Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Rasulis]

The bottom of the graph says TN has done 45,300 tests, KY has only done 18,797, so that graph isn't based off nearly the same data. I thought we've kind of agreed that more testing is going to find more cases. Kentucky has 2 million fewer people and only 2 cities with over 100k people, while Tennessee has 6.

The number of tests is misleading. Because at the moment they are still not testing everybody. Only those with symptoms. So if the number of people with COVID-19 symptoms in KY is less than TN, KY will have lower number of tests.

[Nellise]

"Despite Illinois-based Abbott Laboratories promising to send the state rapid-response COVID-19 machines that could provide 88,000 tests per month, Pritzker said the federal government has “waylaid” them to private entities, such as private hospitals and labs. 'Unfortunately, it is our understanding now that the federal government redirected most of these early tests to private systems without our state input about where the tests would make the most impact,' the governor said." (source)

Sigh, so now they're taking stuff from states to give to places to make money off this.

The number of tests is misleading. Because at the moment they are still not testing everybody. Only those with symptoms. So if the number of people with COVID-19 symptoms in KY is less than TN, KY will have lower number of tests.

That's only true if they have enough tests and everybody who has symptoms gets tested. We know in many places even people with symptoms weren't getting tested.

[cubby]

and with Trump's rambling stream of words, its like seeing the posts from his supporters here

Right? His word salads are hysterical reading when transcribed.

[Breccia]

In yet more bad news that might already have been posted, but I don't know because for some reason I'm stuck on page 2,081 out of 2,092 (EDIT: as I hoped/guessed/lucked out, the problem went away by me posting this), Pacific Investment Management predicts a 30% GDP contraction in Q2 and 5% total in 2020.

These line up with other estimates I've posted. Except, there's less good news.

The 30% contraction in growth in the second quarter would likely be followed by two quarters of recovery, Wilding wrote. While two quarters of contraction is shorter than the four recorded in the 2008 financial crisis, the depth of the shock is far greater - quarterly contractions did not rise above 8% during that time.

California-based PIMCO is one of the world’s largest investment firms with $1.91 trillion assets under management as of Dec. 31 2019.

“The speed and magnitude of the U.S. labor market disruption has been sharper than any we’ve seen in recent history, suggesting that the decline in overall activity has also likely been much more severe,” wrote Wilding.

In spite of the already enormous spate of layoffs, the number of jobs lost is likely to continue to rise as more states close non-essential businesses. The figures are also expected to rise as unemployment offices work through a backlog of claims. Wilding notes that the government’s March employment report showed that layoffs had begun earlier than suggested by weekly unemployment data, and were spread across industries, including healthcare, which PIMCO had expected to remain resilient.

In spite of the U.S. government’s unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, there are still meaningful risks to the U.S. economy, the post said. The stimulus may not be large or fast enough to prevent waves of bankruptcies, and the pandemic experience may fundamentally change U.S. consumer behavior.

[Orbitus]

Something I seem to recall he lambasted Obama for when bringing someone back to the US during the Ebola(?) outbreak.


Absolutely. IIRC, Mnuchin stopped plans to add places like Italy to the travel ban due to "economic concerns."

When Obama did it, they did it on a special plane. Trump didn't do that.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

I member when docsavage was a moderate... Oh wait he was using that to shield himself from criticism because of fear.

[Orbitus]

-snipped for length-

Not surprising that TJ won't respond to your well thought out thorough debunking of his claims. It is like he went through some Daily Caller/Fox News list of random criticisms considering some of the obscure links he used.

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The Fed waives Wells Fargo's punishment for being caught red-handed cheating, because otherwise they can't make emergency loans.

I'm sure this was a tough call. Let's see if they earn some forgiveness with their second chance.

Trump is probably hoping that if he waves this punishment, he can get a loan from them later when people stop coming to his properties after he is no longer President.

[Sorshen]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1248017643719634945

Trump on why he's promoting unproven drugs as possible coronavirus treatments: "I'm not a doctor, but I'm a person with common sense."

[Dontrike]

Oh really?

Fauci: Early China Travel Ban “Was A Very Smart Move,” Europe Restrictions Are “Ahead Of The Curve”

[video=youtube_share;I03S742XC5w]https://youtu.be/I03S742XC5w[/vido]

Perhaps you're the one who's being "dim" here? Just a thought.

I love how the only thing that you can say Trump did right is the travel ban, but then ignore that it took him too long to do it. Then all you have after that is people disagreed with him on that.

That's it. This is whole argument and think that because Trump did something right months after he should that we should forget all of the other stupid shit.

This is the sole argument of Trumplestiltskins, that people were mean and Trump did something right long after he should have. Yay for your 50th place ribbon when only six people were participating.

[Breccia]

Mitch McConnell tweets:

If we want to act fast, Congress has to focus. There is no realistic chance that another sprawling bill which allocates half a trillion dollars to a number of priorities, even important ones, will be able to pass the Senate or the House by unanimous consent this week.

Ten million Americans were laid off in just the last two weeks. Tomorrow morning will likely bring another historic unemployment figure. This is urgent. If Senators delay this urgent paycheck support to insist on a broader bill, more Americans will lose their jobs unnecessarily.

I hope none of my colleagues object to my request for these urgently-needed funds. There is no reason why this bipartisan job-saving program should be held hostage for other priorities. Let's re-fund the only program that's already running dry and keep moving forward together.

This was news to Schumer, who said McConnell didn't talk to him about this bill. Considering the Democrats have some things they'd like to add for hospitals, food assistance, and state governments. They also want assurances that the money McConnell claims he wants to give to small businesses actually goes to small businesses.

McConnell's tweet is saying no, that's not going to happen. He wants Democrats to give him what he wants, and maybe he'll give them something later. I don't believe he will. I don't think Pelosi or Schumer do, either, because again, McConnell didn't tell them about this vote. Basically, he's saying "The time to be partisan is when I don't want what's on the table. The time to come together is when I do. Also vote for my bill or you hate children and puppies."

McConnell is now in the party of Trump, who does not pay what he's contractually obligated. See also: McConnell tweeted. He will not give Pelosi or Schumer anything they're asking for. The one taking hostages is him. "Give me what I want, or it will be your fault I shoot the old lady I'm holding at gunpoint" is not negotiation.

McConnell is going for one of those "unanimous consent" votes for...some reason, I don't know why. Any one Senator can block it.

[Rasulis]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-as-peak-nears

And federal financial support for drive-through testing appears to be coming to an end, so the locations will be closing.

Why? Because the federal government says that, like with everything else in their response, this isn't their job and the states should handle everything themselves.

This is what leadership doesn't look like.

This is the most inept administration in US history.

HHS: Federal stocks of protective equipment nearly depleted

In contrast, CA is lucky to have this guy as its governor in this difficult time.

California cuts deal for 200 million masks a month for coronavirus medical workers

The deal, which Newsom first announced Tuesday night on MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show,” includes 150 million N95 respirator masks and 50 million surgical masks per month.

“We’ve been competing against other states, against other nations, against our own federal government,” Newsom told Maddow. “We’re not waiting around any longer, and we’re no longer interested in the progress that we were seeing in the past."

Mark Ghilarducci, director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, said Wednesday that experience responding to wildfires and other disasters had prepared the state to build a “more sustainable pipeline of resources.”

The masks will come from a mix of nonprofit organizations, including Direct Relief, Americares and the California Endowment; contracts with large vendors including Bear Mountain Development Co. and McKesson; and a partnership with BYD North America, the Los Angeles-based arm of a Chinese automaker that has built electric buses for the state.

California is also set to begin using a technology, developed by the defense manufacturer Battelle, that will enable hospitals to sterilize and reuse N95 masks more than 20 times. Ghilarducci said that within the next week, a state-run center will have the ability to clean as many as 80,000 masks a day.

On Tuesday, Newsom said stay-at-home measures were not only bending but also “stretching” the curve of infections, meaning that state public health officials anticipate the spread of the virus will not peak until the end of May. His administration has been preparing to set up 50,000 additional hospital beds, bring in tens of thousands of retired medical workers and students to treat patients, and acquire 10,000 more ventilators by the end of April.

[Breccia]

HHS: Federal stocks of protective equipment nearly depleted

What? Not Jared Kushner's personal stock that he owns!

[Rasulis]

What? Not Jared Kushner's personal stock that he owns!

House Oversight Chairwoman Carolyn B. Maloney, D-N.Y. said in a statement that the Trump administration is leaving states to scour the open market for scarce supplies, often competing with each other and federal agencies in a chaotic bidding war that drives up prices.

“The President failed to bring in FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) early on, failed to name a national commander for this crisis, and failed to fully utilize the authorities Congress gave him under the Defense Production Act to procure and manage the distribution of critical supplies," Maloney said. “He must take action now to address these deficiencies.”

Federal contracting records show HHS made a $4.8 million order of N95 masks on March 12, followed by a $173 million order on March 21. But those contracts don’t require the manufacturer to start making deliveries to the national stockpile until the end of April, after the White House has projected the pandemic will reach its peak.

“FEMA, the military, what they’ve done is a miracle,” Trump said . “What they’ve done is a miracle in getting all of this stuff. What they have done for states is incredible.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the president of the United States, the Greatest Carny Huckster in the world. Half of US population actually bought his bullshit.

[Masark]

What? Not Jared Kushner's personal stock that he owns!

Don't worry, he has a plan to replenish it.

[Breccia]

We have more info on Trump's brand of snake oil...okay that's unfair. On hydroxychloroquine, a drug known to help with diseases that aren't coronaviruses.

And...yeah.

The federal government's guidance on emergency usage of the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 patients may have actually set the medication up for failure.

That's because the guidance limits the drug's usage to those sick enough to be hospitalized. Many doctors suspect, however, that if the drug does turn out to be beneficial, it may work better early on in the course of the illness.

"That's the case for any therapeutic," Dr. George Diaz, an infectious disease specialist at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington, said. "Generally the earlier you use it, the more effective it is."

And COVID-19 has a lengthy incubation time. Those two features, at once, make a very narrow Venn Diagram of "drug helps".

Antiviral treatments work by reducing the amount of virus in the body. They're best given early on, as symptoms are starting and the viral load is still low. For example, Tamiflu, an antiviral used to treat the flu, works better the earlier a person takes it.

"When you give it to somebody who is already super sick, it's likely not going to make an impact because the damage is already done," said Dr. Ken Lyn-Kew, a pulmonologist in the critical care department at National Jewish Health, a hospital in Denver.

At least anecdotally

That's right, the next part is anecdotal. Normally I would not include such, but if Team Trump and the rabid fanbase are pushing for the drug because of anecdotal evidence, that means they have to accept anecdotal evidence it doesn't work. Sorry. I don't make the rules. I just see to it they're enforced.

a handful of critical care physicians across the country have told NBC News they've seen no evidence the drug is helping their sickest patients in intensive care.

"We've been using it," said Dr. Hugh Cassiere, a pulmonologist and medical director of Respiratory Care Services at North Shore University Hospital in Long Island, New York, a hot spot for the pandemic in the United States. "But we really haven't seen any efficacy."

"I'm not convinced it works," said Lyn-Kew, adding, "I've not seen anybody have anything near what I would call a miraculous recovery because of hydroxychloroquine."

In Louisiana, Dr. Josh Denson, a pulmonary medicine and critical care physician at the Tulane University Medical Center in New Orleans, said that "many patients do fine and tolerate it, but I don't think it's making a difference."

"We're using it; it's all we have," Denson added. Louisiana has also been hit hard by the coronavirus, with at least 16,284 cases and 582 deaths.

"I can't honestly say that I think that it's necessarily an effective agent at this point," said Diaz, of the Providence Regional Medical Center in Washington state. Diaz was involved in the treatment of the first patient in the U.S. diagnosed with the coronavirus.

Now remember, we have some no-control-group studies saying that people took the drug, then they got better. The linked article goes into more detail on what happened so far and what's happening now with regard to studies.

But the time it takes to run a side-by-side drug-vs-placebo (yes, this is happening, yes, New York is leading the charge) and run the results is substantial. Useful results, if there are useful results, might help with the second wave or future seasonal outbreaks, but the death count is supposed to peak now.

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And now it's 12,895

Total stands at 14,817. That's...just shy of 2,000 and a relatively similar rate to yesterday.

Where's that inflection point?

[Thepersona]

Who would have thought that the turtle is a devotee of khorne? i certainly wouldnt, i always saw him as more of a tzeentchian daemon

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-8999th-judge/

[Breccia]

Hey remember how we were talking about some kind of rent assistance or forgiveness program? As in, that never happened?

As of April 5, 31% of renters hadn't paid their rent yet.

It was 19% last month, just so you have context.

Different states have different squatter's rules, and hopefully that rent will eventually be paid. Until then, I guess those renters and their landlords can hope for those relief checks to get moving.

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Insurance is a legal form of gambling, at least, mathematically speaking. It's why things like burning down your own house don't pay out. You're cheating.

There is a reason your insurance probably doesn't cover a meteor strike. That's because, while a small chunk of rock going through your roof is one thing, a city-flattening blast that doesn't directly impact your house does not (no really, it doesn't). And quite frankly, considering such a blast would be 9/11 levels of suckfest for the insurers as they filled in thousands of claims at once, it's safe to assume they have loopholes in the fine print for that kind of thing, on the off chance it happens. And insurers typically don't cover floods, because if one house is hit by a flood, so are dozens, hundreds, or thousands nearby. That's why the US govt handles it -- nobody else has enough money.

Health insurance and pandemics don't work the same way. And they're begging for help.

Insurance coverage works by spreading risk, but that model simply cannot account for a situation in which losses are catastrophic and nearly universal. Standard business interruption policies do not, and were not designed to, provide coverage against communicable diseases such as COVID-19, and as such, were not actuarially priced to do so.

Our organizations stand ready to work with Congress on solutions that provide the necessary relief as soon as possible. The loan programs instituted by the CARES Act provide a down payment on economic support for Main Street businesses, but additional liquidity will be required for impaired industries and businesses to avoid an unprecedented systemic, economic crisis

Now here's the thing: I do not believe health insurance agencies can refuse to pay. Not just because Trump said they'd pay, but because I don't think there's a meteor loophole. Hospitals didn't get hit in 9/11 the way other insurance companies were, nor do they typically have floods and earthquakes ruining their day. So basically, they're saying what we heard in W's crash of 2008: "We are too big to fail. Give us money."

Oh, and there's a thing called "business interruption insurance". Here is Allstate's page on the topic, just to pick a name at random. Guess what else is likely strained to the breaking point?

I am of two minds here. One, insurance companies basically make their money like a large legal mandated casino. I don't mind it on a moral standpoint when they wake up and realize they didn't rig the roulette table hard enough, and now they're losing money. Two, problem is, if they run out of money then honest customers are denied the payouts their premiums have gone towards for years.

Neither bill being discussed right now directly refers to either situation. Expect more from this eventually. The COVID meteor has made a particularly wide shockwave.

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Trump's numbers aren't adding up.

"Gee, there's a news flash."

Shh. Trump is claiming far more money has been distributed to small businesses, than small businesses have actually received.

Trump administration officials say that tens of billions of dollars have already poured into small businesses under a new federal program to tide them over during the economic crash caused by the coronavirus. Yet there is little evidence that funds are flowing as robustly as claimed.

Bankers and small business owners told CBS MoneyWatch that the government initiative, dubbed the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), has provided little financial relief so far at a time many employers are in urgent need of funds to pay workers, landlords, suppliers and other expenses.

Vice President Mike Pence on Tuesday tweeted that over $71 billion had been "disbursed" through the Paycheck Protection Program and that the government is "working to ensure that small businesses have the support they need as we face this crisis together."

The average PPP loan that small business borrowers are seeking is nearly $170,000, according to numbers from Bank of America, which as of Tuesday morning was processing some 212,000 applications seeking a total of $36 billion. Based on that large sample from one bank, the vice president's tweet suggests that just over 420,000 small businesses have received PPP loans.

A spokesperson from the U.S. Small Business Administration declined to comment on Pence's tweet or the accuracy of his figures. The SBA said it only has data on the number of loans the agency has approved: "100,000-plus approved loans valued at more than $30 billion," an SBA spokesperson said by email.

"Approved loans, originated loans, processed loans, funded loans — all mean the same thing and can be used interchangeably," the spokesperson said. The agency does not track the amount of money that banks have loaned under the program.

A source close to the National Federation of Independent Business, a small business advocacy group, said the organization has no evidence that any of its hundreds of thousands of members have received funds. The source has heard anecdotally that businesses have yet to receive the money despite being approved for loans.

And part of the reason is because, duh, banks are hesitant to throw away their money with no hope of getting it back.

First Bank, a community and small business lender in Hamilton, New Jersey, said it started taking applications for PPP loans and submitting borrower information to the SBA on Friday. So far, 50 loans have been approved.

But First Bank CEO Patrick Ryan said the company has yet to make a single loan under the program. He attributed the hold-up to the SBA having yet to issue a legal document, known as a promissory note, required to close the loan.

Without a signed promissory note, Ryan said it wasn't clear the SBA would guarantee the loans and that banks could end up on the hook if borrowers aren't able to pay them back. On top of that, the SBA could force the bank to redo the loan, putting the bank's small business borrower to the back of what has become a very crowded line for the loans.

Ryan said he expects the SBA to issue the final paperwork by the end of the week. After that, it would probably take another few days before he could begin making loans.

"Some banks may have gone ahead and made loans, but I would be reluctant to do that," he said. "The SBA has rules. Had we moved forward, the loans might have not qualified. It's not something I would recommend."

Now some would suggest the reason for the delay is that banks are overwhelmed. Maybe. But that does not excuse Team Trump from making shit up about how many people they've helped.

[Zaydin]

In other news: genetic researchers have determined where most of New York Cities cases of COVID-19 originated from: Europe, not Asia.

As a reminder, Trump didn't restrict travel with Europe until March 14, a month and a half after his travel restrictions with China. So at least in New Yorks case, Trumps travel restrictions with China didn't help much.

[Trifle]

Insurance is a legal form of gambling, at least, mathematically speaking. It's why things like burning down your own house don't pay out. You're cheating.

There is a reason your insurance probably doesn't cover a meteor strike. That's because, while a small chunk of rock going through your roof is one thing, a city-flattening blast that doesn't directly impact your house does not (no really, it doesn't). And quite frankly, considering such a blast would be 9/11 levels of suckfest for the insurers as they filled in thousands of claims at once, it's safe to assume they have loopholes in the fine print for that kind of thing, on the off chance it happens. And insurers typically don't cover floods, because if one house is hit by a flood, so are dozens, hundreds, or thousands nearby. That's why the US govt handles it -- nobody else has enough money.

Health insurance and pandemics don't work the same way. And they're begging for help.

Now here's the thing: I do not believe health insurance agencies can refuse to pay. Not just because Trump said they'd pay, but because I don't think there's a meteor loophole. Hospitals didn't get hit in 9/11 the way other insurance companies were, nor do they typically have floods and earthquakes ruining their day. So basically, they're saying what we heard in W's crash of 2008: "We are too big to fail. Give us money."

I believe that insurance company payouts are meant to come from that year's premiums, so the risk is only spread over their customer base, rather than being spread over their customer base over time. Which means that a single big event like this does really hurt them even if they've made a huge profit other years.

They can mitigate this with reinsurance to spread the loss to other providers... this helps a lot with regional events such as earthquakes, floods etc. Worldwide pandemics maybe not so much.

[Benggaul]

Nearly 15k deaths now in the US due to COVID-19. Blew right past that 12k talking point and barreling towards the fake 17k talking point. I really, really wish it wasn't taking something so drastic to prove how big a fucking liar he is.