Originally Posted by
kaminaris
You don't know math then, absolutely.
Oh so lets run a simulation for people that don't really understand the problem.
Right now we have about 100 (98 for my spec without azerite gear- actually counted that) items form dungeons, lets call that dungeon loot pool. On the other hand raid has about ~30 (28 for my spec) items and that is raid loot pool.
Now half of these items are useless in both cases meaning even lower ilvl can be better with good stats.
That leaves us 50 kinda useful items from M+ out of 100
15 items from raid out of 30.
First weeks you will probably get upgrade anyways because of chances, but remember that vault also gives item if you killed raid bosses
R - Raider
M - Mythic plus guy
Wx - week x
W1: R: 50% + 49%, M: 50%
After first week raider has 2 items and M+ guy got only one
Pool of useful items get slimmer by one/two item slot (so all items from that slot, lets assume they both hit bis)
W2: R: 46% + 48%, M: 46.5%
After second week raider got 4 items unless he is extremely unlucky (but we assume medium luck in both cases)
Pool of useful items got slimmer by another item slot for M+ guy and 2 slots for raider
The crux here is that since vault ALSO offers items from raid raider got actually higher chance to get something useful than dungeon guy despite having more slots filled up.
W3: R: 36% + 36%, M+: 43%
After third week you can actually start see duplicates but since raid allows to trade items, you can also get something good from other people as well.
Vault doesnt allow trading, if all your options are shit, then tough luck.
Raider got 6 items, M+ guy got 3, that is average that can and will happen since high chances and loot trading plus coins that again, works in raid, doesn't work for vault.
W4: R: 26% + 22%, M+: 40%
And forth week is where chances are somewhat similar, even tho raider still has advantage, however statistics says they both get one item assuming medium luck.
Raider got 7 items, M+ guy got 4 items.
At week fifth, dupes are bound to happen in raid, raider continues to have advantage and has half the slots filled in, ready to receive 2 items (one from raid one from vault) and got coins just in case.
M+ guy chances goes down to 36%.
Now the formulas if you are interested in:
We have ~15 gear slots to fill. Assuming equal distribution of gear there is around
2 items per slot in raid
and
6.66 items per slot in dungeons
Formula for calculating chance of getting upgrade in slot that hasn't been upgraded yet is:
chance = ((totalSlots - filledInSlots) * (itemPerSlot / 2)) / totalLootAmount
for example if you have 2 good items, you only want 13 items, you divide itemPerSlot because we assumed that half of items is total garbage.
chance = ((15 - 2) * (6.66/2)) / 100
chance = 0.4329 = 43%
There is just no way to ever catch up to raider.