WoW Subscriber estimates

[Osmeric]

Doubtful. They're likely just going to count active accounts (including those active with tokens).

The number of 'active with tokens' accounts they will count in Q1 will be zero. I wonder if I need to repeat this 10 or 20 times in this thread before it sinks in.

[Xenonn]

hopefully around 5 mil or so

[Deleted]

Around 6-7M I guess, probably a littler higher with the Tokens out.

[Abysal]

I don't think it will drop too much. The majority of subs are your typical casual LFR player. When you consider that LFR Blackrock Foundry unlocked Feb 17th and wing 4 didn't unlock until March 24th and then you consider that Q1 ended on March 31st, it seems likely that most casuals were subbed at the end of Q1.

Q2 is when they'll see a bump from tokens and maybe 6.2 if it's out by the end of June (which I really hope it is). I think the first significant sub drop will come in Q3 as even the typical casual will have cleared all of Hellfire Citadel by the end of Q3. Q4 we might get blizzcon hype to keep subs stable.

Really, when you think about it, they've been really smart from a business perspective with their release schedule, in spite of the complaining from the dedicated few on the forums.

Edit: I voted 8.5-9m but on second thought I expect 9-9.5m

[DPA]

Why are people thinking that subscription tokens will bring down sub numbers in Q2? (I know they wont have effect on Q1)
I believe the sub numbers are not active subscriptions but active accounts, and whether you pay or you buy tokens, the accounts are still active, and will count as active subs.

[IIamaKing]

down to ~7 mil.

[Deleted]

I would say 8-8.5m, a lot of ppl buy subs for longer time not just month for month but i see my friend list and a lot of ppl are gone from weeks or switched to diablo.

[Granyala]

Now where the fuck did you come from with whose 3kk subs?

A much more realistic value for the western world that actually pays subs compared to the Asian model that pay per hour.

[anakin57]

I just checked ATVI's investor relations page on their corp website; Q1 2014's earning transcript came out on May 6th last year, so should be around the same time this year.

[Deleted]

sub numbers are not active subscriptions but active accounts, and whether you pay or you buy tokens, the accounts are still active, and will count as active subs.

no they don't

[Vestig3]

In thinking it dropped 500k.

[IIamaKing]

I'm pretty sure on several occasions they used the current sub number even if it wasn't in that quarter. In fact I'm pretty sure they did that last quarter.

Pretty sure this would be illegal.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh god. Its this crap again.

"I can't wait to see how many people left the game!!!" Talk about needing better things to do with your time.

Even if Blizz lost 8 million subs, they'd still be making more money than all of you combined, many times over. So who cares?

A large loss this soon after a xpack release might show a dislike in the current direction of the game, and they may change course?

[Deleted]

When was q1 and what's the q2 period? A tad confused. I reckon sub numbers was an all time low during the month leading up to the release of the tokens. Then the token purchases probably took the number to level at which mop had. So from 10m at launch to around 6mil prior to the launch of tokens and now currently at 7-8mil.

[Captainn]

I'm thinking 7-8. Anything over 8 and I'd be surprised; anything under 7 and I'd be astounded.

[Jinxz]

even tichondrius, the main PvP server US looks dead all day.

[PrairieChicken]

Given how resilient wow playerbase are I will predict -800,000ish.

[Osmeric]

no they don't

The number they give each year is "active accounts", and includes people who paid with time cards, or people who played on pay-per-hour accounts in Asian markets in the last 30 days. The number will almost certainly include those who bought and used tokens too.

[hrugner]

The number they give each year is "active accounts", and includes people who paid with time cards, or people who played on pay-per-hour accounts in Asian markets in the last 30 days. The number will almost certainly include those who bought and used tokens too.

I don't think they'd count both bought tokens and used tokens as subs. I can't for the life of me remember the term for income from goods or services that haven't been provided yet, but it tends to get its own spot in a quarterly report. I'd expect to see only tokens that have been bought and used as subs, and tokens just bought to show up as the thing I can't remember the name of.

[Osmeric]

I don't think they'd count both bought tokens and used tokens as subs.

Sorry, I meant "bought with gold and then used".

[Talen]

This quarters subscriber count should be here soon (anyone know when?)
Anyway just wondering what you guys think the number will be.
It is a lot quieter on my realm regardless of the connected realms.

Activity is way down on many servers...or at least it feels like it.

As it is, the question isn't so much how many subscribers, but how many actually paying to play the game. The free game time token is probably going to make subscribers numbers less accurate and overly inflated. The actual count might not be down by that much, but how comparable it will be to the previous figures is unknown. Down is a good bet though.

EJL