Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Egomaniac]

Because it seems like a pointless question. Why would I be happy if I'm wrong about Trump, given what we can expect if he is re-elected?

You do you, but it seems to me you're harassing people for having more confidence than you are on this specific topic, even after they admit that indeed, yes, it's possible Trump can win.

I'm "harrassing" people because they're being over-confident and acting like they've already won.

And, if you go through the posts, you'll see a lot of people telling me that, in actual fact, he can't win.

[Egomaniac]

As you tell others, don't play victim. Yes, I'm being snarky.

I'm only responding because you don't seem to like it when someone expresses more confidence in his ability to lose than you. Just let them have their opinion, IMO.

Here's a sample:

You must not really be paying attention, considering Trump's speeches lately have been dementia rants about how he beat Bush Jr and Obama in the 2016 election, among other random ramblings that just plain don't make sense. On top of the, you know, mounting federal feloinies that once unsealed for the public are probably going to make him flat out unelectable.

"Flat out unelectable"

Does that seem to be taking Trump's chances of winning seriously to you?

[Egomaniac]

Counter-argument:

Counter-argument to your counter -argument

Nobody is saying that Trump cannot win.

Just provided evidence someone saying exactly that.

[Egomaniac]

Ok, point conceded as it pertains to Cthulu(the argument you presented that argues Trump can't win).

What about gondrin? postman? Me?

Here's my thing - why exactly does it matter so much if they disagree with you? We're on the 3rd page of discussing a difference of opinion because you're asking all of us if we'd be happy if we were proven wrong(even though we're not attempting to prove anything). Since there's little moderation on this subforum because there's not enough resources for moderation, can you not see how you(and now me, unfortunately) are de-railing? Or contrarian for contrarian's sake?

IMO, people can have opinions, even Cthulu. You 2 disagree on the confidence on the electability of Trump. Won't be the last time. But why do it for 3+ pages?

I'm just going to say this again

I just don't want to see the same level of "Trump can't win" complacency that we saw in 2016. That's my Tedtalk.

[Egomaniac]

Based on the turnout in 2020, you'd have to be pretty convinced that there's not a sizeable number of potential voters in 2024 that will look at Trump next year and say "eh, he seems like a competent guy, I'll give him a shot this time". These last 6 years have given us way more Trump visibility than any of us ever wanted.

My point isn't that he's going to find new voters. My point is that 2024 might not have the same level of turnout that 2020 did.

Also, Biden's numbers aren't as good now as they were in 2020 either.

The only thing in favor of Trump right now are polls. And I'm losing faith in them. I think there's a sliver of truth in most of them still, but deducing any kind of discernible outcome from them anymore is getting more and more difficult each year.

Sure, polls aren't going to predict the future... but they do indicate that Trump's chances are more credible than the "slim chance of victory" people are talking about.

Besides all that, I don't have any problem with you not being convinced that he'll lose. I disagree but your supporting facts are a concern I think we all have.

I'm just not seeing any supporting facts that say his chances of winning are as low as you guys kep claiming.

I only spoke up because you were responding to every poster with the same question and I still don't quite understand why. If it was to make the point that I'm replying to, you have to admit it's hard to infer that was your point when you would continually ask if we'd be happy if Trump won.

I laid it all out days ago

I'm not saying Trump is going to win. I'm saying don't sit there comfortably thinking that he can't. Don't put your faith that no one is going to vote for him because he's under indictment. Trump doesn't need the popular vote...he just needs the right votes in the right places.

Yes,, Hillary was probably going to win until...

There's always uncertainty with "probably". There's always the possibility for another "until".

I look at it this way

Take what I'm saying and let's generate some examples

1) I'm wrong, Trump has no chance to win at all and no one takes it seriously. Trump loses.
2) I'm wrong, Trump has no chance to win at all but everyone takes it seriously. Trump loses. Probably in a humilating fashion.
3) I'm right, Trump has a very real chance of winning but no one takes it seriously. Trump Wins.
4) I'm right, Trump has a very real chance of winning and everyone takes me seriously. Trump Loses.

Of those 4 options (and I realize those aren't the only options... but bear with me anyway) only one of those ends up with Trump winning.

Don't start celebrating until you've actually won. That's my whole thing. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

[Egomaniac]

What's your goal here? That we all agree with you?

Supporting facts for why we believe Trump will lose are littered throughout the discussion.

I already told you my goal.

I just don't want to see the same level of "Trump can't win" complacency that we saw in 2016.

Haven't seen many supporting facts that say that Trump has significantly lost voters since 2020. I've seen people present that argument like it was a fact...but I point at the polls that show Biden and Trump in a statistical tie (or worse) and all I get is "I don't really trust polls".

Sell me on why you think Trump's chances are so low.

[Egomaniac]

You haven't shown any supporting facts that Trump has significantly gained voters since 2020, either.

Good thing I've never made that claim then.

And that's the problem - none of us have many supporting facts for an election that won't happen for more than a year. Both parties' opinions are educated guesses. The only information we have are polls, and that's not a representation of the actual election.

Which is why I keep on saying not to pop the champagne just yet.

1) 2020 was hands down the absolute worst year in my 49 year lifetime. I'm 100% confident I'm not in the minority with that statement. The 2020 election meant a great deal to alot of people, and we saw that bear out with the turnout. That explains the massive numbers for both sides.

Massive numbers for both sides in 2020 doesn't mean anything in 2024.

2) Yes, Trump got more votes in 2020 than 2016. But also yes, you have to concede that Biden got even more in 2020 than Hillary in 2016. If you want to discount that fact, yours must also be discounted. For the same reasons.

I don't want to discount that fact. I've stated that fact myself a few times in this thread.

3) Trump never held a position in government before 2016.

Where's the argument here? What supporting facts are you presenting?

4) January 6th.

Again, not an argument. I might as well just say "Hunter Biden"

5) All the shenanigans post-election.

None of which have shown that's he's actually lost support. Even getting hit with criminal charges haven't dropped his polling numbers.

There's probably more, but since none of these points are proof he's lost voters, you might dismiss them.

Yes, I would dismiss these points...they aren't saying anything

But I'll say again, if you can show me proof that he's gained voters over his high-water mark in 2020, or that Biden has lost enough voters to drop below Trump's high-water mark in 2020, then I'll be forced to reconsider my position.

I don't need to. The popular vote doesn't decide elections. Trump lost the PV in 2016 too. How'd that one work out again?

Let me link you an article from NPR:

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/94068...the-presidency

But here's the TLDR

The tight races in the trio of states had a big electoral impact. As NPR's Domenico Montanaro has put it, "just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College."

So it's not assumed because I didn't mention it, I'll also mention that me thinking Trump won't win doesn't mean that Biden will get 538 electoral votes with Trump humiliated even in the Deep South. My appeal to keep "Trump losing" in perspective. It will be closer than any of us want, given the current political environment, but it should be pretty similar to 2020, assuming it's Trump v Biden again.

Now, keeping that 44K votes factoid in mind, how good do you feel about "pretty similar"? Cuz I don't feel too good about it at all.

[Shadowferal]

It's wise to keep the possibility of a Trump win.
But this isn't 2016. He isn't unknown. Hes a known felon now. And unlike then, he currently doesn't have the support of the RNC. If that changes then Trump's chances improve.

[Egomaniac]

Why are my facts held to a higher standard than yours?

They aren't. You're ascribing positions to me that I haven't taken.

The converse argument of "proof of significantly lost voters" is "proof of significantly gained voters", which is absolutely required to overcome his loss margin in 2020.

No it isn't. You're assuming that people have to vote for one or the other. "Neither" is an option.

History supports my argument. Since people got to see this idiot in office, their opinion of him changed. He was hailed as an outsider. He's no longer an outsider.

I'll remind you again that over 10 million more people voted for him AFTER they saw "this idiot in office". That's what history actually shows.

Expressing our opinion that we think Trump isn't going to win isn't celebrating before the fact. Keep things in perspective, man.

Again, I will go back to people using terms like "Slim chance" and "unelectable". Your argument has been more reasoned....you have stated that it will be "closer than we would like".

Then use your own logic. These two statements are contradictory. If your argument is that Trump got 10 million more votes in 2020 than 2016, your argument bakes in the massive numbers you're using as support for your argument.

Again, those numbers are just to show that Trump gained votes after being in office for 4 years... countering the repeated suggestion that he LOST support in 2020. Yes, you can also make a similar argument for Biden doing better than Hillary.

Combine this with our stupidly fucked up voting process where the most politically active("the base") get to choose a single person from many all to satisfy some stupid arbitrary requirement that each party has. Why can't there be multiple Democrat/Republican/whatever candidates in the general election?

I mean, I can agree with you here...but it's a different can of worms.

Now? We all know who he is, what he stands for, and most importantly, he has an actual track record of his deeds while in office. He doesn't have that angle anymore.

A track record that gained him 10 million more votes.

Not an argument you'll accept, you mean. If you think all 74 million voters that voted for Trump watched what happened on January 6th, and said "Yeah! That's what I wanted in a president!", then I don't know what to say. You could argue that voters that didn't vote for Trump before switched to him after watching what happened January 6th, but that assumes that a majority of people in this country supported Trump after Jan 6. Maybe you're right, and our country is super fucked up. You have no proof, using your rules for what determines proof, that this argument has merit.

I haven't seen any evidence that it has driven his voters off. You're using an emotional tact here.

He has to gain support to win again, if we're allowing that Biden hasn't lost voters as well. It's a bit of zero-sum game in my book.

Have you looked at Biden's numbers recently? He's not as popular as he was in 2020.

Then don't use facts regarding 2016 votes to support your opinion. You have to apply the same standards to your facts that you apply to mine.

The only facts I 've used regarding 2016 is to counter the position that Trump lost support in 2020. Other than that, I've said, in this thread on a few occassions, that the popular vote doesn't really matter.

Me providing a history of Trump as president, and the objectively awful things he did, doesn't seem to compel you in the slightest that Trump has lost voters.

The objectively awful things that he did that got him 10 million more votes than he had gotten 4 years previously? That's the opposite of compelling evidence that he has lost voters.

But if objective facts like "January 6th was bad" aren't acceptable to you, my anecdotes aren't either.

January 6 was bad. That's an objective fact. And yet you still have Republicans in Congress defending both Trump and the people that attacked the Capitol. You've got right-wing news networks and mouth-pieces calling these traitors "patriots".

Anecdotes are never very compelling evidence. You are no more swayed by mine than I am yours.

- - - Updated - - -

It's wise to keep the possibility of a Trump win.
But this isn't 2016. He isn't unknown. Hes a known felon now.

He is not a known felon. He's an alleged felon. He has yet to be convicted.

This is kind of the perfect example of celebrating the win too early.

And unlike then, he currently doesn't have the support of the RNC. If that changes then Trump's chances improve.

And when did the RNC withdraw their support?

[Shadowferal]

And when did the RNC withdraw their support?

There's no support to withdraw on any of the candidates. He has to win the primary first. He also has to stay out of jail.

[Egomaniac]

There's no support to withdraw on any of the candidates. He has to win the primary first.

Well, that just puts him back where he was in 2016 before he got the nom.

He also has to stay out of jail.

Sure, but none of his criminal trials have even started yet...so I'll just repeat my previous cautions about celebrating before the win.

[Flarelaine]

It's wise to keep the possibility of a Trump win.
But this isn't 2016. He isn't unknown. Hes a known felon now. And unlike then, he currently doesn't have the support of the RNC. If that changes then Trump's chances improve.

Being a felon is what turns his voters on. And the RNC will fall in line.

[Cthulhu 2020]

But he still got ~10 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Maybe you'll answer the question that nobody else will.

Would you be as happy to be proven wrong as I would be?

Of course I'd be happy for Trump to not win. But here's possibly a lukewarm take: Donald Trump losing and going to jail isn't some panacea for our country's problems. The Trump conservatives aren't just going to look at their felonious leader and go "Man, we need to do some serious reflection about our beliefs."

The American right is DEEPLY ill, and holding Donald Trump accountable is the bare minimum, it's the starting point. It's a simple beginning. And honestly, part of me wants him to win so that we can get the bloody revolution over with after he makes a mockery of our democracy. It would be a relatively quick was to get rid of the cancer that is the alt right who festers in the corners of the internet and spreads racist, bigoted, and sexist malarky. This is the 1920's all over again, and a 1939 happening in a decade, while tragic would at least see the world unite against a fascist America and beat the fascists into a pulp once more, pushing them back underground for another 100 years until history once again repeats itself in 2123.

But personally, I prefer the non violent way. What is that you ask? IDK, most of these people are deeply white supremacist and there's seemingly no cure. But charging and shaming every single one of their leaders for crimes committed is a start.

- - - Updated - - -

Also like, anyone who's been at all paying at least a little attention to conservative media knows that the tide is starting to turn, and many big Republican icons are turning on Trump. His staunch allies (people he committed crimes with) are still on his side, but Republicans are finally starting to realize just how toxic he is for their brand with the unhinged shit he's saying lately.

If Republicans turning on Trump and Trump going on unhinged rants about executing people who betray him gets him elected, this country is over.

[Gorsameth]

Of course I'd be happy for Trump to not win. But here's possibly a lukewarm take: Donald Trump losing and going to jail isn't some panacea for our country's problems. The Trump conservatives aren't just going to look at their felonious leader and go "Man, we need to do some serious reflection about our beliefs."

The American right is DEEPLY ill, and holding Donald Trump accountable is the bare minimum, it's the starting point. It's a simple beginning. And honestly, part of me wants him to win so that we can get the bloody revolution over with after he makes a mockery of our democracy. It would be a relatively quick was to get rid of the cancer that is the alt right who festers in the corners of the internet and spreads racist, bigoted, and sexist malarky. This is the 1920's all over again, and a 1939 happening in a decade, while tragic would at least see the world unite against a fascist America and beat the fascists into a pulp once more, pushing them back underground for another 100 years until history once again repeats itself in 2123.

But personally, I prefer the non violent way. What is that you ask? IDK, most of these people are deeply white supremacist and there's seemingly no cure. But charging and shaming every single one of their leaders for crimes committed is a start.

- - - Updated - - -

Also like, anyone who's been at all paying at least a little attention to conservative media knows that the tide is starting to turn, and many big Republican icons are turning on Trump. His staunch allies (people he committed crimes with) are still on his side, but Republicans are finally starting to realize just how toxic he is for their brand with the unhinged shit he's saying lately.

If Republicans turning on Trump and Trump going on unhinged rants about executing people who betray him gets him elected, this country is over.

Are they openly and publicly talking about how Trump tried to end Democracy in the US and overthrow the government? Are they openly and accurately reporting on the many lawsuits for election interference?

Or are they still pussyfooting around trying to gently steer their base away from Trump without pissing them off by confronting them with the reality that they have become a party of fascists?

I say to little to late.
The GOP is still not remotely ready to deal with reality and change their ways.

[Ivanstone]

It's anecdotal but I'm seeing this trend here in my neck of the woods in Alabama. GOP folks I know are either in 2 camps. One camp is currently in the "I don't support him but I do support his policies" phase of regret, the other camp is utterly disgusted with what's happened since January 6th. Like actual shame and feelings of betrayal. Does that mean they'll vote for Biden? LOL fuck no that's a bridge too far for them. Most told me they'll just stay at home, or vote 3rd party(even though I tell them voting 3rd party basically elects Trump). Either way, that's lost voters because the name is now too toxic.

Regarding Team Digust:
They voted for Trump knowing he's a fuck up.
They voted for Trump knowing he's a sex offender and a racist.
They voted for Romney even though he's a clueless plutocrat and a "fake" Christian.
They voted for McCain even though his party drove the economy off the cliff and started two wars.
They voted for Shrub because... Well I'll give them this one. He's still an idiot but the wars at that time looked semi-legitimate.
They voted for Shrub even though he's a dopey frat boy born with a silver spoon in his wealth.
They voted for... well I'm not sure about this one. They post-CRA re-alignment wasn't complete yet. Slick Willy is slick. Dole still manages to come off decently despite being a Helms Republican.

To top off your local specifics:
They vote for Alabama GOP even though the lot of them are fucking useless on top of having shitty policies.

Trump can still win. The usual idiots will hold their noise and press "R". Something dumb happening two weeks before election day can still give it to him.

[The Stormbringer]

Plus he's already a convicted rapist. Not that conservatives care about any of this, but I have to reitarate - we don't care how riled up the base is. It's the centrists/moderates that matter.

This is, unfortunately, false. He was not "convicted", because you can only be convicted of a crime, and he lost a civil case. He never went to court over criminal rape charges. Saying he's a convicted rapist is unfortunately inaccurate language, and righties who actually know a little about law will throw that in your face repeatedly if you try to use it. EDIT: (And they'll say it invalidates all the rest of your argument too, because they're petty and pedantic like that)

[gondrin]

I'll remind you again that over 10 million more people voted for him AFTER they saw "this idiot in office". That's what history actually shows.

Yes, 10 million more people voted for him. Even more voted for Biden. It was a record year for turnout which will more than likely happen again if Trump, or any of the crazy brigade is picked, is nominated for the Republican candidate. One will be because abortion will be a massive push against the GOP. We have seen it for the past couple of years that it literally was a Looney Tunes Acme bomb blowing up in their face and will continue to do so until abortion is legal across all 50 states again.

Again, I will go back to people using terms like "Slim chance" and "unelectable". Your argument has been more reasoned....you have stated that it will be "closer than we would like".

He does have a slim chance of winning like he had a slim chance of winning in 2020. Hell, it should have been a massive landslide in 2020 FOR Trump because Presidents normally win majorly due to catastrophes that happen on their watch. Trump is one of the few that fumbled that mess. His slim chance doesn't mean that he cannot win, just that it will be a lot harder for him to win than in 2016 and especially 2020 as everything that is happening to him will be blasted constantly UNTIL election day.

Again, those numbers are just to show that Trump gained votes after being in office for 4 years... countering the repeated suggestion that he LOST support in 2020. Yes, you can also make a similar argument for Biden doing better than Hillary.

He literally lost the support of a lot of middle class suburban women with the fact he nominated SC Justices that overturned Roe V Wade. They were a sizable voting base for him in 2016 and 2020. Will Trump get a lot of vote? Probably. But after Jan 6, RVW being overturned and other facets, his support will be the same as it usually is, the far right base and others that only vote party. The rest that normally would for Trump will now literally not vote for a president. That means no vote for either Dem or Rep.

A track record that gained him 10 million more votes.

This was before Jan 6th AND Roe V Wade being overturned.

I haven't seen any evidence that it has driven his voters off. You're using an emotional tact here.

I have. I see in my state of Ohio. I have a neighbor that is a literal die hard republican that refuses to vote for Trump now because of the stuff that happened over the past couple of years. Same with a large amount of others that I know. I only know of one person that would vote for Trump even after all of that while another 100 other previous Trump voters will not vote for him. That doesn't mean they will vote for a Dem as they won't, they just will not vote for any candidate if Trump is the one picked by the GOP. And this is in a county that voted over 60% for him.

Have you looked at Biden's numbers recently? He's not as popular as he was in 2020.

I have said it before that Biden has always been a weak candidate. Hell, any Dem candidate is a stronger candidate than Biden.

January 6 was bad. That's an objective fact. And yet you still have Republicans in Congress defending both Trump and the people that attacked the Capitol. You've got right-wing news networks and mouth-pieces calling these traitors "patriots".

First off, go find out how many actually support Jan 6th in Congress. Nearly all Republican senators absolutely detest him for that(they won't outright say it but they absolutely do). The far right in the House? They have ALWAYS been anti-government fascists. However, they are a minority in their own party. And right-wing news sources? Yes, they have always touted the same thing as the far right in the house except with a corporate twist. Those same news networks would always push anything that gets rid of government.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok, so Trump aims to gain UAW support by telling their workers and union members that "I don't care what you get.". I mean, who wouldn't support someone that doesn't care if you got a raise or health benefits or any other thing that a union fights for.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...c7fd58449&ei=7

Trump Tells Autoworkers ‘I Don’t Care What You Get’ in Bizarre Non-Union Rally

Rather than debate the Republican candidates polling in the single digits on Wednesday night, Donald Trump held a rally at the Drake Enterprises truck-parts manufacturing plant outside Detroit. According to the former president, he was there to support United Auto Workers members striking for increased wages and benefits — even though he spoke at the management’s request at a non-union shop. Over an hour or so, Trump talked trash about Joe Biden and the UAW’s leadership, while making very few mentions of the purported competition in the GOP primary. Below are some of the most striking moments from his Wednesday night speech.

Trump says that none of the other Republican candidates will be his vice-presidential nominee.

Aside from his refusal to debate, Trump has already made it clear in his messaging that he has pivoted from primary mode to running in a general election. This was quite clear when he hardly mentioned the GOP field — except to say that they were all “running for a job” in his administration. “They’ll do anything,” he said. “Secretary of something. They even say VP, I don’t know. Has anybody seen any VP in the group? I don’t think so.”

Throughout the rally, Trump tried to frame himself as the pro-union candidate for killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership that had the potential to take auto-manufacturing jobs abroad. But the candidate who has railed against union protections for years wasn’t exactly supportive of the UAW’s demands to increase wages and improve benefits. Prior to his speech, he did not respond to a reporter’s questions about whether or not he backed the 40 percent raise the UAW is demanding.

At one point during a long diatribe against electric vehicles, he said that “I don’t care what you get in the next two weeks, or three weeks, or five weeks,” referring to the length of the strike. (According to Trump, it wouldn’t matter due to the Biden administration’s support of electric vehicles and the potential for the growing industry to undercut union jobs.) “I don’t think you’re picketing for the right thing,” he added.

After saying that he did not care about the union’s demands, Trump then lobbied its president, Shawn Fain, to endorse him in the 2024 election. He seemed frustrated that Democrats always win the UAW’s endorsement over the party that undercuts unions as a policy. “It’s almost like an automatic reflex,” he said.

Trump’s speech at the non-union plant is probably not going to help his chances here. “I find the pathetic irony that the former president is going to hold a rally for union members at a non-union business,” Fain said of Trump before the rally. “His track record speaks for itself. In 2008 during the Great Recession, he blamed UAW members. He blamed our contracts for everything that was wrong with these companies. That’s a complete lie.”

The former president talked a lot about how electric vehicles are often built abroad, even as the Biden administration implements policies to block the importation of EV chargers and batteries from China. In a more Trumpian tone, he talked about the “panic” that settles in after Americans buy an electric car and worry over their (substantial) driving range. Returning to one of his classic complaints, he also went off about wind turbines, claiming that they “don’t work.” (Spoiler: They work.) He also claimed that electric motors on boats can’t work because they would electrocute boaters, which would be news to the outboard motor industry.

Trump claimed that Joe Biden had only visited the UAW picket line in Michigan the day before because Trump was speaking in Michigan. Biden, who sounded fairly energetic at the strike, “didn’t know where he was,” according to Trump. “I don’t think he actually knows what he’s doing,” Trump said, of Biden’s demeanor in general. “He doesn’t know,” Trump said. “Let’s not blame him.”

Later, Trump accused Biden of corruption, claiming that if his home was raided it “would have made Menendez look like a baby.” Trump said that he wasn’t sure if Biden is “going to make it to the starting gate” of the 2024 election.” In an unusual line of attack, he said that “crooked Joe Biden is back like a wretched old culture trying to finish off his prey.”

The former president did not get into specifics about the many indictments he is facing for his alleged acts of conspiring to overturn the election, violating the Espionage Act, and falsifying business records. But he did acknowledge that they were weighing on him. “I could’ve had the nicest, softest life,” Trump said. “Instead, I have to beat these lunatics up all day long. Everyday. Lunatics! I have never heard of the word indictment, now I get indicted every 3 days.”

The former president cited his record in office keeping prices down as a way to prove he was the right candidate for working class voters in 2024. At one point, he boasted that the last time gas prices were under $2 was under his watch. Unfortunately, he forgot that this occurred in April 2020 — when the economy tanked in the second month of the pandemic and over 20 million Americans lost their jobs.

In his nod to the culture war front against transgender rights, Trump went on about “child mutilization.” Most likely, he was referring to rare gender-reassignment surgeries for teenagers. Almost certainly, he meant “mutilation.”

[Breccia]

Ok, so Trump aims to gain UAW support by telling their workers and union members that "I don't care what you get."

I mean, he said this at a non-union shop, with what seem to be paid attendees I cited earlier. The UAW boss specifically and directly called out his record in public on purpose. He did all this as a flabby excuse to get out of the debates, and the whole thing was a disaster. I think it's pretty clear he's down to third-string PR at best.

[Ivanstone]

I guess we'll just have to wait and find out to see if they've come to their senses and finally decided that attempting to overthrow an election or have 91 felony indictments is finally the bridge too far. The trend I've personally seen is that's the case. Remains to be seen on whether it's enough to finally convince the GOP that their politics are too toxic for their moderate and politically illiterate/disengaged voters(the ones you're referring to above).

I'll genuinely be shocked if he gets less than 46% of the popular vote.

If you're talking about Alabama and presidents before Bush Jr, it's all Republicans. Clinton made it close(they love the southern candidate in the south), but Dole and Bush Sr won. Voted Reagan, of course. Voted Jimmy Carter. Voted Nixon. Then we get into the 60s which is the CRA-realignment you referred to.

I was referring to Alabama GOP in general. Roy Moore got 48% of the vote despite being a creep and an incompetent judge.

As for the CRA realignment, I don't think it was complete during the 90s. People didn't entirely vote for Reagan and Bush because of the Southern Strategy. The Dems put up weak candidates twice and it shows.

I never said he couldn't. I have better faith he won't in 2024 as compared to 2020. Obviously can't predict the future, it's way too early for me to say "he's gonna lose and there's nothing that could happen that would change my opinion".

I think there's too much uncertainty to make any form of reliable forecasting. I won't believe the GOP are done with Trump unless there's a notable loss in voter share.

[Redwyrm]

The one silver lining to Trump's rain clouds is that major Republican donors are not donating this cycle. And the money the RNC does have in reserve is being sucked up by Trump. Meaning less for congressional races. Don't care who the candidate is, without campaign funds you cannot win an election.