Mega-Thread: Gun Control Thread

[Cthulhu 2020]

Yet the University of Chicago paper I linked showed that gun laws were not the likely cause of the decline.

Interesting read.

While it is a theoretical and analytic paper, it does present some good arguments. It also does say that the introduction of conceal carry laws did nothing for the rates either.

What I find interesting is his analysis of things he believes did decrease homicide rates, namely the increase in police force during that time, the decline of crack use, the increase in prison population, and the legalization of abortion, the last two being the most significant contributors.

His supporting argument for why the Brady Hand gun law had zero effect on homicide rates was the existence of the black market. While I won't argue that many denied a gun through a normal dealer didn't pursue a gun in other fashions, it's dishonest to claim that all would have (In reference to his belief that the Brady law had ZERO effect). His analysis of the data also takes into account the overall decline in homicide rates, but he doesn't break down the homicide rates into types, and says nothing about why gun homicide rates dropped precipitously but others stayed the same.

[GreatOak]

Implementing a UBC wouldn't cost much or make it difficult for normal people to access guns. Why not at least try to see if it works when it's not even hindering the ability for law abiding people to use their second amendment right? It's literally not limiting our right to keep and bear arms at all, and there's not much more room for abuse than the government has already.

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Yeah most unbiased , credible studies I've read come to similar conclusions on gun control. The problems are largely results of socioeconomic conditions rather than gun availability , as if that wasn't common sense already

[Rukentuts]

Implementing a UBC wouldn't cost much or make it difficult for normal people to access guns. Why not at least try to see if it works when it's not even hindering the ability for law abiding people to use their second amendment right? It's literally not limiting our right to keep and bear arms at all, and there's not much more room for abuse than the government has already.

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Yeah most unbiased , credible studies I've read come to similar conclusions on gun control. The problems are largely results of socioeconomic conditions rather than gun availability , as if that wasn't common sense already

Neither would tracking all those purchases by serial number, and it would do leaps and bounds towards tracking loss and crime.

[rhandric]

Yeah, it's probably just a big coincidence that the sharp decline began the exact same year the law was put into effect.

Not gonna say there weren't other factors, but this argument isn't some kind of ultimate trump card. You need to find another explanation for such a precipitous decline.

See, I made that argument because I saw the explanations and papers others provided, before your comment which I replied to. I figured that, since others provided that information, it'd be redundant for me to link it as well.

[GreatOak]

Neither would tracking all those purchases by serial number, and it would do leaps and bounds towards tracking loss and crime.

We have a soft registry and licensing system here in Illinois. I'm pretty sure we're the only state with one. That sounds a lot less annoying than what we have now. My only concern is the amount of room for abuse, but I'm sure that can be limited.

[Rukentuts]

We have a soft registry and licensing system here in Illinois. I'm pretty sure we're the only state with one. That sounds a lot less annoying than what we have now. My only concern is the amount of room for abuse, but I'm sure that can be limited.

There are ways to abstract the serial number from the name through use of identifiers. That way you can keep them in separate databases and the personal information with far more security. So even if you got a list of serial numbers with personal ids...congrats? Those ids are worthless without the other info.

[Cthulhu 2020]

See, I made that argument because I saw the explanations and papers others provided, before your comment which I replied to. I figured that, since others provided that information, it'd be redundant for me to link it as well.

Yeah, and I addressed that. There are other factors affecting the homicide rates, but the paper doesn't address why all other homicide rates only declined slightly or stayed the same, while gun homicide rates dropped precipitously. His analysis of the data also makes a lot of assumptions and attributes absolutely zero effect from the Brady Hand gun law and makes the assumption that every felon pursued acquiring a gun after they were denied one via background check. I find that highly unlikely.

But who knows, maybe I'm wrong and 270 felons per day said "fuck it, I got denied, time to go to my black market connection" because they all have one.

[GreatOak]

There are ways to abstract the serial number from the name through use of identifiers. That way you can keep them in separate databases and the personal information with far more security. So even if you got a list of serial numbers with personal ids...congrats? Those ids are worthless without the other info.

Yeah thats sort of what I had in mind

[Rukentuts]

Yeah thats sort of what I had in mind

It's basic DB design. You never ever keep personal info in an unencrypted table. It's why I don't get people that cry "privacy concerns". The government already has your personal info for SS / etc. Abstracting it another time really isn't anything new.

Of course Anonymous keeps proving how dumb some developers are -.-

[Cthulhu 2020]

It's basic DB design. You never ever keep personal info in an unencrypted table. It's why I don't get people that cry "privacy concerns". The government already has your personal info for SS / etc. Abstracting it another time really isn't anything new.

Of course Anonymous keeps proving how dumb some developers are -.-

That some people still believe Anonymous is serious business after they demonstrated that the greatest extent of their threats is DDOSing the government, is beyond me.

Most of the guys that had any skill were either thrown in jail or work for the government now, and all that's left is a bunch of script kiddies with the exclusive elite club mindset.

[Kellhound]

Yeah, and I addressed that. There are other factors affecting the homicide rates, but the paper doesn't address why all other homicide rates only declined slightly or stayed the same, while gun homicide rates dropped precipitously. His analysis of the data also makes a lot of assumptions and attributes absolutely zero effect from the Brady Hand gun law and makes the assumption that every felon pursued acquiring a gun after they were denied one via background check. I find that highly unlikely.

But who knows, maybe I'm wrong and 270 felons per day said "fuck it, I got denied, time to go to my black market connection" because they all have one.

As has been pointed out before, less than 1/2 of the rejections are for alleged felonies.

[ringpriest]

Try again. Gun homicides way down, other homicides either fairly flat or also declining i.e. not compensating for reduction in gun homicides.



Though one could argue this is the lead effect in action, rather than gun control measures working.

Huh. You're right. I know I've read at least one study that claimed otherwise, but a little digging show's you're absolutely correct - the US homicide rate has been dropping since the law went into effect. And yeah, there are other potential explanations, but my claim above - that the overall homicide rate did not change, is pretty obviously wrong. Thank you (and others on the thread) for the info.

[Tasttey]

Owning/transporting the AK-47 without a permit from MD is a crime, even when it's in the trunk. According to the MSP, they found the unloaded AK in the trunk, and Smartt was charged with possession of an assault weapon.

Providing that he has a barely competent attorney that charge should be dismissed at his arraignment. The Firearm Owners' Protection Act (FOPA) supersedes any state or local restriction, however it is occasionally viewed by said jurisdictions as an "affirmative defense," which cannot be cited until after one is arrested. Considering the location of the stop and direction of travel, it would be easy to claim that he was merely "passing through" and that he is protected by the "safe passage" clause of FOPA.

Either way while I'll agree that MD's firearm regulations are unnecessarily restrictive I'm also under the firm belief that the guy is also an idiot.

[Tinykong]

Huh. You're right. I know I've read at least one study that claimed otherwise, but a little digging show's you're absolutely correct - the US homicide rate has been dropping since the law went into effect. And yeah, there are other potential explanations, but my claim above - that the overall homicide rate did not change, is pretty obviously wrong. Thank you (and others on the thread) for the info.

Crime rates have been dropping across the board. The hysteria over the "culture of violence" is media hype and is not indicative of reality.

[Masark]

Crime rates have been dropping across the board. The hysteria over the "culture of violence" is media hype and is not indicative of reality.

While crime rates are dropping, I think things remain entirely too interesting, compared to the rest of the developed world.

[Tinykong]

While crime rates are dropping, I think things remain entirely too interesting, compared to the rest of the developed world.

It's been shown in this thread at least 3 times that I can remember, that US per capita rates are not as bad as people think. These figures are manipulated heavily, when you remove suicides, justified shootings, police shootings, etc. the numbers start to drop dramatically.

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Providing that he has a barely competent attorney that charge should be dismissed at his arraignment. The Firearm Owners' Protection Act (FOPA) supersedes any state or local restriction, however it is occasionally viewed by said jurisdictions as an "affirmative defense," which cannot be cited until after one is arrested. Considering the location of the stop and direction of travel, it would be easy to claim that he was merely "passing through" and that he is protected by the "safe passage" clause of FOPA.

Either way while I'll agree that MD's firearm regulations are unnecessarily restrictive I'm also under the firm belief that the guy is also an idiot.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I was reading on another website that the law is exempt from FOPA safe passage because of the location of the stop, but I tried to find the site again and couldn't, so maybe that's false.

There was a road rage shooting near that stretch of road recently, might be why the police have been so heavy handed with enforcement.

[PhaelixWW]

The data shows a precipitous decline in gun related homicides when the law went into effect.

Decklan, we've been over this. The spike and subsequent drop in gun homicides was by offenders in the 14-24 age range, most of whom would have been unable to buy a firearm for themselves even without a background check, simply because of their age.

On top of that, we're talking a time-to-crime average of over 10 years, which I haven't seen you attempt to address at all. There's simply no way that a purchase law is going to have an immediate effect like you're imagining here. The reason the background check law coincided with the spike in gun crime is because it was a reaction to the spike in gun crime.

You could just as easily argue that the reduction in crime was due to the fact that 23 states adopted three-strike laws between 1993 and 1995.

Or maybe because of a crackdown on gangs, leading to a 73% reduction in gang violence between 1994 and 2003.

And of course, the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 (of which the much-touted AWB was merely one section) did various things such as increasing the scope of the death penalty, adding funding for new prisons as well as 100,000 new police officers, as well as provisions mandating drug testing and making membership in a gang a crime all by itself.

And the DEA beefed up as well. The number of DEA Special Agents went up 34% between 1990 and 1998, and their budget went up 75% in that time, also.

So no, especially when you consider, once again, that the average time-to-crime of weapons is over 10 years, the fact that the Brady bill was passed in 1994 is not responsible for the decline in crime in 1994.

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Neither would tracking all those purchases by serial number, and it would do leaps and bounds towards tracking loss and crime.

Once again, Rukentuts, you ignore the fact that guns have been serial-numbered by law since 1968. A registry does very little to nothing to increase the accuracy of a gun trace over the existing, decentralized method.

No leaps and bounds.

[Rukentuts]

Once again, Rukentuts, you ignore the fact that guns have been serial-numbered by law since 1968. A registry does very little to nothing to increase the accuracy of a gun trace over the existing, decentralized method.

No leaps and bounds.

All purchases in the USA are not tracked by serial number. I don't know what world you live in.

[PhaelixWW]

All purchases in the USA are not tracked by serial number. I don't know what world you live in.

I took your comment to be promoting a full registry, which you've done in the past. Am I mistaken?

The ATF already has the capability to back-trace serial numbers. A UBC would potentially increase the scope of this by providing a decentralized record of the transfer from one private party to another (at least for all transfers done legally).

Centralizing the records into a registry, however, does not confer some kind of automatic enhancement to the accuracy of the result of a trace.

[Rukentuts]

Centralizing the records into a registry, however, does not confer some kind of automatic enhancement to the accuracy of the result of a trace.

Except, I know why more about this than you. Retail serial numbers are only just a huge part of my career.

Tracking serial numbers, or UINs in retail, greatly improves accuracy and helps prevent and track losses.