Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Shadowferal]

I think that we'll see a few hundred thousands dead worldwide (not counting China, India or the Subsaharan africa Countries)

That actually sounds a more likely projection...say by the end of summer.

[Thepersona]

That actually sounds a more likely projection...say by the end of summer.

By the end of summer we will most likely have trickling cases.

Also: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.20043299v1

I hope this puts the "if you're positive after full recovery, you're still infectious, " or the "you can be re infected" shenanigans to bed.

[Grapemask]

"useless" seems like a serious and hyperbolic stretch. considering:



Past viral studies of sars shows IT ALSO HELPS.

To say they're useless doesn't make much sense while we make a big fuss to make sure doctors are wearing them to stop the spread to patients... do you see the problem here between simultaneously saying they're useless, but make sure every single health care worker is wearing one even the surgical ones

There is no "probably true" it is true period and it likely is more than 1% if people did things properly.

Surgical masks block the majority of particulate under 0.5 the common masks blocked 95% or so of particulates under 0.5 microns, which isn't as good as the 99.99% n95, but far better than 0%.

The way it transmits is through droplets, droplets big enough to be caught by the typical surgical mask, and in the cases where the virus is not in a droplet, the mask can filter 95% or so of the virus in fine droplets, which... apparently aren't common outside of when you're dealing with a ventilator.

Also the masks stop your own droplets and remember a very very significant number of people have no symptoms and therefore can spread it by just plain old talking which when we talk tiny droplets of saliva come out which can travel about six feet. SO JUST TALKING PERIOD IS A PROBLEM and masks will stop asymptomatic people from getting sick.

It has a good chance of blocking covid itself and it can block the droplets which is how you'd typically get infected as they're larger than 2 microns.

There were even studies in the past looking at how when worn properly with perfect fit and thrown away consistently that they could be nearly as effective at preventing disease as an n95. I don't agree with that though... but there has been one study on it.

Cited study:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/



They need to do more studying of course but it is promising.

Just how we were told eating fat makes you fat for 60 years... if you don't studying something very in depth and then ignore other studies saying the opposite you tend to not come up with the greatest outcomes.

But the problem here is that these just aren't how people actually contract the virus. This was what virologists were trying to explain from day one. Absolutely, this stuff is in droplets. Absolutely people are flinging virus around left and right when they're sneezing and coughing and generally spraying fluid... but that's not how you're most likely to come in contact with it. It's generally pretty rare to get hit by that stuff. You're most likely to contract the virus by touching a common surface (or the person directly), and then put that hand in your eyes, ears, mouth, or, uh, somewhere else. That's why they spent so much time telling people to wash their hands and to not touch their face.

[PhaelixWW]

We have no idea if droplets in the eyes causes respiratory issues, we do know it does cause conjunctivitis.

Seriously?

WHO:

Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g., coughing or sneezing) and is therefore at risk of having his/her mucosae (mouth and nose) or conjunctiva (eyes) exposed to potentially infective respiratory droplets.

CDC:

Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.

AAO:

Coronavirus can spread through the eyes
Coronavirus may cause pink eye — but it’s rare

I guess you ignores:

Your bolded quote literally says not to infer anything from the amount of measured droplets, then you try to use it as evidence against me when I say basically the exact same thing. Priceless.

A person infected talking around those not infected without a mask, the non-infected would be safer as the mask protects against droplets from speech.

No, it really doesn't.

The mask themselves prevent 2.5 micron and up with about a 95% success rate below 0.5 microns. So wearing a mask in front of a person talking spewing 5 micron droplets would allow you to be protected.

Sorry, those are the N95 masks, not the surgical masks that we're discussing.

CDC Infographic:

N95 Respirator:
Filtration - Filters out at least 95% of airborne particles including large and small particles
Leakage - When properly fitted and donned, minimal leakage occurs around edges of the respirator when user inhales

Surgical Masks:
Filtration - Does NOT provide the wearer with a reliable level of protection from inhaling smaller airborne particles and is not considered respiratory protection
Leakage - Leakage occurs around the edge of the mask when user inhales

[breadisfunny]

so now it looks like my sister's SICK BOYFRIEND showed up unannounced from arizona to the apartment where she is residing WITH MY 76YR OLD GRANDMOTHER AND DOZENS OF OTHER OLD PEOPLE. (it's a old people apartment complex.) he CLAIMS he got tested for covid 19 and came back negative but all we have is his word. furthermore my sister then said "oh he got tested at the airport" which i know is a lie since they weren't testing for covid 19 or doing the monitoring thing when i took the plane back. so now that asshat is sitting in the complex potentially infecting dozens of people.

[Thepersona]

so now it looks like my sister's SICK BOYFRIEND showed up unannounced from arizona to the apartment where she is residing WITH MY 76YR OLD GRANDMOTHER AND DOZENS OF OTHER OLD PEOPLE. (it's a old people apartment complex.) he CLAIMS he got tested for covid 19 and came back negative but all we have is his word. furthermore my sister then said "oh he got tested at the airport" which i know is a lie since they weren't testing for covid 19 or doing the monitoring thing when i took the plane back. so now that asshat is sitting in the complex potentially infecting dozens of people.

Oh... Is there a stand your ground law in Arizona?

[breadisfunny]

Oh... Is there a stand your ground law in Arizona?

we live in wisconsin and no there isn't. the most we have is open carry. he came in from arizona just out of the blue.

[Thepersona]

Speaking of carriers and how widespread is the disease:

(April 1, 2020) -- San Miguel County, CO -- San Miguel County Public Health officials announced today that less than 1 percent of the COVID-19 blood tests done last Thursday and Friday were positive for antibodies and 97% of these groups tested negative.

Positive results on the first test indicate the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in the blood. This means that the individual has been exposed to COVID-19 and may or may not have ever experienced symptoms.

Another 2%, although technically considered negative, were “indeterminate,” showing a high-signal flash meaning they have an increased chance of converting to positive.

County Public Health received the results this morning. All of the individuals who tested positive or indeterminate were called by Public Health Officials today, advised of the results, and given direction.

Positive and borderline results are told to self-isolate and household members to quarantine for 14 days from the date of testing.

Dr. Sharon Grundy, County Medical Officer said, “These results should alert people that this virus is here. We need to take our public health directives seriously and shelter in place and practice physical distancing.”

Combining the 645 first responders, healthcare providers, and their families who were tested earlier with these new results, less than 2% are positive or indeterminate and 98% are negative.

Dr. Diana Koelliker, Deputy Medical Officer said, “The course of this pandemic is very much in the hands of our community. Your behavior will steer its trajectory.”

https://www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov/Ci...s.aspx?AID=511

[ErrandRunner]

I wonder what the REAL numbers are in China?

[TigTone]

so now it looks like my sister's SICK BOYFRIEND showed up unannounced from arizona to the apartment where she is residing WITH MY 76YR OLD GRANDMOTHER AND DOZENS OF OTHER OLD PEOPLE. (it's a old people apartment complex.) he CLAIMS he got tested for covid 19 and came back negative but all we have is his word. furthermore my sister then said "oh he got tested at the airport" which i know is a lie since they weren't testing for covid 19 or doing the monitoring thing when i took the plane back. so now that asshat is sitting in the complex potentially infecting dozens of people.

Report him to your local health authorities.

[cuafpr]

so this happened tonight it seems

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-a...CxK6PNCvP2lza4


Jesus people... are special

[EnclosedOne]

so this happened tonight it seems

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-a...CxK6PNCvP2lza4


Jesus people... are special

just wow...ya know i would totally believe someone doing this in a car but a train? A TRAIN?! just how far did he think he was going to get?! Damn fucking crazies...

[Not A Cat]

This is not a good time to be a hypochondriac. I have a mild fever and I'm losing my god damn mind. I went to the market today for like 10 minutes to pick up some groceries and now I'm ready to order a casket and send my friends my funeral playlist.

Just live blogging my hysteria don't mind me.

[Themius]

Seriously?

WHO:


CDC:


AAO:




Your bolded quote literally says not to infer anything from the amount of measured droplets, then you try to use it as evidence against me when I say basically the exact same thing. Priceless.



No, it really doesn't.



Sorry, those are the N95 masks, not the surgical masks that we're discussing.

CDC Infographic:

On what basis do you conclude that wearing a mask around a person talking who is asymptomatic provides no protection from getting the corona virus when the saliva droplets they release would be 5 ug or larger? please tell me what basis are you using for this?

Those are not n95 masks, and your source literally doesn't break it down to say what perfect of particles are blocked at each level they just say 95% of all airborne both large and small. n95 mask block 98-99.9+% of particles below certain thresholds. So the CDC saying 95% doesn't tell you THE SIZE YOU CAN EXPECT TO BE BLOCKED.

Results showed that the efficiencies measured by the NIOSH NaCl method for "N95 FFRs" were from 98.15-99.68% compared to 99.74-99.99% for PFE, 99.62-99.9% for BFE, and 99.8-99.9% for VFE methods

Surgical mask come in four different distinctions and below certain threshold depending on the rating they block only 85%( poor fit) to about 95% (really good fit) of particles in the 0.5 and below range.

What are you not understanding? A simple graphic that doesn't break this down into specific microns and percentages and takes into account THE SEVERAL GRADES OF FACE MASKS is a fucking shitty source to try to use.

The statement "does not provide the wear reliable level of protection from inhaling smaller airborne particles" is a crock of fucking bullshit

BECAUSE THEY DO NOT DEFINE WHAT THE FUCK THEY MEAN BY IT Are the smaller airborne particles less than 2.5 microns? Are they 2 microns? Are they 0.5 microns? It is important to know what the fucking size is because OUTSIDE OF VENTILATIONS YOU ARE UNLIKELY TO COME INTO CONTACT WITH SOMEONE EXPELLING AEROSOLS WITH SUCH SMALL MICRONS The average cough is 63 microns, the average sneeze is 10-100 microns. THOSE WILL BE FILTED OUT

You can buy a fucking dust mask with the pm2.5 filters which filter 2.5 microns and up and you'd be protected (and also protect others) from 2.5 microns and up for sure.

Below 2.5 microns is when we start falling into the 80-95% depending on how the fit is.

I mean what the fuck are you not understanding? The CDC FUCKED UP AND IS NOW CONSIDERING THAT THEY SHOULD SAY EVERYONE SHOULD WEAR MASKS when out.

So those same suggestions your posting may very well change.

As they already have in western countries that initially rejected masks

We have fucking studies on this, we know about this with the flu, we know it helps we know this.

Why do doctors wear masks to protect themselves from the flu when the flu is 0.12 microns? Why do they wear surgical masks? You know the highly rated but not n95 respirator that block 95% below 0.5 instead of 98-99.9%+ like the n95 masks do. You know the 5 layer surgical masks doctors have worn for years to protect from the flu the same masks the CDC guidelines have said do help in preventing the spread of the flu. A virus that is 0.12 microns

COVID19 IS 0.125 MICRONS IT IS SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN THE TYPICAL FLU.

The typical flu that the CDC recommends masks for.


So explain to me now this logic.

Surgical masks have been shown to help protect and slow the spread of influenza virus which measures 0.12microns

But

Surgical masks shown to protect against viruses 0.12 microns can't protect or slow down the spread of viruses 0.125 microns

THAT IS NOT LOGICAL

A surgical mask or fit-tested respirator should be worn by healthcare personnel who are within 6 feet of a suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza patient

CDC guidelines when delaying with 0.12 micron virus. The reason against mask they say is because 1 day prior people don't have symptoms... which but after they should wear masks.

There are further studies on influenza and spread and masks that show they do help.

And no, you cannot say I can't quote the flu because the flu IS LITERALLY SMALLER THAN COVID19 and is more likely to penetrate masks than covid19 is.

[Poopymonster]

This is the third time I read about some american trying to attack / blow up a hospital over the past month...

Do americans have some special hatred against hospitals? Or is this some misplaced anger because they can't afford healthcare?

We love our explosions. It's like a gun but BOOMier.

[breadisfunny]

Report him to your local health authorities.

i plan on calling my grandma tomorrow morning and seeing whats going on and go from there. this is absurd and negligent. don't care if my mom throws me out of the house at this point.

[Corvus]

Australia has now passed 5000 cases with 24 dead but there is a definite flattening of the curve going on. We have dropped from 25-30% daily increases to sub 10%. Still a long way to go though.

And the latest in the truly staggering amount of money the government is throwing at this, it is now saying that childcare will be free to the children of all essential workers, and childcare is very expensive here.

[hellhamster]

Iran is turning into a real shit show. People dying to bootleg liquor thinking it cures it because they have no trust in thier government and alcohol is banned so they have to go to dodgy sources even if it did help which it doesn't unless you're using the alcohol to clean. This whole situation really highlights how important having trust in your government is as people do crazy things in fear and misinformation

Albert Camus, an Algerian-French philosopher of the past century who wrote the Nobel Prize winning book "The Plague", (which I think is a mandatory read) wrote that the only countermeasure to an epidemic is the trust between state and population that they will do their jobs.

He was right.

- - - Updated - - -

I got sent home from work by the way, I noticed coughing, slimy throat and a headache, which is what I've been getting all my life prior to a flu. I'm already swimming in vitamin C, zinc and paracetamol while also overdosing on honey tea. My temperature is relatively low for now, but I'm monitoring everything, especially lung function.

Any tips from the people who were in a similar situation? Just a note that I've already had a mild case of the flu in January, so getting it again 3 months later is suspicious.

[Mayhem]

Nah, I would gander 90% of the population of the united states has a density just as great as EU? its all that open space in the middle where no one wants to live that gives us the impression of a country that is very spread out.

Half our population lives in 250 counties and they are not very large counties.
https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/p...to-perspective

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/u...ean-commission

This might help to get an idea about how densely populated continents are.

[jonnysensible]

so this happened tonight it seems

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-a...CxK6PNCvP2lza4


Jesus people... are special

He seems like a QAnon guy.