Yeah, crazy to think that since November 4th, we had more market growth in 8 months than we did in the previous 5 years, and most of that was market catch up after the 2009 bottom out.
Do i think blanket tax cuts will work? not really, but a solid tax reform, which investors are banking on, will absolutely help. If we close loopholes and make it impossible for individuals and businesses to evade taxes, while adding a little bit of a tax break, it will better in the long run.
Current tax reform has 3 tiers
15%
25%
35%
This system is also closing loopholes, this would actually be a really big deal and a legislative win for BOTH PARTIES, i just hope that the dems dont go into "never Trump" mode and just oppose it to oppose it.
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The markets are confident about tax reform and healthcare reform, if investors believed he could get nothing done and we would stay at the status-quo, the markets would be just as anemic as they were this time last year. But, what do i know, im just a financial analyst
my 401k has been rocketing forward like its been on crack. so far, im liking this.
That's complete hogwash, earnings have brought the market back up the Trump trade died a long time ago. There is still confidence in tax reform passing and some deregulation from banks these are currently priced in. I spent years as a financial analysts and you have to admit the reason the market is the way it is for the most part aside from earnings is central bank interventions which neither Trump or Obama have anything to do with.
I did state this is all because of investor confidence, its nothing Trump himself has done, its everything to do with how investors see the future. That future being deregulation, and tax reform, which ultimately is something congress will hopefully pass, because our tax system is complete dog shit.
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Sigh, you missed the point completely
The Stock Market is a horrible indicator of the state of the economy. There's an absurd level of disconnect between what happens there and the average consumer's buying power.
And Trump hasn't done SHIT. Like...literally he has not done one thing while in office that would have any effect on this.
Human progress isn't measured by industry. It's measured by the value you place on a life.
Just, be kind.
Investors are confident that central banks will not raise rates as fast because Trump is unstable, after the failure of repealing the ACA most of the confidence that he will pass something is low. The republican party is even more divided when it comes to tax reform than it was for healthcare, the only people believe this will be an easy lift are the people in the administration. You need bi-partisanship to pass real tax reform the most the market is hoping for is a short term lowering of tax rates using reconciliation, that's the reality.
Thanks Trump, I look forward to 7 more years of economic prosperity.
The Fed wouldn't raise rates rapidly anyways because of QE, rates are far to volatile, that's been knowledge for years.
Problem with the republicans is the same shit story its always been, freedom caucus, tea baggers, and rhinos fucking up everything for the more moderate people who are actually willing to keep taxes roughly where they are, with a reform to a broken system. The key to tax reform is to reach across the isle to the moderate dems, if here are any left, who are actually willing to work with the moderate republicans on the hill. I dont think reform will be easy, it never is, but investors are banking on it getting done before 2020, which i believe it will be.
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Not only that, most of the "killed jobs" don't even exist anymore. No business will ever bring major factory jobs back to the US where they have to pay for benefit packages, higher wages, higher taxes, it makes no sense. Only thing you can do is pass some reform and hope newer business that are based in the US dont use good old inversion to run away. Saying jobs are coming back is just pandering
The fed has signaled more rate hikes this year far more than the market is pricing in. The real problem is inflation rates are not fitting the fed model but we shall see this is an economic experiment no one has ever done this especially on a global scale.
The odds of democrats voting for a tax reform being pushed by Trump are slim to none, any democrat that will work with him is going to be lose their jobs. Trump has not reached across the isle, he has spent most of his time attacking and blaming democrats and their leaders heck he even attacks people in his own party.Problem with the republicans is the same shit story its always been, freedom caucus, tea baggers, and rhinos fucking up everything for the more moderate people who are actually willing to keep taxes roughly where they are, with a reform to a broken system. The key to tax reform is to reach across the isle to the moderate dems, if here are any left, who are actually willing to work with the moderate republicans on the hill. I dont think reform will be easy, it never is, but investors are banking on it getting done before 2020, which i believe it will be.
Senators on both side, if they don't actually do something, are all going to lose their jobs anyways (which would be nice). The system has been frozen since half way through GWB 8 years. If repubs and dems start getting voted out of office, fuck em, they don't do shit anyways.
On the Fed though, they say rates are expected to rise all the time, and almost always back out of it until the next FOMC meeting.
I doubt the system is going to change republicans proved that doing nothing gets rewarded, the two party system means we have no choice. Trump is a lame duck president whether he knows it or not, honestly I was hoping he did get things done so people can actually get what they voted for.
As for the Fed I agree that it is hard to take their rate warnings seriously at this point given their track record.
It has nothing to do with the confidence in Trump, which polling is showing the opposite is true, it is a continuing trend showing the US economy is gaining strength and meeting pent up demand from the recession.
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The government has been "highly active" and "interventionist" in the economy since the 19th century in all developed nations across the world. Whatever you think the relationship between the economy and federal/state/local government is or should be, is wrong.
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It has been in an upward trajectory since the recession, this is a continuation of pent up demand being met, and inflation is still a non-issue, so we have many more years of developed nation GDP growth before any inflation fears. You want a multi-decadal period of growth? Subsidize green energy technology and science.
Oh, like Solyndra(recieved $500,000,000 in taxpayer money and closed it doors in 2011), Solar Trust of America(Filed Bankruptcy in Oakland, CA, April 3, 2012), Bright Source, LSP Energy(filed bankruptcy protection and a sale of its assets in Feb 2012, ), Energy Conversion Devices(filed bankruptcy protection - 2012), Energy Conversion Devices( filed for bankruptcy 2012), Evergreen Solar(received $527 Million in Taxpayer money from Obama and filed bankruptcy in late 2011), Azure Dynamics(filed for bankruptcy in June , 2012 ), Ener1(received a $118 million U.S. Energy Department grant from President Obama to make electric-car batteries but filed for bankruptcy protection January 2012 after defaulting on bond debt. )
Yeah, you invest you money in green energy and enjoy the soup kitchen.