Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Milchshake]

At this point Hunter Biden isn't going to change anything. The "always Trump" camp are decided. The "always Biden" camp are decided.

The undecided voters are not going to vote on issues like that. They care about the pandemic / jobs / healthcare etc. The attempted scandal won't even register on their radars. I don't understand this strategy, I just can't see it moving the needle at all.

Ya, my belief is that some models are too generous in the amount of undecideds they're assigning to Trump.
Also, the projections of early voters are splitting undecided voters 50/50. Which I think is wrong.
From phone banking and talking with people.... there's extremely motivated people out there. They're motivated to get to the post-Trump era asap.

All just my own opinions, and putting it on the record for fun!

May the @Skroe be with me! I think he's out there pining for an electoral bloodbath as well.

I'm also projecting, that Frank Luntz's post debate sample of voters will be kicking Trump in the nutz. Faster than Rudy can untuck his shirt.

[Zan15]

So when do we start making our picks on what we think the final EC vote will be?

I'll go ahead and say 353-185:

i def wouldnt count on ohio not being ohio.

better chance with a few other reds then texas.

[Elegiac]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/b...down-iowa.html

Reminder that the Republican, "JUST STAY OPEN!" plan has been tried. It doesn't help the economy.

Demand shock? What demand shock?

What Spanos was describing is the new reality now facing entire clusters of American businesses — restaurants, movie theaters, airlines, gyms — and the economy more generally: Consumer anxiety over the continued spread of the pandemic is holding back the recovery by making it impossible to get back to business as usual. In the spring, the economy was crushed in large part by the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by states, which created what economists call a supply shock: businesses literally could not supply goods and services, because they were shut down.

But as lockdowns have been lifted in most of the country and businesses have been able to reopen, that supply shock has waned, only for a new problem to emerge: weak demand. In other words, a supply shock has been replaced by a shock to demand.

Some of the weakness in demand is because we’re on the verge of a classic recessionary cycle: Since the stimulus payments to unemployed workers ended in July, people either have less money to spend or are worried about spending it, which means businesses have less revenue, which makes them cut back on hiring and investment, which means less spending.

But what makes this demand shock exceptional is that the U.S. still has 40,000 to 50,000 new Covid-19 cases and 600 to 700 deaths every day, and as a result lots of Americans are still leery of doing normal, not particularly indulgent things like eating out, going to the gym, or going to the movies. A recent survey by research firm Datassentials, for instance, found that 58% of those surveyed described themselves as “uncomfortable” with dining indoors, and 36% described themselves as “very uncomfortable.” Not surprisingly, then, no matter how creative restaurants get, traffic is still down sharply in most places, and 2.5 million restaurant workers who lost their jobs in April remain unemployed. Similarly, gyms have been open in most states for months now. But a recent survey of 5,000 gym-goers by RunRepeat found that 70% haven’t returned and 43% said they had no plans to go back. Half a dozen gym chains have filed for bankruptcy in recent months, including 24 Hour Fitness, the owner of New York Sports Club, and Gold’s Gym, with many of them permanently shuttering a majority of their locations.

This shouldn’t be a revelation. In fact, myriad studies have now shown that in the early days of the pandemic, people began voluntarily socially distancing and avoiding places they perceived as risky even before lockdowns were put in place. And if you go further back in history, during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, businesses stayed open in most cities, yet economic activity still fell sharply, and contemporary accounts suggest that the economy only started to rebound when people became less afraid of catching the flu. The point is that lifting stay-at-home orders and opening restaurants isn’t enough: Until consumers feel safe, they’re going to stay away.

In the wake of the spring lockdowns, a popular narrative emerged that the only thing holding back the U.S. economy were busybody government officials who insisted on keeping stuff shut down. And, to be sure, government-imposed restrictions are still playing a role in holding back the economy, particularly in states like California — which has yet to allow Disneyland, or movie theaters, to open. But what the experience of restaurants and gyms and theme parks is telling us is that the problem now isn’t lockdowns. It’s something more basic: justifiable fear.

The one in which Trump and the Republican Party are quantifiably the biggest single factors contributing to the recession besides COVID itself.

[kaid]

Ya, my belief is that some models are too generous in the amount of undecideds they're assigning to Trump.
Also, the projections of early voters are splitting undecided voters 50/50. Which I think is wrong.
From phone banking and talking with people.... there's extremely motivated people out there. They're motivated to get to the post-Trump era asap.

All just my own opinions, and putting it on the record for fun!

May the @Skroe be with me! I think he's out there pining for an electoral bloodbath as well.

I'm also projecting, that Frank Luntz's post debate sample of voters will be kicking Trump in the nutz. Faster than Rudy can untuck his shirt.

They don't seem to get that the whole hillary email things worked because it was one scandal that had been running around for a couple years on a candidate that the right had demonized for decades. None of that is true with Joe. At worst there was some nepotism and yet the current president is like the god emperor of nepotism so I just don't see them being able to land it. Hunter biden is an admitted adict and has had a lot of issues in the past. He had his mom and sister die and lost another brother. Some people can soldier through that and some kinda get wrecked by it. Most of the "leaked emails" just show that joe is a loving and caring father and if that's the worst they can say about him I don't get it.

[PhaelixWW]

i def wouldnt count on ohio not being ohio.

better chance with a few other reds then texas.

Ohio has voted with the winning candidate in 28 out of the last 30 elections. The last time they didn't side with the winning candidate was 60 years ago. I feel like that's counting on Ohio to be Ohio.

Iowa and Georgia both have a longer history of voting Republican than Ohio, and those are the only two battleground states that I'd cede to Trump. That being said, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he lost those just like Florida, but if I have to pick a line, that's where I think it's most likely to be.

The outside odds that would actually surprise me, though I think it's still a slight possibility, is Trump losing Texas. If he loses Texas, I'm going to be celebrating all night.

[beanman12345]

just watched this 60 minutes interview, the whole 38 minutes

He says he doesn't want to lock up biden and obama even though he's been on for years now about the "the biggest political crime in history," even though doj just said there was no crime, but he is still saying it's a crime, but law and order also. if it was anyone but trump i'd be confused, but i'm not.

Trump doesn't need to go to prison, he needs to go to a mental institution.

[Edge-]

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSW1N2G600R

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Thursday said negotiations with lawmakers on a coronavirus relief package, now totaling $1.9 trillion, have entered a new phase with congressional committee chairs meeting and the two sides trading technical language.

Meadows reiterated that his boss President Donald Trump is willing “to go bigger” on a coronavirus deal but only to boost certain line items, namely including direct payments to families.

Big if true, now we just wait to see if McConnell will play the grim reaper once more and hold this up in the Senate.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2772YL?s=1

And those "Proud Boys" emails threatening Democratic voters seem to have pretty conclusively originated in Iran. No evidence of the Iranian government specifically, but it's clear that it wasn't from the group proper.

Which is good news at the end of the day.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.wesh.com/article/layoffs...54507?src=app#

Trump supporting boss sends letter to employees threatening layoffs if Trump doesn't win. Employee goes to the media about his employer trying to coerce employees into voting for Trump. Employer fires employee for going to the media about how he's trying to coerce his employees.

That's it. That's the story. Hope this guy gets hired somewhere else ASAP.

[Shadowferal]

Assuming Biden wins do you think he'll try for a second term or let Kamala take a shot in 2024

In my opinion, it's Kamala's if she wants it.
Assuming a better than mediocre job done during the term, (and using careful language), she could sail relatively easy into the presidency.

[Zan15]

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSW1N2G600R
White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Thursday said negotiations with lawmakers on a coronavirus relief package, now totaling $1.9 trillion, have entered a new phase with congressional committee chairs meeting and the two sides trading technical language.

Meadows reiterated that his boss President Donald Trump is willing “to go bigger” on a coronavirus deal but only to boost certain line items, namely including direct payments to families.


Big if true, now we just wait to see if McConnell will play the grim reaper once more and hold this up in the Senate.



.

LOL great negotiator....going to end up totally caving to Pelosi in the end.

[DingDongKing]

Trump seems to be trying to pull a Vincenzo Pentangeli on Biden by bringing this Tony Bobulinski bloke to the debate. Someone please remind him Hunter Biden is not standing for President. The entire situation is getting increasingly desperate and mind bogglingly confusing.

[postman1782]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...98695683334144

Eyyyyy, Trump is just tweeting out the 60 minutes interview ahead of it going live. Ignoring their agreement to only film for archival purposes.

How are we supposed to trust this guy, again?

I have never trusted him. He hasn't kept any promises.

[Felya]

Trump seems to be trying to pull a Vincenzo Pentangeli on Biden by bringing this Tony Bobulinski bloke to the debate. Someone please remind him Hunter Biden is not standing for President. The entire situation is getting increasingly desperate and mind bogglingly confusing.

Running on his record I see...

[DingDongKing]

Running on his record I see...

Just for what it's worth, even as someone who knows that this is a load of bullshit, you can't help but wonder what the fuck's going on.

[Felya]

Just for what it's worth, even as someone who knows that this is a load of bullshit, you can't help but wonder what the fuck's going on.

In what sense?

[DingDongKing]

In what sense?

This whole Tony Bubolinski thing. It's mystifying.

[Felya]

This whole Tony Bubolinski thing. It's mystifying.

Why? It’s the same bullshit as it’s been for the last 4 years.

[Edge-]

This whole Tony Bubolinski thing. It's mystifying.

He's totes playing next-level mind-games. Probably will reference him at some point during the debate.

It's like when he brought the women who accused Bill Clinton to the debate against Hillary.

[DingDongKing]

Why? It’s the same bullshit as it’s been for the last 4 years.

True enough.

He's totes playing next-level mind-games. Probably will reference him at some point during the debate.

It's like when he brought the women who accused Bill Clinton to the debate against Hillary.

Agreed. Though I think bringing that lady in had a lot of repercussions for Hillary, although that's more to do with her just having a bad rep anyway.

[Felya]

He's totes playing next-level mind-games. Probably will reference him at some point during the debate.

It's like when he brought the women who accused Bill Clinton to the debate against Hillary.

Paula Jones... it’s also why I keep harping on these being Russian oligarchs, regardless of Ukraine being dragged through the mud. This is no different than all the other disinformation bullshit... if ya all read Russian, this would be a lot easier to understand...

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1319404416894529537

Fox News still invites Mayor Pete on to humiliate them on TV. I never figured they'd be into sadomasochism over at Fox, but I guess they're into some kinky shit.