Mafia 33: The Fall of House Dan'thal?

[Decagon]

Okay, seriously. Now I am worried about being moved to bizarro world here.

A claimed vigilante obviously does not get to use his ability without supervision. So you have mine.
Use that extra night kill to something useful. I'd like to see the discussion on how it is used resolved before midnight.

If you want to lynch me, go ahead. Throw away the opportunity. I'd like to say see if I care, but I do. It's my wincon too. I do care.
This is not about my survival. I am the first to throw myself to the gallows if I am a burden. Ref last game. This is about increasing town win chances.
But I believe that being a vig-on-a-leash is far more useful to the town than being a dead confirmed vig.

So - you think I am an SK?
Who cares. Mafia will kill me in 2 nights, tops. I am dead anyway, so why would I keep struggling as an SK?

So - you think I am a mafia?
Then lynch me with gusto. Then there can be some serious debate on that vote trail tomorrow.

But you are quite right. This current debate is currently being silly.

Unvote
Vote: Virothe

For post 424.

You summed that up a lot better than my post.

[kel]

@kel, @Pistolpink: LoL is a terrible game. DotA(1 and 2) requires so much more skill to play properly.

well you are, REPORTED. Nice try to derail the thread

- - - Updated - - -

omg reprot u fr gaybashing 1v1 me in court jk i hav lawyer D:

Lol, you bad player, I bet your lawyer is bronze n00b like you

- - - Updated - - -

On topic, I still think we should keep danner alive and use him for our own pleasure, I think we, as gentlemen and gentlewomen can agree to a suitable target to lynch and have danner kill. Or if you all think keeping danner around is bad I wouldnt say no to lynching because its a risk to have him around. Either way we make sure we can control or destroy 1 of the who knows how many Nk's there are.

[Arlee]

Mid day vote tally!

Danner (4): Greeney 341, Robo 352, foxxi 398, Catta 399

Lysah (1): Worgen 342

Krayzy (1): Deca 396

Virothe (1): Danner 436

[Krayzy]

I know, right? Gave me half a heart attack.

@KrayDrow
So, what, we're only allowed to theorize and plan after what we know? Ok. We know we have traitors. And we know we have a Danner with a kill ability. And we know the Robosheep can track people. Though, he'd only really need to track Danner, because he's the only one with a confirmed night action other than Robo himself.

Honestly, given the norm of former games, it's only logical to take it into consideration that we MAY have a doctor and we MAY have a cop. No need to ignore their possible existance.

You can do whatever you want. I'm just pointing it out that we shouldn't continue to 100% assume those roles are in the game. When coming up with theories people should be just as cautious to them not being in the game.


Decagon, it's day two and the only deaths we've had so far are from unconverted traitors. It's pretty damn hard to come to any conclusions based on the deaths so far. The voting records from yesterday have little bearing because Kopkap was on his own yesterday and there wasn't really any other secondary person at risk of being lynched (Dyra was for a little bit at first but I didn't ever see that going anywhere), so it's hard to find what role scum had in that lynch or if they played a role in it at all.

[Deleted]

You can do whatever you want. I'm just pointing it out that we shouldn't continue to 100% assume those roles are in the game. When coming up with theories people should be just as cautious to them not being in the game.

I know, and I agree. Theories are just that. Theories. If people for some reason take early thoughts on composition as the gospel truth, then that's on them.

Honestly, I only see today ending the same way yesterday ended. No, not later than it should, but with the obvious lynch happening. But like yesterday was about wether or not we trusted Kopcap, today will just be about wether or not we trust Danner. And with nothing else to go on, lynching anyone other than him will be either RNG, or just on very vague reasons. At least, comparably vague.

[Decagon]

You can do whatever you want. I'm just pointing it out that we shouldn't continue to 100% assume those roles are in the game. When coming up with theories people should be just as cautious to them not being in the game.


Decagon, it's day two and the only deaths we've had so far are from unconverted traitors. It's pretty damn hard to come to any conclusions based on the deaths so far. The voting records from yesterday have little bearing because Kopkap was on his own yesterday and there wasn't really any other secondary person at risk of being lynched (Dyra was for a little bit at first but I didn't ever see that going anywhere), so it's hard to find what role scum had in that lynch or if they played a role in it at all.

You're better at this game than me. If I have theories and I have suspicions, and I voice them, I would expect those who I know are better at the game than I am to do so as well.

[keleb]

A smaller monster incoming!

So, here are my thoughts so far:
Since 2 MALE traitors have died and apparently genders are important I'd guess there are 2 small scum teams(1 male 1 female) with the power to recruit people and/or kill people. This could mean 2 teams of like 3-4 people and a lot of traitors around making it a bad idea for scum to try to kill as they could hit someone that could instead join their team.

Since 1 person has died tonight, and with my 2 teams idea, a SK and danners Vigi claim. 4 deaths could happen at any time and I dont think that claiming tracker was a good idea by robbo because he is now exposed.
However I get why he did so, because he has info on danner. This is the only info we have so far and to be honest I dont believe that Danner is a vigi. This is mafia, we have to assume the worst, but voting for danner is also out of the question because it's possible danner is vigi and losing a vigi would hurt a lot on day 2. I think we should decide on who we lynch today and tell Danner who to kill, while this wont prove danner is vigi we can certainly use it to our advantage for now.

This much good contribution in one post! Who's standing behind you with a gun? Keep it up. I don't fully agree with you. I do believe that male and female do have some meaning, but I'm not sure about two teams. What speaks for two teams is that if it's a 2-week game we need more kills and two teams give you more kills than one. If it's that there's a male team that recruit female traitors and become couples or something or if it's just one-sex teams I don't know. If it's just one team, two recruiters of separate sex with limitation of only recruit same or opposite sex is also something to consider. At this point, we know nothing though and we can't get much out of it now.

And I agree with you that I think Robo's claim was unnecessary. Danner was likely to be under some scrutiny today and the claim might not have been needed. Even though Danner was seen going to the dead target does not make him scum so revelation was a bit to soon imo, can't really say it was right out wrong though as I think we have and will get something out of it.

But sure. I can buy that I should be town controlled. How do we want to control my ability? Here's a few option, in the order of my preference:

Kill by representation? You select one player that decides whom I kill.
Me listening to people I think I should trust? (Pistol, Blood Fox... possibly a few more)?
Kill #2 on the daily vote list? I fear the mafia could game this to at least one townie dying every night, but it's not a bad option.
Me just listing cake candidates 24 hrs before each deadline, and we have a vote for the least useful player in that bundle? This was my original game plan, minus the vote part.
Kill by nominations? As in everyone posts recommendations and I pick the one I like out of these.
Kill by separate vote? Two votes going on, and I just kill the topmost separation vote. Kinda silly to have two votes going on though; they should be really similar!
Kill by randomness, where I just use the text of the last post of the day as the seed at random.org? (I don't like this)

[non-serious]Kill the person with the most fluff posts.
Kill the person who has the least posts.
Kill the person who has the 6th most posts (this will boost activity a lot on a certain area of posting, which you then combine with my first suggestion).[/non-serious]

At first this moved you a good bit towards being SK in my eyes. SK wouldn't care who got killed (except yourself) so you can safely give away decision making to the town. Then I thought that discussing targets in the open might give us a 2nd "voting record" each day which might give us a more info faster than we usually do. I do not feel that it would be enough though.

I would say that the best opinion is that you yourself each night use your own judgement on who you think should be killed and not say who beforehand.

Let's assume Danner if Vigilante. Then we know that the only person he can trust is himself. He can't trust Blood Fox (even though he says he can) as much as he can trust himself. He knows he's not scum. If Danner just blank out randoms a kill but removes himself (you don't kill confirmed townies as Vigilante) he's got a better chance of hitting scum than if he hands over the reins to person X who he's 95 % sure is town who then does the randoming. In the latter case there's a 5 % chance that there's a scum less in the randoming.

Assume Danner is SK. He won't case who he kills or not except maybe if there was someone he knew was a bomb or PGO. Handing the reins to the town would just give town a false sense of control as he won't kill himself.

Assume Danner is Mafia. This is where town might benefit. If town decides on a town target for him, we won't learn anything. If we do decide on a scum-buddy of Danner he's in a bit of a predicament. He might bus his mate but he's still not unlikely to die from SK/Vigi/Lynch himself so his rep-boost won't really be worth it. He might also pass up his kill or kill something else and claim redirection, jail/RB, protection. The problem the town now face is if he's actually telling the truth. Did we catch him in a lie or did he just manage to out a TPR (as we "know" who was targeted). There's a lot of deception.

Assume again that Danner is Vigilante. Town decides that Danner should kill player X who happens to be the cop and just like that we've also outed the cop. What if player X is doc/JK. Should you claim or should you protect yourself/block danner and cause the town to be confused for a day?

I think giving away the choice of who to kill is a bad move if you're Vigilante. An even worse move if you're Mafia and not a bad move if you're SK. If it was poor play or trick play from Danner is hard to tell. I think we should leave him alive for the moment though. Mafia (and SK if there is one and Danner is Vigi) are likely to want him dead as well, so let's not waste our lynch on him.

Well - I decided to revert back to one of my old strategies to figure out who hadn't posted in quite some time (which was Dyra at 223) but I stumbled across something even more interesting - Foxxi was willing to let Kop live and Krayzy believed Kop's claim as miller. Then again, so did Danner - but Krayzy only had three posts concerning the RC of miller - one in reference to the GoT game. He is also one who voted for a no-lynch. Foxxi has had as many posts as I have had - but hers had more substance to them than Krayzy's 10 posts had.

I really don't see the relation to anything bad. It feels a bit like saying "The ball was blue so player X might be scum."

I guess one thing that was mentioned yesterday has turned out to be painfully true: the votingrecords are kind of useless. People who voted Kopcap aren't necessarily Town, and those who believed him aren't necessarily Scum. Damn traitors. It's good that they die, but their Deaths are useless when it comes to hunting down actual scum.

I wouldn't say useless. Today it's of little to minimal use. In a few days it might be worth something though.

But more importantly; you are bringing a new perspective to the table: "Look at Foxxi and Krayzy". Right now, that's far above par.

You saying this while at the same time I don't really see anything in what falbacca wrote just makes it feel like you're trying to divert.

Vote: Decagon

Reason: I like playing with you and all, but I would also like you to cast at least one vote this game.

I might sign up for a policy lynch on a no-voter.

Now onto my theory:
Id like to point out this is just an idea that occured to me today and I have no real proof besides what is widely known and that Danner is an expierenced mafia player.

Danner received a Serial Killer role card. He knows he wont survive the game as a serial killer and tries to think on how to survive the game.
Vigilantes are town-aligned killers so a good fake claim but people might see through it. What Danner needs is a solid killing record.
He sees Kop acting all weird. So if kop doesnt get lynched Danner can kill him and claim he thought he was scum.
But Kop hands Danner a winning lotto ticket. He claims miller. And we can all agree Millers have to die.
So what Danner does is come up with a plan to keep Kop alive so he can kill him at night to give himself a solid killing record.
Giving danner another day's breath.

In a way I agree with you, but I also feel it's a bit too planned. Sure Danner could do it, but it feels to much of overthinking it to me.

Four arms for maximized DPS, super-human strength, razor sharp claws, bite attack, and a short temper...
http://forgottenrealms.wikia.com/wiki/Draegloth

You were given a character that has a CE alignment. Personally I would put Vigilante right into the CG alignment without question. However, Drow all seem to fall into one of the three Evil alignments which makes it a bit more tricky. Can't say it speaks for you though even if it doesn't speak as much against you as it might.

This is where I disagree. Never claim miller. Basically, if you play well enough town, you will never get investigated. As miller, you just need to try harder to be useful than if you were any other role.

It's actually worse in my opinion. To me, claiming miller is claiming scum

It's all down to feeling. Either you claim early (imo, it should be first post, the later the less value it has) or not at all. If you feel it unlikely you'll be targeted by the cop during the first three days (due to your play style) then you shouldn't claim. If you feel it's not unlikely you'll be targeted by cop, you should probably claim. If you don't claim and get investigated early, you risk outing the cop. If you do claim, you should be ready to be policy lynched but as you to yourself is the only confirmed townie, you still shouldn't vote yourself for that reason but instead fight to stay alive. If you don't claim and eventually do get investigated you should claim miller, but to keep the town trusting the cop you should probably get lynched.

Every single person who has used the excuse "but Day 1!" has been scum.

I think you don't have played enough games then. I also think I used the excuse as VT for a few games. Not outright "Day 1 ffs" but more like "Be lenient, it's D1".

I didn't believe it yesterday; I don't believe it today. The possibility of a vigilante rather than an SK in this setting is not something I buy. As for directing danner to kill targets, that changes nothing. I don't know what allegiance any of you have, how do I know it's not going to be scum directing the kill target? More importantly how would -danner- know he's not a tool of scum?? The whole prospect reeks of SK to me "I'll kill whoever you all agree on, it's all good... I'm yours to command" an SK won't care who dies, as long as it isn't them.

I'm of very much the same opinion.

As for thinking you would have to claim today because you'd get flack for defending a traitor why on earth would you think that? Just as no one will blame those voting on a claim of miller... No one would blame you for defending a what is in essence a lone scum - since you could not have known his affiliation. And I think -you- know that.

I think you've got some good points here.

qq, why does no one want to focus on Lysah?

I'm being serious here ._.

I can't quote it word for word obviously, but it says I win if Lysah dies. I have no means to do that myself though >_< I have to either lead a lynch on her(which no one will listen to) or hope someone listens to me that can nk and do it for me.

So you're more or less claiming lyncher and that Lysah is your Lynchee. I'm a bit confused by this, why didn't you claim cop? With potentially two TPR already outed, I would deep it unlikely a cop would counter-claim on D2. And if you win if Lysah is killed by a NK which it seems, I don't see the need to claim at this stage. I don't think doe eyes will get you were you want atm.

A claimed vigilante obviously does not get to use his ability without supervision. So you have mine.
Use that extra night kill to something useful. I'd like to see the discussion on how it is used resolved before midnight.

I really disagree. If town thinks you're vigilante, then town thinks your town. The rest of the players are not all town so if town has a say then decision on who to kill will not be all town made, which it will if you do it.

But I believe that being a vig-on-a-leash is far more useful to the town than being a dead confirmed vig.

It all depends on who's holding the leash.

You can do whatever you want. I'm just pointing it out that we shouldn't continue to 100% assume those roles are in the game. When coming up with theories people should be just as cautious to them not being in the game.

In a way. I don't think I ever think it's 100 % certain there's a doc and/or cop in this game (unless it's open setup). But generally I feel those two roles are considerably more likely to be in a game than any other TPR, no matter what the theme.

[Virothe]

Okay, seriously. Now I am worried about being moved to bizarro world here.

A claimed vigilante obviously does not get to use his ability without supervision. So you have mine.
Use that extra night kill to something useful. I'd like to see the discussion on how it is used resolved before midnight.

If you want to lynch me, go ahead. Throw away the opportunity. I'd like to say see if I care, but I do. It's my wincon too. I do care.
This is not about my survival. I am the first to throw myself to the gallows if I am a burden. Ref last game. This is about increasing town win chances.
But I believe that being a vig-on-a-leash is far more useful to the town than being a dead confirmed vig.

So - you think I am an SK?
Who cares. Mafia will kill me in 2 nights, tops. I am dead anyway, so why would I keep struggling as an SK?

So - you think I am a mafia?
Then lynch me with gusto. Then there can be some serious debate on that vote trail tomorrow.

But you are quite right. This current debate is currently being silly.

Unvote
Vote: Virothe

For post 424.

So, you're going to vote on me for pointing out that you didn't need to kill someone in order to live through this day, and that you made a bad play? That a Vigilante who values his life over that of other town and kills night one with no real reason for it is a danger? Lovely. I wasn't even voting for you because I thought all you did was make a bad call and I was willing to give you a chance.

Regardless though, Vigi's are a double edged blade. If scum get control who he chooses to go after we are as good as screwed. All I am doing here is stating we have to be cautious with how we proceed from here. : /

[Decagon]

@ Keleb

Having the vig target someone would be like having a second voting record, so I think we should act like it's essentially a vote, perhaps like this

Vig: Keleb

^^ example only, that would not be who I would vigvote for right now. Either that, or like you said, just have Danner decide, because that's a 100% town decision.

I don't care what Day it is, if something of relevance happens, you should respond accordingly (unless you're legitimately gone) I don't give leniency based on "because it's Day 1" I give leniency because the information is not relevant or easily discussed. My biggest pet peeve in this game is that people don't give any credence to Day 1 even if something happens, like a roleclaim.

[Krayzy]

You're better at this game than me. If I have theories and I have suspicions, and I voice them, I would expect those who I know are better at the game than I am to do so as well.

Voicing too much early on is dangerous. If I'm wrong and others treat it as gospel then I will have detoured people off of the truth.

You have to be careful with what you share because it can easily sway someones opinion of others and that is dangerous because people will start to see interactions that person (or persons) has with others in another light. The same goes for if I am right as well. Scum will see that I am right and will either try and sway the tide in a different direction (this is risky because if the initial person is scum then there will be a connection that could be made) or they could jump on with what I am saying and build up their credibility with everyone else by sacrificing one of their own.

Now I'm not saying that people shouldn't state their opinions. Of course they should. They just shouldn't share everything they are thinking. They need to keep some stuff quiet so that they can see how things play out without it being affected by it being pointed out for all to see.

So far in this game I have my suspicions of some people, but nothing really concrete. I do have one or two people in mind that I am taking a good long look at to see how they interact with others. After seeing Kopkap come back as a traitor I went back through a lot of posts and I've seen some people who look like they may also be playing the role of a traitor. I'll see if they stand out further in the next day or so and if they do then I will post on that. Until then I have little to go on outside of Robo being a tracker (and we know his night 1 results) and Danner having killed someone (someone I never even saw as suspicious yet).

[Decagon]

Hm, okay. I guess that makes sense, I'm just not a big fan of that playstyle.

unvote

[Danner]

Virothe:
Yeah, you're not even making a remotely sane argument here. The vote stays.

I am telling you all to figure out how to control my night ability. I gave a few options, in a preferred order. Not much discussion on that has taken place, apart from Pistol and Kel weighing in. Please speak up on how to handle the kill. If you think I should never use the ability again, that is an option too!

I will listen to what everyone says and use the most popular method. If you don't decide by midnight,

Keleb:
I'm not gonna take the kill direction without any scrutiny, of course. But being utterly clueless about whom to kill, I am not opposed to taking input. It's not a bad deal, and the arrangement won't last for many days either way. I am marked for death after all.

But yeah, I would consider the arrangement like the norwegian monarch. The King of Norway has the power of Veto on any new law. But it's basically a one-shot ability. If used, the government is dissolved, a new election is set up, and the new government will very likely be the same as the old one. Who will then promptly make the king resign. Permanently. As such, the veto is more of a safety guard against immediate government insanity than anything else.

If I kill someone else than the one I was assigned to kill, it will be the last thing I do. Unless I am right and hits a godfather. But eh. I haven't been much right this game.

--

Either way. Enough work for one day. Heading home!

This game ate too much of my working hours. Ended up with a 12.5 hrs shift as a result

[listo95]

Just showing I am currently here and am catching up on the thread (what a nap will do!). Although I have to be at work in like 30mins I will think stuff over there and then when I get back post anything I have thought of.

[Danner]

Midway day 2. Pistol told me to post my cake counters earlier. I will. This is for today only.

People with no day 2 cake:
- Dyra (not yet posted today)
- Krayzy (still playing with a pokerface, offering no info, beyond restating that there may not be a cop/doc)
- Silkku (late to the party)
- Waker (MIA this gameday)
- Worgenite (Still going on Lysah without involving in anything else. Apparently not joking. )

People who have Day 2 cake, but probably shouldn't
- Catta (cake for voicing disbelief of my claim, unfortunately. Still high signal-to-noise ratio)
- Celtic (strongly believes I am scum, which earns him another cakepoint, been gunning for me all game. )
- Foxxi (cake awarded for statement that I should not assume I should be under scrutiny for defending a traitor, despite post 341, 348 proving I am)
- Greeney (cake awarded for reason on his vote on me. But that's not really a weighty contribution)
- Virothe (cake awarded for posts 420, 424, though I strongly feel the argumentation is hogwash!)

[Loaf]

and I said yesterday that your cake smells :P

[Uggorthaholy]

If that's really true then you can lead a lynch on Uggor, instead.

pls no.

Also, try and keep the super ridiculous off topic league conversation out of the game (The 1v1 jokes and whatnot, super shit fluff is annoying as hell)

[Decagon]

pls no.

Also, try and keep the super ridiculous off topic league conversation out of the game (The 1v1 jokes and whatnot, super shit fluff is annoying as hell)

comefiteme1v1bro.

<3<3

It's actually kind of scary because Uggor can ban us again.

[Blood Fox]

ok I'm not going to mega post because I do not have the energy. Sorry or not.

@danner
I have one really burning question, why did you choose to vote on deca claiming it's because he has not voted, When there are many other who have not voted AND have less cake point than deca? This seems extremely constrictive here. I really don't think you're a Vigi and am leaning to SK with the chance of being scum.

Typically in mafia games the mafia kill comes before the Viggy, meaning if mafia kill the vig their shot doesn't go off. so either way a doc isn't going to protect you tonight and we can force mafia to kill danner if we leave danner alone. I rather focus on whats happening today.

Also something that annoys me. While I agree i hate lurker's play and I want to lynch them all, What I don't agree with is that killing off non-actives is going ot make the game go slower, Killing off active's makes the game go slower relative to the amount of people in it. Killing off a inactive doesn't make the actives post more.

[Virothe]

Midway day 2. Pistol told me to post my cake counters earlier. I will. This is for today only.

People with no day 2 cake:
- Dyra (not yet posted today)
- Krayzy (still playing with a pokerface, offering no info, beyond restating that there may not be a cop/doc)
- Silkku (late to the party)
- Waker (MIA this gameday)
- Worgenite (Still going on Lysah without involving in anything else. Apparently not joking. )

People who have Day 2 cake, but probably shouldn't
- Catta (cake for voicing disbelief of my claim, unfortunately. Still high signal-to-noise ratio)
- Celtic (strongly believes I am scum, which earns him another cakepoint, been gunning for me all game. )
- Foxxi (cake awarded for statement that I should not assume I should be under scrutiny for defending a traitor, despite post 341, 348 proving I am)
- Greeney (cake awarded for reason on his vote on me. But that's not really a weighty contribution)
- Virothe (cake awarded for posts 420, 424, though I strongly feel the argumentation is hogwash!)

Ya, I want to apologize I'm not really bringing my A game atm, my Dad got rushed to the hospital this morning and between going to see him and being at work now I haven't been as adept as I would be otherwise.

I just wanted to get something out and be heard, I felt I had something to add but looking back on how I posted I could have done a lot better to be clear and more constructive.

But meh, I will try to do better. But if my Dad gets worse I might have to drop out of the game though. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but ya.

[Danner]

I have one really burning question, why did you choose to vote on deca claiming it's because he has not voted, When there are many other who have not voted AND have less cake point than deca? This seems extremely constrictive here. I really don't think you're a Vigi and am leaning to SK with the chance of being scum.

Typically in mafia games the mafia kill comes before the Viggy, meaning if mafia kill the vig their shot doesn't go off. so either way a doc isn't going to protect you tonight and we can force mafia to kill danner if we leave danner alone.

I voted Deca to force Deca to speak up and cast a vote. Pressure.
It happened. I am more than satisfied with the outcome. I think Decagon has been active and contributing today.

As for why I chose decagon? Well... Arialla had given a reason for absence last gameday, and you know how me and Arialla always get into these fights. I was sort of loathing it happening again. I believe Arialla exploited that last game though; but I don't get scum vibes this game. Kisuro I don't really know much so I wasn't really sure how that would play out... was an option though. Krayzy I didn't see any chance of pressuring into anything; he's just not that kind of player to cave in to pressure. Foxxi was also a valid option, but had already been pushed a bit by Falbacca, and I didn't see the need to push that particular barrel twice. And I had already pressured Falbacca. So I went for Decagon.

I would easily vote either of the lurkers in my list. But right now, Virothe is on my naughty list, and naughty > lurking. So my vote stays on him.

Had I been an SK, I would not have claimed vigilante. Had I been an SK, I would ...
- Not have killed the first night. Just to throw people off.
- Given up once caught red-handed. I mean, there is no chance of winning as an SK in my current position. Why postpone the inevitable?

- - - Updated - - -

And Virothe: I do hope the situation with your father works out.