PTR 5.4 Caster Trinkets first look.

[Hatelocker]

With an RPPM of 1.21 doesn't that mean Wush should proc on avg approx. every 49 seconds and it would last for 10 seconds (should actually proc more frequently once you account for the bad luck protection) and the Amp trinket has a 115 sec ICD and lasts for 20 seconds. If that's the case with the way warlocks work (especially if affliction ends up being my spec for progression) I would rather have the stronger more powerful, yet shorter duration procs.

[Deleted]

idd, you wont get rid of your t15 trinkets any time soon with the way t16 trinkets are atm.

[Deleted]

With an RPPM of 1.21 doesn't that mean Wush should proc on avg approx. every 49 seconds and it would last for 10 seconds (should actually proc more frequently once you account for the bad luck protection) and the Amp trinket has a 115 sec ICD and lasts for 20 seconds. If that's the case with the way warlocks work (especially if affliction ends up being my spec for progression) I would rather have the stronger more powerful, yet shorter duration procs.

True, a HC TF Wushoolay gives you a ~17k intellect proc on average every 50s. Bindings HC WF gives ~14k intellect on a 115s ICD. Even with the passive being much stronger than the hit rating on Wushoolay, as affliction I don't think I will replace my t15 old trinkets for a very long time.

I actually think the only trinkets worth anything are the FCoR (cleave) because it's very good situationally, and KTT (multi-strike) is just better than Breath. It procs 13,2k intellect for 10s at 0,92 RPPM, and 15,8% chance to do 1/3 extra damage. Breath has more RPPM at 1,1 but it procs only ~8,5k intellect and the haste is a fair bit worse than the KTT passive.

[Deleted]

afaik the chance to multistrike has been redcuded to 14% on the KTT.

[Deleted]

14% is normal, I was talking about HC.

[dahri]

Well, I wouldn't draw to manyconclusions yet since balancing isn't don't yet and because of the planned extensive changes to PPM.
Don't forget that when they reset the "time since last proc" to 90 seconds on pull (which means that the trinkets usually wont proc on pull), and removed double dipping on haste and crit (less uptime on chayes, BoTH, wusho, UVLS and metagem) the new non-ppm trinket look much stronger.

[Jetjaguar]

HTF Wush is very strong on the PTR

[Xorn]

RPPM was designed such that frequency of proc chances doesn't have an impact on the number of procs you get. The only thing that matters is the time since the last proc, and the current RPPM value of the trinket.

In practice there is (apparently) a super small increase in proc chance the more attacks you have, but it's not noticeable in any way and isn't significant.

I want further to expand my response to this.

It is not a "super small increase," and in fact it is INCREDIBLY significant. What it boils down to is a binomial probability distribution, where the number of events is the number of spell casts, and a success is defined as a proc. Because I suck at doing distributions by hand, I used this tool:

http://easycalculation.com/statistic...stribution.php

Now, let's say we cast 2 SF with a 5% chance to proc the trinket. Let's calculate the odds of getting at least one proc. Our n=1 and r=0 (we will subtract from 1 to get the odds of getting at least one proc) with a p=.05. We can see that the odds of getting at least one proc are about 10% with 2 chances.

However, if those were instead SB we would have to factor in crit chance. To do this we'll use the same distribution to calculate the odds of getting 2 crits in a row with SB to give us the same two chances we had in the first example. Using your own crit rating of 27.96% the odds of getting 2 crits in a row are 7.8%. Therefore, by casting 2 non-guaranteed crit spells there is only a 7.8% chance that you will have a 10% chance to get at least one proc, which is less than a 1% chance of getting at least one proc overall.

To simplify this even further, at any given moment in time the chance 1 SF would proc the trinket is simply whatever the proc chance happens to be at that moment, as it will be a guaranteed crit. The chance that any other spell will proc it at that moment in time is whatever the proc chance is at that moment, multiplied by your chance to crit.

So you see, by using a guaranteed crit spell instead of a non-guaranteed crit, there is a very significant increase in proc chance that has nothing to do with RPPM mechanics, and everything to do with statistical chance.

[Deleted]

Maybe, but you can't forget you also have Immolate and RoF ticking constantly, or Doom plus Corruption. That evens out the chances to proc between casting SF vs SB a lot. In the cast time of a CB (3s base) you are also getting 3 RoF ticks plus an Immolate tick. So if you have 30% chance to crit, you're getting 4 spells that have a chance to proc plus the casted one that could have 30% or 100%. The difference is just 0,44 average crits per damage instance for CB, versus 0,3 average crits per damage instance for any regular spell instead of CB.

In any case I strongly doubt you can use this in any meaningful way. You can cast CBs to get roughly 50% extra chance to proc, but I don't think that's ever worth it considering CB is costly in embers.

[Brusalk]

I want further to expand my response to this.

It is not a "super small increase," and in fact it is INCREDIBLY significant. What it boils down to is a binomial probability distribution, where the number of events is the number of spell casts, and a success is defined as a proc. Because I suck at doing distributions by hand, I used this tool:

http://easycalculation.com/statistic...stribution.php

Now, let's say we cast 2 SF with a 5% chance to proc the trinket. Let's calculate the odds of getting at least one proc. Our n=1 and r=0 (we will subtract from 1 to get the odds of getting at least one proc) with a p=.05. We can see that the odds of getting at least one proc are about 10% with 2 chances.

However, if those were instead SB we would have to factor in crit chance. To do this we'll use the same distribution to calculate the odds of getting 2 crits in a row with SB to give us the same two chances we had in the first example. Using your own crit rating of 27.96% the odds of getting 2 crits in a row are 7.8%. Therefore, by casting 2 non-guaranteed crit spells there is only a 7.8% chance that you will have a 10% chance to get at least one proc, which is less than a 1% chance of getting at least one proc overall.

To simplify this even further, at any given moment in time the chance 1 SF would proc the trinket is simply whatever the proc chance happens to be at that moment, as it will be a guaranteed crit. The chance that any other spell will proc it at that moment in time is whatever the proc chance is at that moment, multiplied by your chance to crit.

So you see, by using a guaranteed crit spell instead of a non-guaranteed crit, there is a very significant increase in proc chance that has nothing to do with RPPM mechanics, and everything to do with statistical chance.

I think you have a flawed understanding of RPPM.

Here are even more nitty gritty details, if you're interested:
It can proc from any damage/healing event. It keeps track of the last time it had a chance to proc for that enchant.
It calculates the difference in time since the last chance to proc. It uses that time to determine the chance for that event to trigger a proc.
For example, if you have 22% Haste, it was 1.4sec since the last chance to proc, and you've got Windsong, then the chance to proc is 2(ppm) * 1.22(haste) * 1.4(time since last chance) / 60 (sec per min) = 5.693%.
The 'time since the last chance to proc' is capped at 10sec, so that your first attack of a fight isn't a guaranteed proc.

The rough formula for a chance to proc isn't static. It changes based on the time since the last chance to proc. Not taking into account bad-streak protection, the % chance on a particular event to proc is:

Proc Chance = (PPM Value)*(1+Spell Haste)*(Current Time - Last Proc Time)/60

The important bit being the (Current Time - Last Proc Time)/60. The chance for a particular attack to proc the trinket is dependent on the time since the last successful chance to proc. There's no effective change between having an attack every 2 seconds, or every 1.

Say we have 0% haste and 2 PPM.

Now say we have had 2 seconds go by since our last successful chance to proc. Our proc chance for that particular attack is: 2*1*(2-0)/60 = 4/60 = 1/15.
Now let's say we have had only 1 second go by since the last chance to proc. Our proc chance for that attack is: 2*1*(1-0)/60 = 2/60 = 1/30.

There's effectively no difference (by design) between having chances to proc every second, or every 10 seconds.

The only reason we get haste scaling on the value of the trinkets is because it is a multiplier onto the proc chance artificially. if that wasn't the case there's be no difference in the value of trinkets whether you had 0 haste or infinite haste. You'd still have roughly the same PPM.

[Xorn]

The problem is, is that you're looking at the fight as a whole as saying "it makes no difference" when there is mathematical proof that on a per cast basis it absolutely makes a difference. Especially when, for example, the time since last proc is incredibly low. When the time is lower, the chance is lower and therefore even lower with a spell that doesn't automatically crit. Mechanics like SF that guarantee crits bring up the chances of getting a proc soon after a previous proc, increasing overall up time with a little luck.

Sure the RPPM system smooths out streaks of bad luck by increasing the proc chance over time, which will in theory give you a minimum number of procs, but there is still something to be said for proc chance on a cast by cast basis.

[luckydevours]

Actually the frequency of events which can activate an RPPM effect is totally irrelevant since the basic RPPM formula which explicitly accounts for the time since the last event is this:

Base Proc Chance = (PPM Value) * (1 + Haste) * (Time since last Chance) / 60 (sec per min)

This base value which is totally indefferent concerning the time since the last proc is then modified to prevent streaks of bad luck:

Proc Chance = Base Proc Chance * MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3)

So in general you can say the frequency of events which can proc an RPPM effect is irrelevent concerning the amount of procs in the course of time.

[Deleted]

The problem is, is that you're looking at the fight as a whole as saying "it makes no difference" when there is mathematical proof that on a per cast basis it absolutely makes a difference. Especially when, for example, the time since last proc is incredibly low. When the time is lower, the chance is lower and therefore even lower with a spell that doesn't automatically crit. Mechanics like SF that guarantee crits bring up the chances of getting a proc soon after a previous proc, increasing overall up time with a little luck.

im fairly sure you're wrong about this. SF wont bring your chance of getting a proc soon after a previous proc, all SF does in this case with a trinket like cha-ye's, is giving you a garanteed chance to proc the trinket, something a non-critting spell wouldnt, it will only give you more chances, you arent garanteed more procs.

[Xorn]

im fairly sure you're wrong about this. SF wont bring your chance of getting a proc soon after a previous proc, all SF does in this case with a trinket like cha-ye's, is giving you a garanteed chance to proc the trinket, something a non-critting spell wouldnt, it will only give you more chances, you arent garanteed more procs.

That's my whole point. In general more chances = more procs. While nothing is a given, in general the more chances you have at a proc, the more likely it is that you are going to get that proc. The only thing that RPPM does is make trinkets less predictable and attempt to smooth out streaks of bad luck, it has absolutely no impact on good luck, nor can it magically alter statistical probability. Assuming an equal critical strike chance, specs that have abilities that automatically crit WILL have a higher uptime on average over a spec that has no auto-crits. It might not be very drastic, and it might be a small increase, but it will be there.

[Deleted]

That's my whole point. In general more chances = more procs. While nothing is a given, in general the more chances you have at a proc, the more likely it is that you are going to get that proc. The only thing that RPPM does is make trinkets less predictable and attempt to smooth out streaks of bad luck, it has absolutely no impact on good luck, nor can it magically alter statistical probability. Assuming an equal critical strike chance, specs that have abilities that automatically crit WILL have a higher uptime on average over a spec that has no auto-crits. It might not be very drastic, and it might be a small increase, but it will be there.

If you look at the PPM formula it is very clear that it has an extremely small effect how many chances to proc you get. Guaranteed crits just give you a lower multiplier on the ''time since last chance'' component, and as such they are no different from casting more spells. Considering you deal damage over once per second with 25% crit chance at least, you have enough chances to proc with or without guaranteed procs that it makes absolutely no relevant difference. There is nothing ''magical'' about it, the formula is just clever enough to recognize when you crit more often or less and adjust based off it on the fly.

[Xorn]

Oh Jesus H Christ.

I've been misreading the formula the entire time. I was reading it as "time since last proc" and not "time since last chance to proc."

Holy shit I feel stupid.

[Brusalk]

Oh Jesus H Christ.

I've been misreading the formula the entire time. I was reading it as "time since last proc" and not "time since last chance to proc."

Holy shit I feel stupid.

That explains the confusion.

[Rayaleith]

Some day as we approach the release day one should consolidate the info on trinkets per spec etc.

[Werst]

Hopefully in the "numbers tuning" will do something about BBoY really not being able to stack to 10 in its duration for affliction...at least not functionally. Right now my impression of the trinkets is as follows:

Amp: obv bis but since the crit rate buff doesn't impact pet crits locks get less out of it.
Cleave: sleeper so far but since pets and guardians can't proc it the trinket is weaker for locks than other classes
Damage duplication: possible second bis simply for lack of other options BUT again pets/guardians get nothing from it.
Haste w' stacking int: locks can't really stack this in its duration while others can....channel ticks are good for others but not for locks.
Int w' crit proc: works for our pets and us, no RPPM randomness, just not a raid drop so no heroic ilvl (last I checked its an island piece)

At the same time UVLS and the other T15 trinkets get a nerf due to the RPPM change.

[Deleted]

Hopefully in the "numbers tuning" will do something about BBoY really not being able to stack to 10 in its duration for affliction...at least not functionally. Right now my impression of the trinkets is as follows:

Amp: obv bis but since the crit rate buff doesn't impact pet crits locks get less out of it.
Cleave: sleeper so far but since pets and guardians can't proc it the trinket is weaker for locks than other classes
Damage duplication: possible second bis simply for lack of other options BUT again pets/guardians get nothing from it.
Haste w' stacking int: locks can't really stack this in its duration while others can....channel ticks are good for others but not for locks.
Int w' crit proc: works for our pets and us, no RPPM randomness, just not a raid drop so no heroic ilvl (last I checked its an island piece)

At the same time UVLS and the other T15 trinkets get a nerf due to the RPPM change.

I don't agree at all.

How is Bindings (amp) ''obviously bis'' when it has a 115s ICD? True, you it lines up somewhat nicely with cooldowns, but that is far fewer procs than the T16 RPPM trinkets as well as Wushoolay/Breath. The passive at 7% is really not that impressive, it's barely more valuable than 2k passive stats found on other trinkets.

I think KTT (multi-strike) is looking more solid than that. The passive turns out to be around 4% damage gain vs the 5% of Bindings, but 0,92 RPPM is so many more procs than 115s ICD. The expected time to proc is 70s vs 120s.

''At the same time UVLS and the other T15 trinkets get a nerf due to the RPPM change.'' Ehm, no? UVLS is nerfed, but Wushoolay/Breath are not. Wushoolay has 10s proc duration with a proc per second, with 1,21 RPPM. That means on average every 50s you're getting a proc up to 17k intellect... That's just insane uptime on the best intellect proc in the game. Breath is also not bad at all at 1,1 RPPM, though it seems the bigger proc and better passive on KTT or Bindings should be able to replace it.