Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Thekri]

The National Guard is sending Tulsi Gabbard to Indonesia for two weeks of active duty (She will be training Indonesian Military).

I find this pretty funny, but props to her for actually going, she could easily get out of this if she wanted too. I do find it weird that she hasn't resigned from the Guard, it must be incredibly awkward for her commander that she is on the House Armed Services committee and a candidate for president.

[Skroe]

Geez things are not going well for ol' Bernie.

It's early, sure, but the months are quickly burning through. He's in a distant fourth place in (besides Biden, Warren, and Harris) in Iowa, and a distant second place behind Biden, and barely above Warren in New Hampshire.

In Nevada, he polls just under 50% of what Biden is, and again, barely above Warren.

In South Carolina, the last state before Super Tuesday, he's a very distant 2nd.


I thought the progressives would take Iowa and New Hampshire, but it's sure looking like the idea that Warren and Sanders (and Harris) will eat each other and pave a road for Biden to drive over them on Super Tuesday is looking to be true, even in Iowa and New Hampshire. Could Biden really win all 4 states before Super Tuesday? If Warren and Sanders and Harris keep splitting the progressive vote, absolutely.

Thus we return to the core idea: If both Warren and Sanders (and less so Harris) go into Super Tuesday, Biden will be the nominee and it won't even be close. And rather than blame the dastardly DNC, the Bernie Bros will have nobody to blame but Warren for not kneeling to Sanders. Conversely the flipside is true: if Sanders drops out and backs warren, or vice versa, they could probably get close to beating Biden, at the very least... and for sure beat Biden if Harris drops out.

The Democratic Primary is not big enough for 3 progressives occupying the same lane while Biden builds up his center-left fortress without any competition. That is the simple math of the matter.

But how do progressives convince Warren or Sanders to drop before Super Tuesday? Sanders' ego is too big for it, and his supporters - basically a Trump-style cult - will never believe in surrender (only ever that they got screwed). Warren has been building momentum for months and will have zero reason to tell her team to pack it in until Super Tuesday, especially if she wins Iowa or New Hampshire.

Remember: many of the states that MUST be won are winner-take-all for delegates. It's mostly smaller states that assign delegates proportionally based on voter share. And before the Bernie Bros go blame the DNC... that's a State Democratic Party decision and you had years to change that.

This is a real problem for progressives.

[Gestopft]

This is a real problem for progressives.

Yeah, none of the other moderates being able to eat into Biden's support has become a nightmare scenario for progressives. Maybe when all is said and done the next wave of reforms at the DNC will be ranked-choice voting.

[zenkai]

Your posting history gives me no reason to believe you want anyone other than Trump as president.

Wouldn't you have rather seen a different Republican win in 2016 than Trump? The same goes true for Republicans, if they do lose Trump I am sure they would rather see a moderate than an extremist become President.

[rogueMatthias]

The National Guard is sending Tulsi Gabbard to Indonesia for two weeks of active duty (She will be training Indonesian Military).

I find this pretty funny, but props to her for actually going, she could easily get out of this if she wanted too. I do find it weird that she hasn't resigned from the Guard, it must be incredibly awkward for her commander that she is on the House Armed Services committee and a candidate for president.

LoL while that's admirable, shouldn't she be out campaigning instead? Love Tulsi. Pretty depressing how being anti-war and thinking that the government should try and use diplomacy rather than bombing people is seen as a radical point of view nowadays.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, none of the other moderates being able to eat into Biden's support has become a nightmare scenario for progressives. Maybe when all is said and done the next wave of reforms at the DNC will be ranked-choice voting.

While I'm not a Biden fan, I do think he's the only one of the main contenders that has a chance of beating Trump. Warren is a sheep, not a leader, and Harris has enough skeletons in her closet that Trump will have a field day.

[Thekri]

LoL while that's admirable, shouldn't she be out campaigning instead? Love Tulsi. Pretty depressing how being anti-war and thinking that the government should try and use diplomacy rather than bombing people is seen as a radical point of view nowadays.

Pretty sure she is running for VP at this point anyway. Since she is in the reserves, it is good she is fulfilling her obligations, but I am extremely against her being in the reserves in the first place. You should not be a military officer and a politician at the same time. Military political neutrality is in greater danger then it has been in a long time, and this is a really, really bad thing. You cannot be a non-partisan military officer and be launching partisan attacks on other politicians at the same time. She needs to pick one of them and quit the other, because being both is very bad for the country.

[Skroe]

Yeah, none of the other moderates being able to eat into Biden's support has become a nightmare scenario for progressives. Maybe when all is said and done the next wave of reforms at the DNC will be ranked-choice voting.

That wouldn't be a DNC thing to fix though. That would be a State Democratic Party thing. For both Democratic and Republican parties, the State Parties decide how to divvy up delegates (be it Winner take all, Proportional, or in Maine ranked voting).

I suppose in theory the DNC could demand that the State Parties distribute delegates someway, but I doubt the State parties would want to give up that level of control to the national party (give an inch, take a mile thought process) via an edict from on high.

So if this is to be "reformed", realistically its up for change to be done state by state, rather than putting the DNC in the position to demand something of State parties that they're unlikely to just hand over.

I mean think about it. Imagine if you're on the board of directors the Connecticut Democratic Party. How would you react to the DNC issuing a demand so fundamental? You'd likely tell them where they can stick their demand.

[kaelleria]

That wouldn't be a DNC thing to fix though. That would be a State Democratic Party thing. For both Democratic and Republican parties, the State Parties decide how to divvy up delegates (be it Winner take all, Proportional, or in Maine ranked voting).

I suppose in theory the DNC could demand that the State Parties distribute delegates someway, but I doubt the State parties would want to give up that level of control to the national party (give an inch, take a mile thought process) via an edict from on high.

So if this is to be "reformed", realistically its up for change to be done state by state, rather than putting the DNC in the position to demand something of State parties that they're unlikely to just hand over.

I mean think about it. Imagine if you're on the board of directors the Connecticut Democratic Party. How would you react to the DNC issuing a demand so fundamental? You'd likely tell them where they can stick their demand.

Yeah lets implement ranked choice voting so our completely meaningless(at that point) 49 delegates can get distributed to someone that will or will not have the nomination wrapped up a month prior!

While we're at it we can tell Iowa to stop having caucuses and force every state to hold their primaries on the same day.

[Wyrt]

Wouldn't you have rather seen a different Republican win in 2016 than Trump? The same goes true for Republicans, if they do lose Trump I am sure they would rather see a moderate than an extremist become President.

Good thing none of the Democrat frontrunners are extremists then.

[Skroe]

Yeah lets implement ranked choice voting so our completely meaningless(at that point) 49 delegates can get distributed to someone that will or will not have the nomination wrapped up a month prior!

While we're at it we can tell Iowa to stop having caucuses and force every state to hold their primaries on the same day.

Hey I'm not advocating for any of that. I was just pointing out if Democrats want a different arrangement, they have to go state by state to fix it, not blame the DNC for something DNC isn't responsible for.

As it stands now, Biden will likely win the nomination by winning 32-45% of the vote in the winner take all states against a progressive field that divided itself up among too many candidates.

[Theodarzna]

LoL while that's admirable, shouldn't she be out campaigning instead? Love Tulsi. Pretty depressing how being anti-war and thinking that the government should try and use diplomacy rather than bombing people is seen as a radical point of view nowadays.

Our government and I guess many in the establishment media is replete with people for whom they suffer severe sexual dysfunction unless civilians are being droned struck somewhere in the world.

[draynay]

Wouldn't you have rather seen a different Republican win in 2016 than Trump?

Whatever direction the Democratic primary takes us, at least it will never be to a choice between Trump and Cruz.

[Ghostpanther]

And much like I did with Dacien, I call bullshit on this.

As outlined in a previous post of mine, the incredible host of things you have to be okay with in order to support Trump means that you aren't really looking for anyone else to vote for. And if you really did vote Obama 2008, at the very least, you should be someone who is talking along the lines of "I voted Trump, but damn guys I fucked up and won't do it again."

Therefore, it is almost certain that you are just spewing bullshit in this thread. Presumably because you either just want to derail conversation or somehow think you can "jedi mind trick" us into thinking your arguments on who should win the nomination are both genuine and worthy of attention.

I can say that about voting for Obama. And that is no bullshit.

Sometimes you have to go with the best you have, even when it is not what you prefer. You guys who hate Trump, should really be pushing for Biden to win the nomination. He's your best chance of beating Trump.

[cubby]

The Obama->Trump voters are literally a subgroup of people who voted for Trump instead of Hillary. And who do you think is more persuadable- Obama->Trump voters or McCain/Romney->Trump voters? (There are also presumably none->Trump and Obama->none voters too).

But you're characterizing them incorrectly. They are people who went Trump instead of Hillary - which is arguably what you are describing as Obama->Trump voters. So I guess I'm agreeing with you, and I'm just trying to convince myself? Weird.

And I don't buy that there are going to be that many "regret voting for Trump" voters. People knew what they were getting into- he was not exactly an unknown when November 2016 rolled around. I think "didn't vote at all" is not just a bigger potential pool to draw from, but one that can potentially be drawn from without turning off large chunks of the party base.

But there will be some - and those are exactly the people you are after. The thought process you are using to say that "[p]eople knew what they were getting into" is a sane one. That was not present in those that intelligently voted for Trump. They were tricked or lied to or were just plain stupid, but are now smart enough to see the error of their ways - however they want to describe it to themselves. We don't care. What we do know is that those people exist, and someone like Biden can persuade them to "see the light".

Biden is (estimated) fifth among individual donors, though. You might not find anyone particularly inspiring, but compared to four other candidates (thus far), he's not going to be the one with the strongest army of volunteers. Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg have far more individual donors right now. Sanders is getting so many individual donors that the NYT actually made a map without him (second one down) to show where the other candidates are getting their support from. These numbers translate into volunteers. People going door-to-door. I don't see Biden having the most people around the country going out and convincing their fellow Americans to vote for him/her.

The GOP is drooling over even the notion that we'll be dumb enough to nominate Sanders. He is a socialist. Period. And even if that isn't true, which it isn't, it doesn't matter, because the key voters that we need to win those crucial states will see him as just that. So we'll lose.

Biden will have plenty of money when he gets the nomination. Hell, anyone will. Volunteers and grass-roots efforts are an issue, and a concern for the eventual nominee. Sanders might have more now, but the most will be with the person who wins the nomination. Because ALL of those volunteers want to beat Trump, too.

[rogueMatthias]

The GOP is drooling over even the notion that we'll be dumb enough to nominate Sanders. He is a socialist. Period. And even if that isn't true, which it isn't, it doesn't matter, because the key voters that we need to win those crucial states will see him as just that. So we'll lose.

Yeah pretty much this. I like Sanders. He's like Corbyn but actually seems to have common sense and intelligence around him (and isn't an anti-semite that supports terrorist groups..). He'd never get voted in in the USA though; the whole idea of socialism has been demonised there.

Elizabeth Warren comes across a bit desperate to me. She's like the "Cady Heron" to the Squad. Part of me wants her to get the nomination, just so we can see the hilarity of the campaign. Trump's already managed to get her to take a DNA test, just by trolling her so much. I feel he'd give her a nervous breakdown long before it even got to the election.

[Theodarzna]

Yeah pretty much this. I like Sanders. He's like Corbyn but actually seems to have common sense and intelligence around him (and isn't an anti-semite that supports terrorist groups..). He'd never get voted in in the USA though; the whole idea of socialism has been demonised there.

Elizabeth Warren comes across a bit desperate to me. She's like the "Cady Heron" to the Squad. Part of me wants her to get the nomination, just so we can see the hilarity of the campaign. Trump's already managed to get her to take a DNA test, just by trolling her so much. I feel he'd give her a nervous breakdown long before it even got to the election.

Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, appear as though permanently on the rag.

Of all the women candidates, Gabbard is the most overall likable with Warren at least having lots of policy ideas shamelessly riffed from Sanders.

I think the main stumbling block for all these Dems is immigration issue in which all have been pressed into being defacto for Open Borders in all but name.

[rogueMatthias]

I think the main stumbling block for all these Dems is immigration issue in which all have been pressed into being defacto for Open Borders in all but name.

It's not just that, it's that it's warped to one of the largest talking points. Is the biggest concern for most US voters REALLY what welfare undocumented immigrants should be getting?

[Theodarzna]

It's not just that, it's that it's warped to one of the largest talking points. Is the biggest concern for most US voters REALLY what welfare undocumented immigrants should be getting?

The message one gets from this crop of Democrats is that we must drain and dry that Rio Grande, Level the land to ease the passage of Central America into North America. Let them come in their millions, no, in their billions. Decriminalize crossings. Disband ICE. Deify DACA. Deny no asylum claim. Table a marshal plan for Central America. Immigrants are Americans, only better and more inspiring. A message great for convincing illegals to get their future kids to be loyal democrats.

I am unsure what is more a rough sell in the general? Biden the gaff machine who pisses off his own base, or Kamala Harris, who rages as though permanently on the rag. Tulsi or Yang or generally better choices, but I'd pick Tulsi or Williamson over any of the others. Williamson mainly for the first ever wellness rave on inauguration and the free Tibetan Rock Salt lamps, at heart me and Crystal Mama are very similar people and Tulsi is Anti-War and Hindu and so has my backing implicitly. I kinda like Yang, but acknowledge he is ultimately just another bugman candidate; but a more honest and likable bugman.

Sanders is powerhouses of policy though, and I respect his gumption, even if I don't always agree. I have infinite respect for Sanders for standing tall and proud in his positions. Sanders is admirable and rightous.

[Endus]

The message one gets from this crop of Democrats is that we must drain and dry that Rio Grande, Level the land to ease the passage of Central America into North America. Let them come in their millions, no, in their billions. Decriminalize crossings. Disband ICE. Deify DACA. Deny no asylum claim. Table a marshal plan for Central America. Immigrants are Americans, only better and more inspiring. A message great for convincing illegals to get their future kids to be loyal democrats.

It's always easier to argue against your own overactive imagination than reality, but you'll always end up look as ridiculous as this when you do it in public.

Nothing you said is remotely true. It's all in your own head.

[Felya]

It's always easier to argue against your own overactive imagination than reality, but you'll always end up look as ridiculous as this when you do it in public.

Nothing you said is remotely true. It's all in your own head.

But... but... the guy that murderer 22 people last week, said it was true!