Democratic Path to the Nomination

[Vynestra]

So I decided to make a thread to breakdown where each candidate stands. Luckily 538 has made a super simple graph to illustrate this, and has created 2 separate paths to the nomination for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.


Hillary Clinton at the top, Bernie below her: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ets/democrats/


For those who aren't clicking the link -- 538 has made projections of where candidates should do well/bad and has said basically "these demopgrahics for this state favor this candidate, they should win this many delegates from this state because of it". It was last updated 9 hours from now, and it doesn't include ANY delegates from Missouri yet.

So there's been a lot of talk about "Sanders has a lot of favorable states to come", that is true. And 538 has worked that into their paths to the nomination.

According to 538 w/o Missouri Clinton is at 108% of her delegate target and Bernie Sanders is at 83% of his target.

The path that has been shaped out for Clinton involves doing below 50%, in some cases 40% in some of the upcoming states to hit her targets for those days. Meaning for her to not hit her targets, she will need less than 40% of the vote in most of the upcoming states.

Likewise for Bernie, since he is below his target, he needs to hit above 55-60% in most of the upcoming states that favor him to get back on track for the nomination.

Going forward, Clinton can win below 50% in a lot of the upcoming contests and still secure the nomination, ESPECIALLY since she is so much above her goal (especially once they add missouri). She has hit her goal in almost all the states and went way past it in many.

Basically, the wins that Sanders will have, according to 538 are already baked into their model -- Meaning she can lost a lot of upcoming contests and still walk away the Nominee.


Right now, Clinton is on a path to the nomination, with needing less than 50% of delegates from a lot of the upcoming contests, and about 50% or a little more from some to hit the magic number.

Bernie Sanders however needs to exceed all of his targets by a good margin to win. So he's already favored to win a majority of upcoming states, most of the smaller ones, he now needs to exceed those targets that already have him winning 55-60% of the state and win MORE delegates, or else he just can't get the nom.


TLDR: Clinton is on a good path to the nomination with not needing to actually win a majority of remaining states (she needs to pull out wins in most of the big ones remaining, where she is favored however, they can even be close wins). And Sanders needs big wins in every single upcoming contest, no more tie business. A tie is a win for Hillary. Everytime he ties means he has less room to make up his deficit.



-----------------------------------------------------------Upcoming Contests---------------------------------------------------------------------------


There are 8 upcoming contests that total 373 delegates. Clintons total goal for all of these? Only 161. Meaning she can win less than half (and she'll probably win in Arizona) to be remain ahead of her path to the nomination.

For Sanders, it's not simple math. Because he can't just HIT his goals, he needs to start exceeding them or he can't win. So yes he's probably going to win 7 out of 8 states, but the problem is even if he wins 50-55% of all of them and loses arizona by like 55-45, he ends up still being behind his overall goal, which is a problem.

Then on April 19th will be NY, Sanders needs a landslide victory to start cutting into her lead, or else he's really going to have a problem. The next 9 contests including NY will almost determine the race, if he isn't exceeding his targets in every single state including NY, the math will only become harder and harder.

[Rukh]

You said the same thing about three times there. :P Decent post anyways. Without some major change, Sanders just doesn't have a path. He hasn't for a while, but the 15th debates proved that for a lot of people.

[Vynestra]

You said the same thing about three times there. :P Decent post anyways. Without some major change, Sanders just doesn't have a path. He hasn't for a while, but the 15th debates proved that for a lot of people.

I have to say it three times, or else people don't get it. Atleast the Bernie supporters. I feel like a broken record with them. I have to repeat myself a million times or they don't understand.

[Damajin]

You said the same thing about three times there. :P Decent post anyways. Without some major change, Sanders just doesn't have a path. He hasn't for a while, but the 15th debates proved that for a lot of people.

He really shot himself in the foot with that ultra early brushoff of the email thing. I remember talking to tons of people and reading many articles and discussions here and elsewhere with people going WHY?

[Vynestra]

He really shot himself in the foot with that ultra early brushoff of the email thing. I remember talking to tons of people and reading many articles and discussions here and elsewhere with people going WHY?

He thought his people wouldn't like it. I also believe most democrats don't want to hear about it, and that's who he's running for so..

It was a good move overall I think.

[Rukh]

He really shot himself in the foot with that ultra early brushoff of the email thing. I remember talking to tons of people and reading many articles and discussions here and elsewhere with people going WHY?

It wouldn't have done him any good. There's a small group that might have gone all conspiracy victim about it, but for the large part the GOP already wore out that card long before it was valuable to anybody.

Also, if it DID gain traction from him pushing it, it might have had long-term harmful consequences. Sanders is a smart dude. He knows his path was a slim chance and he'd much rather have a Democratic president than a Republican president as a senator. So it's either going to do damage he doesn't want done or it's going to do nothing. He made the smart choice.

Unlike the bernouts, Mr. Sanders is an adult that understand sometimes you have to go with the least-bad choice.

[Pterodactylus]

He really shot himself in the foot with that ultra early brushoff of the email thing. I remember talking to tons of people and reading many articles and discussions here and elsewhere with people going WHY?

Because he knows there is no story there.

[Stormdash]

Clinton has been the nominee since before anybody voted, was never not going to be the nominee.

[Damajin]

He thought his people wouldn't like it. I also believe most democrats don't want to hear about it, and that's who he's running for so..

It was a good move overall I think.

He still needed more than just Democrats to push him, his campaign has been as successful as it has due to Independents and to my mind, and people I talked to about it he could have given some lip service to the pursuit of the facts to their very end without alienating his Democrat support. He's already well known for not being in lockstep with the party so it's not like he's taking a credibility hit or anything there.

It wouldn't have done him any good. There's a small group that might have gone all conspiracy victim about it, but for the large part the GOP already wore out that card long before it was valuable to anybody.

Sure but things are still playing themselves out as the immunity granting to that one guy shows, so he didn't have to take the route of the GOP to get the message across that he wanted to make sure everything was on the up and up while not resorting to hysterics, but he waved it off as completely irrelevant and to many people it's not a settled and resolved thing and someone wanting to be President should be keen on seeing it through to a beyond reasonable doubt result.

[I Push Buttons]

Clinton has been the nominee since before anybody voted, was never not going to be the nominee.

The DNC is obviously backing Hillary and going out of their way to make sure she wins, but they wouldn't nominate her if Sanders won a majority of the non-super delegates... The DNC has no interest in snubbing their voters like the GOP, they already have low turnout and a sure fire way to lower turnout even more is to tell voters affiliated with their party that their votes don't even matter...

[Rukh]

The DNC is obviously backing Hillary and going out of their way to make sure she wins, but they wouldn't nominate her if Sanders won a majority of the non-super delegates... The DNC has no interest in snubbing their voters like the GOP, they already have low turnout and a sure fire way to lower turnout even more is to tell voters affiliated with their party that their votes don't even matter...

Its interesting seeing the little signs, but no view behind the curtains.

Hillary is of course going to be part of the old guard. Obama was a revolution (backed by Howard Dean) against the old guard. Previous to Obama, the Democratic Leadership Council was basically the kingmakers for the Democrats. Both Clintons and a lot of prominent democrats were members. The 2008 election was their overturn by Mr. Dean backing Mr. Obama beating Ms. Clinton. Is 2016 their return? Or is it a reconciliation between the old guard and the newer more liberal leaders? Its hard to tell with the information given. Safe to say, a lot of Ms. Clinton's inside ring are very much the old guard, but the DNC in general right now is not.

People make big claims that the DNC is backing clinton all the time, but I don't think it's as plain as people say it is. I think they see her the ticket to stay in control of the executive branch, but I think there has to be some behind the scene squabbles there.

[-aiko-]

Bernie Sanders does not have a chance. Cruz would have stood a chance had Rubio dropped out earlier but he didn't. We are looking at Trump v Hillary and I don't see any way around that at this point.

[I Push Buttons]

Bernie Sanders does not have a chance. Cruz would have stood a chance had Rubio dropped out earlier but he didn't. We are looking at Trump v Hillary and I don't see any way around that at this point.

If Trump keeps winning these ~40% plurality victories and doesn't get the required 1237 delegates, the GOP may in fact actually go ahead with a brokered convention... And what happens there is anyone's guess.

[Stormdash]

The DNC is obviously backing Hillary and going out of their way to make sure she wins, but they wouldn't nominate her if Sanders won a majority of the non-super delegates... The DNC has no interest in snubbing their voters like the GOP, they already have low turnout and a sure fire way to lower turnout even more is to tell voters affiliated with their party that their votes don't even matter...

Having that broad number of super delegates is precisely to empower the party to do exactly that, it's the only reason to bother with it. It's naive to assume otherwise. It will be academic, but there was never any doubt Clinton would be the nominee.

- - - Updated - - -

If Trump keeps winning these ~40% plurality victories and doesn't get the required 1237 delegates, the GOP may in fact actually go ahead with a brokered convention... And what happens there is anyone's guess.

I could probably see that going maybe 4 or 5 different ways. The most obvious Trump-block would be a Cruz/Kasich ticket. Or Cruz/Haley or similar, Cruz + someone the party bosses like. The real danger to the GOP is if they try to bring in a ringer on the convention floor, they almost certainly guarantee a Trump 3rd party run, which, could even bring Cruz with it as VP and probably finish ahead of the GOP replacement.

[Damajin]

If Trump keeps winning these ~40% plurality victories and doesn't get the required 1237 delegates, the GOP may in fact actually go ahead with a brokered convention... And what happens there is anyone's guess.

According to Drudge today former Speaker of the House Boehner endorsed current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan for President, who wouldn't rule out the possibility of running. They've definitely got a multilayered brokered convention plan in the works, regardless of how well Trump does.

[I Push Buttons]

Having that broad number of super delegates is precisely to empower the party to do exactly that, it's the only reason to bother with it. It's naive to assume otherwise. It will be academic, but there was never any doubt Clinton would be the nominee.

That is the reason for the super delegates, but I highly doubt they would be put into practice in such a way.

If it was very close, sure, but its not even close right now even if you completely ignore super delegates... Its like 60% to 40% in favor of Clinton.

- - - Updated - - -

I could probably see that going maybe 4 or 5 different ways. The most obvious Trump-block would be a Cruz/Kasich ticket. Or Cruz/Haley or similar, Cruz + someone the party bosses like. The real danger to the GOP is if they try to bring in a ringer on the convention floor, they almost certainly guarantee a Trump 3rd party run, which, could even bring Cruz with it as VP and probably finish ahead of the GOP replacement.

The establishment hates Cruz though...

[muto]

Bernie Sanders does not have a chance. Cruz would have stood a chance had Rubio dropped out earlier but he didn't. We are looking at Trump v Hillary and I don't see any way around that at this point.

It's gonna be the lowest voter turnout ever. Neither one is someone I will go out of my way to vote for.

[Stormdash]

According to Drudge today former Speaker of the House Boehner endorsed current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan for President, who wouldn't rule out the possibility of running. They've definitely got a multilayered brokered convention plan in the works, regardless of how well Trump does.

Ryan backed up from that a bit later in the day... I think some of this is posturing by the Establishment to see if they can get Trump, or more likely Cruz, to play ball with them on platform, tone, and running mate in exchange for an easy nomination.

[Rukh]

Having that broad number of super delegates is precisely to empower the party to do exactly that, it's the only reason to bother with it. It's naive to assume otherwise. It will be academic, but there was never any doubt Clinton would be the nominee.

No need to be so binary. Superdelegates are to prevent a Trump situation. The DNC isn't in a Trump situation. So they don't need to "empower the party to do exactly that". If Sanders was far ahead in pledged delegates you can bet the DNC would shift to support him instead. The fact is Sanders never had a clear path to the nomination so he didn't get the support.

[Stormdash]

The establishment hates Cruz though...

They are out of options... they have to "hold their nose" with Cruz, it's the only option they have that might have Trump bow out gracefully and not forfeit all that high GOP turnout/enthusiasm. If they bring in a ringer who got like 10 or 15% of the primary voters, like Kasich, or none at all, like Ryan, it all but concedes the election to Clinton.