Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Thepersona]

I expect a GRADUAL easing of the measures and a slow reboot of the economy after 2 months. This is basically what China did / does in Wuhan, yes.
The effects will linger for 5+ years, make no mistake.

In the best case scenario, we as a world will start the slow rebooting in late may-early june. For that to happen we need
A) An effective treatment (in the works)
B) Massive antibody testing (being rolled out)
C) Follow the social distancing guidelines.

[Draco-Onis]

Lol, your bias is showing, Isnt Brazil still in "Just be a man" mode in fighting this?
Not saying the US is crushing it but, come on.

Actually the worse one is Belarus where the president told people to just go to a sauna and drink vodka if they get sick. The US response is below Italy's I would say we're not the worse but we are doing pretty awful.

[Forogil]

However everything you're arguing about is after the fact we knew more about it. It wasn't established asymptomatic spreading was a thing because that's very rare. Nor was it established that it could sit in the air for 3 hours or survive on steel for 9 days until way later. Remember we still know very little even now about this virus. Hindsight is great and all but that's however cause we know more.

Exactly - but my point is that it seems Taiwan is just using this to score political points, and not only didn't they know it was this severe - they didn't even suspect it.

[Acidbaron]

WTF?
First I've heard of it.

Because you are not stuck in a certain ideological bubble fed by news outlets like Fox news. Trumps inauguration speech created this mindset that the world no longer has to depend on the US for everything. People like Trunksee who get their news and information from a very narrow scope don't understand that the US global power structure and there for its economic position is heavily dependent on its allies. There for even american diplomats and industry representatives have been very displeased with the current administration and their "wars" on trade and it simply does not work for anyone involved.

[Thepersona]

The outbreak isn't over. Lets talk again about the %age that got infected in 1-3 years.
BTW: 80% of the cases are close to asymptomatic, so we will never see the actual # contracted this virus.
We'll mostly see the 20% that needed treatment and thus got registered.

2 things. We still dont know the IFR of this. It may (and probably will) be much lower than the CFR.
Also, the 80% that's being touted is of mild cases. Mild, in the context of the disease is like a bad flu, where you cough your lungs out

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Actually the worse one is Belarus where the president told people to just go to a sauna and drink vodka if they get sick. The US response is below Italy's I would say we're not the worse but we are doing pretty awful.

Below italy and spain. On par (or a little bit below) UK. Above Brazil?

[Endus]

Lol, your bias is showing, Isnt Brazil still in "Just be a man" mode in fighting this?
Not saying the US is crushing it but, come on.

I work off data.

For example, here's a tracker of mortality due to COVID-19, by country; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...OR+ESP+GBR+USA

That link should include Brazil, if I'm reading the url properly (I added it myself, but sometimes that doesn't carry over through links). Brazil isn't even comparable to the USA, in this scale.

Edit: I picked the "three day rolling average" graph solely because that'll help mitigate daily random variance, and smooth out the curves somewhat. Feel free to use another option; that's largely an aesthetic choice.

No its the lack of money and the stress from needing to pay the bills that people have that will make them break.

So, crumbling and insufficient social support systems are the problem, then.

Why didn't you start with that position?

Im talking about this from the US, you know the country where they carry most of the western worlds economy. Its on the US s back that the world economy rides.

This is just pure jingoistic masturbation. Stop Louis CKing people with your nationalist bullshit, thanks.

[Acidbaron]

The initial peak will be much dampened in 2 months, though. Successive peaks will be much smaller.

That's the whole point, which you seem to miss.



Bullshit. If you think Italy's (or anybody else's) numbers wouldn't be so much massively worse without having done the lockdown, you're sadly mistaken.

I think what a lot of people who are of his mindset are not understanding correctly is that it takes a good two weeks for measures of a lockdown when followed correctly to have an impact. Which is why the current US federal government and a president who is backed up by controversial media outlets spreading misinformation or telling people not to do it or it all being just voluntary won't help.

I mean they will prove their point in saying that the lockdown is not doing much because they aren't committed to getting it done right.

[Granyala]

In the best case scenario, we as a world will start the slow rebooting in late may-early june. For that to happen we need
A) An effective treatment (in the works)
B) Massive antibody testing
C) Follow the social distancing guidelines.

As I said GRADUAL easing of the measure. People really need to stop thinking binary.
A & B are unrealistic this early.

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So, crumbling and insufficient social support systems are the problem, then.
Why didn't you start with that position?

Because most Americans don't seem to want such support systems because "muh taxes" and (for the more radical ones) "damn Commies!".

[Thepersona]

As I said GRADUAL easing of the measure. People really need to stop thinking binary.
A & B are unrealistic this early.

A and B are being either under clinical trials or being rolled out at this very moment.
Dont underestimate human ingenuity, during desperate times.

[Forogil]

I work off data.

For example, here's a tracker of mortality due to COVID-19, by country; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...OR+ESP+GBR+USA

Current number of deaths on a linear scale is a bad metric for seeing how well a country handles it, as the number of current deaths also depends on how quickly it got started (depending on travel patterns and luck), whether the climate influences the spread, how densely people live, the demographics of the country, and whether the deaths are actually recorded, and a linear scale is bad for an exponential growth.

The graph makes it seems as if Brazil seem to have stabilized in number of deaths - but with 60 daily deaths one would expect a variance of +/-8 indicating that it may as well be luck.

[Tuor]

A & B are unrealistic this early.

B it's already happening
Google translated
https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/cov...idade_n1218375

The director-general of Health, Graça Freitas, announced this Saturday that Portuguese researchers will start to do immunity tests to find out which fraction of the population has acquired immunity to the new coronavirus. The UK and Germany have also announced that they will go ahead with these tests.
"Yes, Portugal is going to do serological studies to find out what proportion of its population has acquired immunity to this virus", announced Graça Freitas at this Saturday's press conference.

These immunity tests are used to see how many people have become immune after being infected with SARS-CoV-2. That is, when developing tests that detect the antibodies that form from the infection, it is possible to find out who is immune and cannot transmit the virus.

In this way, the tests allow to detect the group of people who can be free of the imposed restrictions and return to their routine and work, helping the country to return to normality.

Graça Freitas announced that the Ricardo Jorge Institute, in collaboration with academic scientists and DGS, will enter a pilot phase with other countries. The Director-General of Health, however, stressed that it is still trying to understand the ideal time for these tests, explaining that perhaps it is still early given that most Portuguese people are still in the recovery phase:

"Immunity is something that takes time to set in, that is, between the date of infection and the date when our body starts producing visible antibodies for a long time that we have to wait. It seems like a long time ago, but the disease in Portugal started about a month ago ".

"We will have to understand what is the ideal time to do the test, because if it is too early, there may still be no antibodies and, therefore, we have to find the ideal date here", explained Graça Freitas, stressing that the methodology and the date on which the studies will be carried out "are now being considered by the international scientific community".

The Director-General of Health added that the studies will probably have to be repeated in order to understand the duration of immunity: "It is not enough to test once, it is necessary to know if this immunity is lasting or not. The history of this virus is very short, we have to wait for time to pass before we know more ". ### 1218499 ###
Germany and the United Kingdom with “immunity certificates”
The UK and Germany have also announced that they will study people who have acquired immunity to the new coronavirus.

As the British health secretary, Matt Hancock, explained this week, the goal is to distribute “certificates of immunity” to those who have already contracted the virus and are now immune in order to allow them to return to “normal life”.

"People who have been infected and received antibodies and, in turn, immunity, can return to their normal lives," said Hancock.

The UK has already ordered millions of immunity tests, however, so far, they have proved ineffective and their use has not yet been approved by the government. The country expects further testing to be reliable.

In Germany, for their part, they are planning a study that will involve more than 100,000 immunity tests.

“Those who are immune can receive a kind of vaccination pass that could, for example, exempt them from restrictions on their activity”, explains Gerard Krause, responsible for the study and leader of the epidemiology section of the Helmholtz Infection Research Center , The Guardian.

Despite these initiatives, the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 in the humanitarian system is not yet fully known. So far, there are still no certainty about the length of time that antibodies remain in the human body, which means that the validity of these “immunity certificates” is still unknown.

[Forogil]

As I said GRADUAL easing of the measure. People really need to stop thinking binary.
A & B are unrealistic this early.

I would that A is unlikely, but B seems realistic, as they already exists commercially for a few dollars per tests, and making anti-body tests seem like well-tried technology.

[Svifnymr]

I don't believe that they will be called in, if the plan is to call them in at a later date they would now be getting training or a refreshment course to aid during the epidemic.

The ER doctors and staff will be, the specialized types might not be. They get paid extra for their specialization, so that would be a cost measure to have them do other stuff, if they're even qualified to do it, so that fits what you're saying, but it's not the majority of the discussion.

This might as a surprise to you but i actually read what i link.

The full quote you are missing from what you are quoting.

I mean, I quoted the part that was important, the doctor's opinion is that they don't need to do it NOW since they'll be needed at some point? Doesn't really matter.

Also i recommend you to actually read the whole article, instead of browsing over it shortly in defence of something or someone who does not need or deserve it.

I did read the article, and did not accuse you of not reading. Your conclusion is that money grubbers are endangering lives for profit, but the doctors complaints aren't about the risk...

"“It was worded in a way to make it sound like we weren’t affected by this, but by cutting our hours we are,” said an ER clinician who works for Alteon and has had hours reduced in a hospital with coronavirus patients. (The clinician, like others interviewed by ProPublica, spoke on the condition of anonymity because company policy prohibits their speaking publicly.) “When they’re saying clinician pay is not affected, it certainly is. That was a straight lie.”

Doctors are bitching that they're getting their total pay cut because they're working less hours when there's less work. You're siding with them for some reason?

TeamHealth said it has reduced hours in some markets but is maintaining staffing above current demand in anticipation of a future surge of COVID-19 patients. While the company is asking anesthesiologists to take furloughs that may be mandatory if there aren’t enough volunteers, TeamHealth said it’s also looking for ways for anesthesiologists to use their skills to help out in emergency rooms or intensive care units. Blackstone declined to comment."

How do you view this? The company has reduced hours, but the hours are still over the actual demand anyway because they want to be ready, but that's bad to you?

That last highlighted part reinforces what i said before, so good on you for calling medical staff lazy and simply standing around cards when they are on their own time and dime going back in to help, so much for nothing to do right?

I didn't say that, you didn't read that, you're just interjecting your emotions into a pretty straightforward discussion. If a hospital worker is going to work 90 hours a week a month from now, is it unfair to cut them from 40 to 20 now when there's no work to be done? Is that a benefit? Or should you pay them the 40 hours now, and then pay them extra when it's busier? I'm curious how you think it SHOULD work?

I will gladly be proven wrong but i doubt i will, for simple fact putting financial interest of the group before those of workers or healthcare in general has been the opus operandi for these companies for at least a decade.

Using an anesthesiologist as an example, they make triple what an ER doctor makes. While they are trained as a doctor, they cannot perform all the specific tasks that are usual for an ER doctor, any more than an ER doctor can perform all the tasks they would normally do in their specialized role. If there is no use for an anesthesiologist, so you're retasking them to assist ER doctors that WILL be in high demand, do you pay the ER doctors triple, or lower the Anesthesiologist to 1/3 rate or lower as he cannot perform the full task range?

ps: I read what i link.

You can keep saying it, but it does not refute that you're injecting emotion into the topic that is not needed.

The ER doctors WILL be need, but are not currently. In fact, right now in most places they are doing LESS work than normally. Do you reassign the assets now, or just ignore the situation to avoid the perception of being a meanie that loves money?

[PhaelixWW]

I work off data.

For example, here's a tracker of mortality due to COVID-19, by country; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...OR+ESP+GBR+USA

That link should include Brazil, if I'm reading the url properly (I added it myself, but sometimes that doesn't carry over through links). Brazil isn't even comparable to the USA, in this scale.

And that's precisely why you should look at logarithmic graphs instead of linear graphs.



A later start to an exponential curve is hugely meaningful.

[Thepersona]

I would that A is unlikely, but B seems realistic, as they already exists commercially for a few dollars per tests, and making anti-body tests seem like well-tried technology.

Even A is within the realm of possibilities, as there're a dozen potential treatments being trialed at this very moment. We need one. And we need it to be just moderately useful, as reducing hospital care by even 20% would be huge.

[PhaelixWW]

We still dont know the IFR of this. It may (and probably will) be much lower than the CFR.

It quite literally has to be, by definition.

[Granyala]

B it's already happening
Google translated
https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/cov...idade_n1218375

Interesting, thanks!

[Thepersona]

It quite literally has to be, by definition.

Yeah i know. But what i was trying to mean is that IFR could be an order of magnitude smaller than CFR. That's why we need antibody testing.
We need data. We dont have said data.

[Svifnymr]

I think what a lot of people who are of his mindset are not understanding correctly is that it takes a good two weeks for measures of a lockdown when followed correctly to have an impact. Which is why the current US federal government and a president who is backed up by controversial media outlets spreading misinformation or telling people not to do it or it all being just voluntary won't help.

I mean they will prove their point in saying that the lockdown is not doing much because they aren't committed to getting it done right.

I think my main problem with the tracking of the outbreak is this idea that we're 2 weeks into anything. Started in January, we're now in April. Social distancing has been since March, with an extension through the end of April and probably after that. Likewise, deaths due to COVID are posted, but comparisons are being made in a vacuum. Normal death rate vs current death rate vs COVID death rates would be interesting to see. Of course, at this point politics are wrapped up in anything that is said, so sides are being drawn and information is being filtered through bias all around.

[Trunksee]

Well just announced my state is now doing the 15 minute test in conjunction with CVS. This will be a big change at how fast RIs numbers go up. Georgia is doing the same thing. Time to buy CVS stock.