Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Masark]

Not exactly sure what their definition of "Crude Oil" is

They're reporting the price of West Texas Intermediate.

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Does the stock exchange also shut down if too many people sell?

Yes. The measures were implemented back in the 80s to try to prevent another Black Monday.

[Zan15]

According to Yahoo, "Crude Oil" is down to less then $29 a barrel. Not exactly sure what their definition of "Crude Oil" is, but it certainly will cause changes rather quickly actually. If prices stay in this range for a couple of months, a lot of fracking companies will go bankrupt.

Stock futures trading was halted due to the S&P being down 5%. So I presume this means there will be no change until tomorrow morning, when it is likely to be quite intense. Then again, maybe in 10 hours something will happen to calm things down.

in this country crude oil standard tracking is the WTI (west texas intermediate), where most of the oil flows for the country. just about everyone else uses something different.

27.99 -13.29 -32.19%

if it holds it will be the biggest drop since 1991

[Omega10]

[QUOTE=Masark;52163346]They're reporting the price of West Texas Intermediate.

Thank you.

For the halting of trade, for tomorrow its 7% and 13% cause 15 minutes halts, 20% ends trading for the day.

For futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-...221631295.html

In the midst of financial-market spasms as the day began in Asia Monday, trading in some of the world’s most popular equity contracts went quiet when declines reached 5%, setting off Chicago Mercantile Exchange limits that keep prices from falling further.

Contracts on indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are crucial elements of the global price discovery system, giving traders a price proxy and instruments to speculate on the world’s biggest stock market when regular exchanges are closed. Other options exist, including exchange-traded funds tied to the indexes, which begin trading when the premarket session opens in New York at 4 a.m. New York time.

Nasdaq 100 futures stopped falling when the contract reached 8,093.25, while the Dow contracts cannot trade below 24,534.

So futures can go up from -5%, but not drop any lower. At 4am New York time, apparently premarket sessions can do extra stuff, not really sure what that is.

[Zan15]

I'd like to investigate one of those comments above. Namely, that the Saudis crashed the oil price to show the Russians who's in charge here. Let's assume that's true. What's the US, and its oil industry specifically, supposed to do about this? This seems like a pretty substantial amount of collateral damage for someone who at least pretends to be our ally when they're not too busy murdering journalists.

Well three different "industries" inside of an industry.


You have oil exploration and extration- they are fucked, i mean fisted without lube fucked with a price war between saudi's who can afford 20 dollar oil for a while and russians who just don't give a fuck about debt/losses/deficits.

You then have oil traders, suppliers, middlemen. The faster oil drops, the bigger the profits in the short term since the spread will be Yugemungous for a few weeks/days/months......


then last you have producers/refiners/end product sales(gas stations)- same thing, they will get cheap oil but not have to drop prices on their products right away since they always claim they are still "using" more expensive oil brought months ago....



worst case, this takes the first group and sticks a second fist inside of an industry that was already struggling at 40-50. Layoffs and bankruptcies leading to consolidations and downstream economic pain.

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I should, I really should, start a correlation chart "what the futures say" vs "what actually happens". But barring an unexpected event, it's my overall opinion that the futures point in the correct direction, 50% to 150% as far.

Zandroid 15 is usually pretty good about mentioning the futures. I don't remember, however, him ever posting anything like that 1,000 point drop before. If my hazily recollected opinions are even remotely justified, that's -500 at the least.

For the sake of argument, let's pretend the 1,000 point drop is 100% correct. That would put us in Dec 2017 range, which is significant. Stocks climbed a lot in Jan 2018, or at least by the context at the time it felt like it. It opened Jan 2 at 24,809.3 and ended Jan 26 at 26,616.7 At the time, everyone -- well, Trump -- was all "New bigly record! Yuge! JOBS!" because, at the time, an increase of 1,800 seemed pretty good. And I guess it still is.

But it does make the loss we've had so far even more damning by comparison. We opened Feb 3 at 28,319.65, and closed Feb 28 with 25,409.36. That's a drop of about 2,900. And that's not even counting the peak -- which I will now do, because I'm a vindictive spiteful bastard. We were at 29,551 Feb 12. The drop from that was over four thousand points.

Anyhow, if that 1,000 point drop happens, we'll have undone not just the last 2 years 2 months, but by adding one more month, and by that month being Jan 2018, Trump will have lost pretty much everything about his stock market being special. The stock market held constant about 18,000 on election week and climbed to 19,800 or so by inauguration. Using either of these figures to a hypothetical -1000 tomorrow, Trump's total gains will be 38% (Nov) or 26% (Jan). Even the more flattering number gives an annual gain just shy of 10%, which in turn, is about on par with the historical average 1981+. Meaning that, yes, despite all his promises, Trump delivered pretty much what everyone else did.

Except Obama, who averaged 11%.

(drops mic)

it might very well be the largest pre market drop ever. i can't imagine its not if it sticks to the 1100-1300 range. it would even come close to the biggest drop on the market.


now what can happen between 12am and 9am and 4pm is anyones guess in this market. we had a 700 point swing in the last 30 minutes friday....soooo....

29551 - 20% = 5910 = 23,641 is the next level anyone should be looking at.
that is OFFICIALLY bear market...end of the 10 year run. (if the other 2 markets also drop 20%)
we got very close last time with trump at 19.6%.....

[Omega10]

Well three different "industries" inside of an industry.


You have oil exploration and extration- they are fucked, i mean fisted without lube fucked with a price war between saudi's who can afford 20 dollar oil for a while and russians who just don't give a fuck about debt/losses/deficits.

You then have oil traders, suppliers, middlemen. The faster oil drops, the bigger the profits in the short term since the spread will be Yugemungous for a few weeks/days/months......


then last you have producers/refiners/end product sales(gas stations)- same thing, they will get cheap oil but not have to drop prices on their products right away since they always claim they are still "using" more expensive oil brought months ago....



worst case, this takes the first group and sticks a second fist inside of an industry that was already struggling at 40-50. Layoffs and bankruptcies leading to consolidations and downstream economic pain.

To play devil's advocate a bit, from the Saudi and Russian standpoints, I don't think they saw prices stabilizing anyways. Option 1 is to sell a little oil at low prices, option 2 is to sell a lot of oil at low prices, with the possibility of bankrupting a lot of competitors and having a chance at higher prices sometime in the future.

The virus will reduce oil demand for the short term, and renewables will reduce oil demand for the long term. Furthermore, very low oil prices will slow down renewables. So, for basically the same brute force cold monetary reasons, it could be argued that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are doing what is in their long term best interests.

[Zan15]

To play devil's advocate a bit, from the Saudi and Russian standpoints, I don't think they saw prices stabilizing anyways. Option 1 is to sell a little oil at low prices, option 2 is to sell a lot of oil at low prices, with the possibility of bankrupting a lot of competitors and having a chance at higher prices sometime in the future.

The virus will reduce oil demand for the short term, and renewables will reduce oil demand for the long term. Furthermore, very low oil prices will slow down renewables. So, for basically the same brute force cold monetary reasons, it could be argued that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are doing what is in their long term best interests.

nah there are too many big players with the ability to borrow trillions to buy out all the failures. the oil will just sit there till it becomes economical to extract it.

problem is even at 20-30 dollars there is no one to sell more oil too. apparently even china is at 120% of capacity buying up oil in the mid 30's and they are floating a lot of it out at sea. US even has to sell oil from the reserves under law because they have too much.

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Scarier panic even then oil is....


10-year Treasury yield plunges below 0.5%, 30-year rate breaches 1%



it really shows how many people are dumping out of all other investment vehicles to at least get something for their billions.



not to mention they expect it to be even worse soon
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tracker indicated traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by at 75 basis points at its upcoming March meeting. Chances for a 75 basis point cut had topped 80% Sunday evening, compared with the 65% chance it had indicated on Friday. The FedWatch tool last pointed to a 62% chance of a 75 basis point cut, while chances for a 100 basis point cut were at 38%.

[cubby]

nah there are too many big players with the ability to borrow trillions to buy out all the failures. the oil will just sit there till it becomes economical to extract it.

problem is even at 20-30 dollars there is no one to sell more oil too. apparently even china is at 120% of capacity buying up oil in the mid 30's and they are floating a lot of it out at sea. US even has to sell oil from the reserves under law because they have too much.

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Scarier panic even then oil is....


10-year Treasury yield plunges below 0.5%, 30-year rate breaches 1%



it really shows how many people are dumping out of all other investment vehicles to at least get something for their billions.



not to mention they expect it to be even worse soon
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tracker indicated traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by at 75 basis points at its upcoming March meeting. Chances for a 75 basis point cut had topped 80% Sunday evening, compared with the 65% chance it had indicated on Friday. The FedWatch tool last pointed to a 62% chance of a 75 basis point cut, while chances for a 100 basis point cut were at 38%.

Should expect a run on gold then?

[Omega10]

nah there are too many big players with the ability to borrow trillions to buy out all the failures. the oil will just sit there till it becomes economical to extract it.

problem is even at 20-30 dollars there is no one to sell more oil too. apparently even china is at 120% of capacity buying up oil in the mid 30's and they are floating a lot of it out at sea. US even has to sell oil from the reserves under law because they have too much.

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Scarier panic even then oil is....


10-year Treasury yield plunges below 0.5%, 30-year rate breaches 1%



it really shows how many people are dumping out of all other investment vehicles to at least get something for their billions.



not to mention they expect it to be even worse soon
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tracker indicated traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by at 75 basis points at its upcoming March meeting. Chances for a 75 basis point cut had topped 80% Sunday evening, compared with the 65% chance it had indicated on Friday. The FedWatch tool last pointed to a 62% chance of a 75 basis point cut, while chances for a 100 basis point cut were at 38%.

So oil prices will not rebound for a long time? Is that a reasonably conclusion to draw from your remarks?

And to support your rate reduction comments:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/fed-...ael-gapen.html

Top Wall Street economist Michael Gapen expects the Federal Reserve will do what’s necessary to contain the coronavirus’ impact on the U.S. economy — even if it means slashing interest rates to 0%.

“The likelihood of getting to zero is higher than the risk of a recession,” the head of U.S. economics research at Barclays told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “There is probably a low risk of a recession, a 1 in 4 maybe at the most.”

It’s a move that would be deeper than during the financial crisis. That downturn prompted the Fed to cut rates to a range-bound 0%-0.25%.

Wow... only a 25% chance of a recession. Not very optimistic.

[Rasulis]

I'd like to investigate one of those comments above. Namely, that the Saudis crashed the oil price to show the Russians who's in charge here. Let's assume that's true. What's the US, and its oil industry specifically, supposed to do about this? This seems like a pretty substantial amount of collateral damage for someone who at least pretends to be our ally when they're not too busy murdering journalists.

This time SA is not at fault. Since the start of the global oil demand decline, OPEC had been doing all the production cut to try to keep the price of oil up. On the other hand, Russia had been maintaining the same level and even ramping up production. As for the US, when they should be cutting production, the shale oil companies are constantly increasing production. So SA is justifiably pissed.

In defense of the shale companies, they couldn't stop drilling and pumping. Think of it as if they were running on an inclined treadmill. If they stopped or slowed down, they would fall off the treadmill because they wouldn't be able to repay their loans. On the other hand, as they increased production, the price of oil kept going down as supply exceeded demand – the faster they ran the steeper the incline. Which forced them to constantly increased production just to stay in the same place.

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May i rant here? This pisses me off and makes me feel terrible about the future. Mainly because i'm still unemployed after graduating from college, about a year ago (and mind you, it was the best college of the fucking country). And a recession would make the prospects of job hunting look rather grim for the foreseeable future.

I would not worry too much. Somebody mentioned earlier that the stock market is not the economy. He was correct. It is still a very tight labor market. Especially if you have a degree from a top ranked university. We have been trying to hire an engineer with 10-year experience for the last two years with no luck. We are not the only one.

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in this country crude oil standard tracking is the WTI (west texas intermediate), where most of the oil flows for the country. just about everyone else uses something different.

27.99 -13.29 -32.19%

if it holds it will be the biggest drop since 1991

I actually was not expecting the price to hit $30 per barrel till the end of the week. Good thing my wife and I scrubbed our accounts clean of any funds with more than 5% oil/gas exposure back in 2010 - 2012.

[Omega10]

An interesting tidbit that is surprising to me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan...020456741.html

The world's third-largest economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in the three months through December, revised data showed on Monday, more than a preliminary reading of 6.3% and a median market forecast of 6.6%.

and

"Japan's economy is already in recession and there are emerging signals that the worst has yet to come," said Mizuho Securities senior market economist Toru Suehiro.

I did not realize that Japan was having that much trouble recently.

[Rasulis]

Welp! Iraq, Kuwait and UAE confirmed that they are following SA pricing lead. SA is increasing production from 9.7 billion bpd to 12 billion bpd. Yikes.

[Omega10]

Welp! Iraq, Kuwait and UAE confirmed that they are following SA pricing lead. SA is increasing production from 9.7 billion bpd to 12 billion bpd. Yikes.

12 billion is the top of the range of estimates made earlier. We will have cheap oil for quite a while.

[Zaydin]

I can't help but notice how all our resident Trump supporters are MIA. Are they on forum vacations or is this something that not even they can spin?

[Captain N]

I can't help but notice how all our resident Trump supporters are MIA. Are they on forum vacations or is this something that not even they can spin?

They're all on Facebook and Twitter hiding behind pictures of bald eagles and Confederate Flags telling the world that this crash is the fault of the Democrats.

Some even going so far as to threaten Asian-Americans for "their people" creating this virus to attack America's economy.

(Obviously this is not about our forum posters but that's some of the nonsense going around other social media right now)

[Zan15]

Should expect a run on gold then?

Might be if today is a blood bath since treasuries are sucking wind...

Gold just doesn't attract investors like it used too

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So oil prices will not rebound for a long time? Is that a reasonably conclusion to draw from your remarks?

Wow... only a 25% chance of a recession. Not very optimistic.

Nah both SA and Russia will blink... especially fast if the markets tank 5-10-15%

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I can't help but notice how all our resident Trump supporters are MIA. Are they on forum vacations or is this something that not even they can spin?

Well you know "the tread is just not holding up...." Lol...

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Man good thing those 5% breakers are in place
So pre market can't trade lower...even if it wanted too...I bet it would have hit 2k.

I almost want to set my alarm for 930 to see if we instantly hit the stock market breaker on open...but I worked all night ...

[Breccia]

Should expect a run on gold then?

This has already happened. The price of gold just hit a seven-year high.

Normally, I would say "the three safe places are gold, oil, and bonds". Um...that's nowhere near true, is it?

EDIT: I think we should play a variant of The Price is Right today.

"You mean, guessing what number the DOW will hit?"

Not quite. Guess the time of Trump's first tweet that says "Everything is under control and we have the best economy ever!" also known as "Please please plee-ee-ee-eeease stop dropping, stock market, please!" Whoever's closest without going over wins.

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WHOOPS too late, he already tweeted.

[Hobb]

God Lord, almost a 1300 point drop in after hours trading.

I think we'll officially hit a Bear market today, -20% drop from its high.

[Shalcker]

Nah both SA and Russia will blink... especially fast if the markets tank 5-10-15%

Russia had prepared 570 billions $ of reserves expecting events like this. Everyone knew crash will be coming eventually.

It'll be several years before it will need to "blink"... perhaps decades even.

[Hobb]

Almost 1900 point drop during the first 15 minutes of trading.

Pretty much official its a Bear market.

Edit: While it's officially not a Bear market yet. The NYSE has announced if the market does drop to 20% they'll shutdown for the day and just go home.

[Draco-Onis]

Almost 1900 point drop during the first 15 minutes of trading.

Pretty much official its a Bear market.

My buy button is getting tired of me hitting it