Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[stevenho]

Germany is only reporting deaths as corona if the person has been tested positive AND dies of pneumonia.

Yep.
That's why comparing Sweden to any other single country is premature. We will know for sure in a year or two, but so far IMO nothing extraordinary is happening there, which is interesting.

[Puupi]

Yep.
That's why comparing Sweden to any other single country is premature. We will know for sure in a year or two, but so far IMO nothing extraordinary is happening there, which is interesting.

You can look at multiple numbers, not only deaths. Both the deaths and patients in critical care are vastly higher than in other Nordic countries.

Sweden has 4 times more patients in critical care than all other Nordic countries COMBINED.

[Forogil]

Apparently, "at the earliest" is a phrase you both simply refuse to understand or acknowledge. I didn't say "at the latest".

A vaccine will to the best of my knowledge be available at the earliest next year (for actual vaccinations). August is long before that.

So, I'm sorry that you still don't understand your government's plan and/or that your government is lying to you.

I'm fully aware that WHO did originally estimate the vaccine will be available at the earliest in July. But that is July 2021.

[stevenho]

You can look at multiple numbers, not only deaths. Both the deaths and patients in critical care are vastly higher than in other Nordic countries.

Sweden has 4 times more patients in critical care than all other Nordic countries COMBINED.

Sweden also has better stats that some EU countries with strict lockdowns.
So like I said - interesting.

[I Push Buttons]

Sweden also has better stats that some EU countries with strict lockdowns.
So like I said - interesting.

The only stat they have which is 'better' is the number of confirmed cases, and its only 'better' because they hardly test anyone unless they get admitted to a hospital.

[PhaelixWW]

Germany is only reporting deaths as corona if the person has been tested positive AND dies of pneumonia.

That's also why the IFR estimate based on the small German study a page ago is fairly useless.

[Benggaul]

Idiot conspiracy theorists in the Netherlands are setting cell towers on fire because they think 5G is spreading COVID19.

Google-translated article for non-Dutch readers

Because of this the emergency service number (112) is unreachable in several areas. Apparently something similar is happening in the UK.

[Forogil]

Are you confusing this with his travel ban to african countries? Got a source people were mad about china travel restrictions?

Could also be a confusion with the reaction to the European travel restrictions.

People were upset about how the European travel restrictions were done (without bothering to tell the EU), the original silliness of excluding the UK, and that Trump said it included goods, and then tweeted that goods were excluded.

Basically a complete mess.

In contrast S. Korea have only blocked travelers from Wuhan/Hubei; and instead tested and quarantined all travelers.

[tromage2]

Idiot conspiracy theorists in the Netherlands are setting cell towers on fire because they think 5G is spreading COVID19.

Google-translated article for non-Dutch readers

Because of this the emergency service number (112) is unreachable in several areas. Apparently something similar is happening in the UK.

Its not only in the Netherlands, all over the world people thought they would be out of toilet paper today.
The world has gone crazy and thats it.

[Deathknightish]

The only stat they have which is 'better' is the number of confirmed cases, and its only 'better' because they hardly test anyone unless they get admitted to a hospital.

What do you mean? Sweden is below even Denmark and Norway in cases per million inhabitants. They are also below countries like Spain in that regard. And the UK, and the US and France.

If we take deaths per million it's above the U.S but below countries like UK, Netherlands, France, Italy, Belgium and Spain.

Sweden is far above Denmark and Norway with serious cases though, but that can have several explanations, such as elder care comes not being as infected in those countries are they are here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[stevenho]

This whole thing is a nightmare in our society where statistical manipulation is a huge problem. There’s not a single cross country stat that is remotely useful given that every country is a bit different, and you can literally find a way to make any country seem better or worse than any other.

Sweden has more deaths but fewer cases... choose the stat that fits your argument and use it as a weapon.

Agree. That's why I'm not drawing any conclusions just yet, merely observing.
I'm waiting for the collapse of their healthcare and mass deaths resulting from their approach but so far nothing like that has been happening.

[Puupi]

What do you mean? Sweden is below even Denmark and Norway in cases per million inhabitants. They are also below countries like Spain in that regard. And the UK, and the US and France.

If we take deaths per million it's above the U.S but below countries like UK, Netherlands, France, Italy, Belgium and Spain.

Sweden is far above Denmark and Norway with serious cases though, but that can have several explanations, such as elder care comes not being as infected in those countries are they are here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Cases are fucking pointless. You are not testing as widely as others.

[foyejil]

I'm a little bit curious how can in China in Wuhan and nearest areas around Wuhan when lives around 20 million peoples and more they have only 4000 deaths and near 100 000 infected? there is some news that they don't want to share with us. In some newspapers, the crematoriums were working in Vuhan 24/7 with a capacity of burning 1000 bodies per day. 7 days *7000 dead bodies = 7000, in Wuhan, I read that has 5 crematoriums that mean 5 * 7000 = 45000 dead peoples. Someone is laying the China government or the mediums.

[Granyala]

That's also why the IFR estimate based on the small German study a page ago is fairly useless.

So how would you define a COVID-19 death?

If s/o has a heart attack and dies while infected, should we count it as a death caused by SARS-CoV-2, even though the two maybe completely unrelated?

[Orange Joe]

Could also be a confusion with the reaction to the European travel restrictions.

People were upset about how the European travel restrictions were done (without bothering to tell the EU), the original silliness of excluding the UK, and that Trump said it included goods, and then tweeted that goods were excluded.

Basically a complete mess.

In contrast S. Korea have only blocked travelers from Wuhan/Hubei; and instead tested and quarantined all travelers.

It's also pretty amusing that @tromage2 didn't even bother to refute that he was wrong.

[zealo]

What do you mean? Sweden is below even Denmark and Norway in cases per million inhabitants. They are also below countries like Spain in that regard. And the UK, and the US and France.

If we take deaths per million it's above the U.S but below countries like UK, Netherlands, France, Italy, Belgium and Spain.

Sweden is far above Denmark and Norway with serious cases though, but that can have several explanations, such as elder care comes not being as infected in those countries are they are here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Cases isn't a particularily useful metric when testing is limited in scale. The numbers to pay attention to are the number in ICUs, as well as deaths.

[Puupi]

So how would you define a COVID-19 death?

If s/o has a heart attack and dies while infected, should we count it as a death caused by SARS-CoV-2, even though the two maybe completely unrelated?

Yes we should. It's never completely unrelated because covid19 weakens you overall a lot so it's contributing to the cause of death. Without the infection the death COULD have been avoided, and that's all that matters.

[Forogil]

You can look at multiple numbers, not only deaths. Both the deaths and patients in critical care are vastly higher than in other Nordic countries.

Sweden has 4 times more patients in critical care than all other Nordic countries COMBINED.

Currently, but that is likely to change a bit the coming months.

As previously stated Denmark will partially lift their restrictions, since https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelse...tus-6-uge.ashx shows that the virus is more widespread and less lethal than previously estimated. (Norway and Finland are different, and they might manage to eradicate the virus instead, we will see.)

That report also indicates that IHME have incorrect data.
Denmark currently have 113 ICU patients with Covid-19 https://www.sst.dk/da/Viden/Smitsomm...rvaagningsdata,
IHME projections are based on a maximum of 92 ICU beds; https://covid19.healthdata.org/denmark
That seems odd, and the report states that Denmark have 433 permanent ICU beds (some will be used by non-Covid-19 patients, but assumedly Denmark also have non-permanent ones.)

[stevenho]

We should ditch infected or dead as a metric and instead start using patients in need of intensive care

Per capita. Assuming all of them are tested. That would be actually useful, everything else is open to interpertation.

[PhaelixWW]

consider first clade I mentioned; which caused some cases in NY.

It seems it likely originated in Italy (my 2nd guess), neither the US nor France.
The reason is that the earliest case in that clade is Brazilian case (Brazil/SPBR-01/2020) that had an exposure history in Italy (and going up a bit more a Walesian case with a common ancestor also had an exposure history in Italy). (Only a few cases have such notes).
Did it then spread directly to the US, and then back to Europe, or did it spread multiple times to the US from different European countries? I don't know.

This is nonsense.

First, the Brazilian case is a dead end. It's also not the earliest case; there's one directly before it, from Italy. But they both constitute a dead end.

Look, the reason that Italy is not the source of this is that there are very few cases on that entire clade from Italy. Likewise, the reason they're fairly certain it came through (and mutated in) Belgium is that there are plenty of Belgian cases throughout all the sub-clades. That almost exclusively happens because the mutation occurred in Belgium before spreading to other places. That's why they have a confidence of 97%+ on those clades.

Is it technically possible that what you're suggesting is the case? Yes, but the odds are terribly low. Sure, I think we can both agree that it would be better with more information, but I think there's enough there to go on.

I'm saying that it seems to have spread back and forth between France and the US; or multiple infections crossing the Atlantic.

Highly doubtful.

One side of the parent branch is almost exclusively in France. Couple that with the fact that there are French cases all up and down the whole clade, and the fact that they were identified earlier, all suggest that this mutation branch originated in France before coming to the US.

I agree that the majority of strains in NY seems to have originated in France. I don't know how representative these strains are of the actual ones, since the virus seems to mutate between each person and there are certainly a lot more cases.

Sure, but even though each virus is different, you can tell a lot about the history and travel of the virus by its shared mutation with others. Again, seeing more data points doesn't somehow invalidate those ones.