War (?) has broken out in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[Biglog]

The Azerbaijan population is quite a bit larger than Armenia, so it's kind of a lopsided fight to start. Add-in Turkey who is very directly militarily helping Azerbaijan already (and Erdogan reiterated his military support today), and Armenia will need help for sure to avoid losing badly.

The million dollar question is whether Russia, France, or someone else will step in and support Armenia. If not it's honestly just a matter of time until they lose Nagorno-Karabakh, and then we'll see if Erdogan and Azerbaijan stop there.

[Thekri]

The Azerbaijan population is quite a bit larger than Armenia, so it's kind of a lopsided fight to start. Add-in Turkey who is very directly militarily helping Azerbaijan already (and Erdogan reiterated his military support today), and Armenia will need help for sure to avoid losing badly.

The million dollar question is whether Russia, France, or someone else will step in and support Armenia. If not it's honestly just a matter of time until they lose Nagorno-Karabakh, and then we'll see if Erdogan and Azerbaijan stop there.

Wouldn't bet on that. Armenia has beaten Azerbaijan before, that is why they have it in the first place. Armenia is just a lot better at fighting then Azerbaijan, mostly due to massive corruption and nepotism in the Azerbaijani military. If Turkey throws actual muscle into the fight then I agree with you though, I don't think Armenia could handle that.

It is worth noting that Armenia hasn't committed its regular forces to Nagorno-Karabakh yet, at least officially, while Azerbaijan has. The line between the Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces and the Armenian military is a bit blurry, but Armenia still has a lot of cards left to play. Azerbaijan is burning through their best cards really fast. Those Israeli loitering munitions they are using to considerable effect aren't unlimited, they will be running low on them soon, if they aren't already.

[Gaidax]

The Azerbaijan population is quite a bit larger than Armenia, so it's kind of a lopsided fight to start. Add-in Turkey who is very directly militarily helping Azerbaijan already (and Erdogan reiterated his military support today), and Armenia will need help for sure to avoid losing badly.

The million dollar question is whether Russia, France, or someone else will step in and support Armenia. If not it's honestly just a matter of time until they lose Nagorno-Karabakh, and then we'll see if Erdogan and Azerbaijan stop there.

There will be a lot of calls for ceasefire of course, but I don't think there will be any active stepping in for Armenia because they are the actual aggressor in this case, seeing how that clot of land internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

I, personally, think that patch of land should go to Armenia, but whatever - we have our own fights to fight and I don't mind Azeris purchasing more of our sweet drones to wage their silly wars anyway. /shrug

[Easo]

Shit has been escalating still, missiles and drones over Armenia proper, Karabakh's capital is under missile fire - read, Azeri's are pretty much killing civilians. No one is surprised, of course. Armenia is supposedly answering to that as well (and thus killing civilians on the opposite side), too much bullshit by both sides.
Azerbaijan has taken some land but still nothing major. I wonder how long before patriotic euphoria ends and Baku has nothing to show for the days of fighting. Information will get out sooner or later about the status of the war.

And if USA, France and Russia all agree that Turkey has sent fighters from Syria to Azerbaijan, then it is highly likely that they are.
Reason? Has to be attempt to reduce the official casualties, the less Azeri casualties, the easier to make people forget them.
Aliyev should rethink his choice - would those fighters want to leave after the war? And is importing islamic fanatics in your country a smart choice?
Plus there are some troubling reports that minorities are being prioritised for draft to the frontline, Avars for one. Again, same reason as above, most likely, if the reports are true.


There is a video with 32 dead Azeri soldiers in full battle gear. Take a look at the official casualty report from Baku (but wait, there really is none) and make the obvious conclusion that Azerbaijan is talking absolute bullshit. Armenia at least publishes their casualties, both dead and wounded and the numbers are more or less believable.
It's NSFW, but I can PM if someone want's that.

@Thekri - that strange thing yesterday indeed looks to be An-2 remade into drone, which explains the slowness and small flying height.

You'd be useless even if you spend 100% of your GDP. Know your place.

So who is going to sanction Turkey? Mighty Romania and rest of the irrelevant?
You do not get to talk about kicking Turkey out of NATO when you are part of a village with 35B GDP. You know your fucking place.

Superiority complex continues.

There will be a lot of calls for ceasefire of course, but I don't think there will be any active stepping in for Armenia because they are the actual aggressor in this case, seeing how that clot of land internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

I, personally, think that patch of land should go to Armenia, but whatever - we have our own fights to fight and I don't mind Azeris purchasing more of our sweet drones to wage their silly wars anyway. /shrug

They cannot be called agressors just because they are holding that ground. They have not really gone to war in more than 25 years. Usually we call agressors those who attack - which is almost guaranteed to be Azerbaijan in this case, de iure land or not. And that land being de iure Azerbaijani is one the of biggest idiocies done by USSR and that should be saying a lot. As I said before, both countries should have done land swaps long time ago.
P.S.
Sometimes one should rethink to whom they are selling stuff. Moral high ground can be worth it.

[Gaidax]

Sometimes one should rethink to whom they are selling stuff. Moral high ground can be worth it.

What moral high ground?

In between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the end, that land by law demands to Azerbaijan and it does not matter what and why - it's what they got back in the day signed and stamped - you could say it was a bad deal, but it was a deal. That said, I do think Armenia has a good case there because it's their populace there, basically. It's not so simple overall.

As for weapons deals, let's not be silly. Money talks, bullshit walks. Everyone sells weapons to everyone, we do so too and Azerbaijan is not a frikkin' North Korea there. /shrug

[Easo]

Some journalists also have been wounded so far. Photos and videos are coming with damaged homes and streets in Stepanakert.

What moral high ground?

In between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the end, that land by law demands to Azerbaijan and it does not matter what and why - it's what they got back in the day signed and stamped - you could say it was a bad deal, but it was a deal. That said, I do think Armenia has a good case there because it's their populace there, basically. It's not so simple overall.

As for weapons deals, let's not be silly. Money talks, bullshit walks. Everyone sells weapons to everyone, we do so too and Azerbaijan is not a frikkin' North Korea there. /shrug

They did not get a deal nor did they sign anything. There were no deals in USSR, Moscow decided to give Karabakh to Azerbaijan SSR for some unexplainable reason after again conquering the region in the 1920ies (basically, what happened with Crimea few decades later). You are from Israel - you should know very well about de iure territory and international law as opposed to common sense, don't you?
But overall it is very simple - Karabakh is literally 99% inhabited by Armenians. Any attempts to change that would more or less likely just end in genocide. Biggest question should be about the territory held between Armenia and Karabkah, which Azeris lost in the 90ties war. South should literally just go to Azerbaijan (and thus connect the exclave of Nakhchivan with rest of the country) and north should have a land strip remaining to connect Armenia and Karabakh.

Israel also once sold weapons to Turkey. That relationship did not end well now, did it? How long before the other kind of turks listen too much to Erdo? Also, Israel often talks about being right - that's why I mentioned that high ground.

[Gaidax]

Some journalists also have been wounded so far. Photos and videos are coming with damaged homes and streets in Stepanakert.



They did not get a deal nor did they sign anything. There were no deals in USSR, Moscow decided to give Karabakh to Azerbaijan SSR for some unexplainable reason after again conquering the region in the 1920ies (basically, what happened with Crimea few decades later). You are from Israel - you should know very well about de iure territory and international law as opposed to common sense, don't you?
But overall it is very simple - Karabakh is literally 99% inhabited by Armenians. Any attempts to change that would more or less likely just end in genocide. Biggest question should be about the territory held between Armenia and Karabkah, which Azeris lost in the 90ties war. South should literally just go to Azerbaijan (and thus connect the exclave of Nakhchivan with rest of the country) and north should have a land strip remaining to connect Armenia and Karabakh.

Israel also once sold weapons to Turkey. That relationship did not end well now, did it? How long before the other kind of turks listen too much to Erdo? Also, Israel often talks about being right - that's why I mentioned that high ground.

This talk of moral high ground is irrelevant when it comes to weapon contracts. It's same shit as any country in the world that can export arms, in the end $$ is the name of the game.

As for Turkey it's a history of love/hate relationship based on merits. Erdogan pushes his agendas and his anti-Israel attitude all part of the plan of being a big boy in the region, but Erdogan is not eternal and chances are once he goes - it will be back on track. Heck we even had relations with Iran before the whole '79 thing.

I would not mind selling arms to either and let them sort it out between themselves. It's their business and their countries, they get to decide.

[Kuntantee]

If you believe Armenian numbers are correct, there is 20-30 minute if drone footage raining hell on Armenian soldiers. Official Armenian number for the dead is 150 or so as far as I know. More people die in those drone footage. Now these are the ones released for propaganda purposes. Extreme gore stuff and OPSEC compromising videos will not be released as captures are high def. You can find these videos on relevant reddits.

While I support Azerbaijan, I do not support senseless slaughter for both sides. If Armenia continues, it’s going to be a meat grinder for them. They should try to strike a deal but I doubt Azerbaijan is going to take it.

[Easo]

Azerbaijan does not even have an official number, AFAIK (let's see how that long that holds up, losses cannot be hidden forever). It looks like most of the strength is in the drones, but you cannot take land with them, you have to send in infantry at some point. And Azeri infantry is definitely very mortal. Besides that video with 32 corpses there are others. Another recent one was a retaken fortified post - roughly 10 more dead soldiers. Just two videos and you already have 42 dead on the Azerbaijan side. Meatgrinder? Maybe. But it is far from onesided meatgrinder and it looks like Azeri's are not that good on the ground.

Azerbaijan is winning propaganda war, though. Drone strike videos are effective tool.

P.S.
If someone understands Russian, then you can find quite a lot of info from both sides over there https://lostarmour.info/offtopic/caucasus/ (site known for counting lost tanks and similar equipment with dates, photos, location, etc.)

Also a surreal video of Iranians watching the ongoing war from their side of the border. Truly, peak 2020...
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1312129487220342785
and
https://twitter.com/TeghSer/status/1311646984059617281

[Kuntantee]

This talk of moral high ground is irrelevant when it comes to weapon contracts. It's same shit as any country in the world that can export arms, in the end $$ is the name of the game.

As for Turkey it's a history of love/hate relationship based on merits. Erdogan pushes his agendas and his anti-Israel attitude all part of the plan of being a big boy in the region, but Erdogan is not eternal and chances are once he goes - it will be back on track. Heck we even had relations with Iran before the whole '79 thing.

I would not mind selling arms to either and let them sort it out between themselves. It's their business and their countries, they get to decide.

You know that Turkish/Israeli business is better then ever right? Anti-semitic shit he spouts is mainly for portion of his voter-base.

[Kellhound]

You know that Turkish/Israeli business is better then ever right? Anti-semitic shit he spouts is mainly for portion of his voter-base.

Which still doesn't amount to a great deal, especially in weapons.

[Kuntantee]

Which still doesn't amount to a great deal, especially in weapons.

That’s for different reasons. We purchased their drones around 2009. Normally, Israeli hardware is good but those drones were simply shit. Israel also refused to support Turkey on this. Drone programs were then given highest priority. Result? Extreme success and therefore no need to buy them from Israel.

[Gaidax]

You know that Turkish/Israeli business is better then ever right? Anti-semitic shit he spouts is mainly for portion of his voter-base.

It can be much better, we still make a ton of deals with Turkey, but relations for sure used to be warmer before Erdogan went coocoo with ambitions.

/shrug

[Easo]

Azerbaijan seems to have switched to terror tactics and has kept firing a lot of missiles at Stepanakert, internet is full of damaged apartment houses, cars, streets, etc. They obviously are not shooting at military targets, like army bases near the city, the airport, or similar, since the tactical ballistic missiles usually have enough accuracy for such tasks. Guesses are that since they could not break Armenian defense they decided to start war of attrition.

Which also means another thing - the patriotic fervour might be running out and that, in turns, means that Aliyev might have to start worrying about his ass...

[Thekri]

Armenia announced a full counter-offensive about an hour ago, so I expect we will start seeing a dramatic change on the battlefield soon, as this presumably means the Armenian regular Army is being committed. It is also likely to strike into Azerbaijan proper, given the amount of attacks we have seen inside Armenia already.

As @Easo said, Azerbaijan seems to be firing on population centers, presumably to force evacuations. Armenia's typical reaction to this is to clear the Azerbaijani side of the border and enforce and exclusion zone, as they did in 2016 and 2005. So I expect to see the fighting intensify a lot over the next 24 hours, as Armenians go on the offense to roll back the recent Azeri gains, and then some. This is likely also the excuse Turkey has been waiting for to officially get involved militarily.

[Easo]

More photos/videos with dead Azeri soldiers and more and more proof that airlifted Syrian mercenaries are definitely over there. Let's be fair, Armenians have received volunteers from their diaspora and Kurds, but as we know - volunteers are not mercenaries and they are getting to Armenia on their own without any kind of general organization as opposed to Turkey chartering planes and offering money to "guard objects".

Armenia announced a full counter-offensive about an hour ago, so I expect we will start seeing a dramatic change on the battlefield soon, as this presumably means the Armenian regular Army is being committed. It is also likely to strike into Azerbaijan proper, given the amount of attacks we have seen inside Armenia already.

As @Easo said, Azerbaijan seems to be firing on population centers, presumably to force evacuations. Armenia's typical reaction to this is to clear the Azerbaijani side of the border and enforce and exclusion zone, as they did in 2016 and 2005. So I expect to see the fighting intensify a lot over the next 24 hours, as Armenians go on the offense to roll back the recent Azeri gains, and then some. This is likely also the excuse Turkey has been waiting for to officially get involved militarily.

Yeah, Armenian president made a big patriotic speech and announced counter-offensive going on in one direction, IIRC (not sure which one, Ganja maybe?).

Direct attack on Armenia officially should involve Russia coming to it's defense as per CSTO (and Georgia most likely would let them pass, this is not the time to play big). I don't believe Erdogan will risk it. Fighting in mountains sucks very much and Armenia might hold out just long enough to be reinforced.

[Kuntantee]

Armenia played the "Turkey vs Armenia" card quite well it seems. People think Turkey wants to or is fighting with Armenia. Turkey's involvement is mainly selling TB-2 drones to Azerbaijan and related training. This is in-line with international law and UN regulations. Armenia also buys hardware from Russia.

I would even question advisory involvement of Turkish Chief Staff as Azerbaijan failed to grasp the steep resistance that Armenians would show and attempted to push in certain parts without tearing the enemy down first, effectively resulting in casualties. This has been the critique of ex-Turkish generals analyzing the situation. Now what we know is TAF is already experienced at "droning down" forces w/o (or with poor) air superiority and then executing a "sweeping push". We have seen this against SAA, PKK, Haftar. There is no way TAF Chief Staff would advise for a push at this stage.

My conclusion is we are just selling weapons and political support and maybe some air-space coverage with Turkish jets. That's it.

[caervek]

Armenia played the "Turkey vs Armenia" card quite well it seems. People think Turkey wants to or is fighting with Armenia.

This whole skirmish/conflict is just the latest extension of the Erdogan vs Putin dick waving that's been going on in Syria and Libya for some time now. Azerbaijan would never have attacked Armenia without the assurance of Turkish support, this is just more regional politics with Turkey continuing to move against Russian interests in the region.

[Kuntantee]

This whole skirmish/conflict is just the latest extension of the Erdogan vs Putin dick waving that's been going on in Syria and Libya for some time now. Azerbaijan would never have attacked Armenia without the assurance of Turkish support, this is just more regional politics with Turkey continuing to move against Russian interests in the region.

No. Current government of Armenia was trying to distance themselves from Russia. I am not sure what triggered the clashes again but I know what's keeping Russia from interfering this time. It has nothing to do with our rivalry with Russia.

[Kellhound]

That’s for different reasons. We purchased their drones around 2009. Normally, Israeli hardware is good but those drones were simply shit. Israel also refused to support Turkey on this. Drone programs were then given highest priority. Result? Extreme success and therefore no need to buy them from Israel.

Drones are not actually that hard to design and build. If you can build a light aircraft, you can build a drone.