Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

but this is reality now.

It's not, it's just your weird fantasies about mass murder.

[Mihalik]

SWIFT is a private organization that absolutely does not fancy kicking off players, simply because it's a credibility hit and expedites the creation of alternatives. Double so in case of Russia.

It won't "step 1". Get real.

Swift will do whatever the fuck it's told as soon as the Federal Reserve tells them so.

[Orange Joe]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

To not kill more than would be saved.


Why do you want to kill innocent people so much?

[Gaidax]

Swift will do whatever the fuck it's told as soon as the Federal Reserve tells them so.

Not really.

[Mihalik]

Not really.

Yeah they did the exact same thing with Iran, "We can't kick em" then the US Senate Banking Committee raised an eyebrow and Iran was off SWIFT.

[Gaidax]

Yeah they did the exact same thing with Iran, "We can't kick em" then the US Senate Banking Committee raised an eyebrow and Iran was off SWIFT.

Jokes on you, what they actually did is disconnect specific Iranian banks that fell under specific targeted sanctions as part of unified US/EU sanctions drive. Eventually quite a few of them were reconnected too, so even that was far from actual full disconnection.

Here's the issue for you - in case of Russia, unlike Iran - you have snowball's chance of having that similar action vs Russia, simply because Russia has half of EU's balls clutched in their hands.

It's that simple, bruddah.

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Oh BTW... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-paper-reports

And for the reasons I stated too. So back to the drawing board, bruh.

[Machismo]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

Nope, that's what you said you wanted.

[Gaidax]

Here's what I'm talking about - that is the key there:



US, Germany and the likes can afford to go ham... but what about Bulgaria or Poland or few other EU states that are not quite as rich and are quite dependent on reasonably priced energy.

That's why Russia is a whole other ball game than Iran. Chances of it actually being cut off from SWIFT are VERY low down to non-existent, especially if they simply do what I think they will do.

That is why "durr cut Russia from SWIFT step 1" is just some fool's talk. It can happen, but it will be step 25 if it even comes to that and for that to even be a thing - boy Russia legit would need to roll tanks into Kiev and then some.

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In other words - it's often called "nuclear option" not because it's the first thing to do or an easy thing to do. Pretty obvious.

[Skulltaker]

This is not just saber rattling anymore like in 2019

Yes. That is exactly what it is. They just added some bling. In a couple of weeks, it'll all simmer down, Russia is going to step down, they'll get something for it, the end.

Here's what I'm talking about - that is the key there:



US, Germany and the likes can afford to go ham... but what about Bulgaria or Poland or few other EU states that are not quite as rich and are quite dependent on reasonably priced energy.

Germany might be rich, but many people here are not. We cannot afford not to buy Russian natural gas either.

[Gaidax]

Germany might be rich, but many people here are not. We cannot afford not to buy Russian natural gas either.

Well, true, but Germany is resilient enough economically to cover for that.

It's also a double edged thing for Russia - they can't really afford to stop selling gas either, but they can hit back with agreement renewals on price. Germany can take it, but lets say Bulgaria - not so much.

It's like Russia plays in North Macedonia - they gave it some real real good price for gas due to government being led by a friendly leader. But they also gave that price in a short term agreement until after the elections, so they see if he holds on to the seat and if someone who's anti-Russian comes around, they'd demolish the economy with asking standard price or more for new agreement.

That's Russian play in Europe for quite a while now and the reason why EU won't be unified front for actual harsh sanctions - because effectively quite a few countries there can't afford the very real backlash that hits them right where it hurts.

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These considerations are lost on some of the US posters here, because unlike said countries in EU, they don't really give rats ass about these details.

That's why you have some here "lulz disconnect from SWIFT, ezzz huge sanctions lulz, just press the button"... Easy to talk like that when you're over the pond and the potential backlash won't make you pay double your current electricity bill.

Where as many Eastern Europe counties actually reimagine that guy sweating with two buttons meme.

So Russia will very likely indeed get to get away with "minor incursion" and they have a decent understanding of what they can and can't do. Crimea was a nice test there - that's something they can do. Tanks in Kiev - probably not though. "Separatists" in Mariupol - very likely yes.

The only vague thing for me as to why they'd want just "separatists in Mariupol", but then it could be simply a message to other states in the region that "we can carve you up just like that bit by bit and nobody will protect you, so don't try us by being too "assertive"", while further sowing seeds of discord in Europe/West.

[Jastall]

Well, true, but Germany is resilient enough economically to cover for that.

It's also a double edged thing for Russia - they can't really afford to stop selling gas either, but they can hit back with agreement renewals on price. Germany can take it, but lets say Bulgaria - not so much.

It's like Russia plays in North Macedonia - they gave it some real real good price for gas due to government being led by a friendly leader. But they also gave that price in a short term agreement until after the elections, so they see if he holds on to the seat and if someone who's anti-Russian comes around, they'd demolish the economy with asking standard price or more for new agreement.

That's Russian play in Europe for quite a while now and the reason why EU won't be unified front for actual harsh sanctions - because effectively quite a few countries there can't afford the very real backlash that hits them right where it hurts.

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These considerations are lost on some of the US posters here, because unlike said countries in EU, they don't really give rats ass about these details.

That's why you have some here "lulz disconnect from SWIFT, ezzz huge sanctions lulz, just press the button"... Easy to talk like that when you're over the pond and the potential backlash won't make you pay double your current electricity bill.

Where as many Eastern Europe counties actually reimagine that guy sweating with two buttons meme.

So Russia will very likely indeed get to get away with "minor incursion" and they have a decent understanding of what they can and can't do. Crimea was a nice test there - that's something they can do. Tanks in Kiev - probably not though. "Separatists" in Mariupol - very likely yes.

The only vague thing for me as to why they'd want just "separatists in Mariupol", but then it could be simply a message to other states in the region that "we can carve you up just like that bit by bit and nobody will protect you, so don't try us by being too "assertive"", while further sowing seeds of discord in Europe/West.

It mostly seems lots of effort and attention for little gain for Russia IMO. Crimea I can get, military bases and all that. But nabbing some corner of Buttfuck, Ukraine after years of proxy conflict and a mild but still existent international crisis? It does send a message to its neighbors but frankly anyone bordering Russia already know they can be dicks about it, the USSR is within living memory of most Eastern European politicians after all.

As always with Putin, I think it's mostly internal in motivation. Russia Stronk is a proven way of distracting the populace, as is seeing NATO under their collective beds. The posturing towards the West and bullying of its ex-Republics is just a bonus I think.

[Gaidax]

It mostly seems lots of effort and attention for little gain for Russia IMO. Crimea I can get, military bases and all that. But nabbing some corner of Buttfuck, Ukraine after years of proxy conflict and a mild but still existent international crisis? It does send a message to its neighbors but frankly anyone bordering Russia already know they can be dicks about it, the USSR is within living memory of most Eastern European politicians after all.

As always with Putin, I think it's mostly internal in motivation. Russia Stronk is a proven way of distracting the populace, as is seeing NATO under their collective beds. The posturing towards the West and bullying of its ex-Republics is just a bonus I think.

Maybe second part too, yes, nothing better than the usual dose of "us vs them" for the unwashed masses to rally around the flag.

Overall Putin and co. aren't fools - if they do it, there are some solid and pragmatic reasons to do it from their standpoint.

Besides, as mentioned many times - it's just gathering more cards in their warchest of things to "give up" for the eventual big "reset" agreement with the West.

[Shalcker]

biden said he is thinking removing Russia from SWIFT to be a "bad idea"

SWIFT is known to provide intelligence to US; all this will do is blind you to money flows.

If you disconnect it Russia will activate Russian system (that is ready, working, and serves about 25% of all transactions in Russia atm) and Europe will have no choice but to join it to pay for Russian gas and oil.

Because they cannot afford to stop receiving it. There is not enough spare capacity in the world to replace Russia.

[Gaidax]

SWIFT is known to provide intelligence to US; all this will do is blind you to money flows.

If you disconnect it Russia will activate Russian system (that is ready, working, and serves about 25% of all transactions in Russia atm) and Europe will have no choice but to join it to pay for Russian gas and oil.

Because they cannot afford to stop receiving it. There is not enough spare capacity in the world to replace Russia.

This is also delirious blather, but from the other side.

Problem with Russian SPFS is simply clearing support and I tell you this right now as actually a developer working in 3rd biggest fintech corporation serving hundreds of banks specializing in bank payments and messaging systems.

If Russia would have been disconnected from SWIFT, it would have to resort to using 3rd parties and clearing houses via other messaging means - there are quite a few options. Problem with this is of course mark up and slow processing.

Russia tapping foot and telling others to use SPFS is even more unrealistic than it getting disconnected from SWIFT, simply because nobody really gives a damn about SPFS and such things are not just "lol just use it 4head". Russia can pretty much only strongarm its immediate satellite states for it who have it as their largest trading partner.

Hot example from my actual real experience - it takes up about a year from initial planning to implementation of even simpler case messaging protocols (SWIFT is a messaging protocol in the end).

For example we just completed development of support for a specific country clearing which effectively was SWIFT with some limitations and when I say completed development - boy, if you think CITI, HSBC or about hundred other pretty damn big banks that run on our payments system will get it right now - you're out of whack.

Now now, CITI and HSBC would still be able to process Russian transactions without SWIFT, but by use of proxies as it's often done with non-SWIFT members right now. The way it is done - a proxy which can be a clearing house or financial institution on one end is member of SWIFT and on the other end is member of SPFS. Then they receive message via SWIFT with cover and can forward it to Russia via SPFS. Issue is it costs % fees and often it is 1 day delay on handling transaction.



Version upgrade is a project for newly supported MOP that takes another good 2 years and a dozen millions USD to complete per bank.

And I can tell you right now - CITI and HSBC don't support SPFS simply because we don't support SPFS. So you're out of luck if you think someone will be forced to use SPFS - they simply can't because it's not implemented and not used outside Russia (and nobody gives a damn what you use inside Russia to handle transaction messaging - you could use pigeon mail for all anybody cares) and this is how it is.

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So given this - to even begin working with SPFS, you'd need good 3-4 years for major banks to even receive the capability to do so and what it also means that SPFS clearing membership will be very very rare, meaning all transactions still will be going through 3rd parties - because 90% of the banks won't be able to even afford or get the upgrade as fast.

Dayum, so sad.


But then - nobody is going to disconnect Russia from SWIFT anytime soon. So it's all moot anyway.

[Shalcker]

And I can tell you right now - CITI and HSBC don't support SPFS simply because we don't support SPFS. So you're out of luck if you think someone will be forced to use SPFS - they simply can't because it's not implemented and not used outside Russia (and nobody gives a damn what you use inside Russia to handle transaction messaging - you could use pigeon mail for all anybody cares) and this is how it is.

They got some SPFS-connected branches in Europe (at least in Germany and Switzerland), guess you'll have to use VTB and GazPromBank.

...not that it is going to happen anytime soon, obviously.

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...And, to keep playing "guess what happens next", Russia announces drills in every ocean around it for January and February.

The Russian military announced Thursday plans to hold a series of cross-country naval exercises in January and February as tensions with the West continue to mount over Moscow’s troop buildup near Ukraine.

The drills will stretch across every body of water bordering Russia and involve more than 140 warships, 1,000 pieces of military equipment, 10,000 troops and 60 aircraft.

“The main focus of the exercises is to refine the Navy and Aerospace Forces’ actions to protect Russian national interests in the World Ocean, as well as to counter military threats to Russia from the sea and ocean,” the Defense Ministry said.

It singled out separate drills in the Mediterranean, the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The naval exercises will also take place in the North Sea near the British Isles and Scandinavia, as well as the Sea of Okhotsk near Japan.

The drills are part of the Russian Armed Forces’ 2022 training plan.

Also running joint exercises with China and Iran in Persian Gulf:
The Defense Ministry also announced this week that joint maritime exercises with China and Iran, dubbed CHIRU, will kick off in the Persian Gulf this Friday.

With the countries stepping up their defense cooperation, Russia said it had dispatched the Varyag missile cruiser, the Admiral Tributs large anti-submarine ship and the Boris Butoma sea tanker to Iran’s southernmost port of Chabahar.

The Russian, Chinese and Iranian navies will practice rescuing a burning ship to secure international trade routes and releasing a captured vessel to combat piracy and maritime terrorism in addition to exchanging experience, the state-run TASS news agency reported Thursday, citing Iranian media.

[Jastall]

Maybe second part too, yes, nothing better than the usual dose of "us vs them" for the unwashed masses to rally around the flag.

Overall Putin and co. aren't fools - if they do it, there are some solid and pragmatic reasons to do it from their standpoint.

Besides, as mentioned many times - it's just gathering more cards in their warchest of things to "give up" for the eventual big "reset" agreement with the West.

"All politics is local" may be oversimplifying, but I think it's still mostly true. Maybe 50/50 in this because Russia does want as many advantages as possible in its fight against the West. Then again said fight is at least partially mandated by internal politics itself, much like America's wannabe world police shtick is.

[Ulmita]

Here's what I'm talking about - that is the key there:



US, Germany and the likes can afford to go ham... but what about Bulgaria or Poland or few other EU states that are not quite as rich and are quite dependent on reasonably priced energy.

That's why Russia is a whole other ball game than Iran. Chances of it actually being cut off from SWIFT are VERY low down to non-existent, especially if they simply do what I think they will do.

That is why "durr cut Russia from SWIFT step 1" is just some fool's talk. It can happen, but it will be step 25 if it even comes to that and for that to even be a thing - boy Russia legit would need to roll tanks into Kiev and then some.

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In other words - it's often called "nuclear option" not because it's the first thing to do or an easy thing to do. Pretty obvious.

And it's not just that. If Russia decides to stop cooperating with the West on global issues, there is going to be a huge problem. For example: Russia stops being on the same side with US for the Iran nuke deal, that means that the WHOLE mid east will get destabilized and the security of Israel will be at stakes. The same thing can be said for North Korea and a shitload more places around the world.

Lastly, Russia has made it clear, that kicking them out of swift, is a declaration of war. I don't think that there is a single nation that wants to be in war with Russia. Even if it doesn't actually gets hot at the beginning, we will certainly see counter actions, such as gas and oil prices going through the roof, undersea internet cables and even satellites getting blow up, last gen weapons getting sold to countries that shouldn't have them etc.

From that point on, an all out war will be hard to avoid, and such an event could very easily lead to the complete destruction of at least 3 countries, with hundreds of millions of dead and displaced population, aka the OPs wild dreams coming to life.

There is just one way to resolve this situation: NATO needs to reassure Russia that it won't attack them. It's as simple as that.

[Gaidax]

And it's not just that. If Russia decides to stop cooperating with the West on global issues, there is going to be a huge problem. For example: Russia stops being on the same side with US for the Iran nuke deal, that means that the WHOLE mid east will get destabilized and the security of Israel will be at stakes. The same thing can be said for North Korea and a shitload more places around the world.

Lastly, Russia has made it clear, that kicking them out of swift, is a declaration of war. I don't think that there is a single nation that wants to be in war with Russia. Even if it doesn't actually gets hot at the beginning, we will certainly see counter actions, such as gas and oil prices going through the roof, undersea internet cables and even satellites getting blow up, last gen weapons getting sold to countries that shouldn't have them etc.

From that point on, an all out war will be hard to avoid, and such an event could very easily lead to the complete destruction of at least 3 countries, with hundreds of millions of dead and displaced population, aka the OPs wild dreams coming to life.

There is just one way to resolve this situation: NATO needs to reassure Russia that it won't attack them. It's as simple as that.

As I said previously - this escalation is a double edged sword for Russia. Russia can't really afford to "break the glass", just as much as EU or even US can't afford to go ham.

There won't be any "wars" or overly edgy actions from either side, because the price is just way too high. Russia will do what it can do and get away with it a la "minor incursion" or yet another "popular uprising" in some part of country X style thing they do here and there - which gives them deniability that West is all too happy to grab to not have to commit to sanctions too hard.

And that's all Russia really needs there - simmering without actually boiling over. It accomplishes much for them at low cost. Crimea case of course emboldened Russia to be more adventurous.

Also "NATO needs to reassure Russia it won't attack them" - that's cute really and not what Russia seeks. Russia simply does not want satellite states to completely fall under Western influence, so the one state that made efforts to go there is being made example of, while additionally stalling that progress.

[Shalcker]

Also "NATO needs to reassure Russia it won't attack them" - that's cute really and not what Russia seeks. Russia simply does not want satellite states to completely fall under Western influence, so the one state that made efforts to go there is being made example of, while additionally stalling that progress.

It is simply another case Western double standards - the country on another side of the world is allowed to have military, economic and political influence on Ukraine without any restraints - and noone should be allowed to tell them otherwise!

While the country right across the border apparently cannot.

All while US is unwilling to actually commit to doing what it would take to actually fight for it - "Defending Ukraine till the last Ukrainian" seems to be their main plan.

[Gaidax]

It is simply another case Western double standards - the country on another side of the world is allowed to have military, economic and political influence on Ukraine without any restraints - and noone should be allowed to tell them otherwise!

While the country right across the border apparently cannot.

All while US is unwilling to actually commit to doing what it would take to actually fight for it - "Defending Ukraine till the last Ukrainian" seems to be their main plan.

Dawwww... poor guy Russia, nobody wants to be friends with it of their free will.

Make no mistake buddy, given free choice Ukraine and everyone around you would rush to West, because everyone and their mothers are already tired of Russian bullshit and you don't have anything to offer except for cheap gas and melancholies about Soviet Union for boomers.

So your state media's cries of "double standards" are completely uncalled for.