How bad is inflation in your area?

[Shadowferal]

I think the whole $15/hr minimum wage is now too low. Soon $20/hr won't even be enough.

[Zan15]

You can take a deep sigh of relief for now.

‘Amtrak Joe’ averts rail strike with last-minute deal after months of negotiations

It was fun to watch them scramble yesterday when the deal was announced after they spend the prior 24 blaming Biden for failing to come up with a deal.
Now of course they say Biden did nothing and is not responsible and doesn't control the railroads

[Templar 331]

You think the membership may refuse to ratify the agreement?

Anyway, West Coast Dockworkers is currently negotiating their contract also.

Not sure. There's a lot of grumbling but I wouldn't be surprised either way. I've only hired on this year so I don't really have much of a say either way. Talking with an Engineer today brought up some good points. This job is a big step up for me compared to what I've worked before so I could be okay with the contract. As for him and the rest of the people who've been here for years, they don't like how the raise barely covers cost of living increases along with health insurance increases. And it doesn't take care of attendance policies or scheduling problems the railroad has had since Hunter Harrison took over. That's mostly a problem with corporate management thinking we don't "contribute to profit."

[Khaza-R]

Rent is absolutely sickening where I live.

Mine went up 22% in 1 year.

[Rasulis]

Not sure. There's a lot of grumbling but I wouldn't be surprised either way. I've only hired on this year so I don't really have much of a say either way. Talking with an Engineer today brought up some good points. This job is a big step up for me compared to what I've worked before so I could be okay with the contract. As for him and the rest of the people who've been here for years, they don't like how the raise barely covers cost of living increases along with health insurance increases. And it doesn't take care of attendance policies or scheduling problems the railroad has had since Hunter Harrison took over. That's mostly a problem with corporate management thinking we don't "contribute to profit."

It is my understanding that pay was not the sticking point. They were just getting tired of being put on stand-by 7days a week 24 hours a day.

- - - Updated - - -

It was fun to watch them scramble yesterday when the deal was announced after they spend the prior 24 blaming Biden for failing to come up with a deal.
Now of course they say Biden did nothing and is not responsible and doesn't control the railroads

Biden could be the second coming of Christ, and the GOP would still badmouth him.

[Templar 331]

It is my understanding that pay was not the sticking point. They were just getting tired of being put on stand-by 7days a week 24 hours a day.

- - - Updated - - -



Biden could be the second coming of Christ, and the GOP would still badmouth him.

Pay is a part of it but yeah being on call 24/7 with the only rest you get is 10 hours after you get off the engine is a big deal. We get "scheduled" days off a week but you can easily work through them and not be able to take off till you step off the engine at your home terminal. Which could be a day or two after you were supposed to be off. You can also get two days rest if you work six days straight, but if you don't get a call to work for 24 hours that counter resets. You can still get your scheduled days off, but you run the risk of working into them. I only get one scheduled day because I'm on the extra board.


Like I said, it's a scheduling issue.

[hellhamster]

Some inflation updates:

US:

The new FED meeting is basically confirming that inflation won't go away, they are just keeping debt markets afloat by pushing lukewarm rate hikes. They don't wanna push too hard or equities and debt will eat more shit in a day than they did in the whole past year, and that is cause for game over for most industries and jobs.

Central banks wanna keep inflation relatively high for the foreseeable future, because the alternative is worse. They are basically praying a "supply chain fix" will cool it off before they have to raise rates.

Overall, this is the best case scenario in a shitty situation that they admittedly created in the first place. The only thing that matters right now is jobs, and by doing pretty much the bare minimum, they ensure people can still get their wages even if everything else is skyrocketing. Life will just keep getting progressively more expensive every month, purchasing power and growth are flatlining, and no central bank or higher power has the ability to stop it.

EU:

My prediction of Europe probably facing hyperinflation is unfortunately on rails. Germany announced a whopping 46% YoY producer price index increase yesterday, which is indicative of what is happening to the rest of Europe right now. The euro is also losing parity and freefalling against the dollar. The ECB is scared to raise rates because how feeble the EU bond market is right now, but it may be inevitable. We might see multiple 2010 Greeces in the coming couple of years.

[Fuiking]

Some inflation updates:

US:

The new FED meeting is basically confirming that inflation won't go away, they are just keeping debt markets afloat by pushing lukewarm rate hikes. They don't wanna push too hard or equities and debt will eat more shit in a day than they did in the whole past year, and that is cause for game over for most industries and jobs.

Central banks wanna keep inflation relatively high for the foreseeable future, because the alternative is worse. They are basically praying a "supply chain fix" will cool it off before they have to raise rates.

Overall, this is the best case scenario in a shitty situation that they admittedly created in the first place. The only thing that matters right now is jobs, and by doing pretty much the bare minimum, they ensure people can still get their wages even if everything else is skyrocketing. Life will just keep getting progressively more expensive every month, purchasing power and growth are flatlining, and no central bank or higher power has the ability to stop it.

EU:

My prediction of Europe probably facing hyperinflation is unfortunately on rails. Germany announced a whopping 46% YoY producer price index increase yesterday, which is indicative of what is happening to the rest of Europe right now. The euro is also losing parity and freefalling against the dollar. The ECB is scared to raise rates because how feeble the EU bond market is right now, but it may be inevitable. We might see multiple 2010 Greeces in the coming couple of years.

Only 1 please. Let the Netherlands finally get some awesome karma... hope they reach 1500% inflation which collapses the most useless NATO country in the world.

[hellhamster]

Only 1 please. Let the Netherlands finally get some awesome karma... hope they reach 1500% inflation which collapses the most useless NATO country in the world.

Greek 10 year bond yield is about twice compared to the Dutch one. There is a zero percent chance the Netherlands will collapse before Greece at this point.

South Europe bond yields soaring is something I can understand because of the nature of their economies, but there is also the interesting case of the UK 10 year yield being half a percentage below Italy right now, at 3.5%.

It's like I said in a previous post, every central bank is juggling chainsaws at this point. If they drop one, it's gonna be 2008 all over again, but much, much worse. That sudden increase of bond yields is kinda terrifying to be honest.

[Rasulis]

Strange economic time.

We are supposed to be in a recession. However, we have low unemployment. In fact, close to full employment (3%). Some metro areas unemployment is below 2%.

Compensation is going up.

The increase in interest rates slowed the housing market down. Demand is down. No surprise there since interest rates have more than doubled. However, supply also went down. People with sub 3% interest rates stopped putting their homes on the market. What's the point of selling a home then having to buy a new one at 6% plus interest. In fact, we are seeing a lot of sellers pulling their homes off the market and renting them out instead.

The number of individuals with investable assets of USD 1 million or more (discounting primary residence and retirement) went up. There are now 276,400 ‘high-net-worth individuals’ or ‘HNWIs’ in San Francisco. Up 4% from 2021.

It’s Every Nation for Itself as Dollar Batters Global Currencies

Good for buying imports. Bad if you are trying to export. Good if you are travelling abroad. Craptastic for global economy as nations watched their dollar reserves deplete. US Companies doing international business ended up with lower revenue. Less foreign tourists. Global emerging markets are being battered.

[hellhamster]

Yeah, it's what I constituted before, we have basically everything pointing towards a long stagflationary period for the US, except we don't hit the trifecta due to unemployment being so low. Either companies have adapted and have managed to absorb the higher overhead and overall increased costs by maintaining margins, or there is a lag time and the coffers are healthy for the time being.

Dollar milkshake theory is proven to be correct in this case. In trying times the dollar defines itself as the defacto global currency. This is one of the three main reasons why the rest of the world has much bigger upticks in inflation compared to the US. The second reason is oil and energy due to the war in Ukraine that has affected Europe much more. The third is central banks being apprehensive about raising rates due to how shit the bond market is right now for half of Europe.

Housing is still going strong due to extreme demand despite putting on the brakes since last semester.

Equities and other on risk assets are taking a pummeling that goes hand in hand with dollar dominance. The stronger the dollar becomes compared to the rest of the world's currencies, the worse they get. At one point we have to be afraid of a major sell-off that will trigger another global recession. So far it's been a gradual downslope that most people are still content with because it hasn't affected unemployment yet. Also goes hand in hand with central banks stopping quantitative easing and opting for quantitative tightening, ie sell-offs. Risk for big funds is skyrocketing because of bond yields, at some point they will say fuck it and push the big red button. This is what I'm currently most afraid of.

There is basically no end in sight. The downtrend is here to stay, and people buying before central banks pivot towards QE and inflation halts are asinine.

[Grinning Serpent]

Food...I'm supposed to eat it, it's not supposed to eat me. But food prices make me think hunting/fishing need to be options.

Are those not an option where you live? In the US, it's probably impractical if you live in a dense urban area, since you'll have to add meaningful amounts of travel to reach suitable hunting areas, but in smaller cities and towns, it's not at all uncommon for hunters to take a couple of deer or other game and mostly live off of that (only buying chicken, beef, etc for desire, not necessity) for most of a year. Fishing is also pretty reliable, though not all lakes and rivers are safe to fish in due to pollution.

It's also fairly common to be able to buy venison or other game meats during the appropriate hunting season. There's some restrictions and limitations on it due to food safety requirements, but it's not that hard to source some (officially or "I'll meet you at a QT with an ice chest") and it's often cheaper than buying an equivalent amount of beef would be, at least during deer season.

I just wish soyburgers etc were cheaper than actual beef. It's kind of a weird situation when buying a "fake meat" burger is almost twice as much as a "real meat" burger. I wonder if that's a US thing, since we have such a huge beef culture and business here.

[Rasulis]

Are those not an option where you live? In the US, it's probably impractical if you live in a dense urban area, since you'll have to add meaningful amounts of travel to reach suitable hunting areas, but in smaller cities and towns, it's not at all uncommon for hunters to take a couple of deer or other game and mostly live off of that (only buying chicken, beef, etc for desire, not necessity) for most of a year. Fishing is also pretty reliable, though not all lakes and rivers are safe to fish in due to pollution.

It's also fairly common to be able to buy venison or other game meats during the appropriate hunting season. There's some restrictions and limitations on it due to food safety requirements, but it's not that hard to source some (officially or "I'll meet you at a QT with an ice chest") and it's often cheaper than buying an equivalent amount of beef would be, at least during deer season.

I just wish soyburgers etc were cheaper than actual beef. It's kind of a weird situation when buying a "fake meat" burger is almost twice as much as a "real meat" burger. I wonder if that's a US thing, since we have such a huge beef culture and business here.

Economies of scale. Beef, chicken and pork are big/well-established businesses in the US. Plant-based meat is still relatively new. Plant-based protein production is miniscule compared to that of the livestock industry. Companies are also also still trying to recoup research cost, doing marketing, and building manufacturing and distribution infrastructures.

- - - Updated - - -

Some random thoughts.

On the US job market, PBS/Marist poll indicates that 40% of the respondents changed jobs in the last year. Most for higher paying jobs.

Twenty percent of those were already planning for their next jobs.

The dynamism is in contrast with the job market stasis of the last decade. After 2008 economic meltdown, employees tended to stay with the same employers for longer period of time. Employees were timid about changing jobs. So, this newfound dynamism is good for both employees and the economy. People have a high degree of confident in the job market.

The poll further indicates that 60% of respondents received pay raise. The bad is that inflation increased faster and 30% of the respondents ended up worse financially.

An interesting article from NPR - A dramatic shift at the border as migrants converge on a remote corner of South Texas. The last paragraphs described the US employment situation to the “T.” In essence, the US currently has severe workers shortage. If you want a job, you can get a job. Whether it pays enough is a different story.

Then Albornoz climbed into Valderrama's ATV, and the rancher drove up the hill toward the main highway. Valderrama took out his phone and speed dialed the Border Patrol. A few minutes later, an agent pulled up in a pickup truck. He asked Albornoz a few questions. Albornoz climbed in, and the truck pulled away.

José Albornoz texted a few weeks later from Montana, where he's already found a job in construction.

"I think I'll stay here for a good long time," he said.

[Grinning Serpent]

Yes, pay is the big thing. It's made attracting and retaining quality personnel difficult. I will never fault a person bailing out for a $2 pay raise, but it does make my job more difficult when I suddenly have to cover additional shifts unexpectedly and try to find someone to fill the empty space. It's very, very easy to hire people but difficult to keep them.

And, of course, the corporate accountants don't care, they just want bigger and better numbers to show to their bosses. So increasing base pay or offering meaningful incentives is a no-go.

[Rasulis]

This is weird for a recession.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 108.0 (1985=100), up from 103.6 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 149.6 from 145.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to 80.3 from 75.8.

“Consumer confidence improved in September for the second consecutive month supported in particular by jobs, wages, and declining gas prices,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index rose again, after declining from April through July. The Expectations Index also improved from summer lows, but recession risks nonetheless persist. Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September—prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump—and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year.”

“Meanwhile, purchasing intentions were mixed, with intentions to buy automobiles and big-ticket appliances up, while home purchasing intentions fell. The latter no doubt reflects rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market. Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022, but inflation and interest-rate hikes remain strong headwinds to growth in the short term.”

Locally, there has been a lot of layoffs in the tech sector. However, it appears that the workers that were laid off had no problem getting better jobs. Unemployment numbers for City/County of San Francisco 2022 - Jan - 3.0%, April 2.2%, May 1.9%, June 2.2%, July 2.1%, August 1.9%.

[BeepBoo]

And, of course, the corporate accountants don't care, they just want bigger and better numbers to show to their bosses. So increasing base pay or offering meaningful incentives is a no-go.

Due to the fed rate increases, eventually my hope is investors/owners finally realize they're going to have to share a larger piece of the pie instead of just printing more money to meet demands for higher wages. I really wish they would, because I'm tired of seeing prices on things go up basically month-to-month in noticeable amounts. It's making me stop and consider purchases more. Not because I need to, but out of the principle of "I don't think it's fucking worth it any more even if I want it."

[hellhamster]

Due to the fed rate increases, eventually my hope is investors/owners finally realize they're going to have to share a larger piece of the pie instead of just printing more money to meet demands for higher wages. I really wish they would, because I'm tired of seeing prices on things go up basically month-to-month in noticeable amounts. It's making me stop and consider purchases more. Not because I need to, but out of the principle of "I don't think it's fucking worth it any more even if I want it."

I remember being like this once. Hoping the system isn't rigged, believing in the good of those in power because they care about their people. I was still a uni student and a relatively dumb shit. Then reality crashed the party, my country went to the dogs and I had to migrate to another country to survive. Then I opened my eyes. Word to the wise, don't expect the US to be any different.

They will resume printing as soon as they can, ie when bonds/debt are in real danger, which is close. Why would they sweat trying to procure assets and money through regular means when they can just print a few trillion out the wazoo? Who's gonna be the wiser, the average Joe? He won't understand why he has to pay 30-100% more each year just for groceries, or why he can't afford a house or gas anymore, or why he's becoming unemployed because the stock market is crashing.

I mean shit like this is really fucking scary and I have no fucking idea what is happening anymore:



Bonds should NOT go down with the stock market crashing. They HAVE to start printing soon. The S&P and a certain portion of NASDAQ are still kinda overvalued to warrant a parallel move, but goddamn. Which is why I believe we will either face big inflation, or a long stagflation.

- - - Updated - - -

"Bank of England to buy 65 billion pounds of UK bonds to stem rout"

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...es-2022-09-28/

Lmao, the British are pivoting already. Basically choosing inflation over recession. This is a questionable play, especially since the GBP is currently heeming itself off a cliff.

[BeepBoo]

Choosing inflation is dumb IMO. It encourages people to live at their maximum means without a safety net (or to convert their safety net into actual goods instead of a stockpile of cash) which we know is bad for a number of reasons. It's like forcing everyone to live like a poor person who never gets a chance to save, because why save when all saving is going to do is get your money out-paced by inflation, reducing it's value?

[Rasulis]

Lmao, the British are pivoting already. Basically choosing inflation over recession. This is a questionable play, especially since the GBP is currently heeming itself off a cliff.

They got cold feet. Macroeconomic is fine and dandy on spreadsheets. However, it fails to take into account the human cost. Paul Volcker was widely admired for ending the 1970 US inflation. However, his economic measures, restricting the amount of money in the economy and increasing interest rates, resulted in 11% unemployment in the US because employers were unable to obtain funding. Mortgage interest rates rose to 18%. Many homebuilders went bankrupt because demand for new homes declined sharply. It was brutal.

[BeepBoo]

They got cold feet. Macroeconomic is fine and dandy on spreadsheets. However, it fails to take into account the human cost. Paul Volcker was widely admired for ending the 1970 US inflation. However, his economic measures, restricting the amount of money in the economy and increasing interest rates, resulted in 11% unemployment in the US because employers were unable to obtain funding. Mortgage interest rates rose to 18%. Many homebuilders went bankrupt because demand for new homes declined sharply. It was brutal.

There's a human cost to inflation, too, just one that (on the surface) seems less brutal to some people.