Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Granyala]

You're reading way too much into this. The Baby Boomer era is just reaching their average life expectancy. This year, Boomers are ages 56-74. Higher numbers of people have been dying because 75 years ago higher numbers of people were being born.

And apparently the same thing is happening in Germany, fyi:

Interesting PoV, thanks!.
That's an awfully low average life expectancy though. Oo

Yes, I am aware of the similarities to Germany. Always wondered why our rate is so high.

- - - Updated - - -

I have a better theory. Their happier working at home than an office. No rude boss to answer too. No bad coworkers to deal with. Snacks whenever they want. The ability to actually Sit and relax. Music that they enjoy, maybe a tv show in the background or a game on a second set up. Heck, I know from experience that if I can put in headphones and just be let loose, I can work faster and better.

Preach it, brother!

[Yunru]

So one of the teachers got infected by the virus and now 76 kids are stuck in quarantine (and 8 other people that work there).

Those kids must be realy happy.

[Cynep]

No, actually, there can't. Each wave has one actual peak, which is part of the definition of the word "peak".

Wrong. There was even a post in this thread - not my post mind you - showing how exactly you're wrong about only a singular peak being possible.

The irony is tangible, as is the attempted deflection. I don't have to twist your words; they're just plain wrong.

So I said literally "it seems the world as a whole has peaked", which was 100% true in early August, and you spent weeks arguing that "has peaked" somehow means "it's over". You didn't twist my words? My words were wrong? You see, you're repeating the same lie all the time: you quote me and then claim my quote says the opposite of what it actually says, like the quote directly below. Boring after the first couple times.

You're urging people to consider caution to be "fear", and to avoid it. And now you want to take credit for... what... you thinking you're having some positive effect on people around you? Frankly, that's laughable. I mean, you've been objectively wrong more times than I care to count on a number of topics so far.

...
See?

The rest of your post is your usual microsnippets full of gaslighting personal attacks so yeah, not worth my time. Or anyone's, for that matter. Does not contribute to the discussion.

- - - Updated - - -

If it has peaked but is rising again..... Guess what? It hasn't peaked yet.

Or, as another poster asked, how can I be sure if this is the final peak? I can't, no one can until 2022 at least. So what now, we can't discuss cases, and only valid topics are how bad the orange man is and how deluded and disingenuous other people are, the ones we disagree with? No, I think preliminary discussion of the pandemic is the reason why this thread exists. I was ready to eat my hat mid-August, but the twin peaks I was talking about are easily visible so I was proven correct. They won't be the highest peaks, but that wasn't the point - we all were wary of back-to-school and winter's second wave, so a respite, even temporary, was welcome.

- - - Updated - - -

I have a better theory. Their happier working at home than an office. No rude boss to answer too. No bad coworkers to deal with. Snacks whenever they want. The ability to actually Sit and relax. Music that they enjoy, maybe a tv show in the background or a game on a second set up. Heck, I know from experience that if I can put in headphones and just be let loose, I can work faster and better.

Yes, for some industries the silver lining of Covid will be that working remotely from home will become more accepted and widespread. Not possible for some jobs, but a positive outcome for some others.

[Granyala]

Those kids must be realy happy.

Sure 2 weeks extra vacation. Though teachers most likely bombard them with worksheets and the like.
Not as much free time as you think.

[Forogil]

Found this new study https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...t-lasting.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1 :
Using blood-samples collected from male HIV-patients over 35 years, they now tested them for other corona-virus.
Critically they found several reinfections, and they were within 6-105 months, suggesting that immunity only lasts about a year.
Key is whether the same holds true for Sars-Cov-2, especially after severe infections - if so that isn't good.

- - - Updated - - -

I have a better theory. Their happier working at home than an office. No rude boss to answer too. No bad coworkers to deal with. Snacks whenever they want. The ability to actually Sit and relax. Music that they enjoy, maybe a tv show in the background or a game on a second set up. Heck, I know from experience that if I can put in headphones and just be let loose, I can work faster and better.

True, there are so many advantages.

Obviously there can also be some disadvantages - including some who cannot manage it, but I don't understand why a company finds it important to have workers at their premises most of the time.

[Granyala]

[...] suggesting that immunity only lasts about a year.
Key is whether the same holds true for Sars-Cov-2, especially after severe infections - if so that isn't good.

I don't understand why a company finds it important to have workers at their premises most of the time.

Well as Phaelix already stated: that would make SARS-II similar to the flu. Once most of the people have their yearly shots, this thing won't be as dramatic anymore.

You do realize that bosses get off on controlling others? That's one of the main reasons why they are so against people working from home.

[PhaelixWW]

Wrong. There was even a post in this thread - not my post mind you - showing how exactly you're wrong about only a singular peak being possible.

Nah, that post was wrong, too, just like you. It used, as evidence, a misinterpreted quote warning about the error in doing exactly what you did: claim that the peak has already happened without waiting for definitive proof, then being caught off guard by a "second" peak which just invalidates the idea of the first one as a peak. In the end, the only actual peak is the highest one.

So I said literally "it seems the world as a whole has peaked", which was 100% true in early August

Nope, that was never true, as I said at the time. It wasn't true even before it was demonstrably untrue following the next high mark in mid-August. It also wasn't true for the mid-August mark, as the new high mark emerged in early September. And it's again demonstrably still not true now that the rates have reached a new high mark as of yesterday, with an even higher mark likely to be set today.

and you spent weeks arguing that "has peaked" somehow means "it's over".

If the rate had peaked, then it would never reach that mark again and would be on a relative downhill slope (with possible small fluctuations) the rest of the way.

That didn't happen, again, because you were wrong about the world having peaked.

See?

No. I'll be honest, you're simply not making a lot of sense. Can't say I'm surprised, though.

The rest of your post is your usual microsnippets full of gaslighting personal attacks so yeah, not worth my time.

As usual, you bury your head in the sand to avoid having to admit to not having anything close to a proper rebuttal. This started because I illustrated data that is contradictory to your weird assertions.

Or, as another poster asked, how can I be sure if this is the final peak? I can't, no one can until 2022 at least.

So if, in your mind, all that it takes to "peak" is for one day to be lower than the day before, then what the heck is even the point in stating that "it appears that the world has peaked"? Why have you not stated it every time this happens? You'd have us believe that you have this alternate definition of "peak" that somehow only was worth mentioning that one time, and that you didn't believe that the rate was going to keep going downward after that?

Nobody's buying what you're selling, man. I mean, you'd be wrong either way, but this is just far less believable.

So what now, we can't discuss cases, and only valid topics are how bad the orange man is and how deluded and disingenuous other people are, the ones we disagree with?

Wow, such an impressive strawman you've built. The last time I, at least, mentioned Trump was back in June. And a person is labeled "delusional" when they disagree with science and rational thought, not a specific person.

I was ready to eat my hat mid-August, but the twin peaks I was talking about are easily visible so I was proven correct.

Lulz, nope. The first time you mentioned the term, or even the concept (mistaken as it is) of "twin peaks" was on 8/24. None of that really matters anyway, though, because those so-called "twin peaks" were eclipsed only a week later, on 9/1.

So you attempted to goal-shift, and you still got it wrong, because the rate is still going up.

They won't be the highest peaks, but that wasn't the point - we all were wary of back-to-school and winter's second wave, so a respite, even temporary, was welcome.

But that is the point: there was no respite. A respite implies that things got better for a while, but the best you can realistically say is that they temporarily didn't get worse. The rate never really dropped significantly. It fluctuated briefly along a few percent, and now it's going back up as we start back-to-school.

So there will be no new wave for back-to-school, nor for winter, because they will all be a part of the still-increasing first wave.

We're at 210k so far today, but my guess is that we'll see today's total end around 275k. That will push the 7-day rolling average up to about 279k. Honestly, in the face of this, the contortions that you have to twist yourself into to try and even pretend like your statement a month ago was correct is just embarrassing.

- - - Updated - - -

Found this new study https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...t-lasting.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1 :
Using blood-samples collected from male HIV-patients over 35 years, they now tested them for other corona-virus.
Critically they found several reinfections, and they were within 6-105 months, suggesting that immunity only lasts about a year.
Key is whether the same holds true for Sars-Cov-2, especially after severe infections - if so that isn't good.

I don't see why this has to be catastrophic, especially considering that it's not entirely unexpected. Vaccines generally produce a stronger immunity than simple recovery, so we may be looking at SARS-CoV-2 booster shots every year or two. If this has the tangential effect of encouraging more people to get their yearly flu shots as well, this could actually cause many lives to be saved in the long run.

Though I have to admit that that's a fairly first-world viewpoint on the issue. It may very well prove catastrophic to nations that can't afford to provide yearly booster shots to their population.

[Forogil]

Well as Phaelix already stated: that would make SARS-II similar to the flu. Once most of the people have their yearly shots, this thing won't be as dramatic anymore.

Far from everyone gets flu shots yearly, and one major reason for yearly flu shots is genetic drift - and different strains becoming active.
Such differences don't seem to be such a significant factor for other corona-viruses, but we still get reinfections.
(And then there are problems with the flu shots being far from 100% effective.)

It's not like the flu, and there are indications that:

Flu can give immunity lasting a life-time (against the same flu), not just a year: http://content.time.com/time/health/...835907,00.html
Flu gives a stronger immunity than flu-vaccines (but is more dangerous) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0016809

Added: Oh, and yearly flu shots is one sense not enough.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professional...nogenicity.htm
Flu vaccines start being ineffective after half a year or so; they simply don't last a year - and that's why vaccinations don't start earlier.

However, you might be right - we might treat it as the flu: some will get a yearly vaccine - it will help some, and some not, and some will die - but we will ignore it.

[Gaidax]

Even if the vaccine will not be permanent, it will be enough to eventually effectively eradicate the virus.

[Forogil]

Even if the vaccine will not be permanent, it will be enough to eventually effectively eradicate the virus.

We will see, but I wouldn't bet on it - as we have only managed to do it with one human disease so far, and there were stronger reasons to do it - lethal disease for children.

[beanman12345]

We will see, but I wouldn't bet on it - as we have only managed to do it with one human disease so far, and there were stronger reasons to do it - lethal disease for children.

We are almost at 2, so close with polio, which again, lethal disease for children.

[Granyala]

However, you might be right - we might treat it as the flu: some will get a yearly vaccine - it will help some, and some not, and some will die - but we will ignore it.

Correct. This thing will fade from public view/memory faster than we would like to admit.
Just like we never cared about the thousands that died due to the flu.

[postman1782]

There was a reason that the Big 10 and PAC 12 were going to postpone their seasons, but apparently not now.

https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ed-coronavirus

I think the last time I saw in Alabama back in August the 29th, the University of Alabama had 1200 cases, which is a lot for some place that has 40,000 students. The last time they updated their cases was 4 days ago, apparently it is almost 2400 cases now. https://uasystem.edu/covid-19-dashboard/

It is going to get worse, and now you have to worry about these athletes now having permanent organ damage from this, since it can effect lungs and heart permanently.

[Zantos]

Even if the vaccine will not be permanent, it will be enough to eventually effectively eradicate the virus.

Not even in the slightest. As long as the virus lives Somewhere, it can come back and cause more harm. There are plenty of examples of this with things that do have a permanent vaccine, like the measles. It was eradicated from the US and then it returned because a few people decided not to vaccinate their children for it. Now, imagine that, but with a none permanent vaccine.

You would need the vast majority of people to have it effective at basically all times to slow it. It wont get rid of it for good.

[Forogil]

I don't see why this has to be catastrophic, especially considering that it's not entirely unexpected. Vaccines generally produce a stronger immunity than simple recovery, so we may be looking at SARS-CoV-2 booster shots every year or two. If this has the tangential effect of encouraging more people to get their yearly flu shots as well, this could actually cause many lives to be saved in the long run.

Where did you find the idea that vaccines normally produce a stronger immunity than recovery?

Obviously it can happen, as there are indications that it happens for HPV-vaccines. And it may help if the vaccine is given at the right spot, and the Chinese nasal spray vaccine is thus a good step - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-world-first

[Felya]

Correct. This thing will fade from public view/memory faster than we would like to admit.
Just like we never cared about the thousands that died due to the flu.

I really doubt it... there are 200000 dead people in US alone. Unlike the common flu, you’ll be telling the next generation about those covid years. This is hundreds of thousands dead in US alone and we haven’t even reached a year. That’s hundreds of thousands people morning every year, due to a dead loved one.

[Draco-Onis]

Correct. This thing will fade from public view/memory faster than we would like to admit.
Just like we never cared about the thousands that died due to the flu.

I mean who will ever remember the economic depression we are experiencing due to the virus worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the millions of people getting infected and dying. Who will remember the historic stimulus packages and the economic K recovery fall out and the effects of the futures of countless generations to come.

I can go on but that has to be one of the dumbest thing I have ever seen on these forums.

- - - Updated - - -

I really doubt it... there are 200000 dead people in US alone. Unlike the common flu, you’ll be telling the next generation about those covid years. This is hundreds of thousands dead in US alone and we haven’t even reached a year. That’s hundreds of thousands people morning every year, due to a dead loved one.

The political landscape alone has entirely shifted due to COVID leaders like Merkel and Trudeau were basically declared dead have hit historic approval ratings and countries like Russia, Belarus, Israel are experiencing upheaval because of it. There are a lot of people who desperately want this to go away and go back to the way things were but it won't COVID-19 has basically changed the course of history in too many ways.

[Felya]

I mean who will ever remember the economic depression we are experiencing due to the virus worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the millions of people getting infected and dying. Who will remember the historic stimulus packages and the economic K recovery fall out and the effects of the futures of countless generations to come.

I can go on but that has to be one of the dumbest thing I have ever seen on these forums.

Trump is literally defunding social security, as part of his economic recovery plan. If Trump follows through with his payroll tax cut being permanent, we will lose social security by 2023 and covid will be blamed.

This is going to be your 9/11, millennials and zoomers. You are going to be telling your grand kids about how life was before covid... Just like Gen X talks about life before 9/11.

[Granyala]

I can go on but that has to be one of the dumbest thing I have ever seen on these forums.

I was referring to the virus, not to what happens right now. The current events surely will end up in the history books and economic fallout alone will keep us busy for many years.

If there is a vaccine and yearly numbers end up being similar to the flu, yes: people will no longer think about it.

[Draco-Onis]

I was referring to the virus, not to what happens right now. The current events surely will end up in the history books and economic fallout alone will keep us busy for many years.

If there is a vaccine and yearly numbers end up being similar to the flu, yes: people will no longer think about it.

How are they going to do that when they will be feeling the fallout for decades? That's like saying you won't think about losing your legs when walking with prosthetics. I know people are sick of it but it will always be on the back of your head.