Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cynep]

I am not terribly sure why you thought that any sort of peace agreement will be coming any time soon.

The whatever talks that go on and that will eventually happens in a good faith will lead first and foremost to armistice and ceasefire with a shortlist of mutual demands.

Peace agreement is a whole other level that will take years to manifest if at all, that's when the serious money and borders back and forth will go on.

No, I always agreed with you that full peace won't be soon (unless something happens suddenly). It's just you always talk about "concede" and "give up" when you really describe frontlines and army movements. Ukraine didn't concede Kherson or Luhansk oblast, or northern Ukraine earlier - they retreated and the front moved, it's ephemeral without an agreement. And a ceasefire agreement is not final, just a timeout, so even if you will claim Ukraine gave up some land, Ukraine will claim it didn't, it's temporarily occupied territory behind temporarily frozen frontlines, war still goes on. And if the war goes on, sanctions stay, which is my point. Unlike Minsk agreements, ceasefire works against Russia this time, they need a way out.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Did they all become swiss citizens? Because as far as I can tell, Switzerland doesn't have birthright citizenship, Germany on the other hand does and they are in the negative so, somehow I doubt your explanation.

What do you mean with birthright citizenship? Switzerland and Germany are both countries of Jus Sanguinis tradition. If anything our Naturalization process is probably even more restrictive than the German's (we have about 38% foreign residents, compared to the German's 20something, of which a sizeable proportion is 2nd if not 3rd generation here).

But that has no relation with natural growth figures, as its a statistic that takes into account the resident population, regardless of citizenship. What is affected is of course the pool available for conscription (we maintain mandatory military service), with the current events suddenly resulting in talks on budget increase, as well as less often talked about aspects of gender equality.

While Germany is in the negative, their situation would be much much worse if not for the recent massive waves of immigration, as they've been on the edge since the 90s already, due to a multitude of factors.

Edit : were you meaning the relatively recent, restrictive Jus Soli Germany enacted in 2000? Again that has no incidence on natural growth figures, as unless specified otherwise, those reflect the resident population.

[Mayhem]

What do you mean with birthright citizenship? Switzerland and Germany are both countries of Jus Sanguinis tradition. If anything our Naturalization process is probably even more restrictive than the German's (we have about 38% foreign residents, compared to the German's 20something, of which a sizeable proportion is 2nd if not 3rd generation here).

But that has no relation with natural growth figures, as its a statistic that takes into account the resident population, regardless of citizenship. What is affected is of course the pool available for conscription (we maintain mandatory military service), with the current events suddenly resulting in talks on budget increase, as well as less often talked about aspects of gender equality.

While Germany is in the negative, their situation would be much much worse if not for the recent massive waves of immigration, as they've been on the edge since the 90s already, due to a multitude of factors.

Edit : were you meaning the relatively recent, restrictive Jus Soli Germany enacted in 2000? Again that has no incidence on natural growth figures, as unless specified otherwise, those reflect the resident population.

How does a statistic take into account resident population growth regardless of citizenship while omitting migrants?

[Gaidax]

And a ceasefire agreement is not final, just a timeout, so even if you will claim Ukraine gave up some land, Ukraine will claim it didn't, it's temporarily occupied territory behind temporarily frozen frontlines, war still goes on. And if the war goes on, sanctions stay, which is my point. Unlike Minsk agreements, ceasefire works against Russia this time, they need a way out.

But that's the whole point - ceasefire, even a temporary one would work in Ukraine's favor because time is against Russia, even if they may attempt to take that time to regroup. Of course Ukraine will use term "temporarily occupied" for Crimea and DNR/LNR area that is guaranteed to stay in Russian hands for the time being during that ceasefire.

After all some areas are way too solidly in Russian hands, the most obvious being Crimea that really is not going anywhere for years to come. That's why I keep saying there will be a ceasefire with Crimea in Russian hands and I also say that it is almost certainty same will be for previously occupied areas of Donetsk/Lugansk. So yes - making a ceasefire agreement with those as they are is not ultimately "surrender", it's simply a necessary temporary measure for Ukraine, because they can't really take those back by force right now.

And very obviously that such a ceasefire won't mean sanctions off for Russia, for that actual peace agreement will need to happen and that's where Ukraine will have to talk business about whatever is left occupied.

[PhaelixWW]

How does a statistic take into account resident population growth regardless of citizenship while omitting migrants?

Resident birth and death rates, obviously.

[Mayhem]

Resident birth and death rates, obviously.

But migrants born in the country are still migrants.

[PhaelixWW]

But migrants born in the country are still migrants.

So? You're confusing total births with birth rates. Unless migrant numbers are huge and their birth rates vary wildly from the rest of the country, then they won't have much effect on the country's overall birth rate, just the total births.

Like... it's literally on the graphic I posted.

[Mayhem]

So? You're confusing total births with birth rates. Unless migrant numbers are huge and their birth rates vary wildly from the rest of the country, then they won't have much effect on the country's overall birth rate, just the total births.

Well, it was his argument that an influx of migrants increased natural population growth which omits migrants.

[Corvus]

This Russian fire is definitely deliberate - a Molotov cocktail attack on a recruitment office with at least 7 bottles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRoth...44498933899265

[Rasulis]

Moscow: Israeli ‘mercenaries’ fighting ‘shoulder to shoulder’ with Ukraine’s far-right Azov unit

I see Russia is hellbent on alienating one of the few allies they have. You think I am joking?

Senior Hamas leaders went to Moscow to speak with Russian officials
The Hamas delegation will meet with Russian Foreign Ministry officials and the head of the Chechen Republic.

Seriously. How long before we start seeing Spike ATGMs and Harop Loitering Munitions being used by Ukrainian military?

[PhaelixWW]

Well, it was his argument that an influx of migrants increased natural population growth which omits migrants.

Natural population growth includes only births and deaths. So it excludes migration, but not migrants' deaths and births.

He's not exactly correct, though, as Switzerland's natural growth rate is only responsible for a small portion of it's overall growth rate, and it didn't see a terribly meaningful increase. It's been fluctuating around the same level for the last 40 years.



And here's a study on the difference in birth rates between native Swiss and immigrants. Similar to the previous graphic, you'll notice that the overall line (red) doesn't really change much at all from 1980 on (though this graphic only goes to 2013).




This is all rather off-topic though, so let's just say that both Russia and Ukraine were already looking at a decline in population, and that's before COVID deaths and especially the war causing migration and the death of young adults.

[Edge-]

This Russian fire is definitely deliberate - a Molotov cocktail attack on a recruitment office with at least 7 bottles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRoth...44498933899265

Thank goodness vodka is probably still readily accessible in Russia despite the sanctions.

[Gaidax]

Moscow: Israeli ‘mercenaries’ fighting ‘shoulder to shoulder’ with Ukraine’s far-right Azov unit

I see Russia is hellbent on alienating one of the few allies they have. You think I am joking?

Senior Hamas leaders went to Moscow to speak with Russian officials
The Hamas delegation will meet with Russian Foreign Ministry officials and the head of the Chechen Republic.

Seriously.

"allies"

We just had a Remembrance Day yesterday for all the 22k servicemen who died in wars and operations and vast amount of these was killed by Soviet/Russian arms supplied in vast amounts to our neighbors who got trained by Soviet/Russian instructors on top of it.

The stance is, or at least was neutral, thanks to them calming the fuck down from their wild Soviet times - we have some mutual interests/constraints in Syria.

This bullshit of last few days certainly does not help the relations and I have no idea why they even decided to pursue that path, as if they don't have enough fires to put out as is.

I do expect them to shut the fuck up and calm down, however, because it's just pointless and unnecessary burning of bridges over Lavrov's fuckup. Unless of course they want to do the classic "jews did it all" for local consumption.

[Corvus]

Thank goodness vodka is probably still readily accessible in Russia despite the sanctions.

A Russian giving up perfectly good vodka? You know they are committed then.

[jonnysensible]

So they probably will announce a general mobilisation on may 9th

but im not sure how much throwing fresh meat into the grinder will help.

i suppose it can help the state tackle shortages

[PhaelixWW]

So they probably will announce a general mobilisation on may 9th

Don't think they can do that without a declaration of war, and Russia has specifically stated that they're not going to do that on May 9th.

Not that they're above lying, obviously, but I can't see what lying here would gain them over just staying silent.

I mean, it's likely coming at some point, even if it's not on May 9th, so this is probably all just academic.


Edit: Well, it looks like Russia could actually declare a mobilization without a declaration of war, but they've also specifically stated that they're not going to do that on May 9th.

[Rasulis]

"allies"

We just had a Remembrance Day yesterday for all the 22k servicemen who died in wars and operations and vast amount of these was killed by Soviet/Russian arms supplied in vast amounts to our neighbors who got trained by Soviet/Russian instructors on top of it.

The stance is, or at least was neutral, thanks to them calming the fuck down from their wild Soviet times - we have some mutual interests/constraints in Syria.

This bullshit of last few days certainly does not help the relations and I have no idea why they even decided to pursue that path, as if they don't have enough fires to put out as is.

I do expect them to shut the fuck up and calm down, however, because it's just pointless and unnecessary burning of bridges over Lavrov's fuckup. Unless of course they want to do the classic "jews did it all" for local consumption.

I don't understand why the Russian is entertaining Hamas at a time like this. That will definitely piss off Israel.

[Gaidax]

Don't think they can do that without a declaration of war, and Russia has specifically stated that they're not going to do that on May 9th.

Not that they're above lying, obviously, but I can't see what lying here would gain them over just staying silent.

I mean, it's likely coming at some point, even if it's not on May 9th, so this is probably all just academic.

Who knows what they'll do. Them saying they won't do X means jack shit.

If anything I do tend to think they will throw away the last pretense of "operation" that nobody really buys even in Russia anymore and just get on with it with declaration of war.

[Mayhem]

So they probably will announce a general mobilisation on may 9th

but im not sure how much throwing fresh meat into the grinder will help.

i suppose it can help the state tackle shortages

Don't they have trouble with their logistics and equipment already?

[Gaidax]

I don't understand why the Russian is entertaining Hamas at a time like this. That will definitely piss off Israel.

They want to pressure Israel to get back to neutral stance and it's their way to apply said pressure. There is also some land dispute for local Russian orthodox monastery grounds, with Russia asking to hand over ownership for.

They were supposed to get it a few years back, after we were forced to agree to it to rescue some dumbass out of 8 years jail term that arrived to Russia with few grams of weed - a scapegoat they picked to get exactly that. But local court stopped this dead in the tracks. Putin wrote a letter asking for the issue to be resolved, but it's not a Russian court - govt can't just tell court what to do.

So I bet this is also part of it. Petty, but it's Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naama_Issachar_affair