% white attack crits at the end of the day as your non-crits are pushed off the combat table before your crits are.

    The last major argument is that hit and exp provide better mitigation(shuffle and EB) uptime. It only takes 20 chi/min to have 100% uptime on shuffle, which you can achieve completely naked, so how could adding additional haste and chi make it harder to maintain the uptime? Yes yes guard, purifying brew, lvl 30 talents make this harder to keep a 100% shuffle uptime...but again how can adding more haste and more chi make it more difficult? And as was said above hit/exp have no affect on EB.

    I'm completely expecting the influx of 'what if you need those 2 chi right now and you don't get them and you die' type of arguments, but such a situation is so very unlikely to happen and could have been avoided by making sure you always have at least a few seconds of shuffle up...which you should have anyway. If you so desire I can give you maths about the unlikelihood of X consecutive misses given any set of hit/exp. The only real need for hit/exp is convenience...and if you're willing to make that argument I'm willing to accept it. It is annoying, but tanks since the dawn of WoW have always been missing, getting dodged, and getting parried, so it's nothing really all that new to me.
    Last edited by Chuupag; 2012-11-10 at 10:27 PM.

  2. #2
    Putting aside "min-maxing" for a moment, i am so extremely annoyed when my spells "Miss/Dodge/Parry" that i would gladly lose a big chunk of my dps/defense just to be completely rid of my spells/attacks failing to hit the target.

    Back to your post, very interesting thoughts and i would indeed like to see the math behind it - just out of morbid curiosity xD
    Thank you for researching all of this.
    Last edited by Aleksej89; 2012-11-10 at 11:07 PM.

  3. #3
    I think your ignoring the cost of a missed GCD and its impact on energy, plus the RNG possibility of multiple happening in a row. If there's anything you can learn from Windwalker, it's that more haste to make up for missed GCDs isn't a very good idea because the GCD isn't going any lower. That's not to say that your entire calculation is wrong, but it's just not as simple as making up the lost energy with more haste.

  4. #4
    I'd be really interested in people testing this out. Frankly if I could avoid juggling hit-expertise it would help my sanity if nothing else. The biggest issue I see is at the pull. Sitting for 4-5 seconds without guard/shuffle due to luck could lead to a very quick wipe.

  5. #5
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Totaltotemic View Post
    I think your ignoring the cost of a missed GCD and its impact on energy, plus the RNG possibility of multiple happening in a row. If there's anything you can learn from Windwalker, it's that more haste to make up for missed GCDs isn't a very good idea because the GCD isn't going any lower. That's not to say that your entire calculation is wrong, but it's just not as simple as making up the lost energy with more haste.
    How many Tiger Palms are you spamming? B/c if you are playing BrM correctly you should be gcd locked with Tiger Palm being your filler. Are you really that shook up about losing a Tiger Palm and having to replace a jab? Also my offspec is heals...so I don't know shit about Windwalker.

    And oooo...the consecutive misses argument. Even with 0/0, the chance of a miss happening immediately following a miss is 5%. So about once every 20 Keg Smashes, or roughly once every 3 minutes. The chance of a 3rd miss is a little over 1%, or once every 15 minutes. And yes while these numbers aren't great...you can't actually get to 0/0, and are most likely sitting around 4% each even reforging away. Which would be more like 2% chance of 2 consecutive misses and a .3% chance for 3 consecutive.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-10 at 06:18 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Aurlon View Post
    I'd be really interested in people testing this out. Frankly if I could avoid juggling hit-expertise it would help my sanity if nothing else. The biggest issue I see is at the pull. Sitting for 4-5 seconds without guard/shuffle due to luck could lead to a very quick wipe.
    You can always expel harm prior to the pull to be sitting at 1 chi as insurance.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-10 at 06:20 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Aleksej89 View Post
    Back to your post, very interesting thoughts and i would indeed like to see the math behind it - just out of morbid curiosity xD
    Thank you for researching all of this.
    The math is basically up in the spreadsheet over from Elitist Jerks. Since the error was found it has had hit/exp below haste and crit for most stat combinations. This was just a summing up.
    Last edited by Chuupag; 2012-11-11 at 12:23 AM.

  6. #6
    Overall damage taken isn't the end-all metric, not when your healers don't even notice a +/-10% difference in damage taken.

    That's not to say that anything posted above is wrong, but it's going to be perceived that way due to the fact that living is binary (you do or you don't) and multiple stat combinations are tolerable.

    Hit/expertise focus primarily on short-scale windows, which the overall scale doesn't show.

  7. #7
    I've been following all the discussion, but haven't been participating in them so far. Where you say that everything here is backed up by the math in the EJ spreadsheet, I find that the sheet suggests me to go hit/exp soft cap and then haste or crit.

    Is that just my gear or am I using the spreadsheet wrong? Armory for reference

  8. #8
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coenani View Post
    I've been following all the discussion, but haven't been participating in them so far. Where you say that everything here is backed up by the math in the EJ spreadsheet, I find that the sheet suggests me to go hit/exp soft cap and then haste or crit.

    Is that just my gear or am I using the spreadsheet wrong? Armory for reference
    I just put your numbers into the most recent version of the spreadsheet and it did indeed want to put you at the soft caps. I then put them in the version from about a month ago and it is saying that haste/crit is better.

    Agi : 1.410206468
    Exp : 0.822962107
    Hit : 0.822962107
    Crit : 0.80549918
    Haste : 0.772892793
    Parry : 0.622647344
    Armor : 0.615837014
    Dodge : 0.584282063
    Mastery : 0.339865125

    vs

    Agi : 1.374389411
    Crit : 0.787653933
    Haste : 0.744779466
    Exp : 0.741325591
    Hit : 0.741325591
    Parry : 0.633846991
    Armor : 0.625172747
    Dodge : 0.584333741
    Mastery : 0.344988952


    The only thing he changed was:

    - a couple of minor bugs were fixed, like an adjusted number of Swift Reflexes, and a miscalculation in the Spinning Crane Kick optimal use (which is often 0 or 1 anyway)

    - some time ago, wepon DPS scaling changed ; i noticed that last week while i was doing some tests on my Monk. This was in no patch note, and MMOC's datamining doesn't get weapon DPS scaling for Brewmasters since it was modified in the last weeks of the MoP Beta. I don't know when it happened, but it happened, some time between last week and two months ago. The spreadsheet now has the same scaling as in-game Brewmasters.

    But I don't know why those would bump hit/exp back up above. Gonna send him a PM and ask if anything else changed.
    Last edited by Chuupag; 2012-11-11 at 01:13 AM.

  9. #9
    Well, I do not completely disagree to what you say. But you also exeggerate, of course a missed keg is no instant death.

    But I actually do not understand your goal: So you say if you reforge from hit/exp to haste, you gain 1 chi/minute. Yet you later say you have more than enough chi to have all your necessary buffs up all the time.
    So in other words you obviously sacrifice dps (which is a factor in many fights), and you still risk consecutive misses, and risk aggro problems in the first phases of a fight, and you gain nothing? Why is that better?

  10. #10
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SSHA778 View Post
    Overall damage taken isn't the end-all metric, not when your healers don't even notice a +/-10% difference in damage taken.

    That's not to say that anything posted above is wrong, but it's going to be perceived that way due to the fact that living is binary (you do or you don't) and multiple stat combinations are tolerable.

    Hit/expertise focus primarily on short-scale windows, which the overall scale doesn't show.
    Oh yea I'm not suggesting that anyone who does not reforge away all possible hit/exp should reroll, I just think that the hard caps became such a Gri-gris that some light needs to be shed on it.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-10 at 08:21 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Puri View Post
    Well, I do not completely disagree to what you say. But you also exeggerate, of course a missed keg is no instant death.

    But I actually do not understand your goal: So you say if you reforge from hit/exp to haste, you gain 1 chi/minute. Yet you later say you have more than enough chi to have all your necessary buffs up all the time.
    So in other words you obviously sacrifice dps (which is a factor in many fights), and you still risk consecutive misses, and risk aggro problems in the first phases of a fight, and you gain nothing? Why is that better?
    I like to question the status quo, nothing was every learned by following the crowd. Yes you have enough chi for the basics, but show me a BrM who doesn't want more chi and I'll eat my hat. At minimum that is 1 more purifying brew/min, not to mention the increased uptime on EB from having more haste/crit. 18% haste would give you 40 more seconds of EB over that same 6 min fight just from giving you more auto-attacks with which to crit. So that is roughly an extra 3% dodge over the fight just from the incidental haste.
    Last edited by Chuupag; 2012-11-11 at 01:27 AM.

  11. #11
    Just a quick response...

    This exact same argument could be used to argue why dps don't need to be hit capped. IE the potential to miss is so small, and you can just cast the same spell/attack over again. The reason that dps (excluding aff locks -- go DOTs that can be refreshed at anytime under 50%) want to hit cap hard is so that they remove all variance in their rotation / throughput. That missed 150K nuke-crit every now and then doesn't matter much, so why bother hit capping?

    People will say that it doesn't matter. People will say that it does. You know when it certainly matters? When the boss is under 150k hp and charging towards your ass because everyone else is dead.

    You're arguing this same argument but from another side. You're arguing that missing that attack, possibly dropping some of your mitigation and thus taking that 150K hit every now and then doesn't matter much overall, so why bother removing that variance? My argument is that it matters a whole lot more than the dps that isn't hit capped. You know why? If you take that hit and lack of mitigation kills you, you've pretty much just wiped the raid -- at minimum you've burned a bres that could have been avoided.

    Your job as a tank is to mitigate as much damage and stay alive a long as possible. If you can do that without hit/exp capping then you're golden. If you can remember to hit jab-jab after you notice that missed keg, all the better.

    If, on the other hand, you don't want to have to look for misses every now and then and just want to assume that you can hit keg-smash followed by BoK to refresh your stagger, get the caps and never worry about it again.

    Cheers,

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Chuupag View Post
    I like to question the status quo, nothing was every learned by following the crowd. Yes you have enough chi for the basics, but show me a BrM who doesn't want more chi and I'll eat my hat. At minimum that is 1 more purifying brew/min, not to mention the increased uptime on EB from having more haste/crit. 18% haste would give you 40 more seconds of EB over that same 6 min fight just from giving you more auto-attacks with which to crit. So that is roughly an extra 3% dodge over the fight just from the incidental haste.
    I see what you want to show. I simply am still not convinced that it is better. You are probably right, going from hit/exp to haste might average out to be better on a single target fight. But I am not convinced that relying on luck (or yes, you might argue correctly, it is rather hoping for no bad luck) is something a tank should strive for if there is another choice.

    It is a bit like when you would have stopped stacking defense at 99.9% in favor of 0.1% parry/dodge when it was necessary to gain crit-immunity, because you argue that one in a thousand hits doesn't matter. Well, yes, statistically they are the same. Yet is is simpler to cope with two consecutive hits than one "double"-hit.

    You are right, being dodged and parried always was something every tank was facing. But it only had a minimal influence on their defense performance. Then they introduced the DK, which is in many ways similar to the monk tank. DKs had to rely on their death strike, I cannot even imagine how many wipes were caused because it missed. So the game designer also realised it, and gave the defensive part of it a 100% chance.

    So I think they should simply change the system, so that chi generating abilities always generate chi, even if they are dodged or parried (at least for BMs).
    Last edited by Puri; 2012-11-11 at 01:58 AM.

  13. #13
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyanisse View Post
    Just a quick response...

    This exact same argument could be used to argue why dps don't need to be hit capped. IE the potential to miss is so small, and you can just cast the same spell/attack over again. The reason that dps (excluding aff locks -- go DOTs that can be refreshed at anytime under 50%) want to hit cap hard is so that they remove all variance in their rotation / throughput. That missed 150K nuke-crit every now and then doesn't matter much, so why bother hit capping?

    People will say that it doesn't matter. People will say that it does. You know when it certainly matters? When the boss is under 150k hp and charging towards your ass because everyone else is dead.

    You're arguing this same argument but from another side. You're arguing that missing that attack, possibly dropping some of your mitigation and thus taking that 150K hit every now and then doesn't matter much overall, so why bother removing that variance? My argument is that it matters a whole lot more than the dps that isn't hit capped. You know why? If you take that hit and lack of mitigation kills you, you've pretty much just wiped the raid -- at minimum you've burned a bres that could have been avoided.

    Your job as a tank is to mitigate as much damage and stay alive a long as possible. If you can do that without hit/exp capping then you're golden. If you can remember to hit jab-jab after you notice that missed keg, all the better.

    If, on the other hand, you don't want to have to look for misses every now and then and just want to assume that you can hit keg-smash followed by BoK to refresh your stagger, get the caps and never worry about it again.

    Cheers,
    I think the difference between a dps reaching caps and a tank is 2 different issues. As a dps you have limited time to do your damage, every spell counts and a missed attack is basically you doing nothing for 2 seconds, BrM tanking is different. We spam Tiger Palm if we have nothing else to do, our gcds aren't really that valuable, and as long as I have a steady stream on chi incoming I'm a happy panda. And yes by not capping that stream will be slightly less consistent...but in the end it will be more. It's not that difficult to 'pay attention' to a missed KS, turn up your volume...it makes a different sound.
    Last edited by Chuupag; 2012-11-11 at 01:59 AM.

  14. #14
    Keg smash is two chi. you said yourself gear and exp is on a lot of gear now so having 0% hit/exp isn't going to happen, nor can you reforge 100% of a stat so gaining the full 7650 isn't going to happen ever. take that value down to 5100 which is what most people go to and i think your argument is valid but not realistically something to aim for. for me eliminating that small chance that shuffle could fall off on top of how tight most fights enrages are (heroics) I'd value hit/exp much more highly than that extra 7 chi.

    also in my current gear I wouldn't gain any haste by reforging out of it, but I'm open to see your math behind crit/mastery vs exp/hit.

  15. #15
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    So I got a response back from Ven at EJ, the dude who wrote the spreadsheet, and I know why Coenani you were getting hit/exp higher with the most recent version. He said he changed the default for the statue cell from .8 to .9. This really shows that hit and exp are statue stats...not personal survival stats. Go ahead and put a 0 in for the statue, IE don't take it into consideration for the values. This is what your personal survival stats are at that point. Now I'm not saying to discount the statue...but I hadn't even given it much thought when I was playing with the numbers. I think alot of people think that hit/exp are valuable in and of themselves for your own survival...when in actuality they are not.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyanisse View Post
    This exact same argument could be used to argue why dps don't need to be hit capped. IE the potential to miss is so small, and you can just cast the same spell/attack over again. The reason that dps (excluding aff locks -- go DOTs that can be refreshed at anytime under 50%) want to hit cap hard is so that they remove all variance in their rotation / throughput. That missed 150K nuke-crit every now and then doesn't matter much, so why bother hit capping?

    People will say that it doesn't matter. People will say that it does. You know when it certainly matters? When the boss is under 150k hp and charging towards your ass because everyone else is dead.
    Damage dealers shouldn't care about reliability ever,because no matter what the dps will vary a lot due to procs/crits and other stuff. Also that 150k boss health example is kind of pointless since the chance this will happen is close to zero.
    The reason damage dealers cap hit/exp is because those stats are usually the best dps stats by far.
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  17. #17
    As i mentioned before i just find missing so annoying that i really don't want to have it happen (or parry/dodge).

    While your theory might be optimal for some extreme cases, i will always pick not having miss/parry/dodge issues

    Also, plx report bug for taunt and spell interrupt missing as monk

  18. #18
    Mechagnome Chuupag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aleksej89 View Post
    As i mentioned before i just find missing so annoying that i really don't want to have it happen (or parry/dodge).

    While your theory might be optimal for some extreme cases, i will always pick not having miss/parry/dodge issues

    Also, plx report bug for taunt and spell interrupt missing as monk
    Convenience is a perfectly reasonable opinion, and I will most likely end up between 4-5 for hit and 6-8 for exp just for convenience and dps sake (I'm looking at you challenge runs). It is annoying, but in the end hit/exp are not survival stats...they are dps and raid utility stats.

  19. #19
    The Patient Zumzar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuupag View Post
    Hit and exp have no affect on shuffle or EB uptime. That stat points you put in hit/exp could be thrown into haste and you would gain chi/min. And crit is on single roll system so hit/exp have no affect on EB either.
    I might be a fucking retard and have no clue what a "single-roll" system is, but correct me if I'm wrong. Exp/hit affect the amount of attacks you effectively HIT the target with. If crit % stays the same, more hits will inevitable result in more crits over a 5 minute fight, no?

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-11 at 11:07 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuupag View Post
    Parry does not double dip anymore, that is old information. You don't need even 7.5, those stats would get you more mitigation and survivability by putting those points into haste and crit.
    In 10-man raids these days Chuupag, survivability and mitigation is not all that matters. A tank should be able to pull out some decent numbers, for progress raids to be able to make enrage timers. I'd definitely like to see logs of a Monk ignoring 7.5 % hit/exp in a top end PvE guild.

    Furthermore, it seems like your post is looking at Brewmasters like their only job is to stay alive. This is the real misconception of the post in my honest opinion. Tanks are not like that anymore. I don't know if you realize how much affect hit/exp have on your HPS (through Guards on raid)? Well, I can tell you it's HUGE! And at the end of the day, tank deaths are definitely not the most common reason for wipes these days. So, to narrow it down, you have two options:

    1. More survivability for you personally, but low DPS and HPS.
    2. Lower survivability for you personallly, but much higher DPS and HPS.

    It might just be me, but in 10-man raiding, I'd go for option 2. It might be different in 25m.

    And please remember we're talking soft cap here - not hard cap. I am definitely convinced, after much testing, that Haste > Exp, past 7.5 %, though I will be trying to get the exp hard cap at higher ilvls, so I can push my DPS/HPS even more.

    Looking forward to your reply.

    /Zumzar
    Last edited by Zumzar; 2012-11-11 at 01:42 PM.
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  20. #20
    since when does a keg smash only give you 1 chi ?

    every keg smash gives you 2 chi

    so to follow your calculations:

    missing 10 keg smash means 20 chi lost
    assuming you really have 0 haste on your gear and can reforge it all into haste you get as you say about 2 energy/sec
    this leads to 720 extra energy. as this energy is only used for jabs we get 18 jabs or 18 chi (assuming all of these hit which is very unlikly as we have no hit & expertise caps)

    So tell me how losing 20 chi is good for gaining 18 chi if we are extremly lucky ?

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