The Brexit aftermath thread

[Deleted]

sorry i missed that, what was it?

Lets try some reality. This is your no deal.

The day after leaving, the UK will no longer be party to the EU Single Aviation Market. The legal and regulatory framework underpinning UK-EU aviation will disappear overnight, suspending all flights between the UK & the EU.
UK-EU flights could remain grounded for weeks or months until a new UK-EU bilateral aviation agreement is in place.
A suspension of flights to and from EU countries will be disastrous for the UK’s travel and tourism industries (including airports, hotels and restaurants); halt the EU-UK air cargo industry, suspending the import of essential goods such as food and possibly causing shortages; and will be highly damaging to other UK businesses which rely on European travel.
UK airlines will try to limit the damage to their businesses by pursuing air operating licences from other EU countries to keep their intra-EU networks & adjusting their ownership so they can maintain the EU majority-ownership rules of the EU Single Aviation Market. UK Jobs will also move to EU. EU airlines will seize the opportunity to take intra-EU business from UK airlines. The bigger picture is the loss of connectivity to the EU. The Airport Operators Association has warned: “If there is no agreement by the time the UK leaves the EU, the UK’s connectivity will be undermined and its ability to trade will be made significantly more difficult”.

Dover will have to be prepared for a new wave of incoming goods, which will require a hell of a lot of money. Developing a customs system to check goods, building the infrustructure and hiring the staff, in how many years?
Not to mention that when we are a third country foodstuffs have to go via a border inspection post to get into to Europe. There isn't one at Calais. So a number of trucks have to be redirected. Calais does not have the facilities for it anyway and existing ones elsewhere are not big enough.
Since there will be long delays that means fresh produce goes off - thus killing fresh exports.
Meanwhile, Calais will need to make arrangements for customs checks so that will mean diverting lorries to temporary inspection points. The EU is not going to waive inspections and since a number of goods will no longer have valid registrations they cannot even be shipped.
And since all this is going to cost France especially, one way or another, we are going to end up paying for it.
The EU may wish to agree to an implementation period out of self interest, but this doesn't go every far. At best we will have a year to sort out the basics in advance. Since we are interrupting a decades old routine we can expect jams. Only way we won't see an Operation Stack is if authorities meticulously plan it. That means major logistics planning. We'll mess it up (our government would run out of sand in the Sahara trusting them to plan this?).
Since UK companies will have to pay to re-register goods there is a good chance there will be substantially less traffic anyway.
Any new restrictions added into the system, which is already choked and easily disturbed, will have consequences. The first modifications will be temporary but delays will be caused by the construction of more permanent facilities.
If however, there is no implementation provision then it's instant chaos ( I wouldn't rule it out). The EU might very well be minded to let this happen just for the entertainment value. I would. I'm sure there would be immense satisfaction in seeing the UK government coming to terms with the consequences.
If, however, it is managed well then we will see an orderly collapse in living standards over a year or two. That then will become the new normal. Every day will see a new wave of redundancies. It will take years to fix. The first sector that will collapse will be fishing. Then farming.

How do you solve this, how do you stop delays and set up a customs system?

Still waiting for an answer to this beyond 'remoaner'.

lmao at dribbles promoting a war that will never happen and the empire flashbacks.

[Muzjhath]

it's really annoying hearing remoaners cry about brexit.

you have sabotaging tory mps saying that the DExEU not publishing no-deal impact scenarios is "reason to believe no deal is disastrous" yet they dont realise they can't publish those documents. the documents are going to basically paint a picture of a no-deal brexit britain being a GLOBAL force to be reckoned with, if they publish it then the remoaners/EU will do everything in their power to stop it from happening and we'll get the soft-brexit deal that our remoaner PM wants.

Yes, because an economic base of 65.6 million people with what is at this moment a quite decent GDP is set to be a global force stronger than it's neighbor that's both bigger and richer. Not to speak about The US (bigger and richest), China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and several other far larger entities that just based on population is larger markets. The idea of that the UK will be anything but a lesser whipping boy that hangs onto any ropes given is quite silly. Will it have more clout than Russia? Probably, but that's not exactly a lot of clout on an international scale. Let's hope China feels like subsidizing your economy!

basically, no deal is actually really good and you all should just have a bit more faith in britain. remember, we used to be an empire which ruled large sections of the entire globe.

Yes, it was an empire that was globe spanning in the days of mercantilism. That broke apart because of the very thing that is making the UK leave the EU (combined with agreements of "no more empires" after a few world wars)

[Mayhem]

exactly my point.

remoaners want this to happen, when it's a really silly thing to do because no deal is likely the best case scenario for Brexit Britain, and by publishing the documents all you are achieving is sabotaging the Brexit process.

Remoaners want what to happen? That the EU publish impact scenarious? That would hurt the EU more than the UK. How is all of this making any sense to you?

[Vankrys]

And there you have it, finally some sensibility about how dangerous the existential threat to the EU is from a destabilized, trade embargoed, poverty stricken, sunk and starving but crucially nuclear armed and with a powerful military post brexit Britain.

Who would want a nation like that with a track record of invading almost everybody bordering right next door to the EU?

The EU should take the £18 billion "peanuts" full and final settlement on condition of transition terms in the good grace it is offered, they wouldn't want the alternative.

Dude, you have delusion of grandeur.

i don't think that the UK will ever become beligerent and start expansionist war in europe, like the nazi in the last century, but if they do, they would be crushed.

France alone is more than a match to keep the UK at bay, France + Germany will totally defeat the UK, add to that the rest of NATO forces and the UK is completely outmached.

This scenario will never happen. Partly because the british people will not support war against continental EU. They are the closest allies.

[Acidbaron]

I find it is best to ignore those who believe the UK will come out good in this situation based on make believe things like national pride, british superiority or other feelings that belong back in a time where most of the trade was done through colonies.

I am more interested in how the conservative party seems to be cannibalizing itself and wonder who will actually make anything happen on their end if you look at possible May successors you seem to be going from bad to worse you have Johnson who has always been seem as some sort of goofball, a person rather bad in dealing with others especially when it comes to behaving themselves accordingly and this person is already leading talks, beyond that you have Mogg who seems to be caricature pulled from downtown abbey both in appearance and mentality, so world strange to the current world that he might as well be from another planet.

What other candidates are there? Also if May falls can this entire government fall? Is there a chance for another election if that happens? Looking at the mis-management from the conservatives their support is in a constant decline, they had a few lucky breaks since if the election happened after the tragedy in london they would be even further from home.

Meanwhile Europe is drawing up plans for a no deal situation while the UK is still pre-occupied of what a brexit should be like. If you look at the political landscape there you have those in favor of a no deal to those completely set on blocking such a thing.

I also find it amusing that some here claim that they simply will move to another nation, if you are in the UK and a No deal crash happens, since that what it will be a crash, you will not enjoy the liberty of traveling into Europe as you can now unless you already make work of obtaining access to citizenship there already or have a double passport situation. Not to mention if certain things are not in place on the UK end, it is likely that the EU will simply block all traffic, this will undoubtedly happen with goods unless i'm missing another treaty somewhere.

[AeneasBK]

The EU don't have nuclear weapons, the French do, there is a difference.

And don't forget it was those remoaning extremists who warned Brexit would cause ww3, not moderates like me. I know the remoaners have been wrong on absolutely everything up until now, but what if they were right on just this one point? Even our remoaning pro EU chancellor spread sheet Phil is now openly referring to the EU as the enemy.....

The question for the EU is do you feel lucky punk?

With examples every other week of how a ragtag handful of terrorists bring Europe to a standstill imagine what just one well armed and disciplined battalion could do.

I bet they could be in Berlin tomorrow.

Like, you always posted as a mentalist douchebag, at least this post was kinda funny. Bravo.

[Pann]

exactly my point.

remoaners want this to happen, when it's a really silly thing to do because no deal is likely the best case scenario for Brexit Britain, and by publishing the documents all you are achieving is sabotaging the Brexit process.

I am curious as to whether you actually thought that made any sense. If no deal is the best case scenario then why are the Government going through the motions of trying secure a deal and just how would publishing these documents sabotage the Brexit process when according to these very documents the whole process is a waste of time?

Surely if no deal was really the best case scenario it would be better to publish the details and tell the EU 'so long and thanks for all the fish (we will be building our future economy on)'?

[Floopa]

I am curious as to whether you actually thought that made any sense. If no deal is the best case scenario then why are the Government going through the motions of trying secure a deal and just how would publishing these documents sabotage the Brexit process when according to these very documents the whole process is a waste of time?

Surely if no deal was really the best case scenario it would be better to publish the details and tell the EU 'so long and thanks for all the fish (we will be building our future economy on)'?

because we have a lame duck remoaner PM (mrs may) with her remoaner chancellor (hammond).

they want to sabotage the brexit process to line their pockets, because brexit will be putting wealth into the pockets of the poorest families through more of our gdp coming from manufacturing and agriculture.

[Vankrys]

i have a question for trading and economic specialist.

We are all talking about UK-EU trade agreement of goods and services. What about the rest of the world?

I mean, up to now, when uk base company buy and sell goods to the rest of the world, outside the EU, they do so on the cover of trade agreement between the EU and the rest of the world.

So once the UK leaves the EU, it can no longer use those trade agrement and must forge new trade agreement with the rest of the world. We hear all about UK-EU but is the government also working for the continuity of trading with the non EU country.

[Deleted]

because we have a lame duck remoaner PM (mrs may) with her remoaner chancellor (hammond).

they want to sabotage the brexit process to line their pockets, because brexit will be putting wealth into the pockets of the poorest families through more of our gdp coming from manufacturing and agriculture.

Domestic agriulture will be one of the first sectors to collapse. (fishing first). How can our domestic farmers compete when they won't recieve subsudies from the eu anymore, and our market will be flooded with cheaper goods from the US/NZ etc.? (not to mention thier fresh exports will get stuck at dover)

The poor will be hit the hardest by Brexit, the welfare state will have to be put into a skeleton service.

[Floopa]

Domestic agriulture will be one of the first sectors to collapse. (fishing first). How can our domestic farmers compete when they won't recieve subsudies from the eu anymore, and our market will be flooded with cheaper goods from the US/NZ etc.? (not to mention thier fresh exports will get stuck at dover)

The poor will be hit the hardest by Brexit, the welfare state will have to be put into a skeleton service.

proof of this?

if you listen to nigel farage on LBC, he says that fishing is going to be one of our greatest industries post brexit and that's good, we're an island so making use of all of the ocean we have access to makes a lot more sense than capital being generated from remoaner london.

[Deleted]

proof of this?

if you listen to nigel farage on LBC, he says that fishing is going to be one of our greatest industries post brexit and that's good, we're an island so making use of all of the ocean we have access to makes a lot more sense than capital being generated from remoaner london.

You do realise that Farage is a populist right? He lies, like all politicians do.

You can't disparage one set of politicians whilst holding up another as a paragon, they are all the same.

[Floopa]

You do realise that Farage is a populist right? He lies, like all politicians do.

You can't disparage one set of politicians whilst holding up another as a paragon, they are all the same.

all politicians lie yes, but some lie more than others.

nigel farage has been a bastion of truth during the Brexit process and he puts Britain first.

[Deleted]

Seems May her time has ran out and the EU remains firm on not moving forward till the financial aspect of the deal is complete.

The conservatives will probably but boris forward now, where he'll find a position completely broken by infighting he helped orchestrate.

Tick, tock, time is running out of the UK and it won't be long before the hypothetical situation of companies moving to mainland Europe to be a thing as the UK at this rate will have nothing of value left to offer. I guess we might end up taking the UK for committing this type of economical suicide.

If there's one thing that will utterly obliterate the Conservative party next election, it's putting Boris forward.

Everyone wise to his act now, he's not gonna get away with it again.

- - - Updated - - -

all politicians lie yes, but some lie more than others.

nigel farage has been a bastion of truth during the Brexit process and he puts Britain first.

"bastion of truth"

[schwarzkopf]

3 out of 4 British people agree with that

The problem is that the average pleb in the street has literally ZERO idea of the complexities of Brexit and what will happen on a no deal BREXIT.

For example - a whole stack of people living in the UK will suddenly be illegal.
Suddenly a whole stack of goods and services just won't be available.
They won't even be able to drive across the English Tunnel.
From what I understand there are tens of thousands of laws that will just cease to exist on a no deal Brexit.

[Deleted]

The problem is that the average pleb in the street has literally ZERO idea of the complexities of Brexit and what will happen on a no deal BREXIT.

For example - a whole stack of people living in the UK will suddenly be illegal.
Suddenly a whole stack of goods and services just won't be available.
They won't even be able to drive across the English Tunnel.
From what I understand there are tens of thousands of laws that will just cease to exist on a no deal Brexit.

Mate you don't need to provide examples, the highest searched terms on Google in the UK, the day after the Referendum were things like "What is the EU?" and "What does the EU do?", Leavers are retards, they don't care how the EU works, or what we'll lose.

[schwarzkopf]

Leavers are retards, they don't care how the EU works, or what we'll lose.

Here is one example I found:

Day #1 of a no deal BREXIT:
The right to operate services from one airport to another would vanish and the only reliable airline routes would be from the UK to the airline’s home country. In other words, you could fly Ryanair to Dublin, but not to Barcelona, Milan or Paris.

That's right folks - no flights in or out of the UK ... AT ALL. Currently all UK flight agreements (or at least all major ones) are negotiated as part of the EU. They all vanish overnight.

[Pann]

because we have a lame duck remoaner PM (mrs may) with her remoaner chancellor (hammond).

they want to sabotage the brexit process to line their pockets, because brexit will be putting wealth into the pockets of the poorest families through more of our gdp coming from manufacturing and agriculture.

What? That makes even less sense than your previous post.

I feel I may have fallen for a rather unsophisticated wind up.

nigel farage has been a bastion of truth during the Brexit process and he puts Britain first.

Ah, all doubt about your posts being a wind up have been removed, it is all too obvious now.

[Acidbaron]

I find parallels can be drawn between those in the brexit camp and those in the trump camp, people who seem highly susceptible to certain train of thoughts once inside it and all they really do is provide a good platform for those in power, while they more often lower class to middle class get to pay the price for all of it.

But because they believe an external factor is the greatest enemy a sort of mindset of "everything goes in times of war" seems to be applied.

Oh well perhaps, perhaps something good may come out of this disaster. Perhaps the political landscape will have to be redrawn after this wrecking ball finally slows down and things like the house of lords and other very outdated branches of government often tied to monarch influence will be abolished. I find it interesting that people often don't ask the important questions here, such as who stands to really benefit from a brexit while factoring in the worst possible scenario still, if you can answer that question you know what cancer you need to target in the political and higher class.


In any case i really don't see a lot of progress being made since the EU is deadset on first dealing with the financial side of it all, the money before starting to talk about anything else despite UK's constant effort to move that further down the line. Can't say i blame the EU, best to deal with the hardest issue first instead of wasting time on easy deals, but i know why the UK wants that. The UK politicians want easy wins, much like Trump, easy insignificant wins to go back to their base and show them they are doing something and considering how easy that base was to influence before they'll need to be told the information in pre-chewed form of if something is a win or a loss, while in reality these deals are often both.

[zealo]

Fishing is going to be one of your greatest industries? Fucking fishing? Do you have any idea about what you are saying?

Id be surprised if had much of a clue about how national economies work at all, tbh. Otherwise he wouldn't be here promoting a no deal scenario as a good thing for Britain.