BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Kallisto]

Precisely. Just one example:

https://next.ft.com/content/941a15da...c-36b487ebd80a

Hey question, could we not have FT used as a source for this. Not doubting the validity of it but damn they keep hiding articles behind paywalls.

[Deleted]

Last year Germany sold over 820000 German cars to the UK. How many do you think they will sell a year to the UK if there is no single market? More or less?

Less ofcurse... but EU is a major export market for UK but UK is a smale export market for EU. So it will be more pain in UK then in EU.

[Felfaadaern Darkterror]

Gilneas built a wall.

[Tinch]

There is no middle - The middle is a lie.
and more importantly, the two years does not cover a post brexit scenario, they are merely the divorce.

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

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Less ofcurse... but EU is a major export market for UK but UK is a smale export market for EU. So it will be more pain in UK then in EU.

I find the idea that Germany will just accept a deal that will cost them billions of euros each year a hard one to believe.

[Deleted]

I find the idea that Germany will just accept a deal that will cost them billions of euros each year a hard one to believe.

Hence they are motivated to make it as painful as possible for UK, even if it costs German more then it cost UK, becuse if UK get a tolerable deal
more EU countries can/will leave and that will cost German more....

[bufferunderrun]

I find the idea that Germany will just accept a deal that will cost them billions of euros each year a hard one to believe.

I don't understand what you are talking about, the UK itself cannot accept the same agreement EU has with swiss cuz it include free movement and paying a share of EU balance two thing that were the core of brexit campaign.

You will probably get a normal trade deal like any other country outside the eu but that isn't the core of the agreement the UK isn't a big manufacturer our economy is based on the financial sector in london, what you need to ask is "will london retain it's role as main financial hub of EU during the negotiations?" that is completely different matter.
Unfortunately in all the diagram peoples had showed about net contribution from Uk to EU the financial sector of london, how it benefited from eu-passport and how much it contributed to UK is never factored.
I'm absolutely scheptical that London will retain that role, imho Frankfurt will become the new eu financial hub and that will be germany compensation for the "not so probable" loss in export.

[Tinch]

I don't understand what you are talking about, the UK itself cannot accept the same agreement EU has with swiss cuz it include free movement and paying a share of EU balance two thing that were the core of brexit campaign.

You will probably get a normal trade deal like any other country outside the eu but that isn't the core of the agreement the UK isn't a big manufacturer our economy is based on the financial sector in london, what you need to ask is "will london retain it's role as main financial hub of EU during the negotiations?" that is completely different matter.
Unfortunately in all the diagram peoples had showed about net contribution from Uk to EU the financial sector of london, how it benefited from eu-passport and how much it contributed to UK is never factored.
I'm absolutely scheptical that London will retain that role, imho Frankfurt will become the new eu financial hub and that will be germany compensation for the "not so probable" loss in export.

I'm saying Germany are set to lose heavily if any trade barriers are erected. Their business have already come out and said they want as close a deal to the current model as possible.

Some of the financial services' UK operations may move to Frankfurt, but that does nothing for the people in Germany who's jobs are directly linked to their trade with the UK. An engineer can't become a banker overnight can they.

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[Triks]

A bit OT - from this politics talk I went and reinstalled EU IV. For those of you that play it, there is a Warcraft mod. It's still in Alpha (it shows, there are things that need ironing it such as nation techs and such) but it's fun at least for the novelty.

[Corvus]

It appears that countries are already lining up to do deals with the UK now that they have voted to brexit. One of the big ones is India which tried 9 years ago to get a deal with the EU but it stalled and has made no progress since.

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-ge...-with-britain/

[Cosmic Janitor]

It appears that countries are already lining up to do deals with the UK now that they have voted to brexit. One of the big ones is India which tried 9 years ago to get a deal with the EU but it stalled and has made no progress since.

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-ge...-with-britain/

Now the UK just finally needs to leave .

[Mayhem]

That is understandably the rhetoric of the EU at present to deter other nations from protesting to leave. We will see if their position softens at all as the negotiations progress.

It's in the EU's interest to reach a mutually agreeable deal. They stand to lose heavily too if they dig their heels in and say all or nothing, Germany in particular.

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Yeah, just like farage, let´s threaten the german workforce to get everything we want! What possibly could go wrong? Oh and also, tell them your plan befor negotiations even start. Yolo.

[Repefe]

It appears that countries are already lining up to do deals with the UK now that they have voted to brexit. One of the big ones is India which tried 9 years ago to get a deal with the EU but it stalled and has made no progress since.

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-ge...-with-britain/

Only 40+ to go to catch up to EU.

[Deleted]

It appears that countries are already lining up to do deals with the UK now that they have voted to brexit. One of the big ones is India which tried 9 years ago to get a deal with the EU but it stalled and has made no progress since.

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-ge...-with-britain/

It's nice that they get offers.
Althou it reminds me more of a "scavenger" situation.

The real question that comes with this:
Will the offers be better than what they got in the EU?
I strongly doubt that.

[Mayhem]

I'm saying Germany are set to lose heavily if any trade barriers are erected. Their business have already come out and said they want as close a deal to the current model as possible.

Some of the financial services' UK operations may move to Frankfurt, but that does nothing for the people in Germany who's jobs are directly linked to their trade with the UK. An engineer can't become a banker overnight can they.

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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...eave-uk-brexit

"For the survey, 404 UK-based and 378 German companies with operations in the UK were confronted with a “best-case” scenario, where Britain would be able to depart the EU as a political entity but still retain access to the common market.

“Given that we worked with such a ‘soft’ scenario, we were surprised to find how clear the pro-membership tendency was across British and German companies,” said Ulrich Schoof, a senior project manager at the foundation."

Yeah, the UK really has nothing to lose, only german workers will lose their jobs.

[MMOFighter]

Germany needs the UK for both political and commerical reasons. We are not leaving, nobody will activate Article 50.

[Mayhem]

It appears that countries are already lining up to do deals with the UK now that they have voted to brexit. One of the big ones is India which tried 9 years ago to get a deal with the EU but it stalled and has made no progress since.

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-ge...-with-britain/

Good luck and all the best.

[Cosmic Janitor]

Germany needs the UK for both political and commerical reasons. We are not leaving, nobody will activate Article 50.

While you are probably right for the wrong reasons, let me say this: "No, please leave. I don't want to suffer your inane self-delusions anymore"

[Tinch]

Yeah, just like farage, let´s threaten the german workforce to get everything we want! What possibly could go wrong? Oh and also, tell them your plan befor negotiations even start. Yolo.

How is the UK wanting to have a free trade deal with the EU threatening the German workforce? Its the actions of the EU that will determine the impact on German jobs.

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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...eave-uk-brexit

"For the survey, 404 UK-based and 378 German companies with operations in the UK were confronted with a “best-case” scenario, where Britain would be able to depart the EU as a political entity but still retain access to the common market.

“Given that we worked with such a ‘soft’ scenario, we were surprised to find how clear the pro-membership tendency was across British and German companies,” said Ulrich Schoof, a senior project manager at the foundation."

Yeah, the UK really has nothing to lose, only german workers will lose their jobs.

Point out where I have said that the UK has nothing to lose, I'll wait.

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It's basically impossible to easily explain the EU, these days politics is all about repeating easy to understand buzzwords, the remainers tried to explain facts but it was considered "scare tactics" when in fact it was the plain truth whereas the leavers basically lied.

Its funny how you don't see the hypocrisy between the first and second half of that sentence.

[ati87]

It's nice that they get offers.
Althou it reminds me more of a "scavenger" situation.

The real question that comes with this:
Will the offers be better than what they got in the EU?
I strongly doubt that.

The exact offer is at this point irrelevant because they can't negotiate right now anyway

The leave camp is arguing right now ''look people want to do trade with us'', this is really simplistic way of looking at things and totally ignores the point the stay campaign was making. The argument always has been ''you get worse deal because you have less leverage, not you don't get any deals '', the second part is made up by the leave side because they can't argue the first statement.

But the real question is right now how many agreements are the leave camp expecting to sign in lets say the next 4 years. First having a ''no tarif'' is a BS thing to argue, you either have it or don't, whats more important is the regulation part which frankly takes allot more time. Do you want crops to use chemical A or Chemical b, this takes ages to agree upon.

But before the UK can even start talking about regulations they need to first figure out their own bloody laws. The entire law-book is mostly based around EU laws and since they are ''leaving'' they first need to figure out on how to rewrite their own laws because if they keep everything EU related then whats the point in leaving again? (right those immigrants)....

[Mayhem]

How is the UK wanting to have a free trade deal with the EU threatening the German workforce? Its the actions of the EU that will determine the impact on German jobs.

Because you don´t just want a free trade deal, you want something better than what you have now and argue that germany will agree because they will lose soooo much they just have to agree.

Point out where I have said that the UK has nothing to lose, I'll wait.

Well it reads as if germany has more to lose than the UK, and i doubt that, very much.