Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

I seem to remember a period when everyone was "anti-vaxx", or are you suggesting that there was a vaccine from the get-go?

You are wrong.
People weren't "anti-vaxx" at the start; but they knew that it would take time to develop, test, and produce a vaccine. Some were a bit too pessimistic, so not only did we get a vaccine - we got multiple vaccines faster than most hoped, that are safe - and highly effective.

And the wiki data also doubles the number of infections to 1 bil,

Again you are making things up, the wikipedia article just cites 500 million infected in the Spanish flu; although there's likely a large uncertainty.

"Well the deaths might be higher (also the infections might be too)."
Oh sorry so from
5 mil deaths 250 mil infections 8000 mil pop
to
20 mil deaths 1000 mil infections 8000 mil pop

So the death rate doesnt really change, cool.

I didn't say that it was just one billion infected.
And the death rate isn't important in itself - Ebola has a much higher case fatality rate, but as long as it doesn't spread over the world that's not really a concern.

Dont forget the modern immune system.

It was same in 1918, as the immune system hasn't evolved significantly the last couple of centuries.
Seriously you have no clue, right?

Well, it was a 2 year to 2 year comparison.

It wasn't.
The flu that started the pandemic began spreading 1917, but the pandemic began in the spring of 1918 and lasted at least until the spring of 1920. Similarly covid-19 began spreading in November 2019, but the pandemic didn't really start until the spring of 2020 - so the two year mark is in the spring of 2022.

However:

Someone failed to adjust for 1920 population.
Also, why would i look at places in isolation when the pandemic is global.

The covid-19 pandemic aint over yet - and if people don't use the available vaccines the death tolls will surely increase - even past an artificial two-year mark.

[Ursus]

I give your post 8/10 on that level.

You're being far too stingy. Literally every single one of Demasiados's posts in this thread have earned a 10/10 on the stupidity spectrum. He's like the Nadia Comaneci of dumbassery.

[Demasiados]

You are wrong.
People weren't "anti-vaxx" at the start; but they knew that it would take time to develop, test, and produce a vaccine. Some were a bit too pessimistic, so not only did we get a vaccine - we got multiple vaccines faster than most hoped, that are safe - and highly effective.

Usually, when people quote something not as a citation its a not thing defined by the words quoted.
saying 'anti-vaxx' means anti-vaxx, by saying "anti-vaxx" was me saying effectivelly, but not actually anti-vaxx
Sorry for the confusion.

Again you are making things up, the wikipedia article just cites 500 million infected in the Spanish flu; although there's likely a large uncertainty.

Have you really skipped that table where theres both 500 mil and 1 bil citations?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influe...enza_pandemics

I didn't say that it was just one billion infected.

I get the impression you think it should be more.

And the death rate isn't important in itself - Ebola has a much higher case fatality rate, but as long as it doesn't spread over the world that's not really a concern.

Fck, mortality rate and case fatality rate are actually not both the latter, my bad.
"The chance of getting covid in the US is low. Skip masks, wash hands" suggests to me pandemic declaration catalyst seems to be the contagiousness rate.

It was same in 1918, as the immune system hasn't evolved significantly the last couple of centuries.
Seriously you have no clue, right?

I did no know "modern" actually means from before spanish flu.................

It wasn't.
The flu that started the pandemic began spreading 1917, but the pandemic began in the spring of 1918 and lasted at least until the spring of 1920. Similarly covid-19 began spreading in November 2019, but the pandemic didn't really start until the spring of 2020 - so the two year mark is in the spring of 2022.

Got it, will put this argument on hold then.

The covid-19 pandemic aint over yet - and if people don't use the available vaccines the death tolls will surely increase - even past an artificial two-year mark.

Nothing to react to here.

[Forogil]

Usually, when people quote something not as a citation its a not thing defined by the words quoted.
saying 'anti-vaxx' means anti-vaxx, by saying "anti-vaxx" was me saying effectivelly, but not actually anti-vaxx

No-one uses "anti-vaxx" to mean that there people knew that weren't a vaccine available yet.

Have you really skipped that table where theres both 500 mil and 1 bil citations?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influe...enza_pandemics

It wasn't linked before and I haven't read all of Wikipedia; and my main point was that the case-numbers are less certain. And for covid-19 the number of infected is harder to determine and even less useful as a metric, due to reinfections.

What is more is that as in many other less visible Wikipedia pages related to hot topics there are problems; they cite a WHO-report that doesn't seem to directly contain that number.

I did no know "modern" actually means from before spanish flu.................

You were saying that 2019 covid-pandemic were lessened due to "modern immune system" in comparison to 1918-1920 flu pandemic; and I just stated that the immune systems haven't evolved during the last couple of centuries.

There's also theory misnamed that by a crank when it should be called "modern theory of the immune system" (that I haven't investigated further - when it looks like a pseudo-scientist I don't look further).

Nothing to react to here.

The sane reaction to "The covid-19 pandemic aint over yet - and if people don't use the available vaccines the death tolls will surely increase - even past an artificial two-year mark." is to book your vaccination if you haven't already.

But what are you arguing in favor of?

That vaccines and modern medicine have made this pandemic less lethal, and therefore we shouldn't take the vaccine?

Same logic that fewer persons die in car-crashes now - for a number of reasons including seat-belts so we shouldn't wear seat-belts?

[Demasiados]

The sane reaction to "The covid-19 pandemic aint over yet - and if people don't use the available vaccines the death tolls will surely increase - even past an artificial two-year mark." is to book your vaccination if you haven't already.

"book your vaccination if you havent already" is already starting to apply to the vaccinated, how is one supposed to keep up...

But what are you arguing in favor of?

That vaccines and modern medicine have made this pandemic less lethal, and therefore we shouldn't take the vaccine?

Same logic that fewer persons die in car-crashes now - for a number of reasons including seat-belts so we shouldn't wear seat-belts?

Seatbelt would be an apt analogy for the other covid restrictions like mask, hygiene, social distancing and so on.
You know, the non-invasive stuff, which i am not really against.

Vaccines is where it kinda starts to cross the rubicon for me and it keeps on expanding.
---
"They estimate that for herd immunity to come into effect would require 60% to 70% population vaccinated, so i upped it to 80 to 85"
And they are making a netflix documentary about this guy as hes basking in his 1$ mil award money

[unfilteredJW]

What is it with the same kind of ignorant person that keeps popping up in here and smugly acting like they are informed and the smartest in the room?

Sit back down at the fucking kids table.

[Poopymonster]

What is it with the same kind of ignorant person that keeps popping up in here and smugly acting like they are informed and the smartest in the room?

Sit back down at the fucking kids table.

But I spent a whole 30 minutes researching it on Youtube! It would have been longer, but I had to stop Zinfandelling the day away so I could pick up my kids from school.
/s

[draynay]

At least posting misinformation in the covid thread is the fast lane to infractions the way it should be, so we don't have bogus youtube anti-science for very long.

[Biglog]

One lie continuing to be pushed by anti-vaxxers is that the COVID-19 vaccines are 'experimental'. The vaccines have completed testing and have been CDC and FDA approved for quite some time now. We are now almost 18 months from the first vaccine testing. There are 187 MILLION US citizens fully vaccinated, and 2.75 BILLION people worldwide fully vaccinated. So clearly they aren't experimental when billions of people have it (lol), and have had it for quite some time now with proven results that they work AND ARE SAFE. 700,000 Americans have died from COVID, it's real. The pandemic is global and the vaccines from Russia and China vaccines aren't even part of 'Big Pharma', debunking that conspiracy theory too. Just some facts if you are provided misinformation by anti-vaxxers.

[unfilteredJW]

At least posting misinformation in the covid thread is the fast lane to infractions the way it should be, so we don't have bogus youtube anti-science for very long.

Fast lane my ass.

[Forogil]

"book your vaccination if you havent already" is already starting to apply to the vaccinated, how is one supposed to keep up...

By following the government guidelines in the country of residence.

The first step is getting fully vaccinated - that should be straightforward for adults in Europe and N. America - just book now; other regions are slower to get started and might still be working based on priorities. The rules for non-adults differ more.

Booster doses are only relevant some months after getting fully vaccinated, and also vary between countries.

But you don't need to know all the different rules, only the ones that apply to you and your family.

Seatbelt would be an apt analogy for the other covid restrictions like mask, hygiene, social distancing and so on.
You know, the non-invasive stuff, which i am not really against.

Those things are generally less effective than vaccines, and are more similar to following the traffic laws.
And it's not like you have to chose between following traffic laws, wearing seatbelts, or airbag.

Or as some put it: "Do it all!"

"They estimate that for herd immunity to come into effect would require 60% to 70% population vaccinated, so i upped it to 80 to 85"

As previously indicated the Delta-variant moved the herd immunity threshold from perhaps 70% to above 85%.
But I don't know who are quoting, as I didn't think virus-variants gave interviews.

And they are making a netflix documentary about this guy as hes basking in his 1$ mil award money

Who are you talking about?

[beanman12345]

Fast lane my ass.

It's all BS conspiracy theories they saw from meme's on facebook. ain't conspiracies forbidden? ugh this thread sucks.

[PhaelixWW]

"They estimate that for herd immunity to come into effect would require 60% to 70% population vaccinated, so i upped it to 80 to 85"

This is one of those times where, if you actually paid attention to science rather than to the people who ignore it, you might realize that the estimated herd immunity threshold (HIT) comes from a formula which is based on the reproductive number (R0) of the virus.

In the early days of the pandemic, the R0 was estimated at a low/mid value of 2.5-3.5. That still puts it higher than the flu, Ebola, and hepatitis, and accounts for a HIT of 60-71%. Many scientists believed, however, that we weren't seeing the full extent of the virus yet... and we weren't. Later studies showed that there were large amounts of asymptomatic infections in parallel with the more obvious symptomatic ones. This, plus the spread of the beta variant, raised the R0 estimates even more. And now the delta wave is dominant because it's even more transmissible than the original strain.

With delta, scientists estimate an R0 value of 5-7, which puts the HIT at 80-86%.

[Forogil]

One lie continuing to be pushed by anti-vaxxers is that the COVID-19 vaccines are 'experimental'. The vaccines have completed testing and have been CDC and FDA approved for quite some time now. We are now almost 18 months from the first vaccine testing. There are 187 MILLION US citizens fully vaccinated, and 2.75 BILLION people worldwide fully vaccinated.

However, just to be clear:

Most of the 2.75 billion haven't gotten a FDA-approved vaccine; as a large part are in China and India, and China has relied on their own vaccines and India have primarily used their own production of AstraZeneca vaccine and some internal ones. EU has fully vaccinated slightly more with FDA-approved vaccines(*) than the US (and some with AstraZeneca; and a few millions with various other vaccines).

But still at least 400 million people (likely a few additional hundred millions) have gotten FDA-approved vaccines in countries that have health-agencies that strongly follow up possible side-effects and efficiency.

The efficiency of the other ones - in particular the various Chinese ones are less clear; but even if 70% reduction in hospitalization isn't as good at 95% it's still better than 0% from no vaccine. Similarly the reports about side-effects are are also unclear, but since they are mostly traditional vaccines it's unlikely that there are significant issues with them. There are some reports of side-effects from outside China - but nothing major compared to the thousands dying daily of covid-19; and it may also be chance.

And obviously Chinese vaccines don't matter if you are getting vaccinated in the US, or in most EU-countries.

Apart from that the most problematic ones seem to be viral-vector vaccines; for the US only Janssen (or J&J) is FDA-approved so if you are concerned, consider another one.

So clearly they aren't experimental when billions of people have it (lol), and have had it for quite some time now with proven results that they work AND ARE SAFE. 700,000 Americans have died from COVID, it's real. The pandemic is global and the vaccines from Russia and China vaccines aren't even part of 'Big Pharma', debunking that conspiracy theory too. Just some facts if you are provided misinformation by anti-vaxxers.

Yes, the idea that it's a big conspiracy by 'Big Pharma' is just ludicrous - although I've heard stranger conspiracies about the vaccines.

*: Technically approvals are more complicated, ignore that.

[Tuor]

With delta, scientists estimate an R0 value of 5-7, which puts the HIT at 80-86%.

Portugal, my country was the 1st country in the world to achive 85% of the population fully (2 dosis) vaccinated. Meanwhille, after the number of cases falled down, it his already going up as i type this text. Its way higher then 86%, most likely even higher then 90%.

[PhaelixWW]

Portugal, my country was the 1st country in the world to achive 85% of the population fully (2 dosis) vaccinated. Meanwhille, after the number of cases falled down, it his already going up as i type this text. Its way higher then 86%, most likely even higher then 90%.

No, you're forgetting that the vaccine isn't 100% effective. With a vaccine effectiveness below 85%, it's literally impossible to reach an HIT of 85% now.

Posted back in August:

With delta, the HIT is likely around 85-88%.

We still don't have a vaccine for the 12 and under, and they represent more than 15% of our population. Another up to 5% of the population are immuno-compromised and either can't take the vaccine or simply won't have it work for them. That's 20% of the population already that isn't able to take the vaccine right now, even if every single other person were to have taken it.

But even when the vaccine is approved for under 12s, you have to remember that the vaccine isn't 100% effective. It never was, and certainly not now that delta is king. At 70% effectiveness against delta, even if 95% of the population had the vaccine, it would still only amount to around 65% coverage, which is not enough to reach HIT.

So in order to get to the HIT, we'd have to have the full 95% population vaccinated as well as a delta booster that brought the vaccine back up to 90% (and probably more like 95%) effectiveness.

This is simply not going to happen.

While the herd immunity threshold is no longer an attainable goal, every increase in vaccination rate is still very beneficial not only to the person who is thus greatly protected against serious illness or death, but also in the fact that it will slow the transmission of the virus even more to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed like they are and to allow more time for people to get vaccinated.

[Forogil]

This is one of those times where, if you actually paid attention to science rather than to the people who ignore it, you might realize that the estimated herd immunity threshold (HIT) comes from a formula which is based on the reproductive number (R0) of the virus.

In the early days of the pandemic, the R0 was estimated at a low/mid value of 2.5-3.5. That still puts it higher than the flu, Ebola, and hepatitis, and accounts for a HIT of 60-71%. Many scientists believed, however, that we weren't seeing the full extent of the virus yet... and we weren't. Later studies showed that there were large amounts of asymptomatic infections in parallel with the more obvious symptomatic ones. This, plus the spread of the beta variant, raised the R0 estimates even more. And now the delta wave is dominant because it's even more transmissible than the original strain.

With delta, scientists estimate an R0 value of 5-7, which puts the HIT at 80-86%.

True. However, it's based on some simplifying assumptions - in particular assuming that vaccination and spread is "even"; so it's not a strict limit - and similarly R0 doesn't just depend on the virus, but also on other factors (how close people live together - what we see as normal precautions).

Currently children are less vaccinated in most countries - and there are indications that they spread it less, so perhaps reaching HIT among the adults would almost suffice - that requires a different comparison between countries as the demographics differ. On the other hand adults aren't identical either; the elderly are more at risk - and therefore generally more vaccinated, but there are some indications that young adults are more active and spreading it more (some countries even vaccinated the 20-year olds going up in age after first doing the elderly going down in age).

And if the vaccination rate varies geographically or socially there can be large outbreaks even if the country overall is above HIT.

[Hollycakes]

Zinfandelling.

I don't drink but if I did, THIS is how lol.

Sounds like a magical place!

It is weird yea as soon as one monkey gets kicked off the bed, another shows up to bounce.
Planet of the apes is apparently a school of thought now.

The bad grammar and spelling make it so much the better.

[Tuor]

[Rasulis]

Finally, a San Francisco specific serology study.

Sero-epidemiological insights into pathways to COVID-19 immunity

For the study, samples were collected from subjects during routine blood draws between February 4 and February 11 2021, which was a period that covered the first 11 months of the pandemic and also the early phase of the vaccine rollout.

If I remember correctly, vaccination was only for those 55 or older at that time. Total resident vaccinated was 121k (around 13% of total population).

These samples were subjected to two serological assays, one specifically detecting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in response to infections and not due to vaccinations and the other detecting antibodies produced in response to both infection and vaccination.

The study analyzed the test results using Bayesian statistical models and determined the proportion of the population that was seropositive due to natural infection or vaccination and stratified the results based on age, race, and zip codes of residence.

The results from the study revealed that amongst the tested population, 28.2% had any antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and 8.9% had antibodies due to prior infections.

It then went into a long discussion on community health disparity. I'll skip all that.

Though San Francisco reached 80% vaccine coverage amongst its adult population, recently, high incidence of infections have been reported in neighborhoods that showed the lowest vaccine-related immunity and were also badly hit during the initial infection phase.

So the neighborhoods which were hit the hardest during the fall-winter surge, were also hit hardest during summer surge.

A “double burden” was observed during the early phase of pandemic and vaccine rollout in San Francisco. Structural inequalities exist even in a city like San Francisco that has a good public health care system and social safety nets. Apart from identifying disparities, it is also essential to adopt measures to ensure health equity and vaccine coverage.

In San Francisco, the disparities in vulnerable communities for vaccine coverage was addressed through community-academic partnerships. This partnership helped to effectively respond to the pandemic in communities with a vulnerable population and to narrow the gaps in vaccine coverage by creating low-barrier neighborhood vaccination sites.

As we advance towards the problem of waning immunity against COVID-19 that may require booster doses of vaccines, it becomes essential to establish health equity by addressing the disparities. This will ensure efficient allocation and access to resources and health care amongst populations belonging to different socio-economic strata.

In the United States where vaccinations and COVID-19 infections produce different immune responses, serology will serve as a valuable tool to identify disparities. However, careful consideration should be given to the choice of the assay for the serosurvey as each assay is specific to a pathway, and assays that measure overall antibody prevalence may mask differences in infection rates due to infection and vaccination.

Turned out the disparity was not immutable. The City was able to overcome the issue. As shown in the graph below, San Francisco is one of the few cities where vaccination rate within the lowest health quartile communities exceed that of the highest quartile. Very few cities in the US can make that claim.