Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Deficineiron]

Government has fired up surveillance capability - everyone who was near one of the 433 confirmed cases with his cellphone has received a message telling them to go into 14 days quarantine.

folks are going to get an education on exactly how much data govt can extrapolate just from where your cell phone is in relation to other cell phones.

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Just a bit of info for you all to ponder. My son and his fiance went to Ireland (I know stupid) on Friday. They had a lay over in Paris and that night France was put at the top of the list of "don't go here" countries. Okay so they make it to Dublin and then go to some town northeast of there. They thought they were coming back this coming Saturday...wrong...the airline called them and said they were coming back last night. So they board the plane in Dublin...full capacity, full flight crew...and are told "When we land at JFK airport don't move, the cdc is going to come in and screen all of us." All well and good. Sure enough, they land, stay out on the tarmac and the cdc comes to them in their hazmat suits. Cdc doesn't ask one question, just takes everyones temperature and says "Carry on" and lets them all off. WTF? Seriously...that's a screening? So this shit is never going to stop unless we close all borders to every other country in the world until it's controlled. I know how this happened as he was messaging me as the whole thing unfolded...unbelievable. But he did call management of where he works and he was told self quarantine for 2 weeks...paid. C'mon Cdc.

the instruction manual just said to take temperature - didn't say what to do with high temperatures!

[Acidbaron]

As AcidBaron put it: So if a person isn't showing any signs like a fever, don't expect to get tested.

The US is making the same mistakes as the EU did, although at this point it is far too late for them also. My answer was more about being tested if you live there, not being tested properly when you come from another nation is again a mistake we made and the US will pay for that, sadly.

[Shadowferal]

Crowded bars and theme parks: Why won't some people practice social distancing during coronavirus outbreak?

But many people aren’t doing it – in fact, they’re doing the opposite.

Over the weekend, photos and videos flooded social media and cable news of large crowds gathering everywhere, from Disney World to popular brunch spots to workout classes. This has evoked a variety of reactions, from outraged, self-isolating individuals calling those people selfish, to supporters who have tweeted and commented that coronavirus won’t stop America.

“It’s bizarre, isn’t it?” said Cynthia Mohr, a professor of psychology at Portland State University and an associate editor at the Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology. She likened it to the well-known children’s tale, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

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The US is making the same mistakes as the EU did, although at this point it is far too late for them also. My answer was more about being tested if you live there, not being tested properly when you come from another nation is again a mistake we made and the US will pay for that, sadly.

Yeah...I'm pretty sure it was too late back in December.

[Deficineiron]

It definitely has not slowed down. I'm just correcting you when you say that the spreading of the infection isn't accelerating.

italian death toll daily (actually a moving average of that) would probably be close to a 3-4 average doubling time depending on what MA you used. it is a more robust stat, hopefully, than 'confirmed tests' which are subject too many more subjective criteria on how many/who can be tested.

[Acidbaron]

Just a bit of info for you all to ponder. My son and his fiance went to Ireland (I know stupid) on Friday. They had a lay over in Paris and that night France was put at the top of the list of "don't go here" countries. Okay so they make it to Dublin and then go to some town northeast of there. They thought they were coming back this coming Saturday...wrong...the airline called them and said they were coming back last night. So they board the plane in Dublin...full capacity, full flight crew...and are told "When we land at JFK airport don't move, the cdc is going to come in and screen all of us." All well and good. Sure enough, they land, stay out on the tarmac and the cdc comes to them in their hazmat suits. Cdc doesn't ask one question, just takes everyones temperature and says "Carry on" and lets them all off. WTF? Seriously...that's a screening? So this shit is never going to stop unless we close all borders to every other country in the world until it's controlled. I know how this happened as he was messaging me as the whole thing unfolded...unbelievable. But he did call management of where he works and he was told self quarantine for 2 weeks...paid. C'mon Cdc.

So long not every nation gets together and forms a plan that everyone keeps to closing borders the only option, although honestly it is far too late for that by now.

Bit of a crucial error considering how you can be infected for up to two weeks before you have any symptoms and fever is just one of many. They are just following instructions honestly, could also be a capacity error as they are no longer preventing the virus from entering the country as it's too late for that anyway but they are trying to prevent people who are soon to be critically ill to fall victim to it.

[Deficineiron]

0.5% CFR is extremely optimistic.

I think they intentionally removed a zero from that number.

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/heeding-c...170403554.html

Title: Heeding calls for action, Trump invokes Defense Production Act



Note that this only gives the federal government the ABILITY to help ramp up supplies.

Interesting side note:





So far everything is in the planning stages from what I can tell. No actual actions have happened on this front yet. Presumably the various companies are doing quite fine without government help. On the other hand there is this:

I would assume industrial planning has been in the works a while, and the DPA will, iirc, allow the executive branch to award contracts without the usual federal contracting/bidding laws applying (may be wrong there but I would assume that act does exactly that).

Ultimately companies need to tool up factories (which may require components in short supply) to make some of the ability to make what is needed. they may still be in the 'planning/procurement' stage which unfortunately has to be done.

[Ange]

It's interesting to see the difference in expert opinion and opinion by many posters here.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak

It worked out for systems like in Taiwan. They TRACKED EVERYONE down comming from outbreak zones and isolated them before any tests or symptoms. Closing borders and isolate every possible case works clearly if you have the laws and state organisations for that to do things like this in time without any political interference. The healthorganisation in TW used realtime phone tracking data, police and data from the border patrol to track, classify and isolate EVERY SUSPECT in 1 DAY.

Doing the same without any guidance leads to public official overwhelmed by the situation since the political orders change daily and they make mistakes and the whole restrictions are worthless, because infected are still creating new outbreaks that needs to be narrowed down again and again.

Does closing borders and isolotion work? It does clearly in some cases (Taiwan) and fails horribly in ohers (Italy) if done without any epidemic plans or organisations that can manage it.

[Shadowferal]

Well, if your factory workers are all out sick...then they need to hire those that have recovered.

[Deficineiron]

Italys death rate (8.33%) seems extremely high, China only has 3237 (4%), even Irans death ratio (6.54%) is lower too.

it is a mystery - and that virus followed the equation so nicely in china too. No one knows why!

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Spain and Germany have now passed Iran. The US has passed France and South Korea. France seems to have found a way to slow it down.

mass graves from iran satellite imagery make it easy for me to assume the iranians might have an error in their counting.

[Acidbaron]

It's interesting to see the difference in expert opinion and opinion by many posters here.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak

There have been cases i believe were people carried the virus and didn't show symptoms for weeks, up to 23 days even before it fully broke out in the carrier, on the other hand, quarantines may have little effect but it might aid your healthcare system.

Italy also waited too long and also didn't quarantine fully, they are doing like the UK are doing now. Keeping things open, not closing restaurants. So that "little benefit" might mean a big difference in the end. I also don't see why you can't do both. Why can't you tell people or even forbid them to travel and tell teach them how to prevent getting infected easily, how does one prevent the other? Or am i misreading something?


Side note regarding travel and borders, i just heard the Germany is going to close their own borders fully on monday, if not sooner.

[Deficineiron]

Oh boy, awaiting test results, but I’ve had a flu shot, so assuming flu test will come back negative. But my PCP asked me to self-quarantine, due to lack of tests, and I might get an x-ray... fun fun, hoping they will come in any minute with positive flu test, otherwise fuck. Headache, body ache, dizziness, elevated heart rate, 30+% higher than normal, cough , fever, and shortness of breath, and had a sore throat yesterday. Blood Oxygen at 93%

... and flu test is still not back yet, after 20min when they said it would take 10min...

Update:
No flu, but doctor thinks it might just be bronchitis, hopefully that is the case. So antibiotics for me.

please keep us updated. the virus is quite real and quite contagious, and many of us will get it eventually, or have already (and may not even know it, or only suspect).

[Acidbaron]

Didn't the UK backpeddle on this ''herd immunity'' bs, after research showed its risks? So far im aware only ''Nether''lands go for it. But like I said before, im going to nail Mark Rutte to the UN/EU/Den Hague for criminal offenses.. ie: Murderous intent, disregard for the wellbeing of people.

The dutch government really is not right in their head, i live on the border so basically all measures being taken here are going to be undone because the government over there is going to go for something absurd.
However it is worth noting that factories are closing down over there and the government is footing the bill for a large part. Honestly it is rather confusing what the government of Rutte is even trying to achieve here.

And yes the UK officially backed away from the idea BUT they are still not really closing things down they are "considering it" and not taking action at this point, what is for me saying they don't want it to spread but they are actually letting it spread. I mean do you expect anything else from a political party that doesn't care if buildings burn down with their citizens in it?

[Deficineiron]

The math isn't terribly hard to do, but the result is hard to believe unless you see the math done yourself. We've been saying the same thing here for a while now.



I mean, probably.

the thing is, italy death tolls are illustrating the principle in real-time daily. I think in 10 days (next weekend) they could be getting close to 2k/day. reports of undercounting in certain areas (nursing home fatalities) apply too.

then they don't drop - they simply grow more slowly, as I understand it. I believe this 'peak' term is being used misleadingly.

[Acidbaron]

the thing is, italy death tolls are illustrating the principle in real-time daily. I think in 10 days (next weekend) they could be getting close to 2k/day. reports of undercounting in certain areas (nursing home fatalities) apply too.

then they don't drop - they simply grow more slowly, as I understand it. I believe this 'peak' term is being used misleadingly.

Are people reporting that Italy is at its peak? Asking because what i am hearing from experts on shows here is that they "might be at their peak". And Italy is being used more as the horror scenario if people continue to disregard guidelines of social isolation and other measures.

[Deficineiron]

The normal behavior for virus mutations is the virus mutating into a weaker form after having a strong one. Suposely, if the virus keeps mutating as it seems, he will get weaker.


That's the one million question, we just don't know, no one knows.

I think currently the main target are the people inside the risk group, these people need to be isolated, for all other people the virus behaves just like a common cold.

i just don't see the selection pressure on this virus preferring milder strains. they may exist, but so faint as to be irrelevant.

furin enzyme cleavage is a huge advantage. long asymptomatic period, partially contagious, long disease progress before kills host, if it does - I don't see where it matters if the host dies after 3 weeks.

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Are people reporting that Italy is at its peak? Asking because what i am hearing from experts on shows here is that they "might be at their peak". And Italy is being used more as the horror scenario if people continue to disregard guidelines of social isolation and other measures.

yeah somehow the peak was supposed to be today, then it was teh 25th, now it is april 15. get those folks to even define what 'peak' is or what happens after the 'peak.'

background in math really does make understanding some of this simple, not that it makes it any better (it makes it worse!)

[Drutt]

Governments are doing a fuckin awful communication work ( sometimes I think even intentional to not create panic) almost everywhere.

You tell people 3.4% mortality rate and the retards at beach will think:" 96.6% chances of surviving. It's not gonna be me".

You should tell: "20% chances you need a hospital bed and there won't be one for you".
Retard:" Why ? I pay my insurance/taxes!!"
"Because you and all your retards friends got infected and there's no beds for everyone!!!"

I tell you. This is game changing communication policy.

There's a bunch of people on another board I frequent who still think the UK's original approach was the right one. They seem to think that you can successfully exile the "at risk" group from society and insulate them, and that none of the rest of the population will experience any issues. When presented with the notion that 20% of people will need to be hospitalized, they insist it's only the at risk groups that will be hospitalized and the others will be fine. According to them, the rest of the UK will be able to continue as usual, no problems.

It's mind numbing. I've given up trying to talk to them about it, there's no point talking to people who make up their own reality.

[Deficineiron]

There's a bunch of people on another board I frequent who still think the UK's original approach was the right one. They seem to think that you can successfully exile the "at risk" group from society and insulate them, and that none of the rest of the population will experience any issues. When presented with the notion that 20% of people will need to be hospitalized, they insist it's only the at risk groups that will be hospitalized and the others will be fine. According to them, the rest of the UK will be able to continue as usual, no problems.

It's mind numbing. I've given up trying to talk to them about it, there's no point talking to people who make up their own reality.

sounds like combination of general ignorance and severe normalcy bias on display.

[Grimbold21]

Looks like Portugal is skipping a few steps and going straight to declaring a state of emergency

[Acidbaron]

yeah somehow the peak was supposed to be today, then it was teh 25th, now it is april 15. get those folks to even define what 'peak' is or what happens after the 'peak.'

background in math really does make understanding some of this simple, not that it makes it any better (it makes it worse!)

Hmm okay, well yes people are estimating but it hasn't stopped climbing yet, not to mention flatten out.

[Rozz]

You can get a simple one that clips onto the toilet pretty easily, connecting to the water connection and some replace the toilet seat.

I mean, you can't get too many of them NOW, since a lot sold out, but still, it doesn't have to be a separate thing.

I saw those, but they'd still require some help to set up with the toilet I have at my apartment. Awkwardly spaced bathroom, old toilet, etc. The pains of life.