Iowa Caucus 2020 - MegaThread

[starlord]

They thought that they rigged it enough to let Cheat squeak out a victory, but they forgot to account for the satellite caucuses, so now they gotta go back and rig it some more! Maybe they’ll “accidentally” change some Bernie votes to Michael Bennett votes this time!

since apparently everyone and everything is rigged against bernie maybe he should just run as an independent?

[Elegiac]

since apparently everyone and everything is rigged against bernie maybe he should just run as an independent?

dO yOU wAnT TrUmP tO wIN

- Bernie Bros who threaten to stay home if Bernie isn't the nominee.

[starlord]

dO yOU wAnT TrUmP tO wIN

- Bernie Bros who threaten to stay home if Bernie isn't the nominee.

i am 200% certain the broad appeal of his well thought out policies, leadership abilities, and inspiring personality will overcome any handicap of not having the corrupt corporate shill "D" by his name.

[cubby]

"MENTAL JYNX!"

You owe me an imaginary coke! ;P

Rofl - that was pretty interesting timing.

I'm glad I'm not getting raked over the coals because this happens to be Sanders. The polling changers are interesting.

[draynay]

I'm glad I'm not getting raked over the coals because this happens to be Sanders. The polling changers are interesting.

I think the 'bernie bros' hysteria is a little overwrought, at least on this forum.

[starlord]

Rofl - that was pretty interesting timing.

I'm glad I'm not getting raked over the coals because this happens to be Sanders. The polling changers are interesting.

i saw an article regarding swing voters that might be of interest to you;
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pol...-theory-108944

essentially it says that due to politics becoming more polarized in the past few years, the voting electorate has become much more volatile than in the past.

[Blade Wolf]

I think the 'bernie bros' hysteria is a little overwrought, at least on this forum.

Bernie Bros are an extreme minority but people treat them as if they are enough to influence the actual election.

[Elegiac]

Bernie Bros are an extreme minority but people treat them as if they are enough to influence the actual election.

The Tea Party was also an extreme minority.

[starlord]

Bernie Bros are an extreme minority but people treat them as if they are enough to influence the actual election.

well, they are. they affected the way the iowa caucus was run. and then have spent the entire time shrieking that every hiccup was designed to negatively affect bernie.

[Elegiac]

well, they are. they affected the way the iowa caucus was run. and then have spent the entire time shrieking that every hiccup was designed to negatively affect bernie.

They also got the DNC primary rules changed after 2016.

And have still complained about it every step of the way, to boot.

[cubby]

i saw an article regarding swing voters that might be of interest to you;
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pol...-theory-108944

essentially it says that due to politics becoming more polarized in the past few years, the voting electorate has become much more volatile than in the past.

Sure, it's an interesting opinion. At the end of the day we just won't know, because Polls are just statistical information. It's the change in all of them that we're finding really interesting. Every single state now has Sanders leading. Wherein many had Biden or others leading. That kind of a change is exceedingly odd, at least to some of us.

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I think the 'bernie bros' hysteria is a little overwrought, at least on this forum.

His fan base, even in here, in exceedingly disconcerting.

[PACOX]

Got to keep up the illusion that Buttman won and keep his momentum going into NH

I would not take the bet that he sees the same success in NH since there is no RCV.

[Dug]

I like how Blue No Matter Who™ types accept that Iowa is horrible optics for Democrats but simultaneously want everyone to just accept it lol

[Beazy]

The Tea Party was also an extreme minority.

Were they? They got like 5 or 6 tea party candidates elected and like 3 are still here. . . ones a fkn senator we cant get rid of. . . .

[Elegiac]

I like how Blue No Matter Who™ types accept that Iowa is horrible optics for Democrats but simultaneously want everyone to just accept it lol

Who are these people?

Cause last I recall the people you're bitching about all agree that the IDP heads need to resign and the caucuses abolished for future elections.

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Were they? They got like 5 or 6 tea party candidates elected and like 3 are still here. . . ones a fkn senator we cant get rid of. . . .

The actual number of candidates isn't relative to their impact on shifting the GOP's scope of discussion. And by shifting, I mean 'hijacking'.

Fifth columns tend to be vocal minorities by definition.

[starlord]

Sure, it's an interesting opinion. At the end of the day we just won't know, because Polls are just statistical information. It's the change in all of them that we're finding really interesting. Every single state now has Sanders leading. Wherein many had Biden or others leading. That kind of a change is exceedingly odd, at least to some of us.
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His fan base, even in here, in exceedingly disconcerting.

i suspect that maybe an outsized importance is being placed on the iowa results (which there is a tradition of.)

[mvaliz]

And lets be clear, Paul and Sanders both lost.

Lets be clearer, as I stated - Bernie was in a VERY close second... Ron Paul was a feking blip in the results. Nothing more...

[jakeic]

The funny thing, to reverse my own post, is I'm honestly kinda questioning the validity polls atm. :P

Every poll, up to now, has been showing Biden as #1, with Iowa him and bernie in a VERY close neck n' neck percent with Bernie in a slight lead. If he ended up #3 in Iowa I could've understood, but a distant 4th!? Something's really borked with the way polling is being conducted in this country ATM. >_<

I mean, we all know polling is skewed by companies - and most tend to buy the ones that best match their desired results... but to be off by THIS much in such a short amount of time? =/

Looking through the 538 stuff, clearly whatever they were doing with their predictions drastically overvalued Biden, I'm not sure if it's corrected now.

[mvaliz]

Were they? They got like 5 or 6 tea party candidates elected and like 3 are still here. . . ones a fkn senator we cant get rid of. . . .

As much as I don't like that guy - that's actually his point. Tea Party was also very small, and then Palin/Dump brought them to the limelight long enough to get them into a force in 2016.

You might want to watch the Frontline Documentary. One of the things they talked about was the immediate rise of the Tea Party in 2016 thanks to Sara Fukwit Palin.

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Looking through the 538 stuff, clearly whatever they were doing with their predictions drastically overvalued Biden, I'm not sure if it's corrected now.

538 didn't do anything. They're essentially a glorified aggregate site. All the polling data they're using comes from outside. News polls, newspaper polls, ect.

538 didn't change a thing with their algorithms - what changed is the national polling at this point. And chances are that happened by-and-large to the news that Biden is #4 in Iowa.

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Sure, it's an interesting opinion. At the end of the day we just won't know, because Polls are just statistical information. It's the change in all of them that we're finding really interesting. Every single state now has Sanders leading. Wherein many had Biden or others leading. That kind of a change is exceedingly odd, at least to some of us.

Going to send you a PM on this, as I don't want to derail this into something predictable. >_<

[jakeic]

538 didn't do anything. They're essentially a glorified aggregate site. All the polling data they're using comes from outside. News polls, newspaper polls, ect.

538 didn't change a thing with their algorithms - what changed is the national polling at this point. And chances are that happened by-and-large to the news that Biden is #4 in Iowa.

Except that isn't what we're talking about, 538 is building a model to predict the primary season. In this case, they are not simply reporting on polls or averages of polls, they are taking the polling numbers and applying whatever they think is required to forecast a winner. They clearly were overvaluing Biden, as for if they're trying to fix whatever caused that to happen, that is simply speculation. Technically, their initial prediction could be right, since Biden only won in about half of the simulations.