Europe starts to think the unthinkable: breaking up

[Deleted]

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/0b7b1616-...4?tagToFollow=

The world holds more risks for EU than at any time since end of cold war.



Unveiled on Wednesday, the European Commission president’s document contained no fewer than five scenarios for the EU’s evolution up to 2025: “carrying on”, “nothing but the single market”, “those who want more do more”, “doing less more efficiently” and “doing much more together”.

The white paper’s vagueness was understandable. With elections this year in the Netherlands, Bulgaria, France, Germany and the Czech Republic, few if any governments have an appetite for ambitious initiatives from Mr Juncker.

Still, governments appreciate that the world holds more risks for Europe than at any time since the cold war’s end in 1989-91. Foreign policy strategists in Berlin, Paris and other capitals are re-examining long-held assumptions about the inevitability of EU integration and the permanence of the US-European security alliance.

A “multi-speed EU”, encouraging some countries to integrate more closely than others, is back in fashion. Especially attractive in parts of western Europe, this idea received support on Wednesday from Jean-Marc Ayrault and Sigmar Gabriel, the French and German foreign ministers.

Another idea is to step up defence collaboration, so that Europe becomes a more credible US security partner.

Beyond these relatively cautious proposals, some policymakers and independent analysts are thinking the unthinkable. One example is a report by MacroGeo, a consultancy chaired by Carlo De Benedetti, an elder statesman of Italy’s business community.

The report, “Europe in the Brexit and Trump Era: Disintegration and Regrouping”, arrives at bold conclusions. It asserts that the EU in its present form is most likely going to decompose, even if pro-integrationists such as Emmanuel Macron, the French independent centrist, and Martin Schulz, the German Social Democrat, win this year’s elections.

“By the 2021-22 electoral cycle, the EU might be entering the last five years of its ‘real’ existence,” the report says, allowing that the bloc’s formal legal structures centred on Brussels would probably linger on.

The report contends that, apart from shocks such as Britain’s vote to leave the EU, long-term geopolitical trends are causing the bloc to atrophy. On Europe’s eastern and southern borders, multiple challenges include irregular migration, failing states, terrorism, climate change and Russian revisionism.

Meanwhile, the US is slowly disengaging from Europe to focus on China and the Asia-Pacific. Germany will not replace the US as Europe’s indispensable power: it will never let the eurozone turn into a “transfer union” and, despite speculation about a German nuclear deterrent, its 20th-century past means neither Germany nor its neighbours want it to be Europe’s dominant military power.

Would not the EU’s disintegration unleash “the dangerous nationalist demons of Europe’s past”, as Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister, fears? The MacroGeo authors do not predict anarchic competition among nation-states, but “the emergence of a German geo-economic core”.

This would consist of Germany and countries in its industrial supply chains and comfortable with its monetary and fiscal culture. Disarmingly, they suggest that, “if Italy were to fall apart”, northern Italy might join the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and some Scandinavian countries in this group.

All this implies the 19-nation eurozone’s break-up. Finance ministers and central bankers are adamant that such a step would be devastating for Europe’s economy and global financial stability. However, it is being discussed in circles beyond France’s far-right National Front or Italy’s anti-establishment Five-Star Movement.

Mediobanca, an investment bank that was once the exemplar of northern Italian capitalism, published a controversial report in January which suggested that, in terms of public debt, Italy would not be harmed much by exiting the eurozone.

In a move reflecting frustration at the European Central Bank’s ultra-low interest rates and bond-purchasing programmes, the Dutch parliament voted last month to commission an inquiry into the pros and cons of eurozone membership.

As guides to Europe’s future, these developments deserve close attention — perhaps more close than Mr Juncker’s white paper.

[Berengil]

Feels like this article could be subtitled " From the files of N.S. Sherlock"

A long time ago I read somewhere " Europe is only a geographical expression. It has no political personality." I agree with that sentiment. The dream of a Federal Europe is a dead letter.

OTOH, a free trade zone + mutual defense agreement (to replace NATO if it ever craps out) would basically make Europe a loose confederation; each member nation retaining absolute domestic sovereignty.

[Wyrt]

Just hope the French and Germans don't break up. Don't need another world war because those 2 can't get along.

[Deleted]

Most everyday Europeans love the idea of an united continent without borders between its members and common cultural identity

What they don't like is Brussels lobbyists and closed door trade agreements that bypasses national parliaments and democratic debate. That is what needs to change.

Be confident that europeans will never abandon their ideological fraternity. They just don't want any more neoliberal oligarchs in power

[Berengil]

This is a better outcome, IMO, than having the EU controlled by Brussels and Merkel. I think she has done a lot of damage to the EU (though unintentionally).

Oh yeah, she's been a total jerk about it from the perspective of non-Germans. She is acting with respect to how her actions appear domestically, as she should. She's Germany's chief executive, not president of a Federal Europe.

And that is exactly the contradiction at the heart of the EU. How do you get politicians to cooperate on things that are good for the EU when the people electing those politicians are more concerned with their own lives (as they should be)?

Answer: You don't.

[cubby]

Wow, to think that we'd be moving away from Globalization and unity and back into nationalism. Was hoping we'd unify the globe by 2200.

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Oh yeah, she's been a total jerk about it from the perspective of non-Germans. She is acting with respect to how her actions appear domestically, as she should. She's Germany's chief executive, not president of a Federal Europe.

And that is exactly the contradiction at the heart of the EU. How do you get politicians to cooperate on things that are good for the EU when the people electing those politicians are more concerned with their own lives (as they should be)?

Answer: You don't.

Your statement here is one of the biggest problems with democracy in general. We see micro and macro situations like this every year in the United States. How do you do what's right for the country when local representatives are voted in to do right for the localities.

[Revik]

The way I see it. The countries of the EU are bound loosely together. Similar the US when it was governed by the Articles of Confederation. Either the countries in the EU decide they want to be part of a larger whole giving up their national status or they choose their individual sovereignty as a nation. IMO you cannot have both and there is eventually going to be conflicts that will be irreconcilable without a strong central government.

I actually think that the countries in the EU will ultimately choose to be together because now more than ever is when standing together the countries have the most to benefit. The problem that always arises is money. Who is going to spend more into defense?

[sarahtasher]

I have a very simple question : please, please tell me in what kind of system that you can think off countries like Belgium, Bulgaria or Portugal are not ''bossed around'' by France or Germany.

(Hint : prior to the UE, there was not that much of a freedom of action for most of the current UE members.

[Dalistar]

Looks like Putin is getting everything he wants. That dude is the real life Blofeld.

[Flarelaine]

Most everyday Europeans love the idea of an united continent without borders between its members and common cultural identity

What they don't like is Brussels lobbyists and closed door trade agreements that bypasses national parliaments and democratic debate. That is what needs to change.

Be confident that europeans will never abandon their ideological fraternity. They just don't want any more neoliberal oligarchs in power

I'll take any neoliberal oligarch over our spineless, clueless, shameless government any day.

[Deleted]

The way I see it. The countries of the EU are bound loosely together. Similar the US when it was governed by the Articles of Confederation. Either the countries in the EU decide they want to be part of a larger whole giving up their national status or they choose their individual sovereignty as a nation. IMO you cannot have both and there is eventually going to be conflicts that will be irreconcilable without a strong central government.

I actually think that the countries in the EU will ultimately choose to be together because now more than ever is when standing together the countries have the most to benefit. The problem that always arises is money. Who is going to spend more into defense?

I don't think we would have a lot of problem with stronger central EU government as long as it remains democratic and free of corporation's influence, which is the opposite of what is currently happening.

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I'll take any neoliberal oligarch over our spineless, clueless, shameless government any day.

Those are not mutually exclusive

[Revik]

I don't think we would have a lot of problem with stronger central EU government as long as it remains democratic and free of corporation's influence, which is the opposite of what is currently happening.

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Are you certain about that? Do you think Greece or any other nation under EU is going to comply with harsh austerity plans? And then when they don't comply the leadership could be kicked out by the EU central government for incompetence? Then when the inevitable riots come that the EU army come in to impose marshal law. No problem with doing that?

This is what I mean stronger central government.

[Theodarzna]

Impossible, EU is radiant flawless pearl, it can have no flaws and cannot fail! EU is the future! EU is glorious, revolutionary and eternal! The Commission PROTECTS! /s

In truth, yeah the EU needs to drastically reform itself or face oblivion.

[Deleted]

Are you certain about that? Do you think Greece or any other nation under EU is going to comply with harsh austerity plans? And then when they don't comply the leadership could be kicked out by the EU central government for incompetence? Then when the inevitable riots come that the EU army come in to impose marshal law. No problem with doing that?

This is what I mean stronger central government.

The people pushing for austerity plans are the reason europe is starting to crumble so i wouldn't expect any serious eu reform proposal to include them

[Noradin]

Looks like an article designed to bash Germany under the pretext of being concerned about the EU.

[Teri]

EU expanded way too much and will explode like a balloon that has too much air.

Too much difference between countries, different incomes, different wages, different currencies, and different policies.

Most of all , Different Cultures, even tho they want to homogenize us or get rid of "traditions" ... which is a shame but happened already on the Dutch "Zwarte Piet" for example. After 200 years it's suddenly "racist" since the 2000s.

Not all countries are Euro.

Not all countries are Nato.

Too much differences when they did their last huge eastward expansions. It's almost as if they did it to sit on Russia's border.

Look what Financial problems greece brought over the last years economy wise and that's only 1 country, and Euro/Nato too. (not bashing greece but it's an example)

Russia & countries got rid of their Warsaw Pact, and Nato/EU filled the void.

[Revik]

The people pushing for austerity plans are the reason europe is starting to crumble so i wouldn't expect any serious eu reform proposal to include them

Austerity was just an example. The point I was trying to make what if the EU decides to something extreme like reduce all carbon emissions to 0% in 10 years. Then you have some countries who decide nah we are not going to do that. What happens then? No more funding sent to that nation? Are they kicked out of the EU?

[Wyrt]

Too much differences when they did their last huge eastward expansions. It's almost as if they did it to sit on Russia's border.

????

Finland and Estonia are both developed countries with strong economies that fit well with western Europe. How were they added just to fuck with Russia?

[XDurionX]

Sztyrymytyry nonsense thread again. Just lock already.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Just hope the French and Germans don't break up. Don't need another world war because those 2 can't get along.

It would go down more like a girl fight in the cafeteria at school than a world war. Yeah some hair would get pulled. Some names would the thrown. Some food and dresses would get ruined. But everyone would just be standing around them laughing and enjoying the show. Hell they might even take some Syrians with them.