TS Harvey - Texas Gulf Coast better prepare NOW

[johnhoftb]

TL;DR before you read.

As of this writing:

• The National Hurricane Center is expecting a Category 3 storm to hit the Aransas Bay area, with a possibly movement from South Padre Island to possibly Matagorda Bay, which includes the city of Corpus Christi.
• Regardless of whether you get hit by the hurricane, expect a major rain event this weekend from a line from along and south of San Antonio to Austin to Houston as Harvey is expected to stall out soon after making landfall.

Full advisories at 10 and 4 am and pm CDT and intermediates at 2 and 7 and smaller advisories in between if necessary.

August 24th, 2017 10 am CDT advisory and graphics.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 93.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then
stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a
major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 982 mb
(29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 10 ft
Sargent to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[ItachiZaku]

[]_[] can't fuck with the Hurricanes.

[Heladys]

Gas prices gonna rise for a month even if nothing happens.

[AeneasBK]

Best of luck with that one.

[Dug]

Pretty bummed but I think won't be getting the worst of it where I'm at. Gonna stay at my parents place since my dad will still be working so gonna help my mom with any water that might come in. Last hurricane did some damage.

Hope I can watch the fight on Saturday lol

[Allybeboba]

The news has been fear mongering this one up for a couple days.
All of the water in the stores has been gone for days in Houston.

[gyrados]

stay safe folks

[Dug]

The news has been fear mongering this one up for a couple days.
All of the water in the stores has been gone for days in Houston.

Doesn't Houston flood badly?

[Allybeboba]

[]_[] can't fuck with the Hurricanes.

This one is a Himmacane. It's name is Harvey.

- - - Updated - - -

Doesn't Houston flood badly?

In some areas. Last year we had a bad rain and the Addicks reservoir was flooded for six weeks. It has a pretty large road running through the middle of it too. Caused traffic problems for a long long time.

[Nathreim]

Texas has some of the best hurricane plans in the nation thanks to the cat 4 in 1900 and hurricane Allen in 1980.

[Dug]

In some areas. Last year we had a bad rain and the Addicks reservoir was flooded for six weeks. It has a pretty large road running through the middle of it too. Caused traffic problems for a long long time.

A friend of mine goes to the university there and she's always taking videos of random areas getting flooded with the rainshowers so I can understand people being scared. But it's not that bad of a storm and as far as I know it's not even a hurricane yet just a depression so fear mongering is an apt description.

People are losing their minds where I'm at too and sure I'm concerned but I'll survive... like 99% sure

[johnhoftb]

A friend of mine goes to the university there and she's always taking videos of random areas getting flooded with the rainshowers so I can understand people being scared. But it's not that bad of a storm and as far as I know it's not even a hurricane yet just a depression so fear mongering is an apt description.

People are losing their minds where I'm at too and sure I'm concerned but I'll survive... like 99% sure

It's a Tropical Storm now, and nearly a hurricane. I expect it to be a hurricane by the intermediate advisory at 1 pm CDT.

And hurricanes are dangerous as fuck and the fact it's going to be sitting over the area for a few days, it brings back PTSD flashbacks to TS Allison in 2001.

[Allybeboba]

The worst part of the hurricane in low lying areas along the coasts is the flood surge.

- - - Updated - - -

It's a Tropical Storm now, and nearly a hurricane. I expect it to be a hurricane by the intermediate advisory at 1 pm CDT.

And hurricanes are dangerous as fuck and the fact it's going to be sitting over the area for a few days, it brings back PTSD flashbacks to TS Allison in 2001.

The only reason Allison was bad is because it stalled over the east side. Federal Rd area got hit the worst.

[melodramocracy]

Countdown for the ever-so independent state of Tx to start aking foor fed disaster relief, quickly followed by discussions about seceding.

/snark aside, stay safe.

[johnhoftb]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/241657.shtml

Hurricane now with 80 mph winds.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 241657
TCUAT4

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

[Beazy]

Hopefully we get some rain up here in Dallas.

[tonic316]

hoping this takes out some of the morons who want to secede. Gods plan right?!

(Infracted)

[johnhoftb]

Out of the NWS Office out of San Antonio:

[PhantasmagoriaX]

Oh texas, I am so glad I don't live there anymore (for more reasons then 1) I used to live in a city called San Marcos (dead center between Austin and San Antonio) and in those 4 years I was there 2 of those years has flooded.. BADLY... and the city didnt even know how to handle it lol.

[Boole]

TL;DR before you read.

As of this writing:

• The National Hurricane Center is expecting a Category 3 storm to hit the Aransas Bay area, with a possibly movement from South Padre Island to possibly Matagorda Bay, which includes the city of Corpus Christi.
• Regardless of whether you get hit by the hurricane, expect a major rain event this weekend from a line from along and south of San Antonio to Austin to Houston as Harvey is expected to stall out soon after making landfall.

Full advisories at 10 and 4 am and pm CDT and intermediates at 2 and 7 and smaller advisories in between if necessary.

The fuckwits in the media will find some way to blame Bush Jr. for this one too, just wait. Need something to keep the drumbeat narrative after the sheep grow bored of the OMG RACIST plan in play.

- - - Updated - - -

hoping this takes out some of the morons who want to secede. Gods plan right?!

Tolerance FTW!!!!