Why it's time to accept the fact that Brexit may never happen

[Independent voter]

US government is hoping brexit doesn't happen. Personally it would be neat to see cause it's a historical event, but it doesn't affect me either way.





http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7148816.html


1. The Conservative government has a small majority of just 12 seats.

2. Prime minister Theresa May is pro-Remain.

3. A majority of MPs are pro-Remain. "Parliament had a clear pro-Remain bias since over 70% of all MPs and over 50% of Conservative MPs supported Remain," according to Morgan Stanley.

4. The government faces a general election in 2020, right after the UK — in theory — leaves the EU.

5. One million UK voters live in EU countries. The vast majority of them will vote against any government that threatens their EU residency status.

6. Reduced access to the single market will hurt the economy. The mere prospect of it is already triggering a recession in the second half of this year.

7. Do the Tories really want to go into the 2020 election defending a policy that hurts the economy and increases unemployment?

8. The EU will not offer the UK a "special deal" featuring full access to the single market but control of UK borders because such a deal would encourage other nations to leave. Nationalist movements, and anti-EU sentiment, are on the rise across Europe.

9. The EU can withdraw the UK's bank "passport" that gives UK financial services firms access to the single market. Do the Tories want to go into 2020 defending a policy that decimates The City, which (according to Morgan Stanley) pays 11% of the UK's entire tax base?

10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible! Not many people know this. But the UK can formally trigger its Article 50 request and then withdraw the request before Brexit actually takes place, if the country wants to.

On those assumptions, May's government is heavily incentivised to drag its feet over the Leave negotiations. It would be much easier for the Tories to be seen to be negotiating an exit, while not actually exiting, than actually leaving Europe. Especially when 2020 comes around.

The new government after 2020 will face a similar choice. Unless that government is an expanded Tory majority dominated by hardcore eurosceptics, then you should expect Brexit to be pushed back even further as "crucial" trade negotiations continue ... indefinitely.

[Deleted]

I would love for the UK to stay in aswell

[Kalis]

The Independent stopped being worth reading when they realised that hardly anybody read it and went on clickbait overdrive.

[TrumpIsPresident]

Yea always awesome to see a government shit on the wishes of its citizens.

Filthy peasants ...its like they think its their government or something.

[Hey There Guys its Metro]

haha awkward, it already happened! Always funny to look back at old threads after their predictions are wrong huh?

[Kalis]

Yea always awesome to see a government shit on the wishes of its citizens.

Filthy peasants ...its like they think its their government or something.

The Government have not done this, just so you know. Everything Theresa May has said points to a Brexit happening.

[Bollocks]

I would like the UK to stay as well, but the people decided and many seem willing to follow. Their decision and they face the outcome of it. Though I'm really hoping they loose their bank "passport", it would make things more interesting.

[Kalis]

haha awkward, it already happened! Always funny to look back at old threads after their predictions are wrong huh?

You are not from the future.

[Blueobelisk]

I though the UK was obligated to leave.

Honestly idk wtf a referendum or how people can be voting for stuff. Pretty sure all I know of is voting for president/senators. Except those Props that talk about gay marriage and weed everyone fantasizes over.

[Kalis]

I though the UK was obligated to leave.

Honestly idk wtf a referendum or how people can be voting for stuff. Pretty sure all I know of is voting for president/senators. Except those Props that talk about gay marriage and weed everyone fantasizes over.

A referendum is basically just an opinion poll, Westminster is who gets to decide if we leave, but unless the MPs in Westminster want to be lynched then they will likely vote to carry out the wishes of the people.

[Aeula]

Well hopefully the EU will kick us out if May, for whatever reason, backs down. Though personally I'm optimistic that we'll leave. It's just a question of how long until it happens.

[TrumpIsPresident]

The Government have not done this, just so you know. Everything Theresa May has said points to a Brexit happening.

Oh I know its still up in the air but I'm just remarking on the efforts already in progress to find ways to either invalidate the vote or ignore it.

[dholland662]

It's possible it wont happen but frankly it is not worth speculating about now.

[Kalis]

Oh I know its still up in the air but I'm just remarking on the efforts already in progress to find ways to either invalidate the vote or ignore it.

Nobody has any reason to suspect the Government are trying to backdoor us to remain in the EU.

File anything the Independent says alongside articles from the Guardian and Telegraph, in the "interesting, but ultimately bollocks" section of your bin.

[Dextroden]

All of those points may be true, but if they don't leave then they just literally spit in the face of all of the voters, the majority of voters, who voted to leave.

Which would be really funny after the amount of shit certain European posters threw about America not being a democracy.

But, in all honesty, I am enjoying watching people try to find ways to get out of the mandate from a referendum.

[Azadina]

Well hopefully the EU will kick us out if May, for whatever reason, backs down. Though personally I'm optimistic that we'll leave. It's just a question of how long until it happens.

Now there's an idea. Let's have an EU wide vote on whether to kick you out immediately, or allow the current clowning around continue.

[Dextroden]

Now there's an idea. Let's have an EU wide vote on whether to kick you out immediately, or allow the current clowning around continue.

Have a vote to prove how salty people are that Exit won? Capital idea.

[Azadina]

Have a vote to prove how salty people are that Exit won? Capital idea.

Why hasn't it been invoked then? What's with the clowning around?

[Dextroden]

Why hasn't it been invoked then? What's with the clowning around?

More than likely the same reason you won't be able to throw up ten grow farms the second marijuana gets decriminalized. There's a lot more than just going "Bye guys".

I guess that's too hard to figure out.

[Kalis]

Why hasn't it been invoked then? What's with the clowning around?

What clowning around? Leaving a union that we have been a part of in one way or another for 40 years, is not like giving up your gym membership.