Mafia 68: The West Wing

[Danner]

I'm not actually sure what catta claimed. My interpretation was flavour cop.

[Arlee]

Well I was going to go ahead and vote Uggor because this feels very Crackle 2.0ish... though in general I like to think Uggor plays better than that :/ But Reti last question there is a valid one and deserves an answer.

Also, thanks for the posts today Danner, those were interesting and good imo.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not actually sure what catta claimed. My interpretation was flavour cop.

Unless I am forgetful Catta never claimed something specific. Just that he targeted Xan with an ability and was sure it worked on Xan. The only thing I could figure there is something similar to the visitor role Large was... my main thing with Catta though is if he's scum that play would have been a really weird and clumsy one to make.

[Reticence]

I'm not actually sure what catta claimed. My interpretation was flavour cop.

Unless I missed something, I believe he said that his action indicated that it successfully hit Xanjori, and that was it.

EDIT: Ninja'd!

- - - Updated - - -

my main thing with Catta though is if he's scum that play would have been a really weird and clumsy one to make.

Not if they suspected multiple scum teams at the time, and he thought he had caught one. The boost to towncred and the lynching of the enemy could have been the goal. Of course, that does draw night kills.

[Arlee]

Not if they suspected multiple scum teams at the time, and he thought he had caught one. The boost to towncred and the lynching of the enemy could have been the goal. Of course, that does draw night kills.

True... though if we are looking at multiple scum teams the potential numbers right now are not at all favorable

[Dendrek]

Uggor's not answering the obvious question because the answer is obvious (he knows it's obvious and he knows we all know it's obvious, but if he says it then nothing else he says matters). His goal isn't to stop his lynch. (If it is, then he really really miscalculated the effect of this play.) It's not likely he's trying to get Dupti lynched either. (I have too much faith in Uggor's intelligence to assume he'd think that could work.)

Ultimately, unless Uggor provides us with something more than I just know, there's nothing we can do with his claim.

[Uggorthaholy]

It is not from a read. I have knowledge indicating that Dupti is not the doctor, or at the least, not the only doctor.

Also, I took so long to answer, because fucking hell I said I have family moving in and am quite busy.

[Kryllian]

If Uggor is lynched (which is the way today has been heading even with the unvotes) and flips scum....dead scum. Go team! It gives us more info about the scum setup and also gives us info about who he's been defending and accusing.

If he flips town - that shifts the focus to Dupti as a pretty clear lynch target and likely more people if we dig into the past day or two posts.

Yes it's a gamble at this point since so many town have gone down so far. However I have a problem with him making a claim that people weren't buying and then a second attempted push to deflect against himself. Ultimately his vagueness and grandstanding aren't changing my vote at this point.

[Uggorthaholy]

I'm not going to out the doctor I know about, so I won't say who it is. I know scum are pushing for info to hope I'll get frustrated and say it, but I won't. I'd rather be lynched than out this person.

[Kryllian]

Ye old vote update

Uggor - Celtic (1188), Kryllian (1217), Monkz (1226), Catta (1229), Xanjori (1230), Robo (1252)
Dupti - Kurenai (1149), Graeham (1157), Uggor (1245)
Graeham - Dupti (1160)


Voted but then unvoted
Danner
Dendrek

No votes yet
Arlee
Reti

[Monkz]

Can people just end Uggors life already? It's the most obvious lynch ever. I think the last 4 hours have proved that nothing else will happen this gameday.

[Dendrek]

I am starting to have doubts about Dupti's claim. I'll go more into detail why that is tomorrow, but I don't wish to distract from Uggor's lynch today.

[Xanjori]

I am starting to have doubts about Dupti's claim. I'll go more into detail why that is tomorrow, but I don't wish to distract from Uggor's lynch today.

You could die tonight, dumping the info is better than taking it to the grave.

[Uggorthaholy]

Can people just end Uggors life already? It's the most obvious lynch ever. I think the last 4 hours have proved that nothing else will happen this gameday.

And to think the lengths I'm going to protect the Doctor's identity.

[Graeham]

Can people just end Uggors life already? It's the most obvious lynch ever. I think the last 4 hours have proved that nothing else will happen this gameday.

Uggor's lynch seems pretty certain at this point. I don't agree with the idea of ending the day early though. Why would you willingly want to erode away the amount of time people have to post and discuss theories when it's likely that some people will not be able to post again at all for the rest of game assuming people die tonight?

[Reticence]

I am starting to have doubts about Dupti's claim. I'll go more into detail why that is tomorrow, but I don't wish to distract from Uggor's lynch today.

I would rather you voice them now. I do have one misgiving about Dupti that's been gnawing at me all day, and I'm not a fan of how this Uggor train came together, no matter how strange his claim might seem.

[Deleted]

Vote Count:


Uggor:.....6- Celtic(1188)/ Kryll(1217)/ Monkz(1226)/ Catta(1229)/ Xanjori(1230)/ Robo(1252)/
Dupti:......3- Kurenai(1149)/ Graeham(1157)/ Uggor(1245)
Graeham:.1- Dupti(1160)/


Getting some sleep, if you hammer while I'm a sleep, please stop posting in the thread ty.








With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch

[Reticence]

So, among other things, I'm really not a big fan of this recurring trend of the same four/five people showing up, posting three times and then disappearing while the clock runs out. I'm also not a fan of these "obvious" lynches that this game has been full of, and how much people are willing to just let them go through. I mean, for fuck's sake, there hasn't been a single post in almost three hours. I can account for three hours of my time, but 13 other people? Even if we're settled on Uggor, there are other things to discuss; what are we going to do tomorrow? Who do we think is skating by?

Anyway, as a defense mechanism I've reverted back into old-school Reti and gone back through vote records to establish some patterns.

Vote Records

Spoiler: 

Day One
Crackle: 13- Uggor(118)/ Xanjori(126)/ Satsubl(176)/ Arlee(288)/ Virothe(296)/ Kryll(311)/ Dendrek(345)/ Monkz(361)/ Crackle(373)/ Listo(378)/ Dupti(383)/ Pala(386)/ Celtic(390)
Danner: 4- Graeham(24)/ Val(71)/ JynxieJ(73)/ Robo(304)/
Celtic..: 4- Danner(15)/ Kurenai(61)/ Catta(108)/ Senna(281)
Dupti..: 3- Large(31)/ / Reti(76)/ Strikered(96)/
Dendrek: 1- Kel(130)

Day Two
Jynx: 8- Graeham(420)/ Celtic(583/ Robo(592)/ Listo(597)/ Satsubl(602)/ Uggor(604)/ Jynx(605)/ Virothe(608)/
Satsubl: 7- Dendrek(435)/ Arlee(461)/ Danner(477)/ Lelly(489)/ Kryll(523)/ Kel(546)/ Xanjori(586)
Listo: 3- Dupti(512)/ Monkz(520)/ Large(528)
Arlee: 2- Xanjori(402)/ Senna(404)/
Dupti : 2- Strikered(408)/ Arialla(526)

Day Three
Satsubl: 10- Uggor(624)/ Val(646)/ Senna(673)/ Kurenai(697)/ Danner(698)/ Arlee(731)/ Graeham(748)/ Virothe(751)/ Robo(766)/ Celtic(781)/
Kel: 9- Monkz(639)/ Arialla(640)/ Xanjori(676)/ Catta(702)/ Large(705)/ Kryll(735)/ Reti(744)/ Dendrek(769)/ Dupti(772)/
Dupti: 1- Strikered(656)/

Day Four
Largehorn (10): Arialla, Arlee, Graeham, Monkz, Catta, Reticence, Dupti, Kryll, Uggor, Val
Arlee (3): Senna, Xanjori, Celtic
Danner (1): Dupti,
Uggor (2): Largehorn, Robo
Dupti (1): Danner

Day Five
Val..: 8- Dendrek(1023)/ Dupti(1024)/ Kryll(1041)/ Xanjori(1066)/ Catta(1079)/ Robo(1083)/ Celtic(1125)/ Arlee(1131)/
Dupti: 5- Graeham(1045)/ Val(1071)/ Senna(1084)/ Kurenai(1089)/ Reticence(1112)/
Robo.: 1- Monkz(1039)/

Today
Uggor:.....6- Celtic(1188)/ Kryll(1217)/ Monkz(1226)/ Catta(1229)/ Xanjori(1230)/ Robo(1252)/
Dupti:......3- Kurenai(1149)/ Graeham(1157)/ Uggor(1245)
Graeham:.1- Dupti(1160)/

Points of Interest

Spoiler: 

D1:
- If Crackle was known by the mafia group, late-bussing trends apply: Kryllian, Dendrek, Monkz, Dupti and Celtic, depending on how far down the line you want to go.
- If not, anyone after he admitted to lying: Dendrek, Monkz, Dupti, Celtic. And those not on the train, since they'd think he was town: Graeham, Robo, Danner, Kurenai, Catta, Reticence

D2:
- Satsu VS Jynx: Number of scum on each train is probably similar, with some avoiding trains entirely.
- Jynx: Graeham, Celtic, Robo, Uggor, with Virothe already a scum on the train.
- Satsu: Dendrek, Arlee, Danner, Kryllian, Xanjori.
- Side trains: Largehorn takes Listo's train (Dupti and Monkz), Dupti's train was all town, which leaves Xanjori on Arlee.

D3:
- Satsu VS Kel: Same as above, only this time with a more distinct split, since Strikered was the only one on a side train.
- Satsu: Uggor, Kurenai, Danner, Arlee, Graeham, Robo, Celtic, with Virothe already confirmed scum.
- Kel: Monkz, Xanjori, Catta, Kryllian, Reticence, Dendrek and Dupti, with Largehorn already confirmed scum.

D4:
- Largehorn was scum, so anyone after Arlee pushed suspicion to him: Graeham, Monkz, Catta, Reticence, Dupti, Kryllian, Uggor (yay everyone)
- I see a duplicate vote by Dupti here. Someone may need to go back and clarify this.

D5:
- Val VS Dupti: Not as even a split, but it was there for a bit.
- Val: Dendrek, Dupti, Kryllian, Xanjori, Catta, Robo, Celtic, Arlee
- Dupti: Graeham, Kurenai, Reticence
- If Dupti is town, I expect a proportional split by scum. If not, I still expect at least one person to stay on him to play the other side

Today:
- If Uggor is town and Dupti is town, I see a proportional split.
- If Uggor is scum and Dupti is scum (seems unlikely), I would have expected more resistance. If they're resigned to this, then most of them probably piled on Uggor and one maybe stayed on Dupti.
- If Uggor is scum and Dupti is town, Xanjori and Robo are in late-bussing land at the moment (though there have been unvotes that may slightly skew this)
- If Uggor is town and Dupti is scum, this is a pretty brazen play by scum... unless they feel comfortable enough in their positions to lead us to LyLo in the next day or so.

Interesting Intersections

Spoiler: 

- Assuming Crackle was not tied to the mafia, those who voted after his lie or weren't on his train, intersected with those who voted late on Largehorn: Monkz, Dupti(*duplicate), Graeham, Catta, Reticence
- Assuming Crackle was known by the mafia, those who voted late on him and those who voted late on Largehorn: Dupti(*duplicate), Monkz, Kryllian
If there's a scum playing Devil's Advocate in favor of Dupti's lynch, regardless of Dupti's alignment, it's Graeham or Kurenai.

- D3 in particular is interesting to me, as there were 20/22 votes out, the only exceptions being Satsu and Kel themselves. The only one not on the two trains was Strikered, confirmed town. As such, I expect a roughly even split between the two trains. At this stage in the game, only one scum was dead, so roughly 8ish were left, 3-5 on each train.

- My top two on Satsu are probably Kurenai and Robo, depending on how much I feel like trusting Graeham's play yesterday (which I don't, not entirely); as for Kel's train, Xanjori and Kryllian, with Catta close behind. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't exactly expect this to change anything, but I'm going to voice it anyway: I'm extremely unsure about this Uggor lynch, all things considered.

1) The only people I remotely trust seem wary about pushing it through without discussion, which means that either I've gone completely insane and am trusting the wrong people or we are outnumbered by scum and those willing to follow them.

2) I don't trust more than a couple of the people on the Uggor train.

3) I don't like how the train manifested, or how quickly it did so.

4) Nobody's counter-claimed Toby, and beyond Crackle claiming Annabeth we currently have no reason to believe that fake-claims are a thing.

5) Even if fake-claims are a thing, or even especially if fake-claims are a thing, a second investigation would make sense as a counterbalance.

6) We have actual evidence of an investigation-immune mafioso that does not appear to be a godfather, and that is also support for multiple investigations.

My one reservation about Uggor is the whole not using his N4 investigation until last night (am I understanding that correctly?). I get missing the day deadline, but you also missed the night deadline before it? Am I missing something, here?

Anyway, I don't like the discussion suppression being practiced today, such as Graeham refusing to share reads (he ultimately gave some on Dupti, but I completely disagree with his reasoning for refusing to do so, prior); and various people in a rush to end the day early (such as Catta).

I don't like how people I actively distrust (such as Kryllian) seem to be practically salivating over the idea of this lynch going through.

I don't know. I just don't like it one bit. And maybe I'm just wrong and I should get used to it, but it is what it is. At this point I would be glad to be wrong, but I'd kick myself for days if I let this go through without raising some sort of alarm about how the way this game is going, and how it feels completely wrong to me.

In some ways, the day has been framed as Uggor vs Dupti, but I'm not sure I like that either; this whole game has been a bunch of townie vs townie trains, the only exception being D1 and follow-the-cop-to-Largehorn, and I'm not a fan of the idea of a repeat.

The one reservation I have with Dupti has been gnawing at me all day: he didn't claim Abigail Bartlet. That seemed like the obvious Doctor choice to me, but Millicent is... friggin' just believable enough that I almost overlooked it.

Ugh, fuck it. This may go through while I'm asleep, so I can't wait any longer.

Vote: Dupti

Kate Harper was town; Danny Concannon was town; Leo McGarry was town; we have innocents on Arlee/CJ and Danner/Charlie. Unless Cruelle is fucking with us by giving some staff fake-claims to scum and giving them all investigation immunity, I have to believe that Toby is also town.

I also have to believe that with all of the claimed TPRs being prominent characters from the show that the Doctor would not be the Surgeon General who shows up in a grand total of three episodes, rather than Dr. First Lady. It just doesn't fit for me.

[Uggorthaholy]

I agree with your assessment of the likelyhood of the dr being millicent is low.

[Reticence]

I agree with your assessment of the likelyhood of the dr being millicent is low.

Can you clarify this for me:

My one reservation about Uggor is the whole not using his N4 investigation until last night (am I understanding that correctly?). I get missing the day deadline, but you also missed the night deadline before it? Am I missing something, here?

Let's assume that your claim is 100% accurate:

You had a lynch vote out on D4, which means that you had an investigation available N4. You missed yesterday's (D5) deadline, so you did not get an investigation from that, but you had the investigation from N4 that you were able to use last night. On the topic of delayed usage, this is where I disagree with Kryllian; some games, players have limited charges of their ability that they can use whenever; it sounds like Uggor just adds charges for his ability under proper conditions.

The part that I find odd is this, and apologies if you answered this already: why didn't you use the N4 investigate on N4?

[Dendrek]

If Uggor is town, he needs to explain how he knows who the real doctor is. He doesn't need to say who they are. He just needs to explain how he knows. He claims to get innocent and guilty checks. How could he know who the doctor is? Likewise, he claims to have checked all dead people besides Graeham. I think it's highly unlikely Graeham is the doctor.