Mafia Intermission game 43 and 3/4 - A Love Affair

[Lellybaby]

Morning everyone.

I suppose this comes down to how much you believe your love. If you think they are town then push to save them. If you think they are mafia then vote them for the good of the town.

I believe I am part of one of the 2VT couples. Can everyone else say the same?!?!?

[Lora]

1. You can't prove you are part of the two two town couples.
2. Claiming such puts a big mark on you and indirectly your partner.

[Waker]

which actually in a way simplifies it to a 50% chance of my ally being scum.

1/7 chance for scum 1 to be your partner
If scum 1 is not your lover, there's 1/5 chance of scum 2 to be your lover.

Therefore the chance of your lover being mafia is 12/35 or ~34% which is way lower than the percentage for hitting scum out of the other people (75%). Therefore, it is better for everyone to protect their partner and try to kill anyone who is not their partner. I think it comes down to how you calculate it, though. If you think about that like that you're town, and every other role is rolled by random, you get my result. However, funnily enough, if you think that there are 3 other townies than you, and 2 of them are given scum and 2 of them are given town as a lover, you would get 7/12 as the chance. I personally think the 1st way of thinking is more accurate, but I don't know. These are the answers I was able to get. I can't get 50% as an answer, however.

I'd say my opinion about what's the way to win this as town but I guess it's not good to say it out loud. Anyway, the setup is fun yet a bit messed up, since for everyone it's better to hit anyone else than their partner even though the scums are always someone's partners.

This is kinda random, but don't you find it weird that Robo decided to go for alphabetical order instead of the order in the topic? Maybe the real number 8, Lelly, is his lover? I am just thinking that Robo didn't want to reroll because he would be lying and just changed the method of picking up the target. I could be quite sure that he wouldn't remember the alphabetical order of all the players in the game without looking at the list mentioned anyway, so what's the point of alphabetical order? This is by no way an accusation, though.

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Morning everyone.

I suppose this comes down to how much you believe your love. If you think they are town then push to save them. If you think they are mafia then vote them for the good of the town.

I believe I am part of one of the 2VT couples. Can everyone else say the same?!?!?

You have no way of knowing, really. I don't think why you would say that, except if you know that your partner is town which would make you mafia.

[Hokiefan]

Ok - here is my train of thought:

The two scum probably have told each other who they are partnered with, so they know 2 of the 4 pairs. We should go ahead and mass-claim lovers, eliminating that advantage from the scum.

I soft-claimed earlier, but I'll explicitly say it: I am Lora's lover.

Who is everyone else paired with?

[Lellybaby]

Ok my money is on Waker & Lora now for the mafia.

I used the word believe and you both jump down my throat.

And yes my lover is Robo as I'm sure you have guessed.

Here's the deal.

With 2 mafia present and 8 alive we need 5 lynch which means whomever we pick will require every other town to vote if it is a person partnered with a mafia.

4 (2x 2VT blocks) + VT from the other mafia lover partnership.

Both mafia aren't going to jump onto a bandwagon that sees one of them get killed and the VT isn't going to vote for themselves unless they believe their partner is mafia.

That is why I was asking for your initial reaction of your partner.

[Lora]

Except I'm not scum. You specifically tried to out the two town couples. That is scum behavior.

unvote vote: Lellybaby

[Lellybaby]

Except I'm not scum. You specifically tried to out the two town couples. That is scum behavior.

unvote vote: Lellybaby

If I was mafia then I would already know who the 2x2VT teams are, your logic doesn't make sense, and if you don't think this is a game where we wont be discussing partners you're out of your mind.

I don't need your claim. I just need to know if Hokie is buying it or if he's prepared to die to kill you mafia scum.

[Robozerim]

1/7 chance for scum 1 to be your partner
If scum 1 is not your lover, there's 1/5 chance of scum 2 to be your lover.

Therefore the chance of your lover being mafia is 12/35 or ~34% which is way lower than the percentage for hitting scum out of the other people (75%). Therefore, it is better for everyone to protect their partner and try to kill anyone who is not their partner. I think it comes down to how you calculate it, though. If you think about that like that you're town, and every other role is rolled by random, you get my result. However, funnily enough, if you think that there are 3 other townies than you, and 2 of them are given scum and 2 of them are given town as a lover, you would get 7/12 as the chance. I personally think the 1st way of thinking is more accurate, but I don't know. These are the answers I was able to get. I can't get 50% as an answer, however.

I'd say my opinion about what's the way to win this as town but I guess it's not good to say it out loud. Anyway, the setup is fun yet a bit messed up, since for everyone it's better to hit anyone else than their partner even though the scums are always someone's partners.

This is kinda random, but don't you find it weird that Robo decided to go for alphabetical order instead of the order in the topic? Maybe the real number 8, Lelly, is his lover? I am just thinking that Robo didn't want to reroll because he would be lying and just changed the method of picking up the target. I could be quite sure that he wouldn't remember the alphabetical order of all the players in the game without looking at the list mentioned anyway, so what's the point of alphabetical order? This is by no way an accusation, though.

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Odd that I went for alphabetical instead of the order given? How? I doubt I'm the only one to take notes, which include the names of all those playing, and I equally doubt I'm the only one who prefers to put the names in alphabetical order. You're right that Lelly is my lover (no point hiding or denying it, since she's said so already), but that she was the original #8 is purely a coincidence, I didn't even know that because I didn't pay close attention to where people were in the original list, just to where they would go in mine.

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If I was mafia then I would already know who the 2x2VT teams are, your logic doesn't make sense, and if you don't think this is a game where we wont be discussing partners you're out of your mind.

I don't need your claim. I just need to know if Hokie is buying it or if he's prepared to die to kill you mafia scum.

Not quite true. You'd know who was part of the two teams, but you wouldn't know in which way they were teamed up. However, if you are correct and we are a 2 town team, then coming out will have revealed exactly who is teamed with who to the scum.

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To further go on the alphabetical thing, I have no issues with lying in these games. I try not to do so if I'm town, but if I'm scum I will lie as much as I feel like doing.

[Waker]

Odd that I went for alphabetical instead of the order given? How? I doubt I'm the only one to take notes, which include the names of all those playing, and I equally doubt I'm the only one who prefers to put the names in alphabetical order. You're right that Lelly is my lover (no point hiding or denying it, since she's said so already), but that she was the original #8 is purely a coincidence, I didn't even know that because I didn't pay close attention to where people were in the original list, just to where they would go in mine.

Well like I said, it was just something I was thinking about :I That post cleared it a bit though. Also quite a funny coincidence then, especially because it would fit into my theory. Well, things happen, huh?


Also Lelly, calm down honey, I am just saying that there's no way of knowing that your partner is town just yet which makes your post sound weird. The fact that you mention believing it makes it sound like you're just trying to make your lover feel better because he's actually town, and being mafia yourself. That's the first thing I thought of when I saw your post. It doesn't mean straight away that I believe you're mafia, though.

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Also Robo, I mean the "making an excuse for alphabetical order" something like those people that don't feel like lying about that, I remember someone just rerolling until he got his desired roll instead of just lying that he rolled it. So I was wondering if it was the same kind of thing. Tbh this discussion made no sense to begin with (my bad) because it's just my curiosity.

[Lora]

peter pan is dead. i'm sad.

[Lellybaby]

Not quite true. You'd know who was part of the two teams, but you wouldn't know in which way they were teamed up. However, if you are correct and we are a 2 town team, then coming out will have revealed exactly who is teamed with who to the scum.

Is that information even vaguely useful to mafia. All they care about is not getting 4 people lynched, why would they care how the others are divided up? Am I missing something?

[Robozerim]

Just the general idea put forth by Celtic209: if two stronger townie players are grouped together they'll work to kill that group. To be honest, I wouldn't be too concerned about it unless they get a night kill. Pushing for death during the day leaves a metaphorical paper trail to follow.

[Arlee]

Someone double check if I did my time conversion right, I think the deadline for D1 is in just under 11 and a half hours?

[Robozerim]

Yeah, that looks about right.

[Lora]

We are definitely reaching a majority lynch at this rate

[Anakso]

Okay so FoS Robo pretty easily.
Jumps on, immediately votes, no discussion, pure rng vote. This is super risky for town but if it works then pretty beneficial for mafia, I just don't see town doing this and don't see how Robo can be town right now.

I'll vote him before I go to work

[Robozerim]

Oh noes! I've been FoS'd again because I went random for my vote! How terrible! I must be scum, no doubts about it, I am the only person who hasn't contributed any thought to this game, afterall. Oh wait....I have put some thought into the game, and many haven't really contributed anything....huh. I'm being targeted because I stood out, not because of any legitimate reasons. I can't say that it's a terrible reason, seeing as no reason is hardly any different from the usual for day 1.

How about this.....

Lora (partnered with Hokiefan) votes against Lellybaby, indicates he doesn't care about me or my team. Waker votes me, indicating he doesn't care about me or my team. Anakso says he's going to vote me, indicating he doesn't care about me or my team. If he and Waker aren't allied lovers, that means 3 teams want me dead, and seeing how two teams know eachother and want to avoid kiling eachother.....

So, Anakso, are you Waker's lover?

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Actually, come to think of it...it may not be so valid. The town partner would be left in the dark and could easily be doing their own thing, including voting against people their partner would rather not have them vote for. Well, I tried to come up with something, it made sense for a few minutes at least.

[Hokiefan]

If I was mafia then I would already know who the 2x2VT teams are, your logic doesn't make sense, and if you don't think this is a game where we wont be discussing partners you're out of your mind.

I don't need your claim. I just need to know if Hokie is buying it or if he's prepared to die to kill you mafia scum.

I don't think I'll vote for Lora. I'd rather vote for one of the other 3 pairs.

Unless Lora slips, I would rather vote for a pair where BOTH parties have scum potential. It's all guesswork at this point, so I'd rather have a good "second chance" if our first lynch misses. But if we lynch Lora, I know that our "second chance" (ME!!) will hit town.

Of course, my theory would work a lot better if Waker / Celtic / Anakso / Arlee paired up properly for us to analyze.

[Anakso]

huh. I'm being targeted because I stood out

I legit lold.
If that's what you need to keep telling your self then sure, but actually you're being voted by me anyway because you did what I fully expected scum to do at some point, which is come on and rng vote because to you as long as that "rng" is on a townie not paired with you or your partner, you don't care.
And of course, rng voting can't possibly mean you're scum. You didn't choose Waker after all right, rng did.

[Arlee]

I don't think I'll vote for Lora. I'd rather vote for one of the other 3 pairs.

Unless Lora slips, I would rather vote for a pair where BOTH parties have scum potential. It's all guesswork at this point, so I'd rather have a good "second chance" if our first lynch misses. But if we lynch Lora, I know that our "second chance" (ME!!) will hit town.

Of course, my theory would work a lot better if Waker / Celtic / Anakso / Arlee paired up properly for us to analyze.

I was about to pick on you for not wanting to lynch Lora because everyone always lynches Lora... and then I remembered you're paired

It's interesting that people are fighting against being lynched in this game. We all only know our own alinement. Well I suppose the two mafia people know the alinement of four people... but everyone town only knows their own alinement. So while it's normal to not want to die, as a town member who can't verify their partner's alinement I recognize me dying might be needed for the town to win. It feels like a number of people posting haven't realized this.