Brexit - Art 50 on Mar 29th

[Slant]

So, apparently, there are plans to trigger Article 50:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...50-on-29-march

This news is coincided with the bill that EU bureaucrats have calculated:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...-14931671.html

I know, the source is in German. It'll appear in English news sources soon enough, I will amend the OP then.

Basically, Brexit will cost the British around 60 billion, give or take a few depending on who calculates it. Johnson already stated that he'd favour an unregulated, hard Brexit to not pay anything. In a response, the EU Commission has advised the directorates to play such a scenario through and see how the EU would deal with such a hard Brexit.

Thoughts?

[Deleted]

Brexit is still fucking stupid, gets stupider by the day, and everyone who voted for it can DIAF.

[Activi-T]

While we may end up paying for some things after we leave (joint scientific projects, foreign nationals in the EU etc...) I doubt very much we'll be 'stiffed' by the EU after the negotiations end it just isn't in anyone's interest.

The Brexit secretary has already said we'll pay whatever is due as we are a country that follows the rule of law and accept our nation's responsibilities, he doesn't think we'll be punished either. He stated all this in the parliamentary committee meetings he has to report progress to.

[Deleted]

While we may end up paying for some things after we leave (joint scientific projects, foreign nationals in the EU etc...) I doubt very much we'll be 'stiffed' by the EU after the negotiations end it just isn't in anyone's interest.

The Brexit secretary has already said we'll pay whatever is due as we are a country that follows the rule of law and accept our nation's responsibilities, he doesn't think we'll be punished either. He stated all this in the parliamentary committee meetings he has to report progress to.

It's in the EU's best interest to fuck us over though, in order to encourage other countries who may get ideas of leaving to stay. If the UK leaves and ends up better off as a result, then it'll strengthen the Frexit and Gexit and Netherlexit etc supporters all across the EU, which isn't good for the EU as an establishment.

[Pann]

So, apparently, there are plans.....

I'm sorry, I don't believe that for one minute.

[durrtygoodz]

Brexit is still fucking stupid, gets stupider by the day, and everyone who voted for it can DIAF.

Nice democracy m8

[Pann]

It's in the EU's best interest to fuck us over though, in order to encourage other countries who may get ideas of leaving to stay. If the UK leaves and ends up better off as a result, then it'll strengthen the Frexit and Gexit and Netherlexit etc supporters all across the EU, which isn't good for the EU as an establishment.

It isn't. It is in the EU's best interest to seek the best deal(s) for the EU, however it is likely that many will see anything short of the EU bending over backwards for the UK as punishing us.

[Deleted]

Nice democracy m8

I still cant understand how the left cant handle peoples will.

[Deleted]

Nice democracy m8

Thanks. Could say the same about the vote itself where a really narrow margin was secured by plastering a bus with bullshit, driving it around the country, then going back on all the promises within a week, but that would be redundant really now, because something something will of the british people.

It isn't. It is in the EU's best interest to seek the best deal(s) for the EU, however it is likely that many will see anything short of the EU bending over backwards for the UK as punishing us.

For individual member states, perhaps, but the EU as an entity is weaker for every member state who leaves. If the UK ends up better off, they will be more likely to lose more people

[Deleted]

So, apparently, there are plans to trigger Article 50:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...50-on-29-march

This news is coincided with the bill that EU bureaucrats have calculated:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...-14931671.html

I know, the source is in German. It'll appear in English news sources soon enough, I will amend the OP then.

Basically, Brexit will cost the British around 60 billion, give or take a few depending on who calculates it. Johnson already stated that he'd favour an unregulated, hard Brexit to not pay anything. In a response, the EU Commission has advised the directorates to play such a scenario through and see how the EU would deal with such a hard Brexit.

Thoughts?

UK gov want to do whatever they feel like without consequences, but somehow at the same time they wanted to keep the trade benefits of being in the EU. I hope they have to pay for it. They're arrogant and entitled. They still seem to think they're an Empire.

[Deleted]

I'm curious how far they will come within those two years. "Oh we just need five more minutes ! *hopeless laughter*"

[zorkuus]

I still cant understand how the left cant handle peoples will.

I still can't understand why the right had to lie about certain aspects to get people's vote, such as the cost of being in the EU.

No wait... I do understand.

[Activi-T]

It's in the EU's best interest to fuck us over though, in order to encourage other countries who may get ideas of leaving to stay. If the UK leaves and ends up better off as a result, then it'll strengthen the Frexit and Gexit and Netherlexit etc supporters all across the EU, which isn't good for the EU as an establishment.

It isn't good for the EU establishment to attempt to financially cripple a key military power in Europe, especially with how Russia is pushing its influence on the EU's eastern border. They also don't want to be labelled the bad guy when nationalism is on the rise in its member states. The EU won't be held together by force or bullying, it needs to prove itself as a positive force in the world that tempers heightening tensions between the US, China and Russia. That's not even taking into account trade/the economic reasons why a strong EU and UK is better than a weak UK and EU from taking chunks out of each other.

[Pann]

For individual member states, perhaps, but the EU as an entity is weaker for every member state who leaves. If the UK ends up better off, they will be more likely to lose more people

The EU is made up of member states and it will be those states that have to agree on deal with the UK. It is worth bearing in mind that any punishment of the UK will also harm the remaining the EU members and that the situation the UK will find itself in once it leaves the EU is likely to be very different to what Greece would face outside the EU. Unless the UK is completely unrealistic with want it wants from negotiations I don't see the EU punishing us.

[Crispin]

/10 char

[Deleted]

Unless the UK is completely unrealistic with want it wants from negotiations I don't see the EU punishing us.

I mean, Theresa May is nothing if not unreasonable. And as far as the tories are concerned, it doesn't cost them anything either way. They can push for a completley unreasonable deal, if they get it it's all "Look us we're so great we got a good deal!" and if they don't get it, they can blame the EU rather than themselves, and fob it off as "Well, you guys asked for brexit after all! We're just carrying out the will of the people!"

[Deleted]

While we may end up paying for some things after we leave (joint scientific projects, foreign nationals in the EU etc...) I doubt very much we'll be 'stiffed' by the EU after the negotiations end it just isn't in anyone's interest.

The Brexit secretary has already said we'll pay whatever is due as we are a country that follows the rule of law and accept our nation's responsibilities, he doesn't think we'll be punished either. He stated all this in the parliamentary committee meetings he has to report progress to.

You are right, the British will not be punished. But the UK will get a fair deal. That means no more cherry picking.

The UK will no longer be able to opt into the best parts of Europe without the obligations that come with it.

The main part of the next 2 years of negotiations will be about the rights of EU workers in the UK and the rights of UK workers in the EU, thats it.

Then the real shit like trade deals, the irish question, the scottish question will all begin. (and take decades to work out).

An important thing to remember is that the deal reached in the next 2 years is just about how to leave, not anything else and that every single country in the EU has to agree to it, they all have vetos.

Personally I think its impossible. I also think that everyone who voted to leave, voted against the national interest. Hijacked my nationalism (by that I mean, we are fucking English, we never had to define what made us english because it went without saying, we were fucking cool. Englishness was about adaptiveness and inclusivity, it was completely fluid. We needed workers so we brought in the world that spanned our (evil) empire. We made Chicken Tikka Masala a national fucking dish. Adaptive, inclusive. Englishness was so self confident and successful we didnt have to define it rigidly.) Now Britian is weaker than it was before the referendum, it is. And everyone who voted leave isn't just a traitor to our interests, but a traitor to my generation. Small people who can't see the forest through the trees. Who would rather shrink than grow, retreat than advance. Who would have thought the greatest generation would give birth to such cowards., then again we all rebel against our parents right?

[Thalassian Bob]

Brexit is still fucking stupid, gets stupider by the day, and everyone who voted for it can DIAF.

I'll see you in Hell then.

Glad to hear the PM is committing to her March promise. Let's get this show on the road!

I'll be amused if the rumours of a snap election in May are true too. Would be a nice way to utterly crush the Labour party and any belief in Corbyn people still have. It would give Labour and its new leader a good 3/5 years to build the party back into a real opposition before the next election, instead of the shitshow of whiny progressives, grumbling Thatcher-era Red incompetents and anti-Semites that it is right now.

[Noradin]

It's in the EU's best interest to fuck us over though, in order to encourage other countries who may get ideas of leaving to stay. If the UK leaves and ends up better off as a result, then it'll strengthen the Frexit and Gexit and Netherlexit etc supporters all across the EU, which isn't good for the EU as an establishment.

The EU has no need to intentionally "fuck the UK over", the UK did enough of that all on their own already.

[Rend Blackhand]

If the EU was going to try and punish states that leave, why did they insert a process for member states to leave in the treaties?