Republican Tax Plan Revealed

[Shadowferal]

Isn't this just flaming or trolling at this point? I mean a modicum of research or common sense is sufficient to realize how ignorant and hateful this stance is.

Surely this can't be genuine.

I kinda ignored the post myself...
Someone this genuinely ignorant of reality has to be either in pain, or not real to begin with.

[Mittens]

So, apparently the GOP has put a 20% excise tax on goods from puerto rico. This doesn't help the rich in any way, its sure as fuck not helping the poor, it does nothing but punish Puerto Rico further. This is just flat out evil.

[Fenixhart]

So...After all that last ditch Hail mary even the rich are getting screwed of their prize?

[Seiklis]

So...After all that last ditch Hail mary even the rich are getting screwed of their prize?

Nah, they'll just junk the 1.5T rule and eliminate it

[Rasulis]

That was to be my next point. People are using anecdotal evidence (often based on selective/old memories), "How does this effect me now" mentality and Op Eds or emotive videos when considering this tax bill. Someone might remember a health insurance amount of $1000 where in reality it might have been a $100 increase from $500 to $600. That's the way the mind works. Something happens and you get angry at the time and remember it a certain way but the reality is far from the truth.

On the how does this effect me now side, it's easy to look at it as a tax break. But that doesn't take into account any increases in insurance and also it doesn't look how what effect it will have in 5 and in 10 years from now. It doesn't look at what the effect will be on the economy either.

On the Op Ed side, people are looking at op eds all over the show which tend to focus on one thing or another. Almost everyone has a stake in one way or another, especially people who write op eds. Hopefully now that the bull is out in full, we will be able to get some more independent analysis. Short and long term. Most of the independent analysis I have seen so far (economists, centrist think tanks, etc) has been very negative so I am not holding my breath on that changing much.

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They almost doubled the standard but removed the personal exemptions. So for example, a family of 4 would have their standard deduction increased by $11300 but lose $16200 from their personal exemptions. Only people who have no kids are better off on that side. The moment it's 2 people with 1 kid, they start losing out. The tax rate decrease saves them from losing out overall but that only works for people who weren't itemizing their deductions. The beauty, for the GoP, of the tax rate change is that rich people benefit but a much bigger margin than people lower down on the income scale because the tax rate changes are almost offset by the deduction changes for lower income people but the tax rate changes for the rich people far outweigh their deduction changes.

They increased the child tax credit to compensate for the loss of personal exemption.

[Thekri]

So, apparently the GOP has put a 20% excise tax on goods from puerto rico. This doesn't help the rich in any way, its sure as fuck not helping the poor, it does nothing but punish Puerto Rico further. This is just flat out evil.

Well, Puerto Rico manufacturing is based on some bizarre tax loopholes to begin with, since it is considered both foreign and domestic simultaneously, allowing companies to dodge huge amounts of taxes, closing those loopholes isn't a bad move. On the other hand, that is literally all Puerto Rico has going for it right now, and the timing is extremely suspicious, Puerto Ricans are Americans, and ones that don't have votes in Congress, so this is a pretty brutal takedown to what they have left for an economy.

We really need to give Puerto Rico something before we just take what they have.

[Edge-]

So, apparently the GOP has put a 20% excise tax on goods from puerto rico. This doesn't help the rich in any way, its sure as fuck not helping the poor, it does nothing but punish Puerto Rico further. This is just flat out evil.

Wonder how that will impact hospital, and in turn patient, costs given that a lot of medical supplies are produced there.

[Masark]

We really need to give Puerto Rico something before we just take what they have.

They have given Puerto Rico something. Specifically, digitus impudicus. Or more likely, digitī.

[Gray_Matter]

They increased the child tax credit to compensate for the loss of personal exemption.

But both I and my wife used to get personal exemptions but we aren't children. It's just shuffling numbers so that the majority of people see a decrease in tax now. No one item offsets another one. Some people will be worse off because they can't claim itemized deductions. The majority who don't will be better off for now but that will change because the changes linked to inflation.

The point about rich people benefiting more than the middle class is that the fixed figures that we are talking about here are minuscule compared to the changes that the rich will see with their tax rate change. The rich also benefit over and above because of the corporate rate change. So a thumb suck would say that something like 80%-90% of the benefits of the tax cut will go to the rich. It's not a middle class tax cut and to call it that is disingenuous. There are a number of ways that it could have been done that would benefit the middle class much more.

The latest cook political report has a funny titbit. The democrats are the tax and spend party and the republicans are the borrow and spend party. That seems to be very apt right now.

[Breccia]

Reuters weighs in on what the GOP used to be worried about.

U.S. tax bill adds to debt need as interest costs weigh

A U.S. tax overhaul will increase the government’s need to issue more Treasuries as interest costs on the country’s debt become a larger drain on the budget.

The U.S. Senate on Saturday approved a tax rewrite, which the Congressional Budget Office has estimated would double the deficit over the coming decade to around $2.8 trillion.

That would add to the worsening debt outlook, which is already hurt as an aging population boosts healthcare and retirement spending.

Increases in issuance could push up bond yields, adding to the cost of carrying the debt.

“The debt continues to grow faster than the economy,” said Susan Irving, a senior advisor for debt and fiscal issues at the nonpartisan U.S. Government Accountability Office in Washington.

We'll get back to that bolded part in a minute.

Rising debt costs will leave less room for other forms of government spending, absent unpopular changes such as tax hikes.

“It increases the government’s interest cost, it puts pressure on other parts of the budget, and it limits the ability to respond to unforeseen events,” Irving said.

U.S. net interest costs rose to $274 billion in fiscal 2017, the most on record, according to the government’s fiscal 2018 budget.

They are projected to increase to $528 billion by 2022, which would account for 10.9 percent of total outlays, up from 6.8 percent this year, the budget shows, making interest costs the fastest-growing major expense over that period.

The proposed tax changes will add to the already worsening picture.

“I wouldn’t say that this is a game changer per se in the trajectory of the increase in the debt outstanding, but it’s definitely going to contribute to more Treasury issuance,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York.

Total debt held by the public is forecast to rise to $17.52 trillion in 2022, from $14.92 trillion in fiscal 2017.

Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the path of federal debt “should keep people awake at night.”

Pressure is intensifying to fix the country’s debt problem.

The United States needs to raise its debt limit in the coming months, and if it does not, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. Treasury would run out of cash to pay its bills by late March or early April.

Congress has a notional Dec. 8 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, but the U.S. Treasury can take emergency measures to delay the drop-dead date.

By now, everyone's familiar with the $1 trillion the Senate said the tax cut for the rich would add to the debt, the very same tax cut for the rich they promised would be revenue neutral. That would take a decade.

Oh, and quick aside before continuing, while Trump and the GOP insist this will be revenue neutral -- despite the Senate later admitting no it isn't, and Trump providing no evidence stronger than unicorn farts -- WaPo asked 38 economists what they thought. 37 of them said it would increase the debt. The 38th one misread the question. And, quite frankly. almost all estimates published in the last, say, two months between the two plans, were over $1 trillion. But let's estimate low, you'll see why in a minute.

Okay, back to the math.

"Yawn."

Shut up, this is important. The CBO has a lot of reports, including this one from Jan 24th which specifically says it does not include any new policies (Trump hadn't worked a day yet, remember, he took that weekend off). On page 89, you can see their forecast publicly-held debt in 2027 is predicted to be $24.893 trillion. Incidentally, that Jan 24th report is a sobering read. The CBO damn near begs for closing the deficit.

Anyhow, that's up from now by, in a lucky coincidence, almost exactly $10 trillion. Now, let's add a trillion to that. The tax cut for the rich increases the increase of the debt, by ten full percent -- roughly 1% per year. Sort of. The APR is 0.953% if you want to get technical.

"I really don't."

Fine, 1% it is. There are currently no serious reports that the tax cut for the rich will cause the GDP to increase by 1% per year. The highest so far, is the Senate (again) saying 0.8%, although non-Senate estimates of 0.5% and 0.3% at first and dropping fast aren't exactly hard to find. And it's not exactly hard to argue tax cuts don't have an effect on the GDP at all.

But anyhow, even using the rosiest debt addition (the Senate) and the greatest GDP increase (the Senate again, huh, what a coincidence) the debt grows by a rate faster than the economy keeps up.

And the Senate's JCT used dynamic scoring. So that argument's pre-emptively defeated.

"But wait! You just used publicly held debt. Shouldn't you be using total debt?"

$20 trillion now, growing to $30 trillion in 10 years. Nothing changes.

And finally, back to what Irving said, namely, that covering the debt growing by more than the economy is growing, requiring more bonds to be sold to the public (or China, erg) and, by the Law of Supply and Demand, requiring to offer a higher yield in order to sell more bonds. Which, in turn, means the government has to pay out even more for them, further widening the gap. That's what the blue graphs above show: dramatically increased payments into interest alone, which are
a) mandatory
b) don't get the US anything in return, unlike infrastructure, health care, or military funding.

[Deleted]

Congratulations lower and middle class Americans! You finally got your tax breaks on your private jets, golf courses and private school tuitions! The great cuckening.

[Wyrt]

Congratulations lower and middle class Americans! You finally got your tax breaks on your private jets, golf courses and private school tuitions! The great cuckening.

And for estates over $11 million!

[Orlong]

So, apparently the GOP has put a 20% excise tax on goods from puerto rico. This doesn't help the rich in any way, its sure as fuck not helping the poor, it does nothing but punish Puerto Rico further. This is just flat out evil.

Maybe Puerto Rico should stop trying to get all the benefits of being a state while refusing to become one. When they vote to become a state and start paying US income tax, then this kind of thing wont happen

[Wyrt]

Maybe Puerto Rico should stop trying to get all the benefits of being a state while refusing to become one. When they vote to become a state and start paying US income tax, then this kind of thing wont happen

They did vote to become a state...

[Xeones]

They did vote to become a state...

You should know... Orlong has his own reality.

[Jtbrig7390]

Maybe Puerto Rico should stop trying to get all the benefits of being a state while refusing to become one. When they vote to become a state and start paying US income tax, then this kind of thing wont happen

They did vote to become a state and a overwhelming majority voted yes.

Congress is the ones dicking them over on becoming a state. Not surprised you don't have a clue on what you are talking about......again.

[Mittens]

Maybe Puerto Rico should stop trying to get all the benefits of being a state while refusing to become one. When they vote to become a state and start paying US income tax, then this kind of thing wont happen

And? That is no reason to punish them just because.

[Breccia]

Congratulations lower and middle class Americans! You finally got your tax breaks on your private jets, golf courses and private school tuitions! The great cuckening.

And for estates over $11 million!

And those cruise ships and oil companies you own!

[Kujako]

And those cruise ships and oil companies you own!

And your mega-churches can now endorse political candidates and pay for political campaigns.

[Felya]

And those cruise ships and oil companies you own!

Wealthy like Trump need to start charging people for vicariously living through them. Otherwise, it’s a massive hand out to the delusional...