Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Jastall]

While the COV-19 virus is to be taken serous and is not done yet with it's dirty work, for those who think it is the worse the US had experienced with the flu apart from the 1918 Spanish Flu, there is the 1957 Asian flu in the US, which killed more than 115,000 people. And this was when the US population was considerably smaller than it is now...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

And the Hong Kong flu in 1968 which killed about 100,000 in the US......https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

Not sure, but I may have had that damn Hong Kong flu when I was in the Army. Thought I was going to die. Spent about a week in a Army hospital with105 F body temp. part of that stay. They stripped me naked and gave me cold baths in a effort to lower it.

Now compare the measures taken in the US against these diseases to the extraordinary ones being taken now, as well as the vastly improved medical knowledge, logistics and communication capabilities we have today. Consider also the fact that COVID might very well not be even close to done yet.

There's no reason to try and even slightly downplay this shit. The virus is to be taken seriously, end of.

[PhaelixWW]

Sadly, it seems the only thing to create that would be a vaccine. Until we get more conclusive data on if you're immune after catching it.

Problem then becomes, if you're immune, for how long? If not, then its a far more dire situation than previously thought.

"If" you become immune is not a question. You will be immune immediately after recovering. But "for how long" is definitely a valid question.

But even if we don't ever develop a vaccine, we'll still eventually achieve herd immunity. We'll just then go into a bad seasonal cycle where a large percentage of the population will be succeptable to reinfection each year.

The body needs time to heal and recover. Just getting over catching a sickness and then getting reinfected isn't enough time. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it would make the mortality rate more than double or even triple.

Subsequent infections probably wouldn't be as bad, as a partial antibody load is a better starting point than no antibodies at all. And ultimately, the mortality rate would go down because any even older people would have a better chance of recovering due to a prior infection.

[Omega10]

I'm seriously feeling bad for most Americans.
No matter how bad i want to troll them this is super sad and i won't do it.
No one deserves to be ruled by such a shit.

No matter how hard i try i can't think of a worst piece of retarded shit becoming a president of a 1st world country.

Let's hope fellow Americans display better judgemental skills next time

Thank you for not trolling us above and beyond what we are doing to ourselves. On a practical note, the best way to troll the US these days is to just completely and totally accurately report what is happening here

So yeah, it's pretty disgustingly bad here. For me it's continue to hunker down and try to keep away from the idiots.

[PhaelixWW]

Now compare the measures taken in the US against these diseases to the extraordinary ones being taken now, as well as the vastly improved medical knowledge, logistics and communication capabilities we have today.

It's also interesting to note that the H2N2 virus (from the '57 pandemic) mutated into the H3N2 virus (from the '68 pandemic), and the H3N2 virus is still around, as one of the main influenza A strains that we deal with in the regular flu season each year. So those pandemics' aftermaths are literally playing out year after year, and we just call them "the flu".

That's very likely to be the end result of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the end, too.

[Omega10]

I wonder how long before we see these same protestors on the news saying how Covid-19 killed one for their loved ones or friends.

All the while ignoring the fact they made the situation worse.

They won't. It will take a couple of weeks for symptoms to be noticeable. The new spikes we are now getting are likely the new ones generated by Easter ceremonies. And these new ones, along with the protestors and meat packing industry and other crowded work areas, will likely fuel the next spike in cases.

The protesters will either lie about it and deny their loved ones got the virus, or find a way to blame Pelosi or China or Italy.

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hmf..either way, no major country can be locked down for 2 years.

Which means the virus basically will never just disappear. So unless a complete cure or an effective vaccine can be mass produced, the restrictions that are placed to control the virus are essentially permanent. You make a fairly strong case for rather stringent restrictions today so that tomorrow the virus won't get out of control and explode.

- - - Updated - - -

"If" you become immune is not a question. You will be immune immediately after recovering. But "for how long" is definitely a valid question.

But even if we don't ever develop a vaccine, we'll still eventually achieve herd immunity. We'll just then go into a bad seasonal cycle where a large percentage of the population will be succeptable to reinfection each year.



Subsequent infections probably wouldn't be as bad, as a partial antibody load is a better starting point than no antibodies at all. And ultimately, the mortality rate would go down because any even older people would have a better chance of recovering due to a prior infection.

Also, people susceptible to the virus are likely to die in the first wave, meaning they will not die in any subsequent waves.

[szechuan]

Also, people susceptible to the virus are likely to die in the first wave, meaning they will not die in any subsequent waves.

That may not be true, we don't know how long the Immunity will last.

[Omega10]

That may not be true, we don't know how long the Immunity will last.

I think you misunderstood. One factor in later rounds is that people that are highly susceptible to the first round won't be able to get it later on since they will die in the first round and unavailable to get it in later rounds. So in later rounds, the population will be somewhat more resistant to the virus, at least to the original version of the virus.

I have not used enough words in this post so:

In later waves, general populations will be likely to be more resistant to the virus for two reasons. One is that many people will have either full or partial immunity, and two is that highly susceptible people will have already died in an earlier wave.

[Zantos]

"If" you become immune is not a question. You will be immune immediately after recovering. But "for how long" is definitely a valid question.

Oh no, its a question of If. There was reportedly cases in Japan, China and South Korea saying some had gotten it again. South Korea was the only one who made a further statement claiming they were false positives while Japan and China don't appear to have made any statements on it.

[swiftowner]

Oh good, my state is moving into phase 2 of reopening the state on Monday. Moving to each phase requires 14 days of decreasing cases, yet our 2 highest days of new cases has been in the last 4 days, with testing decreasing. Fucking Republicans

Basically we do not meet their own criteria for reopening, yet they are moving to reopen anyway

[Shadowferal]

You DO realize that guy literally suggested injecting disenfectants into someone to kill the virus and then throw a 3 day long temper tantrum when no one believed him after saying "I was being sarcastic!". Right?

Pretty sure Shadoowpunk was being tongue-in-cheeky.

[stevenho]

No, she did not.

He. He.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

Pretty funny to see all the "we doomed" fearmongers turn around more and more day after day.
Sweden and Belarus 100% correct BTW.

[Svifnymr]

"If" you become immune is not a question. You will be immune immediately after recovering. But "for how long" is definitely a valid question.

But even if we don't ever develop a vaccine, we'll still eventually achieve herd immunity. We'll just then go into a bad seasonal cycle where a large percentage of the population will be succeptable to reinfection each year.
Subsequent infections probably wouldn't be as bad, as a partial antibody load is a better starting point than no antibodies at all. And ultimately, the mortality rate would go down because any even older people would have a better chance of recovering due to a prior infection.

As I mentioned before, I figure they'll probably just add vaccines for this and it's descendants to the flu shot. Vulnerable types will get it, other folks will refuse it along with the flu shot, life and death will continue on pretty much as before. As you say, even if it may not grant immunity, it'll most likely still be reduced severity.

The other factor will be hopefully figuring out what C19 actually DOES and which medications to treat it, at least until the next thing is immune to the treatments.

In case you're bored, new Facebook conspiracy is that Remdisivir is being pushed because Gates has licensed the drug to the Wuhan lab to make and they're both paying off Fauci...

On an related note, it'll be interesting if this leads to some updating to the ventilator designs. The NASA one seems like the US emergency one, easy setup, short usage, disposable or maybe refurbishable. Hopefully easier to put into action, possibly less damaging? Hell, maybe they can build the virus killing lamps into the design from the start...

[Shadowferal]

Which means the virus basically will never just disappear. So unless a complete cure or an effective vaccine can be mass produced, the restrictions that are placed to control the virus are essentially permanent. You make a fairly strong case for rather stringent restrictions today so that tomorrow the virus won't get out of control and explode.

Just the opposite; if it never goes away then lockdowns are a waste.

[Svifnymr]

Oh no, its a question of If. There was reportedly cases in Japan, China and South Korea saying some had gotten it again. South Korea was the only one who made a further statement claiming they were false positives while Japan and China don't appear to have made any statements on it.

Some of the tests are woefully inadequate, accuracy rate wise. A 60% rate is nearly a coin flip, and even multiple tests over the course of thousands of cases could produce bad results. But, there is still a lot of unknowns, so we'll see I guess.

[Shadowferal]

What we know – and don't know – about immunity to coronavirus

[PhaelixWW]

Oh no, its a question of If. There was reportedly cases in Japan, China and South Korea saying some had gotten it again. South Korea was the only one who made a further statement claiming they were false positives while Japan and China don't appear to have made any statements on it.

Yes, I'm well aware of all those cases. First, the amount of positive-after-negative cases are statistically insignificant. Even if they were all cases of actual reinfection, they would just be considered outliers compared to all the other study done. But the truth is that not a single one has been confirmed as an actual reinfection.

In almost all of the supposed "reinfection" cases, later study found that these people were not symptomatic, and not contagious. The easy explanation is that there was still some residual viral shedding of dead virus after recovery. In a few more cases, the possibility of a false negative before a true positive is the likely scenario, especially considering the not-so-great track record of false negatives with most of the coronavirus tests.

So no, we don't have a single case of actual confirmed reinfection, at least in the short term. And it would take some sizeable amount of reinfections in order to consider that to be an evident threat. It would also fly in the face of conventional wisdom regarding virology, too.

[PACOX]

It's also interesting to note that the H2N2 virus (from the '57 pandemic) mutated into the H3N2 virus (from the '68 pandemic), and the H3N2 virus is still around, as one of the main influenza A strains that we deal with in the regular flu season each year. So those pandemics' aftermaths are literally playing out year after year, and we just call them "the flu".

That's very likely to be the end result of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the end, too.

For sure. But before people say "just end the lockdowns" because of what you said, they also need to understand why the flu is relatively under control now.

We know how to prevent huge outbreaks of the flu. Flu season is predictable. The strain of the year is somewhat predictable. We can monitor vectors of strains and control them. We have effective vaccines, effective health care treatment, and widespread OTC remedies.

With a novel virus such as COVID-19 we have none of that. We thought it just killed old people, until middle-aged people died. Then we thought maybe it was older died, then young people started to die. Then we thought it was unhealthy people until healthy people died.

We thought people died due to lack of oxygen until people started to die of strokes, renal failure, everything but low SpO2 levels.

We can only treat the secondary infections and maybe prevent asphyxiation...except not really.

We don't know much about anything in regards on this virus and it's impact on the human body. Therefore we can't just treat the virus as 'just another flu' before we know how to actually treat it. We only have a very basic understanding of the how it spreads. We have to go through due process before we add it to the number of diseases we have under control.

[exochaft]

Sadly, it seems the only thing to create that would be a vaccine. Until we get more conclusive data on if you're immune after catching it.

Problem then becomes, if you're immune, for how long? If not, then its a far more dire situation than previously thought. Some people are banking on immunity for a time after getting this virus. If anyone can get sick, that would probably increase the mortality rate incredibly quickly for those being reinfected, depending on how soon they catch it again.

The body needs time to heal and recover. Just getting over catching a sickness and then getting reinfected isn't enough time. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it would make the mortality rate more than double or even triple.

Early findings are at least 6 months of immunity. Again, early findings. However, considering that we haven't had any verified cases of reinfection reported anywhere (as far as I know, even in hotspots), that either means a few things:

First, there likely is some level of immunity to COVID-19 and its various mutations if you get one strain of it. Doesn't need to be complete immunity is possible or even necessary, as partial immunity to the point that symptoms are mild at worst. Herd/population immunity doesn't require 100% of the population to have antibodies that fight against COVID-19, more in the range of 50-75% is typically a realistic goal. However, that's the problem with what we're doing in the US right now: stalling herd immunity and indirectly making it harder to come up with definitive answers.

Second, out of all the various mutations of COVID-19, the most contagious mutations are also the ones that are the least virulent (aka, less deadly). We're seeing antibody surveys all over the world pointing towards the spread of COVID-19 is much more widespread than people initially theorized, all trending in the same direction. This means that either strains of the virus were mingling in with the flu season and incorrectly diagnosed as flu (keep in mind, we have been and still are at epidemic levels for the flu in the US), or that a milder mutation(s) of the virus is highly contagious but much less deadly than others. Regardless of what the reason may be, the result is that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is likely much lower than what's being reported... which is generally very low to begin with, which is fantastic news.

Fortunately, from the data we've compiled over the past couple months, we can definitively say that COVID-19 almost exclusively kills eldery people and/or people with pre-existing conditions. In my infinite boredom of being locked up, I've had time to pour over studies and actual data from the federal government and my local/state governments, and all this data trends the same way to the point where it's not even close. Where I currently live, a highly overestimated chance of dying from COVID-19 on average is 0.005% if you contract COVID-19 and don't meet that at-risk demographic (this is using the same state statistics that the government uses).

Keep in mind, I know it's zomgtaboo! to compare this to the flu, but the statistical data shows that the end-results are similar, down to what kills you isn't the virus itself. Average person probably thinks that the flu virus itself kills you, but that's pretty rare. Comorbidity factors, such as COPD, heart disease, etc, are what kill the vast majority of flu victims, which is why most statistics involving the flu are lumped in as Influenza and Pneumonia as it's the most common complication that leads to death (and CDC reporting guidelines and I think the WHO tend to list the cause of death as the first instigator that lead to death, which is the flu virus in this case). COVID-19, which a different mechanism, tends to kill in the same way: the virus itself doesn't kill people, all the comorbidity factors of people catching the virus kill them. This is why in my state the percentage of people who die from COVID-19 with pre-existing conditions is currently 98.2%.

Waiting for a vaccine is nice and all, but the societal cost compared to the likely mortality rate of the virus as understood right now is not worth it in the least. Chances of a vaccine coming out for this virus are actually pretty slim historically for the type/variant of virus, and the human testing portion would still likely take at least a year before even being approved. I hear talk of "we'll end the shutdowns once we eradicate the virus or the deaths stop!", but historically this almost never happens. We could get lucky and get a vaccine, or even better the virus burns itself out like SARS-1 did! However, the most rational response with the data we have now says herd immunity is the best option and that the shutdowns should end. As it stands, this could turn easily into another Spanish flu or Hong Kong flu, where the virus just becomes the norm and life goes on despite how many thousands of deaths occur every year.

If I had a recommendation for people, skip the news stories and go straight to the sources. Most "news" I've seen is 95%-100% opinion/spin, and it's mostly there for shock value or to promote Team <insert your side>. Sure, reading statistical analyses and scientific studies isn't always the most exciting thing, but it's safer to think for yourself using the actual source material than having a new source make up your mind for you and telling you what's "fact." So much fear is driving the narratives and the panic, which is probably worse than the virus itself in the long run.

[PhaelixWW]

He. He.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

Pretty funny to see all the "we doomed" fearmongers turn around more and more day after day.

Don't you get tired of being wrong all the time? Merkel didn't suggest what you're suggesting she suggested. In fact, the link you just quoted specifically stated:

She said since there was no known cure, the focus would fall on slowing the spread of the virus. "It's about winning time," she explained.

Her remarks came as Italy entered its second day of a national lockdown.

Sweden and Belarus 100% correct BTW.

No, they're not. The more you pretend that they are without evidence, the more ridiculous you look.

[Shadowferal]

Jersey gov (Murphy) is "considering" reopening schools next week.
pfft...I have to agree with Cuomo. It's too late to that. Unless he's thinking of the fall season.