Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[kaelleria]

Emerson is currently an outlier and is dragging his approval up... His trendline hasn't been all that great.

Polls are also about 2 week lagging indicators of current events. How much will his polling drop when the Ukraine stuff gets factored in?

[Dontrike]

Republicans are back to trusting polls again? Cool.

Only when it confirms their own biases. The moment a poll goes against them suddenly it's back to "remember when they said Trump would lose?"

[omerome]

He is not a carbon copy of Obama, so no. Obama was also not subjected to the same amount of media destruction Trump has had to face. It doesn't matter however. Most people care about having a job and providing for their families. If enough feel like they are doing that during a election, then the sitting President has a better chance of staying in office.

Seriously?! Fox "News" for example, freaked out over Obama wearing a tan suit, liking spicy mustard, and doing a fist bump with his wife. Then the guy in the White House himself declared that Obama wasn't even a citizen and demanded a birth certificate. Are you kidding me?

The man is deranged and all of the "destruction" that is happening to him is self-inflicted. He tells a story one day then changes his mind and pretends like no one has a video camera. He calls the media, "fake news", when many times they are just using his own words against him. That is all on him. No one else.

People have always cared about having a job and providing for their families. I mean, that's part of why Obama's approval rating was much higher than this guy's.

[Kujako]

Seriously?! Fox "News" for example, freaked out over Obama wearing a tan suit, liking spicy mustard, and doing a fist bump with his wife. Then the guy in the White House himself declared that Obama wasn't even a citizen and demanded a birth certificate. Are you kidding me?

That was all Obamas fault! For not being a white guy... in fact, if Obama had chosen to be white, Trump would probably never have been elected, so everything Trump does is Obamas fault!

[ati87]

That is true. And time will tell how important these approvals are worth. I am thinking there has been a President who got reelected who was only at around 48% approval rating. Truman? Will have to look that up.....

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While not a indication exactly what will happen, polls can be a indication of trends. They can be misleading and have been on occasion. So take what you will from them.

And the trend shows that Trump is fucked.
Trump at this point should be ahead in the polls vs any opponent, especially since his opponent isn't known yet. Instead Trump is polling 2 points ahead in Texas.

Fact is Trump's numbers are bad, he won the last election with less then 1% of the votes in 3 key states.. In 2020 instead of expending the battleground maps Trump will need to campaign in red states like Texas.

[Ghostpanther]

Emerson is currently an outlier and is dragging his approval up... His trendline hasn't been all that great.

Polls are also about 2 week lagging indicators of current events. How much will his polling drop when the Ukraine stuff gets factored in?

Truman's approval rating was down below 40% about a year before he was reelected. But it rose to 50% just before the election. And he won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...y_S_Truman.png

[omerome]

That was all Obamas fault! For not being a white guy... in fact, if Obama had chosen to be white, Trump would probably never have been elected, so everything Trump does is Obamas fault!

Thanks Obama!

[Wyrt]

That was all Obamas fault! For not being a white guy... in fact, if Obama had chosen to be white, Trump would probably never have been elected, so everything Trump does is Obamas fault!

I'm sure if Obama had been white Trump never would have started the birther movement. So it's really Obama's fault the birther movement existed.

[some guy]

Only when it confirms their own biases. The moment a poll goes against them suddenly it's back to "remember when they said Trump would lose?"

Yup, bunch of fucking snowflakes who need their safe spaces.

[kaelleria]

Truman's approval rating was down below 40% about a year before he was reelected. But it rose to 50% just before the election. And he won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...y_S_Truman.png

Trump would have to defy his own history to rise to 50% approval rating... Trump has literally never been above 45% approval. Truman entered office at 87% approval rating.

[Belize]

Republicans are back to trusting polls again? Cool.

Until they drop down again, then they'll be FaEk NoOz.

[Breccia]

The average approval is 45.1 % now.

Nope. 43%. And the only reason 538 has them even that high, is Rasmussen keeps spamming polls and nobody else does. Look 2, 3, 4 weeks ago. Bunch of other poll sources, his numbers were much lower.

And that's an uptick, which recent events -- the UN China speech, sending troops to Saudi oil body shield duty, and yes, extorting a foreign country -- aren't going to continue.

Oh, and please stop the disingenuous "Obama was this low". This just happens to be the lowest point in Obama's tenure, ever. Saying Trump's highest point is the same as Obama's lowest point is disingenuous. You don't want to be disingenuous, do you?

[Ghostpanther]

Trump would have to defy his own history to rise to 50% approval rating... Trump has literally never been above 45% approval. Truman entered office at 87% approval rating.

His high was 45.7% average back in Feb of 2018. And Trump has already defied history. lol!

[Breccia]

His high was 45.7% average back in Feb of 2018.

Nope. 41.4% and still far lower than when he was inaugurated. Please post constructively.

[Paranoid Android]

His high was 45.7% average back in Feb of 2018. And Trump has already defied history. lol!

Oh wow! You really owned @kaelleria (sarcasm btw Kaelleria).

You are pretty sad if you think your brilliant point is . 7%. But hey, you don't have much to cheer these days, so if that 7/10th of a point rocks your boat, cheers.

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Nope. 41.4% and still far lower than when he was inaugurated. Please post constructively.

Let him have his 3/10th of a point. I feel that makes Ghostpanther happy and all he has.

[Felya]

His high was 45.7% average back in Feb of 2018. And Trump has already defied history. lol!

... by losing the popular vote by around 3 million, as you are pushing polls? Trump hasn’t had 50% approval, even on the day he was “voted” in. It’s pretty bizarre to celebrate Trump’s approval going up, when he hasn’t hit 50% and by the looks of it, never will. Especially considering that his defying history already, is being one of only 4 presidents, to not get a popular vote win. Showing his popularity in this context is bizarre...

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Let him have his 3/10th of a point. I feel that makes Ghostpanther happy and all he has.

It’s bizarre... Trump never hitting 50% approval is a good thing? How is that antiestablishment movement going, when the only thing Trump is doing, is defying the majority of Americans?

[Wyrt]

On the topic of approval numbers. The numbers that matter are the ones in the battleground states and last I checked those weren't looking so great for him.

No one should care if people in Wyoming view Trump favorably. It's people in Iowa or Pennsylvania or Florida that matter.

[Breccia]

On the topic of approval numbers. The numbers that matter are the ones in the battleground states and last I checked those weren't looking so great for him.

You're talking about this:



Barring a change, Trump has already lost Florida and Pennsylvania. He's at risk of losing Georgia and Texas. Texas.

[Thekri]

You're talking about this:

(Snip)
Barring a change, Trump has already lost Florida and Pennsylvania. He's at risk of losing Georgia and Texas. Texas.

Let's be honest though, Florida would vote 50/50 if the choices were cake or death.

Anyway, how did you guys let Ghostpanther lure you into talking poll numbers again? His response to betrayal of the office of the president, and active impeachment inquiries is talking poll numbers, and you let him.

[Breccia]

Anyway, how did you guys let Ghostpanther lure you into talking poll numbers again?

Oh, that's easy. Talking about Trump's low poll numbers is 100% on topic. He's just part of the conversation, by talking about Trump's low poll numbers. He's not trolling. He's actually being refreshingly honest, about how bad Trump's poll numbers are.

Speaking of which, Trump is now surrounded.

Until recently, his admin was focused on beating Biden. We're seeing the fallout of that, by the way. Now he has two other problems: Pelosi (and the impeachment situation) which he cannot win with poll numbers, and Warren.

The Hill interviewed more than a half-dozen current or former advisers to Trump, and about half viewed Warren as the most formidable nominee in a head-to-head match-up against Trump, while the other half described former Vice President Joe Biden as the tougher general election foe.

To many Trump World insiders, Warren increasingly looks like the candidate with the best shot at winning the nomination. The two most recent surveys of Iowa and New Hampshire show Warren edging Biden, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) fading into the pack.

The Trump allies who view Warren as the strongest general election Democrat described her as a “movement” candidate with crossover appeal between the left and the center.

They said Warren’s message fits the moment and view her potential candidacy as a wild card, believing that Trump would fare better in a rematch against an establishment candidate, such as Biden.

“She has a populist streak to match Trump that I think would make her tougher to beat than a lot of people realize,” said one prominent GOP consultant. “I think her ideology fits the moment, and that scares me as a Republican.”