Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

Another day, another set of numbers from Italy:

Cases up +4207 to 35713 (+13.4%)
Deaths up +475 to 2978 (+19.0%)

Italys death rate (8.33%) seems extremely high, China only has 3237 (4%), even Irans death ratio (6.54%) is lower too.

[PhaelixWW]

Italys death rate seems extremely high, China only has 3237, even Irans death ratio is lower too.

Italy has almost certainly fallen way behind in testing. I'd assume that their case count is actually upwards of 5-10x as many.

[Kreuger]

Italys death rate seems extremely high, China only has 3237, even Irans death ratio is lower too.

Could be a combo of accurate reporting from Italy, not so accurate from China/Iran to sheer bad luck that Italy got hit in a bad area.

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

since i moved back home we're me, my parents, grandparents, 3 sisters and 2 brothers... 5 are coffee drinkers...

Thats 12 people, if the number of grandparents is 4, seems ridiculous for a single house hold. And what does coffee have to do with anything?

[Orange Joe]

Thats 12 people, if the number of grandparents is 4, seems ridiculous for a single house hold. And what does coffee have to do with anything?

Coffee makes you piss more often.

[TrollHunter3000]

My original point was that it wasn't doubling daily as someone incorrectly stated.

Exactly how fast it has been doubling is less clear, and the data doesn't exactly say 3 days either - and it is likely that it now has slowed down a bit.


I don't know why you write what you write if you really are a mathematician (what-ever that means).

It definitely has not slowed down. I'm just correcting you when you say that the spreading of the infection isn't accelerating.

[PhaelixWW]

And what does coffee have to do with anything?

Caffeine is a diuretic.

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

Ok then drink decaffeinated coffee during these times.

[TrollHunter3000]

Fuck me has anyone actually read this Imperial study/modelling?
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Summary

Do nothing - 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months.
Mitigation - Half ^
Suppression - No apocalyptic death rates, but if we ever relax before the vaccine thats going to take 18 months to test and produce, see above ^

The CDC model has pretty much the same results and I was posting about that last week. Unless we do an actual lockdown for at least a month, we can expect around 200 million infected in the US and 1 million dead.

[Gaidax]

How do they think to enforce that in the Palestinian territories?

Palestinian territories are self-governed, whatever they do is their problem.

[PhaelixWW]

since i moved back home we're me, my parents, grandparents, 3 sisters and 2 brothers...

With 10+ people living in the same house, it should be easy to find a few old t-shirts. A single t-shirt could be cut into about 50 rags...

Make the coffee drinkers donate first.

[Gorsameth]

Italys death rate (8.33%) seems extremely high, China only has 3237 (4%), even Irans death ratio (6.54%) is lower too.

The problem is that Italy's healthcare has been completely overwhelmed.
People who would otherwise survive with proper treatment now die because there is not enough treatment to go around.

Imagine having 10 people that need ventilators, with 10 ventilators 1 of em would die regardless.
But now there are so many people in need you only have 5 ventilators. So 5 get them and live, 5 don't and die.
That is why every country is working on flattening the curve. Because the #1 priority is ensuring your healthcare doesn't get overwhelmed by to many cases at once.

[PhaelixWW]

Unless we do an actual lockdown for at least a month, we can expect around 200 million infected in the US and 1 million dead.

0.5% CFR is extremely optimistic.

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

Caffeine is a diuretic.

Doses of caffeine equivalent to the amount normally found in standard servings of tea, coffee and carbonated soft drinks appear to have no diuretic action.[72] However, acute ingestion of caffeine in large doses (at least 250–300 mg, equivalent to the amount found in 2–3 cups of coffee or 5–8 cups of tea) results in a short-term stimulation of urine output in individuals who have been deprived of caffeine for a period of days or weeks.[72] This increase is due to both a diuresis (increase in water excretion) and a natriuresis (increase in saline excretion); it is mediated via proximal tubular adenosine receptor blockade.[73] The acute increase in urinary output may increase the risk of dehydration. However, chronic users of caffeine develop a tolerance to this effect and experience no increase in urinary output.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caffeine#Physical_2

So it doesnt apply here, since theyre not new to coffee.

[Forogil]

It definitely has not slowed down. I'm just correcting you when you say that the spreading of the infection isn't accelerating.

I wrote that it was likely that it had slowed down - based on all the measures taken the last few days. But due to the incubation periods we don't have the data yet.

The number of cases got out of control about a week ago and has since then been growing exponentially; about 10% per day - and that growth rate does not seem to be accelerating; meaning the peak is a couple of months away.

[Shadowferal]

Local store seems to be getting back to a semblance of normalcy.
They've cases of toilet paper, and paper towels...

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

They've cases of toilet paper, and paper towels...

Not for long...

[Acidbaron]

Italy has almost certainly fallen way behind in testing. I'd assume that their case count is actually upwards of 5-10x as many.

Testing is no longer a priority, if i compare it to my own country who's healthcare system is 'managing' it, we no longer test everyone only severely ill people to diagnose them, all the rest i basically stay home and monitor yourself.

If you factor in the people who don't show symptoms but are infected those numbers will be far higher, but not just there, everywhere. Experts are saying the only number worth watching is that of the number of hospitalizations, that's the one that has to stabilize.

[Shadowferal]

Testing is no longer a priority, if i compare it to my own country who's healthcare system is 'managing' it, we no longer test everyone only severely ill people to diagnose them, all the rest i basically stay home and monitor yourself.
If you factor in the people who don't show symptoms but are infected those numbers will be far higher, but not just there, everywhere. Experts are saying the only number worth watching is that of the number of hospitalizations, that's the one that has to stabilize.

That makes sense...but then that was something close to what I posted earlier.

[Zaktar]

0.5% CFR is extremely optimistic.

It is optimistic, though possibly not a bad guess; don't think it's at all clear what the real CFR is yet, and won't be for a long time.