Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Edge-]

"Long Term Goals", their long term goal is keeping power for themselves and their BFFs. Party over Policy as usual at the DNC. We wouldn't want to do any thing crazy like getting more Black Representation in congress from a progressive that might actually want to fight for things that would help undeserved communities instead of protecting their friend's seat.

Either way, the more Justice Democrats that can get into congress is a win I'll take.

Power to...have more influence in addressing issues that face African Americans in their districts and across the country. Those dastardly villains!

And given that many have worked with Engels for years and aren't looking at his comments, which are pretty objectively awful, in isolation. Here's his NAACP record for 2019 - https://live-naacp-site.pantheonsite...EW-YORK1-2.pdf

100% in voting in-line with the NAACP position on key issues. Not a super high bar to cross, but meaningful. They're looking at his history and recent comments together.

And if Justice Democrats can actually start finding some wins, good on them! They've been pretty unsuccessful so far, especially in the general, but I have no problem with them if they learn how to get folks elected. More importantly, if they're flipping seats, not just taking existing safe Democrat seats. That's not much of a big win, but flipping a red district to blue is.

[Rasulis]

This particular results from Fox News poll is very telling.



Fear is a big factor when it comes to turnout, and that could help Biden. In 2016, it was the other way around. Sixty three percent of those backing Trump said fear that the other side may win motivated them vs. 44% of those backing Clinton.

[Thekri]

So far my favorite results from the Primary is the two Republican races that Trump waded into, his candidate got destroyed in. First in Virginia, with Meadow's seat, and even more interestingly, in Kentucky with Rep. Massie:

And in Kentucky, Trump tweeted his opposition to giving another term to a sitting congressman, Thomas Massie, who forced a vote on an economic relief package. Massie won overwhelmingly with almost 90% of the vote. Members of Republican leadership backed Massie's primary opponent after Massie forced the vote. But after racist tweets surfaced from that opponent, Massie cruised.

Now don't get me wrong, Massie is a total asshole (It is interesting how often Trump backed candidates have racist tweets to find though...), the relevant point is that Trump doesn't have the stranglehold on the GOP electorate he claims he does. His whole schtick when it comes to congressional GOP support, is that if you fight him, you will get primaried. That was once true, it seems to be much less so now. Bucking Trump is not a death sentence to a GOP congressman now. Actually fighting him consistently probably is, but your base doesn't completely belong to Trump.

[Omega10]

So far my favorite results from the Primary is the two Republican races that Trump waded into, his candidate got destroyed in. First in Virginia, with Meadow's seat, and even more interestingly, in Kentucky with Rep. Massie:

Now don't get me wrong, Massie is a total asshole (It is interesting how often Trump backed candidates have racist tweets to find though...), the relevant point is that Trump doesn't have the stranglehold on the GOP electorate he claims he does. His whole schtick when it comes to congressional GOP support, is that if you fight him, you will get primaried. That was once true, it seems to be much less so now. Bucking Trump is not a death sentence to a GOP congressman now. Actually fighting him consistently probably is, but your base doesn't completely belong to Trump.

This is good news. It means the 36% that support him now over Biden could be down to 30 or even less over the next month or so. Fingers crossed.

[cors8]

Any outside observer would call the Justice Democrats successful. How many Green Party members are currently in Congress?

They are flipping seats, ones from Corporate power who doesn't care if they have an R or D next to their name.

They're still running as Democrats. If they ran as Independent/Socialist/Green/etc., they'd probably lose.

[kaelleria]

Good ad from the Lincoln Project.. One of their first that's not overtly a negative attack ad.



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Also I guess more former republican politicians are voting for Joe in November.

[omerome]

Good ad from the Lincoln Project.. One of their first that's not overtly a negative attack ad.



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Also I guess more former republican politicians are voting for Joe in November.

Best comment on that Lincoln Project ad:

If Trump wanted Hillary to go to jail he should have just hired her.

[Milchshake]

New bunch of swing state tracking polls out today.

Polling USA
@USA_Polling

(Redfield / Siena / Hodas)

MI:
Biden +11
Biden +11
Biden +18

FL:
Biden +4
Biden +6
-

WI:
Biden +9
Biden +11
Biden +17

PA:
Biden +10
Biden +10
Biden +12

AZ:
Biden +4
Biden +7
-

NC:
Biden +6
Biden +9

I'm sure rampant COVID-19 will make Arizonans and Floridians might push the margins even more.

[Omega10]

And here are Biden leads in the latest NY Times polls.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...n=true#image=1

Florida +6
Arizona +7
North Carolina +9
Wisconsin +11
Michigan +11

It's a good start. I'd like to add about 10 more to each just on general principles.

[Edge-]

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/rober...aughter-tweet/

Another Republican candidate's family, in this cause his daughter, comes out against him and asks people to not vote for him.

[Milchshake]

Great line from a good article that really answers, "why is Biden polling so well?"

"After 12 years of feasting on white identity politics with a black man and a woman as its preeminent villains, the Republican Party is struggling to run its Obama-era culture-war playbook against an old, moderate white guy,"
Adam Serwer

Kinda highlights how the national media has internalized the "culture war" as business as usual, and rarely holds the GOP accountable on it.


The president is having a difficult time deploying his traditional culture-war playbook against Biden.

[Omega10]

Great line from a good article that really answers, "why is Biden polling so well?"

"After 12 years of feasting on white identity politics with a black man and a woman as its preeminent villains, the Republican Party is struggling to run its Obama-era culture-war playbook against an old, moderate white guy,"
Adam Serwer

Kinda highlights how the national media has internalized the "culture war" as business as usual, and rarely holds the GOP accountable on it.


The president is having a difficult time deploying his traditional culture-war playbook against Biden.

This is kind of depressing. It means that hatred of women and hatred is so embedded in our society and its politics that we just take it for granted.

I would say that the media feeds the "culture war" intentionally, partly because many of their decision makers agree with it and support this hatred, and partly because it makes them a lot of money. I guess we just have to fight back as hard as we can.

[eschatological]

This is kind of depressing. It means that hatred of women and hatred is so embedded in our society and its politics that we just take it for granted.

I would say that the media feeds the "culture war" intentionally, partly because many of their decision makers agree with it and support this hatred, and partly because it makes them a lot of money. I guess we just have to fight back as hard as we can.

I mean, it's kind of the argument Biden supporters were making from the very beginning. Depressing to see that argument of "not giving into identity politics" (as if the women/PoCs we put up for the nomination were somehow unqualified) is showing it might actually be true.

It's certainly the argument my 63 year old mother made when she was supporting Biden or Bloomberg from the get-go. And she's a woman of color with a PhD - she just didn't think the vast majority of Americans were unbiased enough to not give in to misogyny or racism.

[breadisfunny]

I mean, it's kind of the argument Biden supporters were making from the very beginning. Depressing to see that argument of "not giving into identity politics" (as if the women/PoCs we put up for the nomination were somehow unqualified) is showing it might actually be true.

It's certainly the argument my 63 year old mother made when she was supporting Biden or Bloomberg from the get-go. And she's a woman of color with a PhD - she just didn't think the vast majority of Americans were unbiased enough to not give in to misogyny or racism.

if we are referring to what i think we are referring around here its more of the fact that clinton is hated around here simply because she is the wife of a former president who screwed over A LOT OF PEOPLE when he signed the nafta treaty and a SHITTON of them proceeded to lose their jobs shortly after. they directly blame him and anyone connected to him for it. the fact that she ignored wisconsin just sealed her fate in 2016.

[eschatological]

if we are referring to what i think we are referring around here its more of the fact that clinton is hated around here simply because she is the wife of a former president who screwed over A LOT OF PEOPLE when he signed the nafta treaty and a SHITTON of them proceeded to lose their jobs shortly after. they directly blame him and anyone connected to him for it. the fact that she ignored wisconsin just sealed her fate in 2016.

If you don't think misogyny played a part in the 2016 election, IDK what to tell you - look at the Warren campaign this past year. Far more qualified than any other candidate, a great progressive candidate, high energy, loved by people at her rallies, could form coherent sentences, had a record of getting shit passed in Congress...couldn't get off the ground at all.

People like to say, "Hey, it's not all women.....it's just this woman!" But then when presented with an even better woman, they say, "Well.......not this woman.....but maybe some other woman in the future."

Edit: Let's just even forget the fact that NAFTA created a net surplus of jobs, and thus invalidates your entire argument. You know where most people in the Rust Belt lost their jobs to? Non-union Southern states who enticed companies down south to save on labor costs. And, well, Asia.....where we didn't have good trade deals in place, which the TPP was supposed to fix.....until Trump scuttled it.

[Kaleredar]

The only thing I’m worried about is Biden’s penchant for putting his foot in his mouth... and while trump’s sycophants don’t care what rambling nonsense spills out of Trump’s mouth, Democrats and independent voters may be more willing to pass on Biden if he starts saying too many untoward things in the heat of the moment.

Biden himself has been pretty silent throughout this whole fiasco and seems content enough to let Trump self-destruct. But he can’t sit on the sidelines forever.

[Milchshake]

The only thing I’m worried about is Biden’s penchant for putting his foot in his mouth... and while trump’s sycophants don’t care what rambling nonsense spills out of Trump’s mouth, Democrats and independent voters may be more willing to pass on Biden if he starts saying too many untoward things in the heat of the moment.

Biden himself has been pretty silent throughout this whole fiasco and seems content enough to let Trump self-destruct. But he can’t sit on the sidelines forever.

Biden gave a really good speech today. If you seriously support him or the removal of Trump, one should really bury this "Joe is Quiet" narrative.

Really ask yourself why "Joe Biden is quiet" is your default?

Last Saturday, CNN aired a three hour special around Trump's rally, but today they didn't carry any of Joe Biden's event or speech.

Also yesterday:

[Felya]

I mean, it's kind of the argument Biden supporters were making from the very beginning. Depressing to see that argument of "not giving into identity politics" (as if the women/PoCs we put up for the nomination were somehow unqualified) is showing it might actually be true.

It's certainly the argument my 63 year old mother made when she was supporting Biden or Bloomberg from the get-go. And she's a woman of color with a PhD - she just didn't think the vast majority of Americans were unbiased enough to not give in to misogyny or racism.

To be fair... who thought Obama would win the DNC primary? I think Trump took advantage of the left taking too much for granted, because Obama won. I hope and have faith in American people, that the culture war rhetoric will fade into obscurity, with Trump leaving office.

I hope this ends up being a lesson in not taking things for granted, than a shift of GOP into a culture war party.

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if we are referring to what i think we are referring around here its more of the fact that clinton is hated around here simply because she is the wife of a former president who screwed over A LOT OF PEOPLE when he signed the nafta treaty and a SHITTON of them proceeded to lose their jobs shortly after. they directly blame him and anyone connected to him for it. the fact that she ignored wisconsin just sealed her fate in 2016.

If this is the case, why did unemployment sharply decline after NAFTA? NAFTA was started on January 1st, 1994, with unemployment at 6.6%. January 1993, unemployment was at 7.3%. January 1995 and 1996, 5.6%... 97, 5.2%... 98, 4.6%... 99, 4.3%... 2000, 4.0%...

In fact, November 2008... 15 years after NAFTA, was the first month that we hit pre NAFTA level of unemployment.
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

NAFTA was an attempt to slow down jobs already leaving, because automotive industry was mismanaged and China was no longer isolationist:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_&_Me

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Let's just even forget the fact that NAFTA created a net surplus of jobs, and thus invalidates your entire argument. You know where most people in the Rust Belt lost their jobs to? Non-union Southern states who enticed companies down south to save on labor costs. And, well, Asia.....where we didn't have good trade deals in place, which the TPP was supposed to fix.....until Trump scuttled it.

I think this is the part a lot of people don’t remember or understand. Without trade deals, you get what happened in the 80s and throughout history. Corporations will do what ever makes them the most money and it’s not US workers... something US workers shouldn’t want to be... trade deals is what is supposed to keep US from racing to the bottom in pay and workers rights. As bad as pay in US is now, you don’t want to compete with child labour in China.

[Thekri]

Fox News moves Texas into the "Toss-up" category, with their latest poll showing Biden ahead for the first time, with a 1 point lead.

Here is the link to the actual poll results, because the news articles on it are always incomplete.

Now I have consistently advised against taking polls too seriously, and that holds true here too, Texas will still probably go for Trump, but there are some very encouraging facts here.

For one, both of the other Republicans asked about are actually running ahead of the President. Greg Abbot's approval is 13% higher than Trump's, and Cornyn is polling a couple points about Trump, but still under 50%. Now this is actually something useful and relevant for right now. When the GOP sees the top of the ticket is dragging down their chances, rather than riding the boost, that dramatically changes the dynamic of control. Trump is going to have a lot harder time controlling Senators that are polling ahead of him.

Something else I would like you to notice about this poll. Certain Trump supporters on this forum have complained about the percentage of party affiliation for respondents "They asked more democrats, so of course Trump is losing". Fundamentally this is because they do not understand how polling works, political affiliation is a screening criteria, and they ask a percentage based on the ratio of the state. Feast your eyes on the Texas breakdown:

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION
--------Democrat--- ---Republican-------- Independent /
TOTAL Solid Lean TOTAL Solid Lean Other
40% 34 6 46 37 9 14

Yep, they asked significantly more Republicans than Democrats, and Trump is still losing.

I don't think Biden will win Texas, but he CAN win Texas if the Trump campaign doesn't get things turned around soon. They are going to be forced to throw resources into Texas to stop this, because there is no path to the White House without Texas. Period. The math doesn't work without Texas being red. Trump is not helping his case there either, this could get a lot worse for him there.

[Zaydin]

Fox News moves Texas into the "Toss-up" category, with their latest poll showing Biden ahead for the first time, with a 1 point lead.

Here is the link to the actual poll results, because the news articles on it are always incomplete.

Now I have consistently advised against taking polls too seriously, and that holds true here too, Texas will still probably go for Trump, but there are some very encouraging facts here.

For one, both of the other Republicans asked about are actually running ahead of the President. Greg Abbot's approval is 13% higher than Trump's, and Cornyn is polling a couple points about Trump, but still under 50%. Now this is actually something useful and relevant for right now. When the GOP sees the top of the ticket is dragging down their chances, rather than riding the boost, that dramatically changes the dynamic of control. Trump is going to have a lot harder time controlling Senators that are polling ahead of him.

Something else I would like you to notice about this poll. Certain Trump supporters on this forum have complained about the percentage of party affiliation for respondents "They asked more democrats, so of course Trump is losing". Fundamentally this is because they do not understand how polling works, political affiliation is a screening criteria, and they ask a percentage based on the ratio of the state. Feast your eyes on the Texas breakdown:


Yep, they asked significantly more Republicans than Democrats, and Trump is still losing.

I don't think Biden will win Texas, but he CAN win Texas if the Trump campaign doesn't get things turned around soon. They are going to be forced to throw resources into Texas to stop this, because there is no path to the White House without Texas. Period. The math doesn't work without Texas being red. Trump is not helping his case there either, this could get a lot worse for him there.

That's hilarious to me: That Trump is so bad that he's going to force the Republican party to spend money in TEXAS of all places. That would be like a Republican candidate forcing Democrats to spend money in California or New York.

That should be a blaring alarm for Republicans that Trump is threatening to take their party down with him if he loses in November because of just how unpopular he is. If I were them, I'd be looking for a way to get Trump off the ticket and find someone less polarizing.